Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[dragontamer5788]

South America is doing abysmally

There's a lot of worry that cold-weather will make this virus worse. (Cold weather means most gatherings will be inside with poorer ventilation / fewer windows open)

Its winter (going into spring) in South America right now. Its not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison due to the differences in policy... but the seasonal offset between the northern and southern hemispheres must be noted.

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until yesterday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 21069 active cases --- 3022 more --- 431.7 more per day
- 45596 recovered --- 1527 more --- 218.1 more per day
- 1912 fatalities --- 45 more --- 6.4 more per day
- 68577 confirmed infected --- 4594 more --- 656.3 more per day

- 2415426 tests taken --- 185673 more --- 18567.3 more per day but was last updated September 20th
- 39362 under watch --- 2964 more --- 423.4 more per day
- 511 hospitalized --- 98 more --- 8.4 more per day
- 63 in ICU --- 14 more --- 0.9 more per day

Our single digit daily death toll, or less (zero deaths) streak was broken: it lasted for 69 days.

Our health site didn't publish yesterday's main page so i was forced to use the situation report instead.

While this week's increase in new cases VS the previous week isn't as high as the previous two weeks, it's still an increase of over 23% over the previous week's number. We've also had our 5th highest number of new cases on Sep 19th, with 849, and the effect of schools having started is yet to be seen: this is sooooo not looking good

The following pic is the history of daily cases in Portugal, since March (click for full picture):



As can be seen, there's a significant uptick in new daily cases

 

[Bubster]

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

and US only

Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US

Track the spread of coronavirus in the United States with maps and updates on cases and deaths.

edition.cnn.com

 

[harm9963]

Mexico under reports by a lot .

Coronavirus Scourge Leaves Mexico Short of Death Certificates

Mexico is running out of death certificates due to the high death toll brought by the coronavirus pandemic and federal bureaucratic delays, authorities say, delaying funerals as corpses lay in wait.

www.wsj.com

 

[harm9963]

Epidemiological Alert COVID-19 among healthcare workers 31 August 2020

 

[harm9963]

Open up , ok

 

[the54thvoid]

Open up , ok View attachment 169517

I feel your pain. The UK's spiralling right now.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I hate to say this folks, but even though the numbers are looking like they're getting grim, the reality is that they are still lower than that of the flu in most areas and way lower than heart failure and cancer in all areas. Anyone still not thinking this is all over-reaction? Seems like an over-reaction to me.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I hate to say this folks, but even though the numbers are looking like they're getting grim, the reality is that they are still lower than that of the flu in most areas and way lower than heart failure and cancer in all areas. Anyone still not thinking this is all over-reaction? Seems like an over-reaction to me.

The flu killed 78,000 in 2018-2019 season, and less than 60,000 in 2019 to 2020 season (still pending for an official result for 2019-2020).

The year isn't over yet, and COVID19 already killed 200,000. And this is a year where we shut down the majority of sports events, concerts, and conventions. Can you imagine how much more COVID19 would have spread if we had sports?

EDIT: And before you say "comorbidities", note that the Flu-mortality rate also includes a significant number of comorbidities: Asthma, Heart disease, Stroke, etc. etc. Hell, by the "comorbidity" argument, HIV / AIDS "doesn't kill anyone" because the HIV virus literally can't kill you. It just causes the NEXT virus you get to kill you. Dying with HIV / AIDS is synonymous with dying from HIV / AIDS

As soon as we start comparing COVID19 with other diseases (Flu, AIDS, etc. etc.), it becomes clear that COVID19 causes more deaths on an apples-to-apples measurement (with consistent, and identical measurements of comorbidities).

 

[the54thvoid]

I hate to say this folks, but even though the numbers are looking like they're getting grim, the reality is that they are still lower than that of the flu in most areas and way lower than heart failure and cancer in all areas. Anyone still not thinking this is all over-reaction? Seems like an over-reaction to me.

It's for sure certain other death groupings are higher. Heart disease (US annually) accounted for around 380k deaths in 2018. I would hope COVID doesn't reach that level but at the halfway mark it is entirely plausible it will break 300k for the whole year. However, heart disease is a symptom of lifetsyle in most cases. It's not transmitable, so it's okay to hang out with someone with it. The entire issue with coronavirus is the lack of immunity at the moment. Once a vaccine is safe to use, I think we'll see a huge improvement. But until then, this pesky, mostly harmless virus will kill a lot more people. Needlessly in some cases due to the attitudes of some.

As an aside - Most people I know (in fact, all I've been in contact with) for 6 months have not had a cold, cough, or other contagious illness. Social distancing clearly plays a role in all viral transmissions. Worst thing I've had is a damn tick bite. Taught the little bugger social distancing with tweezers.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Worst thing I've had is a damn tick bite. Taught the little bugger social distancing with tweezers.

Thank You! I needed that laugh!!

 

[Tatty_Two]

It's a very difficult and often subjective comparison to make. Common influenza strains don't normally come with lockdown's, how many people would be dead worldwide if no country took any measures against Covid-19? Further to that, in the UK in 2018/19 the average infection rate for the 8 most common influenza strains (and this includes 2 forms of swine flu) was 0.20 cases per 100,000 of population, in the UK in April/May the Covid-19 average infection rate was 193.3 per 100,000 of population and that's with a lockdown. There were 1,692 confirmed Influenza related deaths in 2018/19, during April/May 2020 Covid-19 killed that many on average every 2-3 days.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Looks like the hospitalization drop was a temporary figment: the hospitalizations "popped back up" for some reason.

%Positive is still far lower than it was a few weeks ago however.

 

[harm9963]

Not surprise !

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true

 

[dragontamer5788]

%Positive remains low as Hospitalizations rise. This is a conflicting set of data, once again. Something weird is going on.

24-hour change in #Cases hasn't really gone up much. So why the change in hospitalizations?

Maybe there's been a "blip" in the reporting, like a mistake somewhere, and things are just getting back to normal. If I squint and kinda ignore the drop in hospitalizations from Monday this week, we're basically back to where we were last week in terms of hospitalization count.

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until yesterday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 24004 active cases --- 2935 more --- 419.3 more per day
- 47647 recovered --- 2051 more --- 293 more per day
- 1953 fatalities --- 41 more --- 5.9 more per day
- 73604 confirmed infected --- 5027 more --- 718.1 more per day

- 2501955 tests taken --- 86529 more --- 21632.3 more per day but was last updated September 24th
- 44274 under watch --- 4912 more --- 701.7 more per day
- 635 hospitalized --- 124 more --- 17.7 more per day
- 89 in ICU --- 26 more --- 3.7 more per day

Our health site didn't publish their main page on several days so i was forced to use the situation report for those days instead.

Our new infected cases continue to rise but the increase this week was roughly 9.5% VS last week's over 23%: Schools being opened should be having an impact on new numbers by now.

Also, our testing capability has increased, as evidenced by the fact that in just 4 days (the last update had been on Sep 20th) we conducted an average of over 21.5K tests per day: since the beginning of this pandemic, we've only crossed the 20K-a-day-tests-conducted barrier 11 times, with 10 of those times since Sep 8th.

 

[harm9963]

This is not working! opening up ?

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 26939 active cases --- 2935 more --- 419.3 more per day
- 50207 recovered --- 2560 more --- 365.7 more per day
- 2005 fatalities --- 52 more --- 7.4 more per day
- 79151 confirmed infected --- 5547 more --- 792.4 more per day

- 2647756 tests taken --- 145801 more --- 20828.7 more per day but was last updated October 1st
- 46348 under watch --- 2177 more --- 311 more per day
- 682 hospitalized --- 47 more --- 6.7 more per day
- 105 in ICU --- 16 more --- 2.3 more per day

Our new infected cases continue to rise, and the increase this week was roughly 10% VS previous week: closing in on 800 new daily cases per day. Our fatalities crossed 2K today as well

 

[Tatty_Two]

In the UK it's getting a bit bleak, a third of the country (approx 22 Million people) are now in various forms of tighter restrictions albeit pretty much everything remains open including schools, allegedly a large proportion of the people are ignoring guidelines (some sources say up to 20% of the population, mainly 18 - 35 age range) and no doubt they will be the first to complain if we have to go into full lockdown again at some point which as of now seems almost a certainty, if only because normally during the winter months of November - February ITU's are pretty much full in any case and more recently we are seeing more go into ITU's due to Covid-19, I forecast that by Mid November, should we carry on with this upwards trend then ITU's will be full and the Government is going to have to decide once again if it's life or the economy as ITU's collapse under the pressure if not.

7 day averages as of today...……..

New infections - 7,249 per day
Deaths - 49 per day
Hospital admissions - 378 per day

 

[HTC]

In the UK it's getting a bit bleak, a third of the country (approx 22 Million people) are now in various forms of tighter restrictions albeit pretty much everything remains open including schools, allegedly a large proportion of the people are ignoring guidelines (some sources say up to 20% of the population, mainly 18 - 35 age range) and no doubt they will be the first to complain if we have to go into full lockdown again at some point which as of now seems almost a certainty, if only because normally during the winter months of November - February ITU's are pretty much full in any case and more recently we are seeing more go into ITU's due to Covid-19, I forecast that by Mid November, should we carry on with this upwards trend then ITU's will be full and the Government is going to have to decide once again if it's life or the economy as ITU's collapse under the pressure if not.

7 day averages as of today...……..

New infections - 7,249 per day
Deaths - 49 per day
Hospital admissions - 378 per day

I wouldn't be surprised if Portugal were to be forced to have National lockdown again, even though our Prime Minister already said we won't resort to that last step and will instead have "localized lockdowns", should the need arise.

ANY National lockdown comes @ a terrible economic cost for both Country AND it's citizens and the vast majority of Governments simply can't afford to do it more than once.

I do wonder: have ANY medical staff had holidays since this Pandemic began? Don't have access to such data here in Portugal but, if it turns out they haven't due to this virus, there's a big risk of doctors beginning to be "more error prone" due to accumulated fatigue, both physical and mental, not just with COVID related patients but in general as well.

 

[harm9963]

We have so many people from other country's here , Mexico, south America, central America, Harris county is overwhelm , and the USA gets the blame.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I dunno, Mexico doesn't seem correlated to Texas in any real way.

In contrast:

Arizona, Florida, and Texas are clearly related.

 

[harm9963]

More plain, Texas border to Mexico, gateway from South America, central America , Houston TX / Harris County is the 4th largest city in the USA.

 

[the54thvoid]

Texas, formerly Mexican, previously New Spain.

 

[harm9963]

During the period of recorded history from A.D. 1519 to 1848, all or parts of Texas were claimed by five countries: France, Spain, Mexico, the Republic of Texas, and the United States of America as well as the confederacy during the civil war.

9 Things You May Not Know About Texas | HISTORY

Explore nine things you may not know about the Lone Star State.

www.history.com