TrendForce: TSMC to Mass-Produce Select Intel Products, CPUs Starting 2021

[RH92]

Yes I do.

Invasion by China would literally destroy the CPU (and other component) market, drive prices somewhere halfway between Earth and Sun and potentially give China control over said market (if Taiwan does not destroy factories, in which case bye bye new CPUs for years (literally)). There are far from enough fabs outside Taiwan to offset this and new ones are built slowly and sparingly.
Not to mention the whole nasty business that is war...

Let me correct this for you .... YOU THINK you do .... but you factually don't !

See this is the trully fascinating part with you or so to say peoples like you , this persistence to believe into distorted realities while on the same breath rejecting the only and one factual reality . Let's enter into your distorted reality and asume that indeed China does invades Taiwan , please tell me now : What in this world makes you think that it's in Chinas interest to change anything to how current Taiwanese governance does business with the rest of the world ? It's not like mainlad China is already the biggest supplier of this world and does already business with the rest of the world in perfectly fine and respectable terms .... right ... RIGHT ????

Do you even sense how delusional and out of touch with reality your perception of the world is ? Of course you don't , otherwise you wouldn't be here making this ludicrous arguments !

Oh yes I do have a point. Does your "USA bad, NSA is spying on us all, it is all propaganda about China" thropes have a point? Well, others can decide that, but I do not think so.

Did that guy just called factual events such as NSA spying on the entire world and forcing American tech companies to implement backdoors in their products , ... '' thropes '' .... right you heard it here folks , NSA spying is just fake news . This last sentence of yours put's the final nail on this argument coffin , i can't argue with peoples who reject facts !

 

[HD64G]

If that's true, it is simply the admition of defeat on the manufacturing aspect that forced them to do this move.

 

[TheLostSwede]

@RH92 You're clearly utterly clueless when it comes to Taiwan and what's going on so please, stop.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

"According to a market analysis from TrendForce, Intel's manufacturing efforts with TSMC will go way beyond a potential TSMC technology licensing for that company's manufacturing technology to be employed in Intel's own fabs. The market research firm says that Intel will instead procure wafers directly from TSMC, starting on 2H2021, in the order of 20-25% of total production for some of its non-CPU products. But the manufacturing deal is said to go beyond that, with TSMC picking up orders for Intel's Core i3 CPUs in the company's 5 nm manufacturing node - one that Intel will take years to scale down to on its own manufacturing capabilities."

What so Tsmc making intel chips is a step beyond Tsmc passing intel it's 7nm and beyond processes for use in its fabs ?!, Err no, while costly and embarrassing, buying chips off Tsmc will be considerably cheaper and and much smaller crazy step than Tsmc passing intel it's advantage.

I'm calling balls on it, trendforce are guessing, and getting it wrong ,Tsmc may make GPU for intel but I can't see CPU going there, unless intel go chiplet emib style on i3 and below and gave up using lower bins for them, causing Intel's wastages to increase or it can't happen.

Mostly based on wastage argument, where do they then sell their shit.

 

[Easo]

Let me correct this for you ....

I have nothing else to say to you. If you are unaware how big businesses are run in China including foreign ones, or what the fact of invasion itself would mean and lead to, then there is no point in discussing it.

 

[Mescalamba]

Given Taiwan has one big "friendly neighbor" I would be very careful with moving production there..

Most companies are full of greedy execs.

In point of fact, they have a legal fiduciary responsibility to maximize shareholder value. If you think Samsung, AMD, TSMC, etc etc are any different you are misguided.

The problem with Intel is that they were short-sighted, and in the end that led to a failure to maximize shareholder value. That resulted in the ouster of the old CEO and eventually several VPs over technology areas.

As far as AMD goes, they are not the ones that are beating Intel. TSMC is doing that. There is a big distinction there.

I pointed out at one time it would be interesting if Intel simply sucked up a big chunk of TSMCs capacity. AMD does not own fabs or process tech. Intel can outbid them, as can Apple and Qualcomm. Intel can also outproduce TSMC, who is not dedicated to AMD.

It sounds like ever increasing pricing pressure on AMD's ability to have someone fab their products is going to be real.

I also pointed out that Nvidia going with Samsung was genius. A lot of people laughed at that, because Samsung 8nm is inferior to TSMC 7nm.

Well, they're not laughing now. Nvidia is in a great spot with Samsung, who has tremendous production capacity with the capital, manpower, and skill to bring much more online. AMD, not so much, just a lot of paper launches and no production capacity.

I would say that Samsung is one of few companies where "greed" isnt the main motivator, or at least not only one. Or they unlike most of the greedy morons think about very long game, instead of instant profits. Either way, less stupid than most. Usually. They make some horrible flops now and then.

 

[Flanker]

Annnd another thread somehow turned political

 

[ValenOne]

TrendForce's speculative claims are not new.

From https://equalocean.com/news/2020072814360
Title: Intel Might Outsource 3nm, 5nm from TSMC
Article date: July, 2020

 

[RandallFlagg]

Given Taiwan has one big "friendly neighbor" I would be very careful with moving production there..


I would say that Samsung is one of few companies where "greed" isnt the main motivator, or at least not only one. Or they unlike most of the greedy morons think about very long game, instead of instant profits. Either way, less stupid than most. Usually. They make some horrible flops now and then.

I agree with that about Samsung. It is full of lifers, meaning people devoted to the company, and such people think medium and long term.

I tried to look up what Samsung was worth a while back. It's not one company, it's a Korean conglomerate, and it's absolutely enormous. Its real name is "Samsung Group". And by enormous, I'm not talking Intel or TSMC huge, it's way bigger than that. Outside of tech that bears its name of "Samsung Electronics", Samsung is into advertising, construction, medicine and health care, shipbuilding, retail, hospitality, financial services - and the list goes on. Samsung owns amusement partks. Samsung makes apartment complexes. Samsung has built powerplants, including a nuclear power complex in the UAE.

It's so big, I was unable to determine how much it really brings in as revenue. There are 59 Samsung subsidiaries outside of Korea that are not part of the reported official revenue.

 

[stimpy88]

This is not good for anyone. TSMC are too powerful, and yet too small at the same time. The effect of any large scale problems at its FAB would have very serious repercussions for the entire tech industry and beyond. I hope they have some serious expansion plans, ready to go very soon, as they are already unable to meet demand, let alone when Intel starts ordering hundreds of thousands of wafers per month.

But this sure is a testament to how far Intel have fallen.

 

[AnarchoPrimitiv]

At equivalent process node, AMD cannot compete. How long did it take for AMD to finally dethrone Skylake? F for AMD.

You seem to forget that Intel is worth 136 billion and AMD is only worth 6 billion, that means Intel has 2300% more financial resources than AMD and even 1000% more staff....the fact that AMD is able to not only compete, but win on such a comparatively shoestring budget is perhaps the most impressive feat in semi-conductors at present.

Either way, I wish AMD would have been able to capture more marketshare in mobile and enterprise before Intel started outsourcing, so that when Intel did begin outsourcing, AMD would be in a much stronger position to fight them. It's in everyone's best interests that AMD grows, and grows quickly otherwise we could be facing the same abysmal 5% performance increases year over year and innovation stagnation like we did before Zen.... And I will just give up on computers, and switch to ARM devices and consoles if Intel becomes the monoculture again. In a way, I wish Intel couldn't buy from TSMC and would be forced to lay in the bed they made for themselves... At least until AMD controlled 50% of the T.A.M. across all segments, then they could go to war, but I'm legitimately afraid of AMD being squeezed out again.

 

[Ravenas]

You seem to forget that Intel is worth 136 billion and AMD is only worth 6 billion, that means Intel has 2300% more financial resources than AMD and even 1000% more staff....the fact that AMD is able to not only compete, but win on such a comparatively shoestring budget is perhaps the most impressive feat in semi-conductors at present.

Either way, I wish AMD would have been able to capture more marketshare in mobile and enterprise before Intel started outsourcing, so that when Intel did begin outsourcing, AMD would be in a much stronger position to fight them. It's in everyone's best interests that AMD grows, and grows quickly otherwise we could be facing the same abysmal 5% performance increases year over year and innovation stagnation like we did before Zen.... And I will just give up on computers, and switch to ARM devices and consoles if Intel becomes the monoculture again. In a way, I wish Intel couldn't buy from TSMC and would be forced to lay in the bed they made for themselves... At least until AMD controlled 50% of the T.A.M. across all segments, then they could go to war, but I'm legitimately afraid of AMD being squeezed out again.

Nonsense.

AMD's market cap is 110.38 billion this morning, meaning they are worth 110.38 billion.
AMD - Stock quote for ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC. - MSN Money

Intel's market cap is 233.38 billion this morning, meaning they are worth 233.38 billion.

INTC - Stock quote for INTEL CORPORATION - MSN Money

AMD was worth the money you are talking about around 5 years ago after deciding to go fabless generating true gains with Zen1. The only company getting squeezed out currently is Intel. Apple controls the lion's share of fabs at TSMC, followed by Nvidia and AMD. Intel has needed to go semi fabless for some time now, just like AMD when they were stuck at fabs with 32nm.

TSMCs growth and fab shrinks are directly related to Apple. Apple dwarfs these other company in purchases from TSMC. Apple could purchase TSMC for their own manufacturing purchases (albeit one of the largest purchases ever made), but companies are trending away from fabbing.

 

[pjl321]

I was laughed at when I suggested this!

 

[RandallFlagg]

Nonsense.

AMD's market cap is 110.38 billion this morning, meaning they are worth 110.38 billion.
AMD - Stock quote for ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC. - MSN Money

Intel's market cap is 233.38 billion this morning, meaning they are worth 233.38 billion.

INTC - Stock quote for INTEL CORPORATION - MSN Money

AMD was worth the money you are talking about around 5 years ago after deciding to go fabless generating true gains with Zen1. The only company getting squeezed out currently is Intel. Apple controls the lion's share of fabs at TSMC, followed by Nvidia and AMD. Intel has needed to go semi fabless for some time now, just like AMD when they were stuck at fabs with 32nm.

TSMCs growth and fab shrinks are directly related to Apple. Apple dwarfs these other company in purchases from TSMC. Apple could purchase TSMC for their own manufacturing purchases (albeit one of the largest purchases ever made), but companies are trending away from fabbing.

Market cap just means what the stock is worth. A lot of that is perception. Feelings about future growth potential and so on, not necessarily connected to reality.

Hard assets are different matter. This is the value of AMD and Intel's hard assets as of the end of 2019, in milllions :

Intel :

AMD:

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) | Balance Sheet: Assets

Disclosure of AMD assets included in balance sheet (statement of financial position). Trend analysis of basic items.

www.stock-analysis-on.net

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) | Balance Sheet: Assets

Disclosure of Intel assets included in balance sheet (statement of financial position). Trend analysis of basic items.

www.stock-analysis-on.net

 

[Ravenas]

Market cap just means what the stock is worth. A lot of that is perception. Feelings about future growth potential and so on, not necessarily connected to reality.

Hard assets are different matter. This is the value of AMD and Intel's hard assets as of the end of 2019, in milllions :

Intel :
View attachment 184075

AMD:
View attachment 184076

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) | Balance Sheet: Assets

Disclosure of AMD assets included in balance sheet (statement of financial position). Trend analysis of basic items.

www.stock-analysis-on.net

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) | Balance Sheet: Assets

Disclosure of Intel assets included in balance sheet (statement of financial position). Trend analysis of basic items.

www.stock-analysis-on.net

When you're asking how much a publicly traded company is worth, you don't speak in terms of their assets. You speak in terms of their market capitalization.

There is no perception. Shares x share price.

 

[RandallFlagg]

When you're asking how much a publicly traded company is worth, you don't speak in terms of their assets. You speak in terms of their market capitalization.

There is no perception. Shares x share price.

The person you were responding to said "..You seem to forget that Intel is worth 136 billion and AMD is only worth 6 billion, that means Intel has 2300% more financial resources than AMD"

That is a correct statement as financial resources have little to do with the stock price. Intel literally has 6X the cash and cash equivalents than all of AMDs hard assets combined - meaning they can pull $36B together in a week or so.

AMD can't do that except by running the presses and making more stock, which would dilute their share price and most likely tank the stock they're selling.

So yes there *is* a difference between "funny money" aka stock valuations and cold hard assets.

 

[Ravenas]

The person you were responding to said "..You seem to forget that Intel is worth 136 billion and AMD is only worth 6 billion, that means Intel has 2300% more financial resources than AMD"

That is a correct statement as financial resources have little to do with the stock price. Intel literally has 6X the cash and cash equivalents than all of AMDs hard assets combined - meaning they can pull $36B together in a week or so.

AMD can't do that except by running the presses and making more stock, which would dilute their share price and most likely tank the stock they're selling.

So yes there *is* a difference between "funny money" aka stock valuations and cold hard assets.

A company’s worth on the market is not determined by cash on hand, investors would argue a good chunk isn’t their’s anyway. There is no way to possibly spin that. He said AMD is worth 6 billion, if AMD were worth 6 billion they would be gobbled up.

Cash on hand resources, assets, and employee counts are fine when trying to say Intel is a behemoth over AMD. However from a market worth standpoint, the comparison doesn’t work.

If you want to claim to me there is volatility in Market Capitalization , fair, but the number is still the gauge of the company worth.

 

[RandallFlagg]

A company’s worth on the market is not determined by cash on hand, investors would argue a good chunk isn’t their’s anyway. There is no way to possibly spin that. He said AMD is worth 6 billion, if AMD were worth 6 billion they would be gobbled up.

Cash on hand resources, assets, and employee counts are fine when trying to say Intel is a behemoth over AMD. However from a market worth standpoint, the comparison doesn’t work.

If you want to claim to me there is volatility in Market Capitalization , fair, but the number is still the gauge of the company worth.

You missed the point, again. Intel has far more resources to bring to bear, regardless of the bean counter "market cap" thought process you are talking about.

If Intel and AMD get into a bidding war for TSMC fab capacity, Intel will win, and it won't even break a sweat doing it. Intel has more resources, period.

 

[Ravenas]

You missed the point, again. Intel has far more resources to bring to bear, regardless of the bean counter "market cap" thought process you are talking about.

If Intel and AMD get into a bidding war for TSMC fab capacity, Intel will win, and it won't even break a sweat doing it. Intel has more resources, period.

The point was understood and wasn’t missed. I have not argued against this.

The data provided during explanation was incorrect by the OP I responded to, and yourself. The market worth comment both of you provided was incorrect data.

If you want to talk about a bidding war TSMC for fab space, you don’t reference company overall worth to assess their realistic bidding power. Intel isn’t going to go all in just to win a bidding war at TSMC for fab space where they either fold or win. They will use realistic capital on hand.

 

[RandallFlagg]

The point was understood and wasn’t missed. I have not argued against this.

The data provided during explanation was incorrect by the OP I responded to, and yourself. The market worth comment both of you provided was incorrect data.

If you want to talk about a bidding war TSMC for fab space, you don’t reference company overall worth to assess their realistic bidding power. Intel isn’t going to go all in just to win a bidding war at TSMC for fab space where they either fold or win. They will use realistic capital on hand.

He clearly states "Intel has 2300% more financial resources". This is 100% completely true statement and in context is talking about how much money, people, and materials Intel can bring to bear.

You're nit-picking the meaning of the word "worth". In terms of resources, stock market valuation means nothing, and whether "worth" means actual *assets* vs *stock market valuation* is highly debatable. If you were to shut down and liquidate AMD, you'd maybe get that $6B, whereas with Intel you'd probably get that $136B. Stock values are highly subjective, actual financial resources are not.

 

[Ravenas]

He clearly states "Intel has 2300% more financial resources". This is 100% completely true statement and in context is talking about how much money, people, and materials Intel can bring to bear.

You're nit-picking the meaning of the word "worth". In terms of resources, stock market valuation means nothing, and whether "worth" means actual *assets* vs *stock market valuation* is highly debatable. If you were to shut down and liquidate AMD, you'd maybe get that $6B, whereas with Intel you'd probably get that $136B. Stock values are highly subjective, actual financial resources are not.

Financial resources does not equal company worth. The company worth is the market capitalization. That's exactly what I said in my original reply. You are nit picking my words. You've reframed your argument twice since your original post. First it was market cap isn't company worth. Then it was no, he intended to say financial resources.

Further, your argument is poor. Neither company is going to do the scenarios you are trying to present. Mainly you've just reframed to get a talking point about financial resources.