AMD Expects Chip Shortage to Improve Next Year, According to CEO Lisa Su

[TheLostSwede]

Finally some potentially good news, as AMD's CEO Lisa Su is bringing hope that the current chip shortage situation might improve over the next 18 to 24 months according to a new piece on CNBC. She's expecting new chip fabs to have come online by then, although no details were mentioned, one would presume it involves TSMC in AMD's case.

Lisa Su is quoted saying "We've always gone through cycles of ups and downs, where demand has exceeded supply, or vice versa, this time, it's different." "The pandemic has just taken demand to a new level". This isn't exactly breaking news by now, but it also seems like the demand for computers has reached its peak and is now plateauing ahead of what will likely be a drop in sales come next year, but that doesn't mean the demand for chips will go down. Lisa Su is also expecting further consolidation in the industry, which has its upsides and downsides, but her take on it is that "if you want to do something very large for the industry, you know, scale is important." AMD should know this better than most companies, since they've scaled their business from the brink of bankruptcy to where they are today.


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[Metroid]

Truth here is that they will drag this shortage bs tag till they can to maximize profit, interesting thing is that all manufactures are going together in this and this is bad for consumers. You as a consumer, boycot it all is the only thing that will fix it, don't fal for the bs.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Truth here is that they will drag this shortage bs tag till they can to maximize profit, interesting thing is that all manufactures are going together in this and this is bad for consumers. You as a consumer, boycot it all is the only thing that will fix it, don't fal for the bs.

All of the numbers of these public companies are public.

We just need to count the number of units sold. And lo and behold: there are many more computer sales this year than before. Work-from-home means that a large number of people deck'd out their home offices with computer equipment of all kinds. Under these conditions, an increase in demand (and therefore: lower supply) is just natural.

 

[Metroid]

All of the numbers of these public companies are public.

We just need to count the number of units sold. And lo and behold: there are many more computer sales this year than before. Work-from-home means that a large number of people deck'd out their home offices with computer equipment of all kinds. Under these conditions, an increase in demand (and therefore: lower supply) is just natural.

As long as you think that way, they know they can still continue the bs. They control the supply, funny when supply was 10 times larger than demand prices were still the same hehe, i mean msrp was msrp right? oh now that msrp does not apply right but used to apply when everything was good. You trolls need to stop accepting the bs then things will change till then like I said before they will still continue with the bs. Funny people think problem are still scalpers, yeah in the beginning it was scalpers and I think inside people that knew manufactures would lower the supply to increase prices bought all the gpu they could and then resell 10 times higher, funny it was such a long time ago, and people still say scalpers, wake up trolls. So I guess now we know it was always a shady scheme to increase gpu prices and manufactures of all gpus are together in this and sheeps think everything is good ehhe -- > "supply demand" hehe, sheeps will always be sheeps.

 

[neatfeatguy]

By the time the chip "shortages" end, you might actually be able to purchase a RX 6000 series card for the actual MSRP because the RX 7000 series will be out and they'll be overpriced.

 

[thesmokingman]

Elon Musk says the chip shortage is a ‘short-term’ problem

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Friday that the ongoing semiconductor crisis will be over by next year.

www.cnbc.com

Musk's sentiments align with Su's.

 

[GhostRyder]

Well dang, 18-24 months is a long ways off. Is what it is but man its hard right now.

 

[Colddecked]

As long as you think that way, they know they can still continue the bs. They control the supply, funny when supply was 10 times larger than demand prices were still the same hehe, i mean msrp was msrp right? oh now that msrp does not apply right but used to apply when everything was good. You trolls need to stop accepting the bs then things will change till then like I said before they will still continue with the bs. Funny people think problem are still scalpers, yeah in the beginning it was scalpers and I think inside people that knew manufactures would lower the supply to increase prices bought all the gpu they could and then resell 10 times higher, funny it was such a long time ago, and people still say scalpers, wake up trolls. So I guess now we know it was always a shady scheme to increase gpu prices and manufactures of all gpus are together in this and sheeps think everything is good ehhe -- > "supply demand" hehe, sheeps will always be sheeps.

I think you are underestimating the effect scalpers are still having. They're one of the groups making money during all of this, and they use that money to buy more stock. AMD and Nvidia see these guys reselling the cards for 100% MSRP, so obviously they adjust pricing. If you think this is a manufacture supply problem, why are there dozen of ads on ebay/craigslist/fb marketpace vendors advertising in stock just +50% over msrp.

 

[mechtech]

bringing hope that the current chip shortage situation might improve over the next 18 to 24 months according to a new piece on CNBC.

In 2 years from now I would hope so. Everyone mark your calendars.

 

[N3utro]

As long as you think that way, they know they can still continue the bs. They control the supply, funny when supply was 10 times larger than demand prices were still the same hehe, i mean msrp was msrp right? oh now that msrp does not apply right but used to apply when everything was good. You trolls need to stop accepting the bs then things will change till then like I said before they will still continue with the bs. Funny people think problem are still scalpers, yeah in the beginning it was scalpers and I think inside people that knew manufactures would lower the supply to increase prices bought all the gpu they could and then resell 10 times higher, funny it was such a long time ago, and people still say scalpers, wake up trolls. So I guess now we know it was always a shady scheme to increase gpu prices and manufactures of all gpus are together in this and sheeps think everything is good ehhe -- > "supply demand" hehe, sheeps will always be sheeps.

The people you call "sheeps" are actually miners who even while buying GPUs at overinflated prices are still making money from it. The more they get the more money they make. So while you think the problem is regular people buying overpriced GPUs, in the real world even at this price it's actually worth it for miners.

 

[Metroid]

The people you call "sheeps" are actually miners who even while buying GPUs at overinflated prices are still making money from it. The more they get the more money they make. So while you think the problem is regular people buying overpriced GPUs, in the real world even at this price it's actually worth it for miners.

They are not making money from it, they are just trying to break even, a 3080ti costs 2500 usd, per month if 24/7 they will earn 110 usd, now lets see 2500/110 = that is 23 months which is 2 years, even if a miracle makes them earn 110 usd per month happens, because the crash will come just like 2011, 2014 and 2018 and then they will have negative gains, now we see 23 months, next month or even tomorrow could be 10 to 20 years to get their money back. I know many people from 2018 that had to sell their gpus in 2019 to pay their debts and they even did not break even, more like they got 30% of their money invested with the selling of their gpus plus the coins they mined, you trolls think that mining is a quick get rich scheme, mining is for losers, who earns real money are the ones who play the market, the manipulators, miners are the sheeps or goats of crypto.

 

[big_glasses]

isn't this expected and somewhat well known by now?
it's affecting a lot of other industries also (Tesla as someone else mentioned, for example)

 

[Metroid]

I think you are underestimating the effect scalpers are still having. They're one of the groups making money during all of this, and they use that money to buy more stock. AMD and Nvidia see these guys reselling the cards for 100% MSRP, so obviously they adjust pricing. If you think this is a manufacture supply problem, why are there dozen of ads on ebay/craigslist/fb marketpace vendors advertising in stock just +50% over msrp.

Scalpers are industry inside people who know things. So in essence who are making money are still manufactures, the term scalpers is just to hide the truth behind the shady scheme manufactures have been playing with you trolls, they will drag as long as they can then they will crash the crypto market then they will stay months without manufacturing a single gpu because second hand market will be a thing. Ask sapphire, gigabyte what happened to them after the crypto market crashed in 2018, they stopped all the manufacturing of gpus or shifted for other things for months, know why? because they knew they would not sell any gpu. They had new manufactured stock that lasted for as long as 2 years. Know why we stayed a long time in that 14nm? yeah crypto crashed and gpu manufacture went with it.

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

As long as you think that way, they know they can still continue the bs. They control the supply, funny when supply was 10 times larger than demand prices were still the same hehe, i mean msrp was msrp right? oh now that msrp does not apply right but used to apply when everything was good. You trolls need to stop accepting the bs then things will change till then like I said before they will still continue with the bs. Funny people think problem are still scalpers, yeah in the beginning it was scalpers and I think inside people that knew manufactures would lower the supply to increase prices bought all the gpu they could and then resell 10 times higher, funny it was such a long time ago, and people still say scalpers, wake up trolls. So I guess now we know it was always a shady scheme to increase gpu prices and manufactures of all gpus are together in this and sheeps think everything is good ehhe -- > "supply demand" hehe, sheeps will always be sheeps.

Nah it was aliens, not.

Yes facts are prevalent, sales are up Soo.

On point, good news, bring it up.

 

[Metroid]

Nah it was aliens, not.

Yes facts are prevalent, sales are up Soo.

On point, good news, bring it up.

yeah figures are facts and they know how to do that, same thing for petrol and gas bs, gas rose as much as 500% and people think everything is fine ehhe, they say demand rose hehehehehehehhehehehehehhe

 

[DeathtoGnomes]

If you think the chip shortages only affect the PC market, your shortsightedness needs adjusting. The fact is, and I posted before on this, automakers are closing down auto assembly lines because of this shortage. The chip shortage is causing job loss all over the place.

The problem isnt that manufacturers slowed down production, as some of you might think, its that the demand has outgrown the supply production capability. How many chip forges are being built or planning? Last I checked, and I am prolly wrong, 5 were going up, 3 in Arizona alone. What does that tell you?

 

[Metroid]

If you think the chip shortages only affect the PC market, your shortsightedness needs adjusting. The fact is, and I posted before on this, automakers are closing down auto assembly lines because of this shortage. The chip shortage is causing job loss all over the place.

The problem isnt that manufacturers slowed down production, as some of you might think, its that the demand has outgrown the supply production capability. How many chip forges are being built or planning? Last I checked, and I am prolly wrong, 5 were going up, 3 in Arizona alone. What does that tell you?

Second hand car market has become a thing, people are struggling to survive where prices are rising exponentially as manufactures are creating shady schemes in order to also rise prices, meaning, as people stayed in their houses because of the virus, demand for cars dropped a lot and then car manufactures blame shortage hehe , they want to rise price and people are not even paying what they are asking, no job, no money other than goverment handout and then they want to price based on inflation --> excessive print of money and the real need for products that matter is what people are outlining at moment in their lives, people are not silly, drastic measures if desperate times, luxury things are for the people who have more money than sense, actually that has always been the case. Truth is manufactures want to rise prices everywhere and blame everything on inflation and shortage and when they can manipulate both as they are now, consumers are losing it and democratic governments are hostages.

 

[R0H1T]

We just need to count the number of units sold.

Well it's not as simple as that is it? They have server, embedded, HPC sales which may well be heavily discounted depending on the customer ~ then OEM, retail channels & direct to consumer(?) so with units sold you won't really know too much.

 

[thesmokingman]

Well it's not as simple as that is it? They have server, embedded, HPC sales which may well be heavily discounted depending on the customer ~ then OEM, retail channels & direct to consumer(?) so with units sold you won't really know too much.

There have always been discounts, rebates, backend payouts etc. That doesn't change the sales numbers.

 

[big_glasses]

Second hand car market has become a thing, people are struggling to survive where prices are rising exponentially as manufactures are creating shady schemes in order to also rise prices, meaning, as people stayed in their houses because of the virus, demand for cars dropped a lot and then car manufactures blame shortage hehe , they want to rise price and people are not even paying what they are asking, no job, no money other than goverment handout and then they want to price based on inflation --> excessive print of money and the real need for products that matter is what people are outlining at moment in their lives, people are not silly, drastic measures if desperate times, luxury things are for the people who have more money than sense, actually that has always been the case. Truth is manufactures want to rise prices everywhere and blame everything on inflation and shortage and when they can manipulate both as they are now, consumers are losing it and democratic governments are hostages.

dude, it's serious chip shortage also in non-end customer businesses.
If you follow, or are in, businesses that deals with other business then you'd be aware. And it's not like these agreements can say "oops, we need to raise prices. Tehee" they are often set before equipment is delviered

 

[R0H1T]

There have always been discounts, rebates, backend payouts etc. That doesn't change the sales numbers.

Yes but unless AMD discloses the revenue mix per product stack (or SKU) how can we assume that say 7nm chips are being sold at an overall higher margin than say last year, or the upcoming 5nm chips? I don't read their financials but I'm assuming they don't actually disclose this to that level of detail.

 

[Chomiq]

By the time the chip "shortages" end, you might actually be able to purchase a RX 6000 series card for the actual MSRP because the RX 7000 series will be out and they'll be overpriced.

I think you meant RX 8000.

 

[thesmokingman]

Yes but unless AMD discloses the revenue mix per product stack (or SKU) how can we assume that say 7nm chips are being sold at an overall higher margin than say last year, or the upcoming 5nm chips? I don't read their financials but I'm assuming they don't actually disclose this to that level of detail.

It doesn't matter what the mix of % are, it's minutia that we'll never be privy to.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Well it's not as simple as that is it? They have server, embedded, HPC sales which may well be heavily discounted depending on the customer ~ then OEM, retail channels & direct to consumer(?) so with units sold you won't really know too much.

They're a public company in the USA. That means they are required to disclose certain information.

You know, like the following:

More chips are being sold right now. Period. Its pretty freaking obvious.

We can look at competitors to see if AMD has "stolen" the market. And...

Nope, Intel is also up. So if both AMD and Intel are up (despite Intel cutting prices on their chips), that means more chips are being sold.

------

EDIT: We can also see how many wafers are being consumed (aka: the "inputs" to the fab-labs)

Oh, look at that. Samsung is #1. In 2015, 2534000 wafers-per-month was Samsung's capacity, which was 15.5% of the world's capacity. That's a world-capacity of 16-million wafers/month. In Dec 2020, Samsung's capacity was still #1 with 3060000 wafers-per-month, but only 14.7% capacity. That's a world capacity of 20-million wafers/month.

So the world used 25% more wafers in 2020 than in 2015, and therefore made 25% more mm^2 worth of chips.

This is clearly a demand problem. Supplies / production are up 25% on a mm^2 basis, and that doesn't even count the advancement of 12nm to 7nm (!!!), which doubles the number of transistor per wafer.

 

[R0H1T]

More chips are being sold right now. Period. Its pretty freaking obvious.

Right & you think the best way to gauge margins is the number of chips sold ~ without even knowing the (individual) margins on the said products? AMD IIRC had an exclusivity agreements for 4900HS with ASUS last year for 6 months or so. Now do you think they'd have more margins with such (exclusive) deals than say supplying peanuts to every OEM out there?