Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Vayra86]

Our community is having a similar experience unfortunately. There are efforts to help where-ever possible. The one positive thing to come from Covid19 is that our community has come together like never before. The stigma's of shame for asking for and receiving help have gone away. Strange times to say the least.

Let's hope this also inspires a more social vibe in the country, the world, at large. In the Netherlands it appears this wave of altruism has already passed, now we're back to being grumpy and selfish again, and closing our eyes for obvious issues in our society's organization.

But all is not lost, that second wave will bring it back again I'm not worried. But people are already drifting off into extremes, as well, as they lose patience.

Going to be interesting to see the actual lessons learned at the end of the day.

 

[dragontamer5788]

When we look at the nation as a whole, we're about the same place we were in July.

By July, numbers were going sideways, not up. The 2nd derivative was flat, to declining, indicating that the end of the surge was near.

Today, numbers continue to go up across the country.

That's +Growth (2nd derivative) on 48/50 states (only Kansas is inflected down right now, Mississippi is 0% growth in case/day, or neutral growth). Cases/day are accelerating across the USA. This is literally the worst its ever been in the country, no joke, and its projected to keep getting worse.

It can't get better until we bring down the 2nd derivative to a negative value.

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Another point: the July surge was in just a few states (Florida, Texas, Arizona): we could move Navy Hospital ships to temporarily help out the afflicted areas. This surge today is across the USA, and largely against landlocked states (no hospital ships from the Navy available for North Dakota). The logistics of this latest surge are going to be more complicated.

 

[harm9963]

'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"
A Tale of Two States , one is Texas ,the other is Harris County ,as Houstonians refer to.

Harris county is the 3rd largest in the USA

New census data: Harris County is the third largest county in the US, but how does its growth compare to other large Texas counties?

Several Texas counties are seeing a bump in their resident tally.

www.click2houston.com

.
Houston is the 4th Largest city in the USA

Facts and Figures

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[harm9963]

That time of the the year.

El Paso County orders 2-week shutdown due to COVID-19 spike

The county judge said hospitals are at capacity, and if they don't respond, they'll see "unprecedented levels of deaths."

abc13.com

 

[scowie]

Marked LQ post (not deleted). The quoted article doesn't dicuss respiratory viral transmission - which doesn't help this debate at all. I may as well suggest nurses are prone to covid by being nurses, as opposed to the fact they are in contact with the virus. The site also has a claimed aim of attempting to consistently prove a negative hypothesis which means it is prone to err on a false assumption even where evidence tallies against the negative hypothesis. In other words, its a vehicle for one mans ego. Notably it has a conspiracy leaning agenda.

Principia Scientific International (PSI) - Bias and Credibility

CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence.

mediabiasfactcheck.com

Well, this article discusses research into a supposedly highly infectious and deadly respiratory viral infection, i.e. "Spanish Flu": https://moscow.sci-hub.se/4021/da48b390a33f0ef54f59d6974a4104f6/rosenau1919.pdf

...which suggests it was not very infectious at all. I see a lot of posting of statistics here along with implications that correlation implies causation. I am more interested in what rigorous scientific experiments show. Has any experiment shown "covid" symptoms to be transmissible via respiration? Have any rigorous experiments shown any disease symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?

Btw, if an article, like the one I previously linked to, is fully referenced, it shouldn't matter what website the article has been posted on. All the references can be looked up and you will find those references are not hosted on a "conspiracy" website.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Has any experiment shown "covid" symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?

I hate to sound like a broken record but...

There have been 50 different states, with 50 different mask regulations. That's about as "real world experiment" as you can get.

Masks do NOT stop the virus on its own. But masks absolutely slow down its spread. Your skepticism may have been warranted months ago when this virus was new, but there's enough evidence now to make a conclusion.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Has any experiment shown "covid" symptoms to be transmissible via respiration? Have any rigorous experiments shown any disease symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?

Yes and yes. No, I'm not going to cite, go look at the CDC website for that data. However, this thread is for discussing the tracking and propagation of COVID19, not the general discussion of such. There is another thread for such discussions.

https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565

Please take your discussion points over there.

 

[the54thvoid]

Well, this article discusses research into a supposedly highly infectious and deadly respiratory viral infection, i.e. "Spanish Flu": https://moscow.sci-hub.se/4021/da48b390a33f0ef54f59d6974a4104f6/rosenau1919.pdf

...which suggests it was not very infectious at all. I see a lot of posting of statistics here along with implications that correlation implies causation. I am more interested in what rigorous scientific experiments show. Has any experiment shown "covid" symptoms to be transmissible via respiration? Have any rigorous experiments shown any disease symptoms to be transmissible via respiration?

Btw, if an article, like the one I previously linked to, is fully referenced, it shouldn't matter what website the article has been posted on. All the references can be looked up and you will find those references are not on a "conspiracy" website.

You're referencing a 100-year-old article on diseases to validate your point? Even when the author of said article says:

I think we must be very careful not to draw any positive conclusions from negative results of this kind.

You can visit the other forum to discuss if you wish. But you're reply banned from here for science trolling.

 

[dragontamer5788]

46.3% of COVID19 tests are positive in South Dakota.

I think its safe to say that they're undercounting by a severe margin there. Things are far, far worse than what we're seeing.

Data from: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

 

[claes]

I mean, those forum members here who suggest that anywhere in the US is doing good must have their head under a rock.

The US just set a daily record for new cases at 92,000, and every state’s infection rate is steady or increasing. It’s going to be a long winter.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I mean, those forum members here who suggest that anywhere in the US is doing good must have their head under a rock.

Or we're looking at things from a different perspective. If you're going to throw out directed, veiled, passive aggressive insults, try a bit harder to be more subtle or just don't bother.

 

[the54thvoid]

I'm going to bed now. Don't want to wake up more acrimony.

 

[claes]

Or we're looking at things from a different perspective. If you're going to throw out directed, veiled, passive aggressive insults, try a bit harder to be more subtle or just don't bother.

Since when have I ever been subtle lol? I've @'d you a dozen times with no response; this time you're not alone, so I was more vague to try to encapsulate the broad set of views from different users. Don't fret -- you're surely amongst them!

Anyway, your reply is nice and personal and all, but I'll wage you a case toll of 80,000 new cases last Friday (a new record) and 90,0000 new cases yesterday (another new record) and simply say "the US is not handling the coronavirus well." If you'd like to disagree, feel free (but please don't call me a snowflake for taking internet arguments personally omg that'd be devastating)!

I'm going to bed now. Don't want to wake up more acrimony.

I'm just drinking cheap whiskey and waiting on a pizza before I watch a movie and call it a night. Much love to lex and others who disagree with me -- I'm enough of a humanist to say that I wish you all the best of health and prosperity, even in our differences

 

[lexluthermiester]

and simply say "the US is not handling the coronavirus well."

The only nation not being hit by this next wave is Taiwan and that won't keep. Sooner or later they will have to face this virus. It is only a matter of time, not a matter of if.

So the perspective of who is handling it well is a little subjective.

 

[dragontamer5788]

The only nation not being hit by this next wave is Taiwan and that won't keep. Sooner or later they will have to face this virus. It is only a matter of time, not a matter of if.

So the perspective of who is handling it well is a little subjective.

COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the world. Explore global data and research to understand its impact, spread, and global response.

ourworldindata.org

Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan all have this under control. India is inflected down: they're getting better right now despite a rise a few months ago.

Japan only had 770 cases yesterday on a population of 126 Million. India is clearly trending downwards, and the USA was always having far more COVID19 cases than India. Israel had a big spike, but they're clearly recovering now.

At this point, I think I can call the east-asian nations who had experience with SARS (aka: a Coronavirus) as doing the best job. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, etc. etc. They had experience with a pandemic in the early 00s and their population clearly knows what to do to keep it under control. They were some of the first nations to adopt widespread mask policies, and even today they wear masks despite having relatively low numbers of COVID19.

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Within the USA, we don't have to look at other countries anymore. Other countries have different culture, language, and religious barriers. We can focus on the USA and different states for better statistics for what our policy decisions would entail. There are also minor differences in how different countries count cases and/or deaths.

If we do look at other countries, it needs to be detailed. Knowing when they locked down (or not), what %Positive (or other metrics) that they're using. Their overall mask usage numbers, all that stuff. Things that are kinda hard to keep track of unless we live there. Otherwise, I think its just easiest to focus on our own country.

 

[Tatty_Two]

England going into a 4 week lockdown from next Thursday, stay at home policy except for essential shopping, medical and outdoor exercise. Schools, Colleges and Universities will remain open but all hospitality, non essential retail and leisure to close, work from home but if you cannot then you can still go to work plus try to avoid where possible the use of public transport.

 

[Vayra86]

The only nation not being hit by this next wave is Taiwan and that won't keep. Sooner or later they will have to face this virus. It is only a matter of time, not a matter of if.

So the perspective of who is handling it well is a little subjective.

Sorry lex but I have to say, you're off the mark here. Its definitely a question of if and not when, and there are mulitple live case studies/countries for you to indulge yourself in on that subject. Give it a shot sometime, it might broaden your view. The fact that the US so impossibly far away from any semblance of a 'track trace and eliminate' scenario with this virus does not change the outlook for many other countries who do have a much stronger grip on it. Its a matter of perspective - like you say.

For us, in the Netherlands right now the immediate outlook is access to quicker tests to get controlled reopening going again. That's a step up from the way we tried to reopen the last wave. We're getting better. Hospitalizations go down even when infection rates go up. Part of all this is logical of course, but again - its progress. The live view on the R number is another meaningful difference between countries. How well is their view on the actual situation, and how timely do they respond - that is what makes the difference every time. What we do over here is constant recalibration - no semblance of a clear cut way to handle it... could definitely be better. Germany, our immediate neighbour is doing exactly that - and they've got far better numbers than we do. Better compliance among the population as well. Its all connected.

 

[Tomgang]

It´s a mixed bag how this virus spead in different countries also in europe we are all from doing pretty good to a lock down. Germany, poland, italy, Belgium and latest UK. Is among those who are in a lock down or considering it.

Denmark where i am from. We are not doing to good, but neither to bad, yet that is. Danish goverment just announced a new warning system for Covid-19. There 5 levels. Level 1 is the lowest and level 5 is pretty much a lock down. Right now we are at level 3. New restrictions whas put in to play monday this week as the two weeks before that, we saw a rapid increase in infected people.

This week however. Infected has been high, but stable. We have howered around 1000 to 1200 infected per day. But as said, it has been a stable number, so we havent seen rapid increase in infected people. With that i hope the restrictions has been implemented in right time. So what we hopefully seing now, is a second wave right at is peak now and then going slowly down. But it is yet to early to say if that is the case. It can still go the wrong way as well.

I surely hope second wave has peaked in Denmark. But seing what happens in other countries, second wave can very fast spead again. So i can only wish and hope we can prevent a lock down this round.

As a last thing. Normaly i will post a song in a thread like this. But this one from scooter tells pretty much what i and many other think of 2020. FCK 2020. Take a listen, you might not like the style of music. But it fits 2020 pretty good.

 

[the54thvoid]

Scooter. Remember: it's nice to be important, but it's more important to be nice.

 

[harm9963]

England going into a 4 week lockdown from next Thursday, stay at home policy except for essential shopping, medical and outdoor exercise. Schools, Colleges and Universities will remain open but all hospitality, non essential retail and leisure to close, work from home but if you cannot then you can still go to work plus try to avoid where possible the use of public transport.

 

[harm9963]

Texas goes as Harris county goes[ THIRD largest county in the USA ! with Houston the 4th largest city in the USA !

 

[Tatty_Two]

They got their math wrong, it's 4 weeks, starts Thursday 5th Nov through to 2nd December

 

[HTC]

England going into a 4 week lockdown from next Thursday, stay at home policy except for essential shopping, medical and outdoor exercise. Schools, Colleges and Universities will remain open but all hospitality, non essential retail and leisure to close, work from home but if you cannot then you can still go to work plus try to avoid where possible the use of public transport.

Why the wait? Isn't it bad enough now?

Don't forget: it will continue to get worse for a minimum of 5 days and up to 14 days AFTER the lockdown starts, due to the incubation period.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Why the wait? Isn't it bad enough now?

Don't forget: it will continue to get worse for a minimum of 5 days and up to 14 days AFTER the lockdown starts, due to the incubation period.

Businesses are allowed to close before the lockdown. Any non-essential business (ie: office complexes or whatnot) should close immediately, just based on the seriousness of the situation. Anyone who is staying open is probably for last-minute remote-work situations. Since this is the 2nd lockdown, such plans are probably already in place, but it still takes time for laptops to be distributed, VPNs to be tested, and (if necessary), laptops returned for working laptops.

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For restaurants / hospitality sector: its a worse conversation. You need to meet up with your employees and figure out which one gets fired. Giving time to sleep on it is useful, its a serious discussion and deserves a day or two of thought.

 

[HTC]

Businesses are allowed to close before the lockdown. Any non-essential business (ie: office complexes or whatnot) should close immediately, just based on the seriousness of the situation. Anyone who is staying open is probably for last-minute remote-work situations. Since this is the 2nd lockdown, such plans are probably already in place, but it still takes time for laptops to be distributed, VPNs to be tested, and (if necessary), laptops returned for working laptops.

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For restaurants / hospitality sector: its a worse conversation. You need to meet up with your employees and figure out which one gets fired. Giving time to sleep on it is useful, its a serious discussion and deserves a day or two of thought.

Everything you just said made 100% complete sense.