Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[ozkisses]

The final stats that I would like to see is on how many who are experts on everything COVID19 actually were.

 

[the54thvoid]

Stats last Tuesday (deaths)

USA - 56803
Italy - 26997
Spain - 23521
France - 23293
UK - 21092


This is one week later.

USA - 70129 -- 23% up ---> was 40%, so good drop.
Italy - 29079 -- 8% up ---> was 14%
UK - 28734* -- 36% up ---> was 31%
Spain - 25613 -- 9% up ---> was 13%
France - 25201 -- 8% up ---> was 18%


* UK figure now includes care homes deaths (not included last week).

Looking at stats it says the US has 950,000 active cases . I'm pleased to announce in the spirit of our old alliance, the UK comes second, IN THE WORLD, at 161,000 - which is crazy .

The UK is doing really poorly and it must be said, very early on, we were praised by some for doing well. We aint.

 

[ozkisses]

The UK is doing really poorly and it must be said, very early on, we were praised by some for doing well. We aint.

I read a poll online which said a lot of people in the UK are going to continue with staying at home after the restrictions get lifted for a bit longer. The news for us says that the majority are doing a great job of doing what is deemed right at this time. Imagine the numbers of deaths if you hadn't chosen to isolate at home.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Their data ends at April 4 before the lockdown had any affect. We need another month of data to make that claim. Even then, in places like NYC, it didn't slow down much.


I think the protests are mostly driven by people's inability to sustain themselves financially. Most people don't have much more than a month's worth of savings which has been exhausted.


Consider what I said above (financially and excess deaths) when reading this:

Three family members charged in shooting death of security guard who told a customer to put on a face mask | CNN

Three family members have been charged in the killing of a security guard who told a customer at a Michigan Family Dollar store to wear a state-mandated face mask, officials said on Monday.

edition.cnn.com

No access to masks -> need food -> go to store to get food -> get denied -> get violent because of desperation -> people die that likely wouldn't have without quarantine -> excess deaths climb.


It's surging around here again because of meat packers:

The Human Cost of Cheap Meat Gets Higher in the Pandemic

Working in a processing plant has always been grueling and dangerous. With Covid-19, it’s even scarier.

www.bloomberg.com

I thought you're unemployed people were getting some benefits as well as the cheque from the government?

 

[Vayra86]

I read a poll online which said a lot of people in the UK are going to continue with staying at home after the restrictions get lifted for a bit longer. The news for us says that the majority are doing a great job of doing what is deemed right at this time. Imagine the numbers of deaths if you hadn't chosen to isolate at home.

A poll with data from that moment in time...if there is one thing I have learned it is that the sentiment of the public opinion changes almost daily. If my country's lockdown is any guide, revisit that idea two weeks from now, or when the curve starts flattening. Im sure the outcome will be radically different.

Its a very human thing. If the threat is not direct or acute, it is easy to ignore it.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

I thought you're unemployed people were getting some benefits as well as the cheque from the government?

They are but not everyone qualifies and they've been really slow to actually disperse it. Basically you only qualify for unemployment insurance if your employer was paying for unemployment insurance on your behalf.

Even then, the unemployment rate is like 75% of normal wage. People living paycheck to paycheck, that 25% difference puts them in the red.


It's a culture thing too. The vast majority of Americans loath idleness.

 

[EarthDog]

They are but not everyone qualifies and they've been really slow to actually disperse it. Basically you only qualify for unemployment insurance if your employer was paying for unemployment insurance on your behalf.

Even then, the unemployment rate is like 75% of normal wage. People living paycheck to paycheck, that 25% difference puts them in the red.


It's a culture thing too. The vast majority of Americans loath idleness.

Assuming I understand this right......

Don't forget about the extra $600 /week through the end of July.... For many, especially in the lower income brackets, they can actually take home more than what they make normally (do I go back to work or make more doing nothing?????)....in Ohio, this nearly doubles the maximum amount you can take home.

 

[the54thvoid]

It's a culture thing too. The vast majority of Americans loath idleness.

Yeah, that's not an American thing, by the way. You find most cultures despise sloth.



And just found an excellent piece from the BBC about death rates and the reporting of it. It's pretty robust and as good as it gets.

A snippet:

What's wrong with the daily figures?

The definition changes across countries - some countries only include hospital deaths, some include care homes too. Even though Italy and the UK both count deaths among people who have tested positive for coronavirus, they have different testing regimes, meaning they catch different deaths. When every country counts things differently, statisticians turn to a different measure - with a simpler definition.

All-cause mortality

If you look at all deaths in a country, irrespective of cause, you will capture the deaths missed by lab testing, the misdiagnosed deaths and the deaths caused by the strain the virus puts on our society. Of course, you'll capture the heart attacks and car accidents that might have happened anyway. But the total number of deaths registered in a week normally follows a predictable pattern.

It has shot up since the end of March, running far higher than the previous weeks or what would be expected at this time of year. These extra deaths are largely attributed to the pandemic. And it's these extra or “excess” deaths, the difference between the number we normally see and what we're seeing at the moment, that statisticians use to capture the true toll of the coronavirus.

Adjust for age

You also need to account for how old the population is because the coronavirus is most dangerous to older people. So you'd expect to see more excess deaths in Italy, where the average age is 47, than in Ireland, where it's 37.

Once you've done that calculation, known in the jargon as "excess all-cause mortality adjusted for age", then you get a clearer picture of how different nations are doing.

Coronavirus: Can you compare the UK with Italy?

The UK has passed Italy's death toll but it's hard to make direct comparisons.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[rtwjunkie]

Here we go, May 5th for Louisiana:

29,996 cases (28,711 on May 1st)
2,042 deaths (1,802on May 1st)
1,512 hospitalized 1,607 on May 1st)
194 on ventilators (230 on May 1st)
188,231 tests have been conducted (168,251 on May 1st) -in a population of 4.6 million

20,316 Presumed recovered (17,303 on May 1st) confirmed this stat is only being updated weekly.

Of note is that in New Orleans, only 18 new cases were recorded in the last 24 hours.

There are a ton of good charts and graphs here:

Louisiana COVID numbers: Data on cases, deaths, hospitalizations, vaccines

Editor's Note: Due to changes in the Louisiana Department of Health's data page, there might be a delay in data updating on this page.

www.nola.com

 

[Tatty_Two]

Here we go, May 5th for Louisiana:

29,996 cases (28,711 on May 1st)
2,042 deaths (1,802on May 1st)
1,512 hospitalized 1,607 on May 1st)
194 on ventilators (230 on May 1st)
188,231 tests have been conducted (168,251 on May 1st) -in a population of 4.6 million

20,316 Presumed recovered (17,303 on May 1st) confirmed this stat is only being updated weekly.

Of note is that in New Orleans, only 18 new cases were recorded in the last 24 hours.

There are a ton of good charts and graphs here:

Louisiana COVID numbers: Data on cases, deaths, hospitalizations, vaccines

Editor's Note: Due to changes in the Louisiana Department of Health's data page, there might be a delay in data updating on this page.

www.nola.com

Lower hospitalisations and those on ventilators, lets hope that is a progressive downward trend

 

[dragontamer5788]

I was expecting this to happen later. But New York is already proving my case correct.

New York reports over 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at nursing homes and adult care facilities

At least 4,813 people have died from COVID-19 in the state's nursing homes since March 1, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo's administration.

www.cbsnews.com

New York just increased its death count by 1700, because of all the COVID19 nursing home deaths that were previously uncounted. We are UNDERcounting deaths by an order of magnitude, and these things only become obvious after weeks, or months, of analysis.

-------

Mortality rates are almost always adjusted upwards. We have a habit of undercounting deaths in this country initially.

Audrey Waters, a spokeswoman for Isabella Geriatric Center, said in an email last week, "Isabella, like all other nursing homes in New York City, initially had limited access to widespread and consistent in-house testing to quickly diagnose our residents and staff. This hampered our ability to identify those who were infected and asymptomatic, despite our efforts to swiftly separate anyone who presented symptoms."

This country did not have enough tests to prove COVID19 in all the people who probably died of it. Sad part is, this country is still facing a shortage of tests, making it difficult to "prove" COVID19 in all of the suspected COVID19 deaths. Expect the numbers to be continuously adjusted upwards as we get access to more tests and can prove the obvious.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

And again, I point to CDC's recommendations:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID19 being the underlying cause more often than not.

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.

They're telling doctors to over-report it.

Minnesota doctor blasts 'ridiculous' CDC coronavirus death count guidelines

Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota family physician who is also a Republican state senator, told "The Ingraham Angle" Wednesday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) guidelines for doctors to certify whether a patient has died of coronavirus are "ridiculous" and could be...

www.foxnews.com

Jensen then told Ingraham that under the CDC guidelines, a patient who died after being hit by a bus and tested positive for coronavirus would be listed as having presumed to have died from the virus regardless of whatever damage was caused by the bus.

What that 1700 represents is going back through all of the death certificates and looking for any symptoms that align with SARS-CoV-2 and changing them to COVID-19 even if, for example, it was just the flu (very similar symptoms). But there's another fly in the ointment there:

"I’ve never been encouraged to [notate 'influenza']," he said. "I would probably write 'respiratory arrest' to be the top line, and the underlying cause of this disease would be pneumonia ... I might well put emphysema or congestive heart failure, but I would never put influenza down as the underlying cause of death and yet that’s what we are being asked to do here."

Which also explains the underreporting of flu deaths which is discussed in this opinion post:

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates

blogs.scientificamerican.com

TL;DR:

 

[dragontamer5788]

Emergency Preparedness and Response

Information for the public and health professionals on how to stay safe during public health emergen

emergency.cdc.gov

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Exactly, opinion, not "precision and specificity" which has been the standard...until now.


Example... some one tests positive for COVID-19 and "respiratory arrest" is the cause of death which was caused by bilateral pneumonia. Simply writing down COVID-19 doesn't provide "precision and specificity" while "respiratory arrest" and "pneumonia" does. This person died because O2 saturation fell below lethal levels. In rare cases, COVID-19 can kill via cardiac arrest...

Physicians, scientists and physician-scientists connect dots between heart disease, potential for worse COVID-19 outcomes - Mayo Clinic News Network

ROCHESTER, Minn. ― People with certain heart diseases may be more susceptible to worse outcomes with COVID-19, but the reason why has remained unknown. New research from Mayo Clinic indicates that in patients with one specific type of heart disease ― obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM)...

newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org

...simply writing COVID-19 doesn't tell statisticians by which method it killed.

Further complicating things, just writing "COVID-19" as an underlying cause because they tested positive is also potentially erroneous, for example, if they were hit by a bus (as the Minnesota doctor gave as an example). The sudden acceleration from the impact leading to internal organ damage and hemorrhaging is what caused the death. COVID-19 had nothing to do with it.

It makes more sense to me to stick to "precision and specificity" then associate symptoms on the death certificates with "probable COVID-19" in analysis. COVID-19 should only appear on the death certificates if it was certain (e.g. that extraordinary bilateral pneumonia presents and the patient dies from respiratory arrest).

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 26182 confirmed infected --- 480 more
- 2076 recovered --- 333 more
- 1089 fatalities --- 15 more
- 262041 suspected cases --- 3553 more
- 470234 tests taken --- 43398 more --- hadn't been updated in 3 days, hence the abnormal increase
- 2492 waiting for test results --- 179 less
- 24579 under watch from authorities --- 487 less
- 838 hospitalized --- 20 more
- 136 in ICU --- 2 more

Both hospitalized and ICU numbers increased for the 1st time since April 16th: this worries me because not enough time has elapsed since the lowering of lockdown's restrictions for it's effects to show up on our daily numbers and yet we're already experiencing increases, albeit small, in theses numbers.

 

[xman2007]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

View attachment 153993 View attachment 153994

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 26182 confirmed infected --- 480 more
- 2076 recovered --- 333 more
- 1089 fatalities --- 15 more
- 262041 suspected cases --- 3553 more
- 470234 tests taken --- 43398 more --- hadn't been updated in 3 days, hence the abnormal increase
- 2492 waiting for test results --- 179 less
- 24579 under watch from authorities --- 487 less
- 838 hospitalized --- 20 more
- 136 in ICU --- 2 more

Both hospitalized and ICU numbers increased for the 1st time since April 16th: this worries me because not enough time has elapsed since the lowering of lockdown's restrictions for it's effects to show up on our daily numbers and yet we're already experiencing increases, albeit small, in theses numbers.

Wow Portugal may yet exceed the UK in total number of fatalities going by those numbers, praying you and all your family and friends stay safe buddy

Edit ignore that, I was looking at the wrong stats

 

[rtwjunkie]

Updated stats of Louisiana's Race, Sex and Underlying conditions stats. Hypertension still reigns supreme for the condition most held by those with COVID-19 designated deaths.

Assuming I understand this right......

Don't forget about the extra $600 /week through the end of July.... For many, especially in the lower income brackets, they can actually take home more than what they make normally (do I go back to work or make more doing nothing?????)....in Ohio, this nearly doubles the maximum amount you can take home.

In Louisiana it will help, but when you add it to what was the single lowest maximum unemployment payments in the country, it's still a bit short.

EDIT: Wait, I must correct myself. Our $247 weekly maximum is beaten by our neighbor, Mississippi at $235. Mississippi and Louisiana are always competing among the worst stats for everything to see who can be the worst. I jest, but it sure seems that way.

 

[EarthDog]

In Louisiana it will help, but when you add it to what was the single lowest maximum unemployment payments in the country, it's still a bit short.

Yep. It varies by state. Ohio is $480 /week (max) normally. That's less than 25K. The $600 on top of that puts it over 50K /year.

You guys are ~$250 /week... the $600 on top of that puts it just under 45K... plenty for most to live (that $250 though...yikes).

 

[Tatty_Two]

I was expecting this to happen later. But New York is already proving my case correct.

New York reports over 1,700 previously undisclosed deaths at nursing homes and adult care facilities

At least 4,813 people have died from COVID-19 in the state's nursing homes since March 1, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo's administration.

www.cbsnews.com

New York just increased its death count by 1700, because of all the COVID19 nursing home deaths that were previously uncounted. We are UNDERcounting deaths by an order of magnitude, and these things only become obvious after weeks, or months, of analysis.

-------

Mortality rates are almost always adjusted upwards. We have a habit of undercounting deaths in this country initially.



This country did not have enough tests to prove COVID19 in all the people who probably died of it. Sad part is, this country is still facing a shortage of tests, making it difficult to "prove" COVID19 in all of the suspected COVID19 deaths. Expect the numbers to be continuously adjusted upwards as we get access to more tests and can prove the obvious.

That's what the UK was doing up until 10 days ago, only counting deaths in hospital settings, to be fair it's what most countries are doing but it is a false picture, 10 days ago when the UK included deaths in the home, residential care settings etc our numbers went immediately up by almost 20% which is why I have my doubts that at the end of all of this, whenever that may be we won't have the highest fatality rate in Europe.

 

[the54thvoid]

That's what the UK was doing up until 10 days ago, only counting deaths in hospital settings, to be fair it's what most countries are doing but it is a false picture, 10 days ago when the UK included deaths in the home, residential care settings etc our numbers went immediately up by almost 20% which is why I have my doubts that at the end of all of this, whenever that may be we won't have the highest fatality rate in Europe.

I think only France was counting care home deaths.

 

[dragontamer5788]

That's what the UK was doing up until 10 days ago, only counting deaths in hospital settings, to be fair it's what most countries are doing but it is a false picture, 10 days ago when the UK included deaths in the home, residential care settings etc our numbers went immediately up by almost 20% which is why I have my doubts that at the end of all of this, whenever that may be we won't have the highest fatality rate in Europe.

Agreed. I don't "believe" in death counts anymore. It is clear that everyone (China, Korea, UK, Italy, France, USA) is undercounting, and we're all under-counting to differing degrees. We cannot effectively compare our countries against each other under these conditions.

Which to be fair: there's no point to compare our countries against each other. Its more important to get a consistent death count such that we can tell if the disease is getting better or worse. The direction of the stats is far more important than getting a precise number right now.

Example... some one tests positive for COVID-19 and "respiratory arrest" is the cause of death which was caused by bilateral pneumonia. Simply writing down COVID-19 doesn't provide "precision and specificity" while "respiratory arrest" and "pneumonia" does. This person died because O2 saturation fell below lethal levels. In rare cases, COVID-19 can kill via cardiac arrest...

Please read the slides. https://emergency.cdc.gov/coca/ppt/2020/Final_COCA_Call_Slides_04_16_2020.pdf

They actually include this example directly in the presentation.

What's going on right now, is that a lot of deaths will have "Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome" or "Pneumonia" as a cause of death, but without COVID19 because the doctor isn't able to prove it (because test kits still are being rationed in this country).

 

[Tatty_Two]

UK are not under counting now, as I said, we were until 10 days ago, media pressure along with a significant dose of Care sector workers speaking out finally led to full transparency, I can't and won't speak for any other country but I know why they originally only used deaths in hospitals as the figure and that was simply because at that point the only people consistently tested were when they got admitted to hospital as a serious case and at that time for right or wrong (probably for wrong) they were the only absolute certainties.

 

[dragontamer5788]

UK are not under counting now, as I said, we were until 10 days ago, media pressure along with a significant dose of Care sector workers speaking out finally led to full transparency, I can't and won't speak for any other country but I know why they originally only used deaths in hospitals as the figure and that was simply because at that point the only people consistently tested were when they got admitted to hospital as a serious case and at that time for right or wrong (probably for wrong) they were the only absolute certainties.

I can't speak for the UK, but it wasn't until recently that US doctors recognized that COVID19 may cause blood-clots and strokes. And only recently we've learned about kidney / liver damage as a result.

This disease is a learning process. As doctors learn what the disease can do, they'll get better and better at spotting it. We're necessarily undercounting deaths due to the uncertainty and poor understanding of the disease. Now that blood-clots / strokes are seen as a sign of COVID19, US doctors are now better informed with regards to filling out the death certificates... but that means that earlier death certificates probably missed some deaths ("Stroke" would be the listed cause of death, but the doctors may have missed that the stroke was caused by COVID19).

EDIT: Fortunately, the statisticians of our respective health agencies will figure this out over the next year as they analyze the death certificates and numbers. But it will take months before the numbers are updated and we learn the truth.

 

[the54thvoid]

Agreed. I don't "believe" in death counts anymore. It is clear that everyone (China, Korea, UK, Italy, France, USA) is undercounting, and we're all under-counting to differing degrees. We cannot effectively compare our countries against each other under these conditions.

Which to be fair: there's no point to compare our countries against each other. Its more important to get a consistent death count such that we can tell if the disease is getting better or worse. The direction of the stats is far more important than getting a precise number right now.



Please read the slides. https://emergency.cdc.gov/coca/ppt/2020/Final_COCA_Call_Slides_04_16_2020.pdf

They actually include this example directly in the presentation.

View attachment 154008

What's going on right now, is that a lot of deaths will have "Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome" or "Pneumonia" as a cause of death, but without COVID19 because the doctor isn't able to prove it (because test kits still are being rationed in this country).

This is actually very relevant to the ongoing discussion. It's like AIDS. You don't die of AIDS - you die of something that AIDS brings about (ironically, often pneumonia). Similarly, nobody dies of 'Covid-19' - you die of the complication of an illness, made terminal by the virus.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

What's going on right now, is that a lot of deaths will have "Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome" or "Pneumonia" as a cause of death, but without COVID19 because the doctor isn't able to prove it (because test kits still are being rationed in this country).

CDC is instructing doctors and morticians to write down COVID-19 even if they weren't tested positive for COVID-19. Here's an example: an 90 year old patient dies of ARDS but was not tested for any underlying diseases because they're 90 years old. The ARDS could have been caused by influenza but, due to the CDC direction, the mortician/doctor put down COVID-19 resulting in overcounting COVID-19 deaths.

CDC's recommendation to put COVID-19 as an underlying cause came out on March 24. We have over a month, potentially, of inflated numbers.

This is the point/problem: there's reasons for undercounting and reasons for overcounting: the result is a very wide margin of error. And these variables are different from country to country so comparing one country's deaths to another country's deaths isn't going to tell you much because the variability in how they're getting their numbers isn't apples to apples.

UK are not under counting now, as I said, we were until 10 days ago, media pressure along with a significant dose of Care sector workers speaking out finally led to full transparency, I can't and won't speak for any other country but I know why they originally only used deaths in hospitals as the figure and that was simply because at that point the only people consistently tested were when they got admitted to hospital as a serious case and at that time for right or wrong (probably for wrong) they were the only absolute certainties.

Exactly and I'd argue media pressure to change uniform reporting is going to make it really complicated for the analysts to figure out how many COVID-19 killed. A stable baselines is the best source for statistical analysis; a moving target is the worst.

I can't speak for the UK, but it wasn't until recently that US doctors recognized that COVID19 may cause blood-clots and strokes. And only recently we've learned about kidney / liver damage as a result.

April 6 at the latest:

Colorado doctors test anti-blood clot treatment on COVID-19 patients, optimistic about results so far

BOSTON (KDVR) — A Colorado family of doctors and its research counterparts – who are affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medica…

kdvr.com

Reporting on it exploded on April 22 when Reuters published an article on it:

Alarmed as COVID patients' blood thickened, New York doctors try new treatments

As the novel coronavirus spread through New York City in late March, doctors at Mount Sinai Hospital noticed something strange happening to patients' blood.

www.reuters.com