Despite AMD Momentum, Intel Claws Back Market Share in Both Desktop and Mobile

[mechtech]

I guess anyone who ever said .......real men have their own fabs............. is getting a chuckle right now

Too bad for everyone though with supply constraints. It sucks.

 

[kapone32]

Yeah, it's just a matter of time. Just feel bad for anyone trying to build these days as you're quite limited in the choices you can make due to availability and pricing of silicon products.

Keeping things on topic, I see more and more people opting for Intel currently just because it's what's readily available. If availability wasn't an issue, I think the price increase that came with Zen 3 (a justified one in my opinion as they took the gaming lead) as well as the shift to a new socket next gen for both teams has hurt AMD a bit.

But isn't the thread about the last quarter? I don't disagree with what you are saying about the present though.

 

[dicktracy]

AMD lost the moment they increased their prices all across the board. TSMC's price hikes and limited capacities are also very scary for AMD's ability to compete today and the near future.

 

[evernessince]

Hi,
Drivers have always been the worst part of amd machines.

Irrelevant for CPUs. I've never heard of a CPU driver issue ever among any CPU series.

There's (according to the website anyway) 25+ 5600X's in stock (at MSRP) at the Microcenter near me. No other 5000-series processors unfortunately, but it's at least proof they exist. I'm tempted to pick one up with a B550 board to replace my 2600/B450 Gaming Pro Carbon, but I'm prioritizing spending that money replacing my 6 year old iPhone 6S that's on its last legs since my PC still handles everything just fine.

Unfortunately for the vast majority of people, they don't live near a microcenter.

Heck even if AMD's new CPUs were in stock I'd still not buy them. Pricing is terrible. $450 - $500 for a 7% performance increase is games, not enticing in the least.

 

[BSim500]

In the UK, an i5-10400F (6C/12T) costs £128, an i7-10700F (8C/16T) costs £241 and a Ryzen 5600X (6C/12T) costs £300. On top of that, motherboards of the same brand & model are also £40 or so more expensive (eg, £149 B550 vs £105 B460 both for MSI Mortar WiFi). AMD's supply chains are beyond borked at the moment and it's not hard to see why many are switching back to Intel the longer this goes on. For all the talk by geeky enthusiasts in tech forums over 7nm vs 14nm, it's ultimately availability that makes a sale.

 

[milewski1015]

But isn't the thread about the last quarter? I don't disagree with what you are saying about the present though.

Yeah, from Q3 2020 to Q4 2020, AMD's x86 market share dropped from 22.4% to 21.7%. Given that Q4 seems to be when shortages manifested themselves most (price increases on 3000 series due to no/low availability, 5000 series basically impossible to find aside from buying from scalpers, etc.), it makes sense. Availability is the issue here. Intel may not have been offering the best product at the time, but if it's the only thing available to buy, that's what consumers will purchase. Promos on 10th gen Intel CPUs helped make them more attractive to people that probably would have bought AMD instead. Even these days where availability is still poor (TSMC adding auto industry chips, AMD stretched thin producing both new consoles as well as CPUs and GPUs, etc.) I'm seeing more people building Intel just because it's what they can get their hands on.

 

[MikeSnow]

Since the 5800X costs roughly 500€ (4990 SEK) here I don't see myself moving over to AMD anytime soon. But you can bet your horses that it's gonna have a decent discount once 11700K/F hits the market. AMD playing Intel in this and age is nothing new and won't change anytime soon. Everything is about profits after all.

Here the 5800X is 378 EUR before tax (450 EUR including VAT). Availability is OK for the 5600X, 5800X and 5900X, they have been in stock for over a month, but the 5950X is still out of stock.

 

[Deleted member 197223]

Here the 5800X is 378 EUR before tax (450 EUR including VAT). Availability is OK for the 5600X, 5800X and 5900X, they have been in stock for over a month, but the 5950X is still out of stock.

Stock will pretty much look the same across EU.

 

[Chrispy_]

Hardly surprising.

Can't buy Renoir (no stock)
Can't buy Ryzen 5000-series (no stock)
Can't buy Radeon 6000-series (no stock)
Can't buy Radeon 5000-series (no stock)
Can't buy a single AMD laptop with more than 8GB soldered, un-upgradeable RAM (no design wins)

It's truly sad how if I want a decent laptop I have to go Intel. Such cripplingly-bad specs preventing any AMD laptops from being worth buying.
It really shouldn't be that hard to find a 12-month old processor with 16GB dual-channel RAM and a display that isn't a better fit for the sub-$500 entry-level compromise models, but it is. In many cases, it's not even that there's no stock, it's that the OEM (Acer, Asus, HP, Lenovo) simply don't even offer anything that meets those pretty ordinary, exactly-what-anyone-sensible-would-be-looking-for criteria.

 

[tabascosauz]

Hardly surprising.

Can't buy Renoir (no stock)
Can't buy Ryzen 5000-series (no stock)
Can't buy Radeon 6000-series (no stock)
Can't buy Radeon 5000-series (no stock)
Can't buy a single AMD laptop with more than 8GB soldered, un-upgradeable RAM (no design wins)

It's truly sad how if I want a decent laptop I have to go Intel. Such cripplingly-bad specs preventing any AMD laptops from being worth buying.
It really shouldn't be that hard to find a 12-month old processor with 16GB dual-channel RAM and a display that isn't a better fit for the sub-$500 entry-level compromise models, but it is. In many cases, it's not even that there's no stock, it's that the OEM (Acer, Asus, HP, Lenovo) simply don't even offer anything that meets those pretty ordinary, exactly-what-anyone-sensible-would-be-looking-for criteria.

Renoir can be readily found on eBay. The prices aren't as ridiculous as the newly price-bumped 3000 or scalped 5000 CPUs. Makes for an excellent HTPC or overclocker with a 2DIMM board and some B-die or Rev.B.

Lenovo has quite a number of Renoir models either ready to ship or ordered in a short timeframe. Off the top of my head I can think of the X13 that you can customize with 16GB of soldered-down 3200, but there are other size models on there. They've been running some mad sales in the past half year. That said, Lenovo is not a company you want to buy the base config from, same as Dell.

Not cheap, obviously, but thin and lights with decent specs never are. And well, AMD wants to shed the budget brand image...

Other than that, agree, the availability is garbage and these results shouldn't be of any surprise. Regardless of whether AMD's problems stem from TSMC shortages or part suppliers, newly announced Cezanne can look forward to the same lukewarm success as Renoir if supply does not improve.

 

[RandallFlagg]

This is what it looks like. AMD and Intel sales reps talking to a major OEM:

Big OEM: We need consistent high volume supply, our margins are razor thin and we can't risk production downtime due to lack of parts. How many chips can you give us each month?

Intel: We make 240 million CPUs a year, we can guarantee you 100,000 every month on the first of the month, with an option to extend that to 150,000 if notified 3 months in advance. You can also pay us 90 days net, we don't need the cash.

Big OEM: AMD how about you?

AMD: Well we need to get with TSMC and make sure our allocation gets here on time, plus we are moving some allocations for Microsoft and Sony. Marketing is also telling us we're getting flack from users in the DIY space which is causing some negative press, so we need to reallocate some of our wafers to GPUs, we're also trying to make server inroads and you know how big those chips are....

Big OEM: Uhhh... We'll get back to you AMD. Hello Intel.

 

[Chrispy_]

Renoir can be readily found on eBay. The prices aren't as ridiculous as the newly price-bumped 3000 or scalped 5000 CPUs. Makes for an excellent HTPC or overclocker with a 2DIMM board and some B-die or Rev.B.

Lenovo has quite a number of Renoir models either ready to ship or ordered in a short timeframe. Off the top of my head I can think of the X13 that you can customize with 16GB of soldered-down 3200, but there are other size models on there. They've been running some mad sales in the past half year. That said, Lenovo is not a company you want to buy the base config from, same as Dell.

Not cheap, obviously, but thin and lights with decent specs never are. And well, AMD wants to shed the budget brand image...

Other than that, agree, the availability is garbage and these results shouldn't be of any surprise. Regardless of whether AMD's problems stem from TSMC shortages or part suppliers, newly announced Cezanne can look forward to the same lukewarm success as Renoir if supply does not improve.

Ebay?
Where's my "new, unopened box"?
Where's my retail warranty and consumer rights protection?

Ebay is for used goods and scalpers only.

Renoir availability is region-specific. The most appealing options from Lenovo, for example are the Ideapad 7, the Ideapad 7 Slim, and the Yoga Slim. 4800U doesn't exist. 4700U only offered in 8GB soldered, and if I narrow myself to the UK market for a UK keyboard layout, 4500U is the only thing they'll sell. Hell, I found ONE laptop in the entire UK market this morning with >4600U and >8GB RAM and it was an imported Huawei Matebook D with a US keyboard.

I was on the "notify me" for the Ideapad 7 Slim and Yoga Slim with 4800U since February last year and not only have I never been notified, those models have actually been removed from the Lenovo UK website altogether. We get 8GB soldered garbage with worthless low-gamut screens and low-end CPUs. I'll blame Brexit because that's as illogical and stupid as anything else!

You're right though, If Cezanne doesn't get decent global design wins and AMD can't supply OEMs with the parts in time, it'll be a massive wall of unavailable mediocrity like Renoir. Tiger lake CPU performance and efficiency is still nowhere near Renoir but I'm tempted to defect to the inferior CPU simply because all of the good quality laptops with proper build-quality and nice screens are intel-only.

 

[tabascosauz]

Ebay?
Where's my "new, unopened box"?
Where's my retail warranty and consumer rights protection?

Ebay is for used goods and scalpers only.

Renoir was never released retail for North America or Europe.

Yeah everyone prefers a retail CPU, but don't lump Renoir in with the rest of the "no stock". You can easily get one by the end of the week. Without scalper prices. Without being "used". Just apply the usual eBay-fu, look for the reputable sellers with an ebay approved 30-day policy.

As for budget laptops, can't think of much aside from the
Acer Swift the cheap ultrabook with the incredibly shitty screen. Sadly, part of the "we're not the budget option" move.

 

[Chrispy_]

Renoir was never released retail for North America or Europe.

Yeah everyone prefers a retail CPU, but don't lump Renoir in with the rest of the "no stock". You can easily get one by the end of the week. Without scalper prices. Without being "used". Just apply the usual eBay-fu, look for the reputable sellers with an ebay approved 30-day policy.

As for budget laptops, can't think of much aside from the
Acer Swift the cheap ultrabook with the incredibly shitty screen. Sadly, part of the "we're not the budget option" move.

I think that's the problem. The ebay stuff isn't a UK keyboard, it's foreign imports with foreign keyboard layouts.
Would you want, for example, a German keyboard laptop bought through a third-party with no warranty at 25% higher than the MSRP?
It's not that Renoir laptops are impossible to buy, it's that none of the ones worth buying are available.

 

[Totally]

Waitaminute Intel lost market share in mobile? AMD actually had mobile ryzen parts that didn't just make it into vaporware?

 

[tabascosauz]

I think that's the problem. The ebay stuff isn't a UK keyboard, it's foreign imports with foreign keyboard layouts.
Would you want, for example, a German keyboard laptop bought through a third-party with no warranty at 25% higher than the MSRP?
It's not that Renoir laptops are impossible to buy, it's that none of the ones worth buying are available.

Sorry, for eBay I was referring to socketed Renoir. I'd never buy a laptop from a third party seller on eBay.

There's a Yoga Slim 6 config with a 4700U/16GB/1TB NVMe? Looks available. I'm a little rusty on my mental math exchange rate. Dunno how much you're willing to spend, but below a certain budget it's going to be impossible to find any acceptable thin and light regardless of hardware.

Im surprised at the lack of X and T series Thinkpads over the pond

 

[R0H1T]

Big OEM: Uhhh... We'll get back to you AMD. Hello Intel.

You apparently missed ~

Intel :- Here's your cheque

 

[RandallFlagg]

Waitaminute Intel lost market share in mobile? AMD actually had mobile ryzen parts that didn't just make it into vaporware?

No. Intel gained in both mobile and desktop market share. However, both companies are apparently shipping more units than ever before - AMD just got tapped out and can't make more. This was really evident in the Intel / AMD earnings reports, where overall sales went up +26% but Intel specifically shipped +33% more units - meaning it increased shipments more than the overall market increased.

I would bet this will be the same scene in Q1, perhaps even worse for AMD as they reportedly had 70-80% of their Q4 TSMC capacity mapped to PS5/Xbox. Their Q4 sales would mostly reflect what they got from TSMC / GloFlo in Q3, so Q1 is going to reflect that Q4 allocation.

Also - at least in Q4 - they likely had plenty of Zen 2 parts left to sell. Those are appear to be getting rarer now, meaning they have even less to sell. I would not expect to see AMD's supply situation let up until Q2 at the earliest.

Edit: I would like to see how the Macbook Air / Pro M1 is doing in market share. These are two of the most popular laptops on the planet, their switch to M1 should be having an impact.

 

[londiste]

You're right though, If Cezanne doesn't get decent global design wins and AMD can't supply OEMs with the parts in time, it'll be a massive wall of unavailable mediocrity like Renoir. Tiger lake CPU performance and efficiency is still nowhere near Renoir but I'm tempted to defect to the inferior CPU simply because all of the good quality laptops with proper build-quality and nice screens are intel-only.

Competitive Ryzen and AMD in laptops is relatively new.
Ryzen 2000 Mobile was Zen, Ryzen 3000 Mobile was Zen+. Both were only up to 4 cores and while especially Zen+ was competitive they did not beat Intel competition in anything. Perhaps price but nobody but OEMs really know that part.
Renoir is the first Ryzen that is noticeably better than what Intel competition and it came out in March 2020. A year is not that long time and AMD is noticeably picking up the pace - for a simple example just look at the "design wins" counts in the respective announcements. OEMs are taking note and rapidly moving there but the inertia in notebook market is real. Supply constraints obviously are not helping either.

 

[Chrispy_]

I think that's

Sorry, for eBay I was referring to socketed Renoir. I'd never buy a laptop from a third party seller on eBay.

There's a Yoga Slim 6 config with a 4700U/16GB/1TB NVMe? Looks available. I'm a little rusty on my mental math exchange rate. Dunno how much you're willing to spend, but below a certain budget it's going to be impossible to find any acceptable thin and light regardless of hardware.

Im surprised at the lack of X and T series Thinkpads over the pond

Oh, right, socketed Renoir. LOL.
I'm not sure I've even seen those and more importantly, what's the point?!

Renoir 8C/16T was a high-end, expensive part clearly targeting mobile feature sets and mobile TDPs. It's very out of place in the desktop APU market because those are mainly bought by people looking for ultra-budget machines that are too cheap to allocate budget to a dGPU, or the SFF crowd that wants something so tiny there's not even room for a dGPU and therefore expect near-zero GPU performance.

Desktop CPU availability of the 3000-series was great during Renoir's market window. 3600, 3700X, 3900X all fantastic options with plenty of availability and regular discounts.

Competitive Ryzen and AMD in laptops is relatively new.
Ryzen 2000 Mobile was Zen, Ryzen 3000 Mobile was Zen+. Both were only up to 4 cores and while especially Zen+ was competitive they did not beat Intel competition in anything. Perhaps price but nobody but OEMs really know that part.
Renoir is the first Ryzen that is noticeably better than what Intel competition and it came out in March 2020. A year is not that long time and AMD is noticeably picking up the pace - for a simple example just look at the "design wins" counts in the respective announcements. OEMs are taking note and rapidly moving there but the inertia in notebook market is real. Supply constraints obviously are not helping either.

I hope you're right.
I'm not seeing much from big laptop OEMs even in the "coming soon" or "out of stock" categories though. I think @RandallFlagg probably hit the nail on the head with this post.

 

[medi01]

20% of notebook market sounds too optimistic.

Since the 5800X costs roughly 500€ (4990 SEK) here I don't see myself moving over to AMD anytime soon. But you can bet your horses that it's gonna have a decent discount once 11700K/F hits the market. AMD playing Intel in this and age is nothing new and won't change anytime soon. Everything is about profits after all.

AMD's GM is a bit over 40%, Intel/NV are at 60%+, so, uh...

 

[renz496]

Hi,
Yeah eventually amd will flood the market just like they did 3k series this one is just taking longer.

how they will "flood" the market when TSMC can't produce enough wafer for AMD. yes AMD will gain market share but at one point the bottleneck on production will halt AMD effort of gaining market share. intel also aware about this.

 

[15th Warlock]

No surprise here, can’t gain market share if people can’t buy your products.

Zen 3 was such a joke of a launch, I ended up returning my Asus TUF X570 mobo, as both the 5900x and 5950x sold out in seconds, and instead bought an intel rig heavily discounted for Black Friday, can’t go wrong with an over $250 discount over msrp after rebates, and the product was readily available.

Rig runs like a dream and I never looked back.

Sorry AMD, you lost my business, maybe Zen 4 will be better?

 

[medi01]

This is what it looks like. AMD and Intel sales reps talking to a major OEM:

Big OEM: We need consistent high volume supply, our margins are razor thin and we can't risk production downtime due to lack of parts. How many chips can you give us each month?

Intel: We make 240 million CPUs a year, we can guarantee you 100,000 every month on the first of the month, with an option to extend that to 150,000 if notified 3 months in advance. You can also pay us 90 days net, we don't need the cash.

Big OEM: AMD how about you?

AMD: Well we need to get with TSMC and make sure our allocation gets here on time, plus we are moving some allocations for Microsoft and Sony. Marketing is also telling us we're getting flack from users in the DIY space which is causing some negative press, so we need to reallocate some of our wafers to GPUs, we're also trying to make server inroads and you know how big those chips are....

Big OEM: Uhhh... We'll get back to you AMD. Hello Intel.

Yeah, sure:

Polish source claims Nvidia and Intel worked together to block the marketing of premium AMD Ryzen 4000 laptops with high-end GPUs in 2020

Back in mid-2020, laptop OEMs explained that the inclusion of dGPUs more powerful than the RTX 2060 would not really make sense on Ryzen 4000H systems, as their performance would be limited by the 8x PCIe 3.0 lanes. However, the Ryzen 5000H systems still use only 8x PCIe 3.0 lanes, yet they come...

www.notebookcheck.net

 

[tabascosauz]

I think that's

Oh, right, socketed Renoir.
Not sure I've even seen those and more importantly, what's the point?!
Desktop CPU availability of the 3000-series was great during Renoir's market window. 3600, 3700X, 3900X all fantastic options with plenty of availability and regular discounts.


I hope you're right.
I'm not seeing much from big laptop OEMs even in the "coming soon" or "out of stock" categories though. I think @RandallFlagg probably hit the nail on the head with this post.

Might not be super budget or tough like an X13, but it is a 100% sRGB screen and 60Wh in a 13" package.

Lenovo Yoga 6 | Portable and powerful laptop | Lenovo UK

The all new Yoga 6 is ultra-portable with powerful features like AMD Ryzen™ processors with Radeon graphics, SSD storage, and a 13″ FHD display.

www.lenovo.com

As for desktop Renoir, it isn't helped by the core count increase but the 4350G is a pretty good value in light of the 3300X AWOL. Well, amongst AMD parts at least. Like I said, any of the three makes a good HTPC or memory overclocker, not a mainstream use case but it's there.

Wouldn't be surprised if Cezanne stayed tray-only as well. Relying on chiplet parts makes it easy to pump out 3600 like it's nobody's business, but the monolithic chips are where the market share is going to be.