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Global Warming & Climate Change Discussion

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qubit

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Aquinus

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The UK gets near tropical heat in the Scilly Isles from the jetstream. At that latitude, it shouldn't be that warm but a weather system brings the heat.
This is exactly the thinking with regards to the snow and cold temperatures in Texas. Some scientists believe that the jet stream is weakening and is going to allow more of these cases where very high and low temperatures are going to move further north or south than they would otherwise. Basically, the kind of weather that Texas saw is what NH gets all the time. The difference is that we're prepared for it and they're not.

@the54thvoid Damned fine explanation! Thankyou. :cool:
100%.
 
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This is false the opposite was observed, CO2 emissions, air pollution were at all time lows due to the virus and global temps INCREASED despite this. Right now the debate regarding this observation is current thinking of global warming is wrong or effects of present levels are delayed years. Whatyou just said is in your head and if you read it somewhere it's bs.

Just to keep the perspective very, very clear. Global warming leads to local climate change. An increase of 1 degree can have serious global effects but that may also mean shifting weather patterns. It's not as simple as some people love to parrot. Climate change creates weather instability. High atmospheric systems change course, as the oceans warm, they also affect patterns like El Nino. Just because it gets cold one year on one location, it doesn't mean global warming has stopped. The UK gets near tropical heat in the Scilly Isles from the jetstream. At that latitude, it shouldn't be that warm but a weather system brings the heat. The jetstream is vulnerable to shifting global temps, therefore, the Scilly Isles could be far colder in a global warming scenario.

The greatest systems for measuring global warming are retreating glaciers across the planet. There are places in east Antarctica (I think, from memory) where this is not happening. That gets used by global warming skeptics but the place has a different weather pattern. And despite claims, it is being affected. Skeptics use micro-climates to denounce climate change but the term is 'Global' for a reason. And also, the change has to be measured long term. One season is not enough to predict climate science. One bad winter doesn't mean global wamring has stopped.

that's it. climate change is what is behind the extreme weather conditions we have been seeing. back to back records with shit like the longest drought known to man in an area followed by the most rain fail then swinging back. it is not just global "warming" and people need to unlearn that way of looking at it.

the warming is putting more liquid fresh water into the system which will have effects on it which we do not fully understand. what we do understand is that all water is part of the weather and the increased amount, and heat, is causing more extremes in weather conditions. on all fronts. more rain in some places, which deprives other areas. more snow in places, some which we have never known to get it.

i am not totally convinced we are 100% of the cause, but i do think we play a part. this lock down has shown it as did the iceland volcano (in 2012 was it?). maybe we can help change it back, maybe we need to just adapt? hell maybe the plants and trees will save us by taking all the extra carbon dioxide and turning it into oxygen? we don't know.
 
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Really? then how come this is the lowest temps in over 20yrs was just observed here in Australia and that the USA is going through one of the coldest Winters in god knows how long? It cant be BS when its literally happening RIGHT NOW! Do you call it a coincidence that this has just happened to happen when the world stopped? Manufacturing lessened globally, Planes, cruise ships basically stopped! and then the temps dropped! and here in Australia where the Ozone layer is the thinnest the difference is amazing! So unless you got proof what your saying is BS as my proof is right here right now!

We have had this this polar vortex every year only difference is that each year progressively reaches further south, it happened last year and the year before, so? Obviously, you have your conclusion and latched on two the two events as proof ignoring everything else.
 
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There are some excellent explanations as to why “climate change” better explains the effects of global warming than warming does, but let’s not kid ourselves — the world is in fact getting hotter, even during a pandemic where emissions may have (?) been reduced:

 
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One bad winter doesn't mean global wamring has stopped.
Indeed global warming can be the cause of severe winters. There is geological evidence that shows that a warming period can trigger a cooling trend and even an minor ice age. There have been many instances that show a warming spike followed by a prolonged cold period. Time will tell...
 
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I seem to remember raging wildfires in Australia all over the news not so long ago. Funnily enough, those accompanied the hottest temperatures on record. Don't be a climate change denier.

Yep that was a yr ago, last summer, and what do you hear now? nothing, no raging fires, hardly any at all anywhere in the country, it went from 40c (where I live) last yr in early Feb to 24c at the exact same time a yr later, the entire summer where I am which would hit in the high 30s to low 40s for the past 20yrs and only gone up each yr has now barely even hit over 30c this year which we havent seen since the 90s and the ONLY thing that has changed since then is COVID and that the world basically stopped! Funny that hey?

were are you then melvis , ? to get this observation

Im in Australia which was just last year breaking records globally and 1 change and now our temps are back down to how it was in the 80/90s.
 

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There was raging fires in Perth matey... 81 homes lost. Didnt you see the news? 4th Feb this Year.

Perth Hills bushfire: 81 homes destroyed (news.com.au)

Nope first ive heard of it and thats in WA where summer is always hotter then over here on the east (NSW), but your not telling me the temps? what where they compared to the same time last yr? and thats nothing compared to last yrs summer lets face facts, last yr was a disaster Australia wide even in the cold climate areas......
 

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^^ I'm not sure there's any arguement going on here? Just a miscommunication?

Either way, Oz has always had bushfires, always will (as long as there's something left to burn).

Here's the best graph I could find for time and incidence of fires. Source



1614587489613.png
 

qubit

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Yep that was a yr ago, last summer, and what do you hear now? nothing, no raging fires, hardly any at all anywhere in the country, it went from 40c (where I live) last yr in early Feb to 24c at the exact same time a yr later, the entire summer where I am which would hit in the high 30s to low 40s for the past 20yrs and only gone up each yr has now barely even hit over 30c this year which we havent seen since the 90s and the ONLY thing that has changed since then is COVID and that the world basically stopped! Funny that hey?
Remember, correlation is not equal to causation.

Also, remember that climate change doesn't just mean steadily increasing temperatures everywhere like an evenly rising CPU temperature. It means wilder extremes of weather at both the hot and cold ends and the weather will always vary by a fair but moment to moment, anyway as there's a fair bit of chaos to it. @the54thvoid explained it all really well, here.

@Outback Bronze gave you a pretty good answer about continuing bushfires, too.

Don't be a climate change denier.
 
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i am not totally convinced we are 100% of the cause
I agree, warming/cooling cycles throughout the ages have always been associated with a corresponding increase/decrease in carbon dioxide and I am sure as hell there were no coal power plants or cars 100 000 years ago, for instance.

Do humans have something to do with it ? Seems like it but is it "100%" because of us ? No way, that simply can't be proven, historical data over the last hundreds of thousands of years shows that CO2 levels rise and fall without human intervention.

By the way, it has also being shown that CO2 emissions lag immensely an increase in temperature, by thousands of years sometimes, so even that is questionable.
 
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Remember, correlation is not equal to causation.

Also, remember that climate change doesn't just mean steadily increasing temperatures everywhere like an evenly rising CPU temperature. It means wilder extremes of weather at both the hot and cold ends and the weather will always vary by a fair but moment to moment, anyway as there's a fair bit of chaos to it. @the54thvoid explained it all really well, here.

@Outback Bronze gave you a pretty good answer about continuing bushfires, too.

Don't be a climate change denier.

Well no not exactly! no one said anything about it been "stopped" and that will never happen thats just common knowledge obviously, we all should know that after this Pandemic is over and the world goes back to how it was the temps will just rise back up again, that Im willing to bet. Yeah sure you might have a colder yr from another but of this magnitude at what everyone seems to just glide right over is that it is just a coincidence that the temps not just here but on the other side of world have dropped in lvls I havent seen in over 20yrs when the world just happened to stop. 15c is not a small drop, if anyone thinks it is your completely mad!

Outback Bronze didnt give a good answer he gave me a no shit sherlock answer which was then backed up by the54thvoid the very next post......so I dont know what your on about here honestly?

I also saw someone give links to stuff from 2020, talk about a facepalm moment there, last I can tell we are in 2021 not 2020 which if anyone remembers was the worst year in Australia we have ever seen in my entire life! Ive lived in the same area for basically 40yrs and I can tell you that since around the yr 2000 the temps have slowly gone up and up, yeah you might have a slight change one year now and again but it doesnt last long, we basically laughed when people would ask, Hey! how spring going for you? my reply what Spring? oh its over already its now summer (3 weeks into actual spring) and then those summer temps would last all the way to April, it was basically 6months of summer in Australia in which was never a thing ever! period! Now for the first time in over 2 decades the temps we have seen this summer and funny enough the end of spring have never been like this since the 80/90s. Its completely unheard of, to see temps up to 15c lower then any other time for this long at a time that just happens to be when the world came to a stop, again coincidence? pfft I dont think so, did it flip like a switch like alot of people on here tend to think it did? hell no it didnt, it took almost a yr before we started to see a difference.

But lets make time tell the full story, its only early in 2021, most other places in the world havent had summer yet but im willing to bet! that the temps are going to be lower by a good margin compared to the same time the yr before in places (like where i live) that havent seen such high scorching temps for long periods of time. But then again unless your live where the ozone layer is the thinnest you might not see as big of a difference but im willing to bet there will be some from this yr from the last and many before that.

Dont be a global warming denier
 
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I agree, warming/cooling cycles throughout the ages have always been associated with a corresponding increase/decrease in carbon dioxide and I am sure as hell there were no coal power plants or cars 100 000 years ago, for instance.

Do humans have something to do with it ? Seems like it but is it "100%" because of us ? No way, that simply can't be proven, historical data over the last hundreds of thousands of years shows that CO2 levels rise and fall without human intervention.

By the way, it has also being shown that CO2 emissions lag immensely an increase in temperature, by thousands of years sometimes, so even that is questionable.
I feel like it's time to post this again:

 
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I feel like it's time to post this again:

A 20 000 year window doesn't mean much, sorry. Very easy to make it look like it was exclusively because of humans, which it isn't.
 
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"defraud us of our money and freedom" is probably the most hilarious thing I have read in a while.
Fraud is the keyword and it's not hilarious at all. The issue is: when your 95% of scientists make predictions, people like self-appointed spokesman, AL Gore pick up those predictions and publicize those predictions, then...predictions do not come to pass, people get skeptical.
The 95% is a popular talking point. No set of humans, on any subject get to 95% agreement on anything, ever.

I am not a denier, I see the change, it's inevitable. But, we are not underwater in Florida.
 

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A 20 000 year window doesn't mean much, sorry. Very easy to make it look like it was exclusively because of humans, which it isn't.
I'm sorry, but that would just show that these things happen over a much longer time period than it is right now. @lexluthermiester is on point:
Yeah, but it's that spike at the end that we need to be worries about...
The problem isn't how much it's changing (yet). It's the rate of change that's alarming and extending the timeline only shows how much more crazy the current rate of increase is on average. The point of the picture is to show that these changes historically have happened over much longer periods of time and that is the point. What's happening now is unprecedented at the rate it's been progressing and it's ignorant to ignore that fact.
 
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The problem isn't how much it's changing (yet). It's the rate of change that's alarming and extending the timeline only shows how much more crazy the current rate of increase is on average.

Have I ever said anything about that ? I am just pointing out that evidence shows we are not the exclusive force driving it. Historical data shows we happen to be exactly around a peak of a warming cycle, that's unlucky for us since we've just started doing things that influences the climate as well but I can't help but notice how this coincidence was used to drive a narrative which was simply untrue, or, at the very best inaccurate, namely that global warming happened because of our actions.

Whether it was just an unfortunate misunderstanding or there was malicious intent behind this I don't know but I suspect it has damaged the credibility of the communities who valiantly advocated these points beyond repair.
 
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Have I ever said anything about that ? I am just pointing out that evidence shows we are not the exclusive force driving it. Historical data shows we happen to be exactly around a peak of a warming cycle, that's unlucky for us since we've just started doing things that influences the climate as well but I can't help but notice how this coincidence was used to drive a narrative which was simply untrue, or, at the very best inaccurate, namely that global warming happened because of our actions.

Whether it was just an unfortunate misunderstanding or there was malicious intent behind this I don't know but I suspect it has damaged the credibility of the communities who valiantly advocated these points beyond repair.
Historical data shows that the temperature of the planet has never changed this quickly and you seem to be really good at ignoring that fact. You're saying this like the rate of change is normal when it's not. The earth goes through cycles, but not this quickly.
 
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A 20 000 year window doesn't mean much, sorry. Very easy to make it look like it was exclusively because of humans, which it isn't.
It's not only us. But it is chiefly us, as we are the only thing that's changed during this period of massive warming. Occam's razor says it's probably us.

As others have pointed out, it has never happened this rapidly since the formation of the earth. Don't let the arbitrary and fun date on the chart fool you into thinking it's not significant. It's not at all about the timeframe, but the rate.
 
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You're saying this like the rate of change is normal when it's not.

Literally never said that or hinted at it, or even cared enough to do so to be honest. And the data doesn’t have a high enough sample rate to validate or disprove whether or not such rates have ever existed anyway. Because the thing is temperatures cannot rise indefinitely and even if you observe that a process has a high rate of growth it doesn’t mean that it will be stable enough in that state for long enough to affect the overall cycle.

Anyway I’ve said what I wanted to say, I know this isn’t really a discussion but rather a place where only certain popular ideas are accepted and anything that deviates form that is rejected so I’ll see myself out.
 
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Literally never said that or hinted at it, or even cared enough to do so to be honest. And the data doesn’t have a high enough sample rate
I dunno man. Geological samples can give you basically down to a 10 year period sample rate if you know what you are looking at. We'd see this right now in a geological sample if we dug it up 10000 years from now.
 

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A solid read, backed by some of the most concrete papers and evidence we have.

Consensus within climate scientists and people who haven't essentially been bought by energy companies to publish research that muddies the water etc. is that the changes that are happening now were set in motion decades ago. The fact we've largely increased global CO2 and methane emissions, while harvesting natural carbon dumps like forests and jungles, while also destabilising long term locked carbon deposits, like the peatlands that are off gassing due to warmed temperatures, or the ocean sediment that will be released when the deep sea currents (regulated by temperature, salty, cold dense water and warmer less salty water etc.) finally give up the ghost etc. etc. only add to this problem.

No matter how many carbon tax credits and such we trade internationally, we're in this together, and we aren't really taking the issue at a species wide response level that we need to.

This is an existential threat, and we are mostly insulated in multiple ways in the west (food, energy, manufacturing imports). You can see direct impacts of extreme, unseasonal weather in displaced peoples in India, Africa and most of Asia if you care to.

We need a war leader, and all we have are squabbling politicians trying to grab as much as they can from a broken system.

/rant

I'm not too hopeful, and am simply trying to develop the kind of skills that I'll need to protect and care for myself and my loved ones when society starts to crumble.
 

the54thvoid

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I'm always amazed by people who dismiss - not science - but the overwhelming majority consensus. This is a link (below) to an abundance of top-level agreement on human contribution. These aren't fringe scientists. They're not sponsored by specific interest groups linked to oil and gas. And even then, many oil and gas companies accept the human contribution too.


But I guess NASA knows fuck all, right?

As a separate and damning agreement from big oil (quote from defence in a in a court case):

“Chevron accepts the consensus in the scientific communities on climate change,” said Boutrous. “There’s no debate about climate science.” Boutrous made the case that oil companies are not directly responsible for climate change. Rather, he said, humanity’s larger economic decisions are to blame. Boutrous told Judge Alsup that the “IPCC does not say it’s the extraction of fossil fuels [that causes climate change], it’s the energy use — the economic activity — that generates emissions.” Boutrous deflected the blame to users of fossil fuels. In other words, oil doesn’t cause climate change. People burning oil causes climate change.

In other words, Chevron, some small poxy back-water oil salesman? (I know, right) - they basically state that oil extraction - which is what they do - is not to blame for climate change. The use of the product is. So, when an oil company rightly defends itself, it uses pure logic. The petro-chemical companies are not to blame. We are, for using it.

Case closed.

No wait. It's not. Here's what the other petro-chemical giants said:

1) ConocoPhillips: “ConocoPhillips Company understands that Chevron Corporation based its March 21 global warming and climate change science tutorial presentation on the IPCC science assessments, and in particular the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). ConocoPhillips Company does not disagree with the points made in the Chevron Corporation tutorial presentation on March 21, 2018.”


2) Royal Dutch Shell (RDS): “Although Royal Dutch Shell [RDS] does not necessarily adopt each statement contained in the various IPCC reports, RDS agrees that those reports are an appropriate source of information for the Court to consider to further its understanding of the timeline and science surrounding climate change, and RDS does not disagree with Chevron’s presentation of that material.”


3) British Petroleum (BP): “BP [British Petroleum] does not disagree with the tutorial presentation made by Chevron on March 21, 2018, and believes that it fairly responded to the Court’s tutorial request and questions.”


4) ExxonMobil: “ExxonMobil offers this statement in response to the Court’s order seeking an explanation regarding the extent to which ExxonMobil is aligned with statements made by counsel for Chevron:


• The risk of climate change is clear, significant, and warrants comprehensive policies to understand and address the risk.
• The climate system is warming in part due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Human activities, including the combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas — and driven largely by population size, economic activity, lifestyle, energy use, land use patterns, technology, and climate policy — have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
• IPCC Assessment Reports provide contemporaneous analyses of existing climate science research. The Assessment Reports are a reference point for understanding how scientific knowledge and confidence regarding human influence on climate have evolved over the past 30 years.”


In this manner, the oil companies attested to Judge Alsup that they agreed with Chevron’s presentation and offered no corrections to the record. Royal Dutch Shell went further and told Alsup that “the IPCC reports collect and assess information from a wide variety of sources including thousands of scientists around the globe and present a broad-based consensus view regarding climate change science.”

They all concurred with Chevron's brilliant defence. They themselves are not responsible for climate change. It is those who use and burn their fuels, a system driven by socio-economical factors beyond their control. Sublime.

It's the exact same principle for gun sales. People kill people. Guns are harmless until used. Oil doesn't cause increased atmospheric CO2. Burning it does.

Slam dunk.
 
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