Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[the54thvoid]

What is required to make a sensible decision is a clear understanding of the following:

How much viral matter is expelled in normal breath: how far does that spread and can it be reduced sufficiently.

What viral load is required to contract the illness.

What minimisation of that viral matter is created through various fabrics and masks.


And please, don't reply with links. If someone has a link, summarise the content and post link (for verification).

I know there are images of coughing, breathing etc through a fabric mask but that's meaningless. Force of expiration is a huge factor in volume and spread of breath. For example, in shops, I shallow breath through my nose with mouth closed. I know that creates less expired air.

Unfortunately, there isn't any clear science that ties up the issue of masks, viral expiration, and transmission level.

So, non-medical masks are a placebo until the science brings the argument into one, verifiable study.

 

[HTC]

Unfortunately, there isn't any clear science that ties up the issue of masks, viral expiration, and transmission level.

So, non-medical masks are a placebo until the science brings the argument into one, verifiable study.

IMO, the biggest help ANY mask provides is that it forces the user NOT to touch the mouth or nose because they are covered: couple that with frequent washing of hands and even infected people shouldn't be able to infect others via surfaces, while the social distancing helps with viral expiration and transmission.

Obviously, this hinges on the fact that masks are being used correctly, which unfortunately is often not the case.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Its not really rocket science if you think of it. The fact you feel more comfy with a mouth mask is a direct confirmation of that false sense of security. Its the very reason you want it.

Feeling completely naked against the virus makes people do what works: social distancing. False sense of security because of cloth masks makes people forget about distancing.

 

[moproblems99]

Feeling completely naked against the virus makes people do what works: social distancing. False sense of security because of cloth masks makes people forget about distancing.

Naked or die. That's always been my motto. I feel so vindicated.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 26715 confirmed infected --- 533 more
- 2258 recovered --- 182 more
- 1105 fatalities --- 16 more
- 262572 suspected cases --- 531 more
- 470234 tests taken --- no change
- 2492 waiting for test results --- 174 more
- 27318 under watch from authorities --- 2739 more
- 874 hospitalized --- 36 more
- 135 in ICU --- 1 less

A significant spike in hospitalized and infected is seeing a more "aggressive" upward trend ... and this is before we observe the result of lockdown easing measures.

Feeling completely naked against the virus makes people do what works: social distancing. False sense of security because of cloth masks makes people forget about distancing.

That's the exact argument or Health Director-General was using when she said it wasn't worth it to use masks, back in March (see post #1324), but she was referring to ANY masks, cloth AND proper medical masks, though she did enphasize more cloth masks.

The thing is masks alone aren't sufficient just as washing hands alone is insufficient and just as social distancy alone is also insufficient BUT, combine all three and their protection is VERY good.

 

[dragontamer5788]

It can be anything, from a scarf, some self made contraption, a plastic tank over your head... all with varying effectiveness and counter-productiveness. None of it truly helpful, all the evidence points at a highly conditional, mild effect at best. And that effect is ONLY PRESENT if you add strict personal hygiene and never take the mask off and put it on again without washing your hands.

Who are we kidding?

The Practice of Wearing Surgical Masks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Letters to the Editor

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Nevertheless, mechanistic studies found that surgical masks could prevent transmission of human coronavirus and influenza virus infections if worn by infected persons (2)

Although evidence is limited for their effectiveness in preventing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, either for source control or to reduce exposure, the wearing of masks by healthy persons may prevent potential asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission (3)

Its very difficult to protect yourself with a mask.

But its very easy to protect others with a mask. If you are an asymtomatic carrier of COVID19, wearing a mask will prevent transmission to other people.

What is required to make a sensible decision is a clear understanding of the following:

How much viral matter is expelled in normal breath: how far does that spread and can it be reduced sufficiently.

What viral load is required to contract the illness.

What minimisation of that viral matter is created through various fabrics and masks.


And please, don't reply with links. If someone has a link, summarise the content and post link (for verification).

I know there are images of coughing, breathing etc through a fabric mask but that's meaningless. Force of expiration is a huge factor in volume and spread of breath. For example, in shops, I shallow breath through my nose with mouth closed. I know that creates less expired air.

Unfortunately, there isn't any clear science that ties up the issue of masks, viral expiration, and transmission level.

So, non-medical masks are a placebo until the science brings the argument into one, verifiable study.

Simple Respiratory Mask: Simple Respiratory Mask - PMC

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

A Hanes Heavyweight 100% preshrunk cotton T-shirt (made in Honduras) (http://www.hanesprintables.com/Globals/Faq.aspx) was boiled for 10 minutes and air-dried to maximize shrinkage and sterilize the material in a manner available in developing countries. A scissor, marker, and ruler were used to cut out 1 outer layer (≈37 × 72 cm) and 8 inner layers (<18 cm2). The mask was assembled and fitted as shown in the Figure.

Although insufficient for the workplace, this mask offered substantial protection from the challenge aerosol and showed good fit with minimal leakage. The other 2 authors with LANL panel face size 10, the largest size, achieved fit factors of 13 and 17 by making the prototype mask inner layers slightly larger (22 cm2).

A "Challenge Aerosol" is a spray with a distinctive smell. You spray the aerosol into the air, and test if you can smell it. The reduction of your sense of smell proves that the mask is working, because the aerosol has similar properties to the droplets of moisture that carries viruses. The "fit factor" is a test to see how well the mask stays on your face. The #1 issue with this home-made mask design is that it falls off easier, requiring you to touch your face / mask often to reposition it.

It seems possible to make an effective respirator mask out of cotton. However, it requires testing and designs that frankly, the average person won't do. But the paper gives us an idea of how we can get there. We need a source of a strong smell that has similar properties of the virus to test against. We need to test our designs after creating them, and redoing our designs when we find out that they don't work.

 

[Vayra86]

The Practice of Wearing Surgical Masks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Letters to the Editor

wwwnc.cdc.gov

But its very easy to protect others with a mask. If you are an asymtomatic carrier of COVID19, wearing a mask will prevent transmission to other people.

*might. If you don't ever touch it with your hands. And clean it every few hours. And and and. That is a discipline you expect from health workers, not the average Joe. And they won't anyway. So, the net result is a mask is mostly 'the social norm' with very little practical use. I've been through this discussion weeks ago I will not, shall not be part of that idiocy.

Its also extremely uncomfortable.

 

[dragontamer5788]

*might. If you don't ever touch it with your hands. And clean it every few hours. And and and. That is a discipline you expect from health workers, not the average Joe. And they won't anyway. So, the net result is a mask is mostly 'the social norm' with very little practical use. I've been through this discussion weeks ago I will not, shall not be part of that idiocy.

Its also extremely uncomfortable.

In the case of transmission, the COVID19 virus is on the inside of the mask, not on the outside. As such, the typical user who continuously touches the outside of the mask still is protecting others while wearing it.

The #1 use of masks is to prevent asymptomatic transmission of the virus. The mask protects others, not yourself under typical layperson situations. Note that surgical masks achieve the same purpose. (Surgical Masks are NOT N95 rated at all. Surgical masks protect the patient, not the doctor/nurses).

COVID19 is unique in that it has a long, 5 to 7 day asymptomatic transmission period. You spread the virus for nearly a week before getting symptoms. For those 5 to 7 days, you can protect others if you simply wear a mask.

 

[Vayra86]

In the case of transmission, the COVID19 virus is on the inside of the mask, not on the outside. As such, the typical user who continuously touches the outside of the mask still is protecting others while wearing it.

The #1 use of masks is to prevent asymptomatic transmission of the virus. The mask protects others, not yourself under typical layperson situations. Note that surgical masks achieve the same purpose. (Surgical Masks are NOT N95 rated at all. Surgical masks protect the patient, not the doctor/nurses).

Oh, you know all your Covid is going to kindly sit on the inner layer of a piece of cloth? Health workers have a very high positive covid %, despite protective gear. But sure, we will do better!

Not convinced, sorry... I'm far more easily convinced by policy that is equipped to handle a certain infection rate and scaled accordingly. Masks have no reliable effect on spread, so they should not be part of policy. Its not complicated.

Also, the CDC paper is not a credible number for me. Its a US stat, one of the countries with the worst policy regarding this crisis, and leading in deaths.

1. Viruses have no flagella or motor skills. This isn't a bacterium that can move, it is almost entirely a passive ball of RNA that sits on water droplets.

2. You don't need to stop all COVID19 to have a good effect. Single-layer Cotton T-Shirts has been shown to be 60% effective against 0.3um aerosols, which means that anyone wearing a cotton cloth mask will spew out 60% fewer COVID19 viruses than normal.

Yeah, like I said, I've been all over this weeks back and my conclusion has not changed. To each their own, there are many alternative facts you can choose from.

Going to leave it at that, as was my intent a page back The scientific consensus has NOT changed.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Oh, you know all your Covid is going to kindly sit on the inner layer of a piece of cloth?

1. Viruses have no flagella or motor skills. This isn't a bacterium that can move, it is almost entirely a passive ball of RNA that sits on water droplets. The entirety of the virus's movement comes from your breath.

2. You don't need to stop all COVID19 to have a good effect. Single-layer Cotton T-Shirts has been shown to be 60% effective against 0.3um aerosols, which means that anyone wearing a cotton cloth mask will spew out 60% fewer COVID19 viruses than normal. N95 masks are only tested against 0.3um aerosols, as for some physics reason (I don't understand), 0.3um is the hardest sized pratical to drop. (Smaller is easier, apparently. So no one bothers to test anything smaller than 0.3um)

Health workers have a very high positive covid %, despite protective gear. But sure, we will do better!

Note that N95 means 95% effective against 0.3um aerosol. Not even a N95 mask is 100% effective. There are N99 and N100 masks available, but they're too expensive for health care workers to use.

We're not trying to do "better" than health care workers. We're trying to do better than a maskless individual. Anything is likely better than 0% effectiveness. I think the cotton-cloth of 60% effectiveness gives us an idea of what we can do with home-materials.

EDIT: Note that those surgical masks that nurses / doctors wear are 0% effective. They have no N-rating at all. They still have been shown to protect the patient from doctor->patient transmission during a surgery however. This is the level that we're hoping to achieve with deployed home-made masks.

 

[Vayra86]

Anything is likely better than 0% effectiveness.

This reads as 'grasping at straws'. There is no scientific basis. There is some indication it MIGHT help. Not supported by evidence, but only by lab tests. Society is not a lab environment. People are not lab rats. Its a simple as that. If you want to live in the illusion you will have noticeable effect when people wear a mask every day without symptoms, but go about their business in every other way and doing better that way, than when they know they need to adhere to social distancing OR ELSE they can spread it... be my guest.

I don't like illusions and you really oughta think this through, thinking about being a normal dude in society doing your daily routine. What are we creating here? I think we are creating a monstrosity of fear and doubt that nobody really wanted. By jumping on the mask hype train, we lend credibility to that fear. Its not healthy.

It also postpones the necessary discussion that we need to be having publicly: what degree of risk will we accept in terms of transmission. Which means: what do we accept from one another, socially, as well. The mask is a way to flee from that reality, for now. It is policy without vision and hopefully a fast expiry date.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Not supported by evidence

 

[Vayra86]

View attachment 154123

Oh wow. Well, now you're not doing yourself a service at all. This was globally debunked. So this is your basis? A random social media post? Man... Do you get it now, why I don't follow the masses like this?!

A different approach to this question.
How do you feel, today if someone 'infected' you with Influenza? Are they a social pariah? I'd reckon they're not, we just accept that it might happen. And that is where Covid needs to go as fast as possible, too. Mitigate the risk for high risk groups, and accept it.

I haven't heard the evidence myself yet. Care to summarize?

You weren't listening to the scientific papers I listed earlier. So lemme try something else. Cotton masks have been shown to be an effective Respirator Mask. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3373043/. I already posted this, but you weren't really following that. So lets try something a bit less scientific.

No, I'm done here, as I've tried to put across several times, as this is still meant for stats and maps, plus its an old discussion and the conditions have not changed.

One telling sign is you're trying to talk me into a mask, why? To solidify your own idea about it? Must I really be part of the flock that badly for it to be a good, credible flock?

Psychology...

 

[dragontamer5788]

Oh wow. Well, now you're not doing yourself a service at all. This was globally debunked. So this is your basis? A random social media post? Man...

I haven't heard the "debunk" myself yet. Care to summarize?

A random social media post?

You weren't listening to the scientific papers I listed earlier. So lemme try something else. Cotton masks have been shown to be an effective Respirator Mask. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3373043/. I already posted this, but you weren't really following that. So lets try something a bit less scientific.

When Logos doesn't work, I switch to Pathos and Ethos. Standard debate strategy, surely you can't blame me for that?

EDIT:

One telling sign is you're trying to talk me into a mask, why?

If you become a carrier of COVID19, there will be a 5-to-7 day period where you will transmit the virus without feeling symptoms. YOU need to wear a mask to prevent COVID19 from escaping your body. Simple hygiene in these times. And there's no way to know if you're an asymptomatic transmitter unless you're getting tested all the time. (this 5 to 7 day onset period does NOT have a cough or fever associated with it).

If it were easier to make a respirator mask to protect myself... then yeah, I'd just wear a mask and not care. But the evidence is in. Masks protect the public by covering up the infected, in practice. Its supremely difficult to make an effective Respirator mask, but it is grossly easier to make a "surgical" mask (where the asymptomatic infected protect everyone else).

 

[the54thvoid]

Okay, so the mask debate has gone far enough. (I was involved - yes).

Let's try and stay on topic of the cheery stats of infections, deaths and other such measurable things.

 

[dragontamer5788]

@Tatty_One, I appreciate the point of view, even if im not responding to your post. (or am I???)

Moving back to the discussion, something very interesting is happening in Maryland / USA, so I think I'll muse about it a bit.

Pages - Home

An official website of the State of Maryland.

coronavirus.maryland.gov

We're still getting +1000ish cases per day, every day (up from a few weeks ago). However, our hospitalization rate has plateaued. Earlier this week, we had 5-days of fewer hospitalizations (the last 2 days have seen a slight increase of only +14 or so hospitalizations).

The explanation is likely... https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...d449a4-8311-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html

Maryland seems to have ramped up our testing. We have more tests, and are therefore seeing more cases per day. We don't "really" have more cases per day, we're just detecting more cases per day. Our governor has chosen to focus on the hospitalization / ICU numbers instead of the death (trailing indicator) or cases detected. As testing ramps up in this part (and other parts) of the country, keep that in mind. Keep an eye on the negative test results (if your state is reporting them).

 

[Vayra86]

@Tatty_One, I appreciate the point of view, even if im not responding to your post. (or am I???)

Moving back to the discussion, something very interesting is happening in Maryland / USA, so I think I'll muse about it a bit.

Pages - Home

An official website of the State of Maryland.

coronavirus.maryland.gov

We're still getting +1000ish cases per day, every day (up from a few weeks ago). However, our hospitalization rate has plateaued. Earlier this week, we had 5-days of fewer hospitalizations (the last 2 days have seen a slight increase of only +14 or so hospitalizations).

The explanation is likely... https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...d449a4-8311-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html

Maryland seems to have ramped up our testing. We have more tests, and are therefore seeing more cases per day. We don't "really" have more cases per day, we're just detecting more cases per day. Our governor has chosen to focus on the hospitalization / ICU numbers instead of the death (trailing indicator) or cases detected.

Exactly... that is the way forward. Have test capacity, and catch infections early, quarantine fast. Its how China got it under control, its how we should be doing it now or soonish. Meanwhile, rest of society can keep going. You just kinda have to kill this with fire, all the time. This is also supported by evidence from several countries by now. The ones doing best, were the ones who had something like this up and going ASAP.

 

[Tatty_Two]

For almost 2 weeks now the UK has day on day less infections, less admissions to hospital and less people in ICU beds and whilst fatality figures are still pretty high (too high) sadly a lot of that remains in residential Care homes but as my Wife tells me (she is a Nurse), many of the people sadly dying in hospital today got infected 4-6 weeks ago as many of the worst cases can be on ventilators for 3+ weeks and it kind of skews the picture.

 

[Vayra86]

Heh just found this...

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/eclinm/PIIS2589-5370(20)30100-0.pdf

Feel free to delete if not wanted. There is more, too.

Facemasks and similar barriers to prevent respiratory illness such as COVID-19: A rapid systematic review

The current pandemic of COVID-19 has lead to conflicting opinions on whether wearing facemasks outside of health care facilities protects against the infection. To better understand the value of wearing facemasks we undertook a rapid systematic review of existing scientific evidence about...

www.medrxiv.org

And

A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers | BMJ Open

Pick your poison... This is all source material, not 'press'.

 

[Tatty_Two]

UK Update 7 May:

 

[Xzibit]

I linked sources for this. The influenza code was only used 3000-15000 times per year over the past many years. The reason why people say 60000+ is because influenza is grouped with pneumonia which is a far more common cause of death. Just because someone died of pneumonia doesn't necessarily mean they had influenza. Just going off of those numbers compared to the mortality data, the influenza code is used at 17% or lower from what CDC estimates simply because physicians don't use the influenza code. There's no reason why the COVID-19 code shouldn't be at 17% or less too.


Which is the way it should be. Page 29, they tell physicians to write "probable" or "presumed" if it isn't conclusive:
View attachment 154020

Not sure if this has been pointed out before

Hospital which report a patient due to COVID-19 get

A Medicare add-on payment of 20% for both rural and urban inpatient hospital COVID-19 patients

During the emergency period, the legislation provides a 20% add-on to the DRG rate for patients with COVID-19. This add-on will apply to patients treated at rural and urban inpatient prospective payment system (IPPS) hospitals.

A patient with COVID19 is more financial beneficial then a non-covid patient.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Not sure if this has been pointed out before

Hospital which report a patient due to COVID-19 get


A patient with COVID19 is more financial beneficial then a non-covid patient.

One has to hope there is some kind of audit system for that, otherwise the Government is going to be paying $Billions for the farmer in Mississippi who collapses and dies in his field because of a heart attack with nothing linking to the virus.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

One has to hope there is some kind of audit system for that, otherwise the Government is going to be paying $Billions for the farmer in Mississippi who collapses and dies in his field because of a heart attack with nothing linking to the virus.

Nope, there isn't. Audits cost money. Cheaper to just write the check and ignore it.


This one lacks a world view perspective and dismisses obvious problems because of it:

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/eclinm/PIIS2589-5370(20)30100-0.pdf

94.8% of pedestrians wore masks of which
--83.7% wore disposable surgical masks
----13% of them wore them incorrectly
------35.5% inside out or upside down
------42.5% worn too low, exposing nostrils or mouth

Only 76.3% of respondents reused their masks.

Meanwhile, healthcare professionals all over the world are reusing surgical masks 5+ times. They're desperate for anything while Hong Kongers are burning through them like tissues during a cold.

When you consider the studies below where surgical masks only slow the infection rate by 6%, and the fact that almost everyone has masks and they're not working in healthcare, their mass behavior is detrimental to those at the highest risk.


This one is self explanatory:

Facemasks and similar barriers to prevent respiratory illness such as COVID-19: A rapid systematic review

The current pandemic of COVID-19 has lead to conflicting opinions on whether wearing facemasks outside of health care facilities protects against the infection. To better understand the value of wearing facemasks we undertook a rapid systematic review of existing scientific evidence about...

www.medrxiv.org

The evidence is not sufficiently strong to support widespread use of facemasks as a protective measure against COVID-19.

A direct refutiation of the first article:

A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers | BMJ Open

Critical shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) have resulted in the US Centers for Disease Control downgrading their recommendations for health workers treating COVID-19 patients from respirators to surgical masks and finally to home-made cloth masks.

The study found that cloth mask wearers had higher rates of infection than even the standard practice control group of health workers, and the filtration provided by cloth masks was poor compared to surgical masks.

We recommend that health workers should not work during the COVID-19 pandemic without respiratory protection as a matter of work health and safety.

In this case, the physical barrier provided by a cloth mask may afford some protection, but likely much less than a surgical mask or a respirator.

We also did an analysis of all mask wearers, and the higher infection rate in cloth mask group persisted.

Finally for COVID-19, wearing a mask is not enough to protect healthcare workers – use of gloves and goggles are also required as a minimum, as SARS-CoV-2 may infect not only through the respiratory route, but also through contact with contaminated surfaces and self-contamination.

Governments and hospitals should plan and stockpile proper disposable products such as respirators and surgical masks to ensure the occupational health and safety of health workers. This appears to have been a failure in many countries, including high income countries.

In other words the public use of surgical masks and respirators in Hong Kong, China, and South Korea are making the pandemic worse everywhere else.


Other than the myopic study in Hong Kong, these other two papers directly refutes the idea of widespread face coverings. At most: high risk people in high risk environments for very short durations. Healthcare professionals need respirators and anyone using them when they shouldn't be are putting them at risk.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 27268 confirmed infected --- 553 more
- 2422 recovered --- 164 more
- 1114 fatalities --- 9 more
- 269266 suspected cases --- 3694 more
- 501718 tests taken --- 31484 more
- 2984 waiting for test results --- 318 more
- 26829 under watch from authorities --- 489 less
- 842 hospitalized --- 32 less
- 127 in ICU --- 8 less

Portugal has now crossed the half-a-million tests performed mark: that's roughly 50K tests per 1M inhabitants.

Infected number has increased by over 450 for the 3rd day in a row, after several days of 250 or less per day, and this is before the ease of lockdown measures begin to show their effects. Still, hospitalized and ICU numbers dropped, so there's that good news.

 

[ozkisses]

Reading back on the articles presented above, further up on one of the links say

"The suggestion that cloth masks can lead to increased infection compared to no mask is not substantiated The control arm had less than 1% of no mask use and therefore the statement is an assumption not a proof . "

Researchers world wide are disagreeing and rightfully so as there hasn't been the time needed to conduct thorough research. Currently researchers are working towards supporting their own opinions. Which is how most research is conducted. Until more evidence is available the only thing that can be given is advise which is currently based on opinion. For every for argument there is an against at the moment.

The USA has lost over 75,000 people, not because they did or didn't wear a mask but because they contracted the virus. (yes 74,500 of those died of something different but are currently being shown in the numbers for COVID19). Medical staff are not highly represented in the positive numbers and in the state i live in are wearing any mask they can find.

I don't even understand why you are so knicker twisted over it. In America "this isn't as bad as our flu season" and "we are doing pretty good considering our population" "it's a big fuss over nothing".

Until there is conclusive evidence one way or the other what does it matter if people choose to wear masks or not, if that is what helps them feel a little safer at this time. It is starting to sound like empty vessel stuff.

As I have said prior, why not wait till it is over and look at the governments the world is admiring at the moment and dissect what it was they did to protect their people and what their population did to protect themselves. Many of those countries are coming to the end of their concerns with minimal losses and without feeling an ounce of freedom lost I know, right.