Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Ahhzz]

You should all be optimistic. Jan 20th is right around the corner by about 57 days.. If the plan hasn't been forgotten due to Alzheimer's, this will all be wrapped up in no time.

I'm not sure what you're referring to about Alzheimer's.... And, this really won't be "wrapped up" any time immediately. The vaccines will take an extended time to deliver, and hopefully they'll focus on critical workers first, like health care/care givers.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I hope so; the US recorded a daily record of airport travelers since the pandemic began, and AAA estimates about 50M will travel for thanksgiving this holiday (~1/7 Americans).

I couldn’t find a graph, but here’s some data, which isn’t helping me feel optimistic. Let’s see what happens Wednesday (the day before thanksgiving in the US) and check-in in two weeks.

Travel Numbers | Transportation Security Administration

www.tsa.gov

Fewer Americans Traveling This Thanksgiving amid Pandemic

ORLANDO, Fla. (November 12, 2020) – Thanksgiving will be on the lighter side when it comes to the typical number of travelers on the roads and at

newsroom.aaa.com

Well, Thanksgiving was going to happen whether or not these numbers change. I've talked to enough of my friends and family: people have already decided if they are going to host a party, or to stay home. So that's pretty much "set in stone".

I agree with you though: Thanksgiving will almost certainly make things worse again. But from my perspective: we at least got to see an inflection downward before Thanksgiving. If things were still inflected upwards as we entered Thanksgiving, then things would be "even worse".

Its better to go into Thanksgiving with +170,000 infections/day rather than 200,000 infections/day. Even if we're going to be reaching 200k infections/day one way or the other.

 

[HTC]

I'm not sure what you're referring to about Alzheimer's.... And, this really won't be "wrapped up" any time immediately. The vaccines will take an extended time to deliver, and hopefully they'll focus on critical workers first, like health care/care givers.

So much this: the way this virus gets a "foothold" in retirement homes is via doctor / care giver when they go to there: by the time they find out they're infected, there are already multiple residents infected as well + other workers from the retirement homes.

Retirement homes are one of, if not THE main source of fatalities from this virus Worldwide.

 

[dragontamer5788]

You should all be optimistic. Jan 20th is right around the corner by about 57 days.. If the plan hasn't been forgotten due to Alzheimer's, this will all be wrapped up in no time.

Its the states that will ultimately be in charge of distribution. Maryland's draft plan (to be finished when more details come out) notes two distinct phases:

1. Priority distribution. Doctors, nurses, paramedics, Elderly, school teachers. Any "essential workers". This will almost certainly start in December, or January at the latest.

2. Everyone else, after the priority distribution is complete.

I've seen estimates like 6-9 months for the priority distribution period. It will take a long time to make the millions of vaccines (and distribute them out to even high-priority people). Since I almost certainly fall into low-priority, I'll probably get the vaccine in May or June.

Furthermore: all of these vaccines take 28-days to kick in. 21-days between the 1st and 2nd dose, and then 7-days after the 2nd dose to achieve immunity. So even if I'm vaccinated in June, I won't actually be immune until July 2021. The most reasonable, "optimistic" assumptions, seem to indicate a general-public availability in April or so.

 

[claes]

Well, there is a national plan for the US, but it’s super ambitious — we’ll see how much is actually implemented, how many states accept the help, etc; but free treatment and prevention for all Americans sounds like a pipe dream. Here’s hoping otherwise!

The Biden Plan to Combat Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Prepare for Future Global Health Threats

THE BIDEN PLAN TO COMBAT CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) AND PREPARE FOR FUTURE GLOBAL HEALTH THREATS For more information on Joe’s leadership during the Coronavirus pandemic, please visit here. For more information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention regarding the coronavirus, please...

joebiden.com

Apologies for OT post/wrong thread, and also for posting a campaign site as a source — couldn’t find any articles that explore the plan

 

[Tatty_Two]

The last thing I saw reported on any of the current 3 vaccines (notwithstanding final approvals) is that full immunity will not be assured until 28 days after the 2nd dose. Our Government has already made the bold statement that the whole adult population will be vaccinated by Easter …….. lets see if they can not disappoint for a change , they have published a draft plan, which of course could change as they seem to think that approval of the Oxford vaccine will be granted by the end of the first week of December otherwise the draft plan becomes the "no plan" as they envisage vaccinations commencing sometime in the 2nd week of December (beginning 3rd week latest), the order of battle seems to be along the lines of ……..

1. Healthcare and Social care workers plus elderly care home residents.
2. 80+
3. All with chronic underlying conditions
4. 75+
5. Other essential services (police, fire etc etc)
6. 65+
etc etc

That is one seriously big logistical operation, I suppose on the brighter side, getting old has some perks for a change, if it goes to plan (unlikely), I would need to have mine by early February.

 

[harm9963]

Travels upheaval .

 

[dragontamer5788]

A slight decline in hospitalizations. Note that %Positive has declined since a few days ago.

With thanksgiving gatherings happening across the country (and Maryland), I'm pretty sure things will go back up over the next week or so. But once again: seeing a slight decline "before" Thanksgiving is a better sign than seeing things get worse.

Confirmed cases are still over +2000/day. And %Positive could very well be the "Thanksgiving rush" (I know multiple friends who took a test to "protect" themselves for Thanksgiving: taking a test before gathering. I'm not sure if I approve of the strategy, but I'm happy to see people at least trying to protect themselves).

 

[Tatty_Two]

Apparently, as England enters it's last few days of a 4 week lockdown the UK's "R" rate is down to 1-, I wonder how long that will last as Xmas has opened up 5 days where 3 households can come together for festivities (but you cannot change the 3 by having different households different days)...……………………..

UK coronavirus R-rate drops below 1 for first time in three months

 

[harm9963]

Summer was just a warm up

 

[Ahhzz]

Summer was just a warm up View attachment 177246

Yeah, I don't think anyone with any sense doubted that this would swell up on us in the colder months, at least until we start seeing widespread vaccines...

 

[dragontamer5788]

Apparently, as England enters it's last few days of a 4 week lockdown the UK's "R" rate is down to 1-, I wonder how long that will last as Xmas has opened up 5 days where 3 households can come together for festivities (but you cannot change the 3 by having different households different days)...……………………..

UK coronavirus R-rate drops below 1 for first time in three months

Good news but bad article.

Government scientists have said the number across the UK is now between to 0.9 and 1.0.
That means that currently every 10 people with Covid-19 pass the virus to one other person on average.

Ugggghhhhh... You'd think they'd have learned how R works by now.

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 80838 active cases --- 3104 less --- 443.4 fewer per day
- 209534 recovered --- 36615 more --- 5230.7 more per day
- 4427 fatalities --- 530 more --- 75.7 more per day
- 294799 confirmed infected --- 34041 more --- 4863 more per day

- 4353234 tests taken --- 285499 more --- 40785.6 more per day but was last updated November 23rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 80288 under watch --- 1379 less --- 197 fewer per day
- 3245 hospitalized --- 94 more --- 13.4 more per day
- 536 in ICU --- 45 more --- 6.4 more per day

The difference in the map is because the scale changed: the scale we used last week had 240+ as the highest but the scale quadrupled and now the highest is 960+ (both scales pictured below). We're still separating by counties and, depending by the accumulated 14 day daily new cases average, those that have the darkest color have the strictest restrictions, including curfews. Under the "new scale", we currently have 47 counties with "extremely high risk", 80 counties with "very high risk", 86 counties with "high risk" and the remaining 65 counties with "moderate risk".

It seems the measures we put in place are having their effects noticed, @ least as far as new daily cases are concerned, and hospitalizations / ICU also increased less VS last week. Unfortunately, and though small, the fatalities increased more VS last week. We're expected to reach 300K infected cases in the next two or three days and possibly even the grim mark 5K deaths by next Sunday, or the following day

Both active cases and under watch have dropped again: let's hope this time is because they ACTUALLY DROPPED and not because of "data analysis method change" or some "miscommunication of results", unlike last week ...

 

[dragontamer5788]

One week after Thanksgiving. What has happened?

1. Confirmed cases remains in the 2000 to 3000 region (its very random day-to-day)

2. %Positive has gone from 6.5% to 7.5%ish. I've theorized that a number of people last week were "depressing" %Positive by proactively seeking tests ahead of Thanksgiving.

3. Hospitalized is ~0 to +50 day, which is an improvement from last week (when we were +50 to +100). The -5 hospitalizations is a good sign overall, but we're basically at April/May levels of danger in my area.

--------

Deaths proves to be a lagging indicator once again. We've been having ~10 to 20 deaths for a long time, but now deaths are spiking to 40 to 50 deaths/day, nearly a month after hospitalizations began to rise. I don't like grabbing the death statistics and rubbing it into people's faces, but I have a fair number of friends and acquaintances who thought that this spike "would be different" and that death's wouldn't go up. Well... there we go. Deaths are now up. That's why we keep an eye on +Cases and +Hospitalizations, because deaths always follow suit.

 

[dragontamer5788]

And just like that, +3792 cases in one day, 8% positive (the highest since April, when we didn't have enough tests).

Maryland has a population of ~6 million, if anyone wants to compare it to their own local area. At this point, I can safely call this a "Thanksgiving Bump", its about on schedule (a few days late: symptoms usually start around day 5ish. But maybe it took 3ish days for them to be worried about it, get a test, and for the test to be officially counted).

Hospitalizations continue to climb. Most hospitalizations in Maryland are not COVID-related, but we only have 10,000ish beds. Total hospital beds (including non-COVID cases) is currently around 7000ish. Hospital care isn't rationed or scarce yet, but if this surge continues, we could run out of beds in the coming weeks. There's a plan to temporarily get +10% beds, or a total of 11,000 beds, for the state by temporarily authorizing more student-nurses to take care of patients, to be enacted as we cross by the 8000-beds used mark (total-beds, including non-COVID cases).

 

[Tatty_Two]

Well, we (England only) have just come out of a 4 week lockdown this Wednesday, it was pretty bad before it so this is where we find ourselves as at today, this is for the whole of the UK...…………………...

England (approx 57 million people) have now gone into a 3 tier system of restrictions, only 3 small areas of the country are in a good enough state to enter tier 1 currently, the rest of us are in tier 2 (high) or tier 3 (Very high), they will be reviewed every 2 weeks ……. to give some context, where I live is in tier 2 and we currently have 116 cases per 100,000. All shops will remain open, other than that restrictions for the 2 main tiers are ........

Tier 2 - High

• No household mixing indoors, Rule of six outdoors
• Pubs and restaurants to shut at 11pm - alcohol only served as part of substantial meal
• Limited numbers of people allowed at sporting events and live performances

Tier 3 - Very high

• No household mixing indoors
• No household mixing outdoors in private gardens or hospitality venues
• Rule of six in outdoor public spaces, such as parks
• Pubs and restaurants will be closed - except for takeaway/delivery
• Indoor entertainment venues will be closed
• Guidance against travelling in and out of the area

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 74456 active cases --- 6382 less --- 911.7 fewer per day
- 243055 recovered --- 33521 more --- 4788.7 more per day
- 4963 fatalities --- 536 more --- 76.6 more per day
- 322474 confirmed infected --- 27675 more --- 3953.6 more per day

- 4722013 tests taken --- 368779 more --- 36877.9 more per day but was last updated December 3rd and it includes antigen tests as well
- 77420 under watch --- 2868 less --- 409.7 fewer per day
- 3268 hospitalized --- 23 more --- 3.3 more per day
- 514 in ICU --- 22 less --- 3.1 less per day

The measures we put in place are DEFINITELY having their effects noticed. New cases have dropped by over 900 per day VS last week, hospitalized increased very slightly, and ICU even dropped instead of increasing. Unfortunately, and though small, the fatalities increased more VS last week: we're expected to reach 5K deaths tomorrow, just like i said in my previous update

We still have WAY TOO HIGH numbers though

 

[harm9963]

Just sad

 

[dragontamer5788]

I made a big deal when we went inflected-down (2nd derivative shrinking) back ad the end of November. So I think its only fair that I point out that we've been inflected upwards for the past week. Where "we" is the USA in general. This isn't surprising to me at all: Thanksgiving happened. Of course cases are going to accelerate.

"Inflection" describes the 2nd derivative. The 1st derivative follows the 2nd derivative, and finally the 0th derivative (total cases) follows the 1st derivative. So inflection is a "noisy signal", but its forward looking.

 

[Vayra86]

Its gonna be a wonderful Christmas, after not locking down in autumn! Here we go!

 

[EarthDog]

I made a big deal when we went inflected-down (2nd derivative shrinking) back ad the end of November. So I think its only fair that I point out that we've been inflected upwards for the past week. Where "we" is the USA in general. This isn't surprising to me at all: Thanksgiving happened. Of course cases are going to accelerate.

View attachment 178555

"Inflection" describes the 2nd derivative. The 1st derivative follows the 2nd derivative, and finally the 0th derivative (total cases) follows the 1st derivative. So inflection is a "noisy signal", but its forward looking.

pretty sure I called this immediately after the previous post you're talking about. No way was that going to stay trending down with the case load going up. Stupid holidays... lol.

Inflection values and making predictions off of them seems a bit myopic considering the small datasets used to derive the inflection angle.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Its gonna be a wonderful Christmas, after not locking down in autumn! Here we go!

At least you guys don't have Thanksgiving... and Christmas and then New Years.

This string of holidays is just going to wreak the USA. Its innate to our culture to party multiple times at this time, and its often the only time we ever get to see family or some friends (especially because our country is so large). Seattle, Chicago, Omaha, Florida, California, Texas... I got friends and family all over and I would absolutely prefer to see them in person. The end-of-the-year holidays are the traditional time for all of these flights / meetings to take place.

Not this year... for me. But the tradition runs strong in the USA's culture. Its what connects us together. Its going to be extremely difficult to counteract it. My own mother held Thanksgiving, and a cousin who attended tested positive just 2 days afterwards. I can't even convince my own mother about the dangers of parties at this time.

One big holiday is bad enough. But I count ~4 holidays during this time: Thanksgiving, Friendsgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas, New Years. (Thanksgiving is traditionally family, so "friends" are often not part of it. "Friendsgiving" is a made up holiday to meet up with other friends. Hanukkah / Christmas are religious in nature)

 

[Vayra86]

At least you guys don't have Thanksgiving... and Christmas and then New Years.

This string of holidays is just going to wreak the USA. Its innate to our culture to party multiple times at this time, and its often the only time we ever get to see family or some friends (especially because our country is so large). Seattle, Chicago, Omaha, Florida, California, Texas... I got friends and family all over and I would absolutely prefer to see them in person. The end-of-the-year holidays are the traditional time for all of these flights / meetings to take place.

Not this year... for me. But the tradition runs strong in the USA's culture. Its what connects us together. Its going to be extremely difficult to counteract it. My own mother held Thanksgiving, and a cousin who attended tested positive just 2 days afterwards. I can't even convince my own mother about the dangers of parties at this time.

That's just it... it baffles me how lacking the leadership is in most countries - its not just the US. We have a good handle on it here... not leading by example, not having any vision of the (near) future... its annoying. It all 'happens' and then lots of important people get on TV telling us how bad it is now. No shit? How about taking action before the fact... in a positive way.

Thanksgiving was a fantastic way for your country's leaders to come out with the message 'flatten the curve, so you can get together later'... its so simple... and yet... not a word. Here in NL, wrt Christmas and our (just passed) 'Sinterklaasfeest'... we also have a string of traditional days happening and yet we let the curve climb to new heights just weeks before.

Even simple things that were asked for, such as a message from government saying 'no physical Black Friday shopping, go online!' were not being done. Its like...whuuut?!

Look at us hammering down that curve boi

 

[Tatty_Two]

We did have a 4 week lockdown and are now in pretty tight tiered restrictions, infections have come down, R rate is below 1, so for 5 days over Xmas we are going to relax and allow 3 family households to come together, so January and February (the critical months for normal non Covid winter pressure) will have us at best back to pre lockdown levels and at worst back in lockdown whilst we try to vaccinate the population.

 

[Vayra86]

We did have a 4 week lockdown and are now in pretty tight tiered restrictions, infections have come down, R rate is below 1, so for 5 days over Xmas we are going to relax and allow 3 family households to come together, so January and February (the critical months for normal non Covid winter pressure) will have us at best back to pre lockdown levels and at worst back in lockdown whilst we try to vaccinate the population.

All we really get is a baseline of daily infected that keeps going up - everyone around the globe except in the countries that straight up initiate hard lockdowns and then get a very tight system of test and trace in place (which is actually maintained and controlled, not this panic mode version we have in EU). Look at that curve up here. The only way we brought it down was by locking down. Everything weaker than that is just going to let it grow, slowly and painfully, its a torture path more than anything else... And a great way to devolve into getting 'used to' the measures that are in place now. Not good, and as predicted...

We may end up more restrictive in our policy than authoritarian regimes elsewhere just because of our incompetence. In the name of 'good health'... lol
_____
EDIT:
And just one day later... woopsie! More net hospitalizations while this number trails the infected count you see above. Black Friday shopping says hello

Here's the updated graph of yesterday on infected count. Hi, we're back again... the beginning of exponential growth as this also crosses over the usually lower weekend.
Percentage of % tested being positive is also rising.

I seriously wonder how many more curves we have to go through before leaders realize you have to PRE EMPT this.

Sit, watch and respond should be a crime punishable by death. It really is, except not for the perpetrators. Its our paradox... we want to wait on all data to make the best decisions, but by then you've lost the optimal moment already.