Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[Metroid]

Right & that leverage or margin goes down each passing day as more (normal) users invest in crypto. Of course there's always squidgame & similar con schemes

Basically the more money is pumped in crypto the harder it is for one whale or even a bunch of whales to manipulate it, in that it's kinda similar to the stock markets! That is not to say they can't do fake news, or tweets, & crash it overnight but it's less of a problem if billionaires are already heavily invested in many of them.

I'd argue, if & only if you are looking to invest, just go with the top 10-20 biggest coins by market cap. They're "relatively" safe simply due to the sheer amount of money invested already. Again YMWV & do your due diligence.

Yes, that is what I always said, top 20 coins is pretty safe long term, the real issue is if the project dies, people lose lot of money, however I always say to people to play both sides, do not expect this to keep going up for longer(bullrun) and if bearrun do not expect this thing to keep going down for longer, everything has a limit and real world issues like inflation plays a large role here, people will take 10 to 20% their fiat and reinvest in something they think will help them in that regard.

I'm totally in favor of people who bought btc for 10 to 20k and sold for 30 or 40k, now too much greedy will make them blind to the truth, everything in life has a limit. Those people who bought for example at 20k and sold for 30k are already protected if inflation hits. If you stay too long gambling then you might lose a lot, like what i said earlier, many people who bought at 10k to this date still have not sold, they want to sell at 100k or higher and that is not protecting from inflation, that is pure gamble. Anyway, that will teach them, in 2018 I decided not to sell my last 20% on eth and in the end I lost a lot. I mean seeing the price of eth 1400 usd january 2018 and few months later at 80 usd was painful. That was a 95% crash.

 

[sepheronx]

Do you have any numbers for that, or source? IIRC India is still the biggest importer of gold, outside China with their industrial use, & it's still one of the most popular instrument for investment. Crypto is still nowhere close, unless we're talking black money?


That's not really enforceable ~ either ban all or ban none!

From gold to crypto, Indians seem to be changing preference

CoinSwitch Kuber is one of a handful of crypto exchanges that are in operation in India. Recently, in a Series B round, the startup amassed $25 million from a reputed VC named Tiger Global at a valuation of $500 million.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Now determine, is the gold also being bought by banks and government? Separate what average person is buying vs what the state is buying.

Black money may be big too. But there is no way, that I am aware of source at least, that calculates that.

 

[R0H1T]

The article seems to be saying two (contradictory?) things ~

In India, where households own more than 25,000 tonnes of gold, crypto investments grew from about $923 million in April 2020 to nearly $6.6 billion in May 2021.

Now determine, is the gold also being bought by banks and government?

Yes, I'll have to check some official resources to see if there are any hard numbers recently. No doubt crypto investments have blown up but the quantum or numbers in that article are dubious to say the least!

This is also in part because people here usually don't report these earnings & I have serious doubts if crypto exchanges are reporting them properly.

 

[sepheronx]

The article seems to be saying two (contradictory?) things ~

Yes, I'll have to check some official resources to see if there are any hard numbers recently. No doubt crypto investments have blown up but the quantum or numbers in that article are dubious to say the least!

This is also in part because people here usually don't report these earnings & I have serious doubts if crypto exchanges are reporting them properly.

Do they report also on gold in private sales? I mean, when I went to Apra to buy gold, I was able to buy whatever and it was in cash.

So I doubt they honestly report what they sold. That village is huge for gold sales, at least for Punjabi's.

 

[Vya Domus]

Now determine, is the gold also being bought by banks and government? Separate what average person is buying vs what the state is buying.

It doesn't even matter, the overwhelming majority of the volume of gold that is traded nowadays is in the form of futures, i.e gold that doesn't exist physically. Because of this it's price evolution is complete bollocks, mostly unrelated to a real supply and demand model and if people think crypto markets are manipulated they really should look into how gold is traded.

At this point BTC feels more real and constrained than gold.

 

[sepheronx]

It doesn't even matter, the overwhelming majority of the volume of gold that is traded nowadays is in the form of futures, i.e gold that doesn't exist physically. Because of this it's price evolution is complete bollocks, mostly unrelated to a real supply and demand model and if people think crypto markets are manipulated they really should look into how gold is traded.

At this point BTC feels more real and constrained than gold.

Well, I am more specific to the gold market in India. I am not sure about the government and banks comment but I do know physical gold is sold quite a bit in India with villages/towns entire economy revolves around the trade of it. It is where I buy all my physical gold for my wife.

 

[trog100]

early friday morning here in the UK.. after a nice little rise last night bitcoin and eth have taken a rapid dive.. bitcoin at 55K and eth 4.1 K..

i am pretty sure its connected to stock market falls based on a new covid variation scare.. no other reason..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

early friday morning here in the UK.. after a nice little rise last night bitcoin and eth have taken a rapid dive.. bitcoin at 55K and eth 4.1 K..

i am pretty sure its connected to stock market falls based on a new covid variation scare.. no other reason..

trog

What's interesting is that BTC and ETH seem to be going in directions independently of each other.

 

[Outback Bronze]

Hey @RandallFlagg you there mate?

Would like to know your thoughts on where BTC goes next as you seem like the resident Guru here for market predictions : ) I'm finding it at interesting crossroads.

Thanks pal.

​

 

[trog100]

monday and the stock market are back in the green.. bitcoin now back at 57K and eth up near 4.4 k..

eth on average seems to show slightly higher gains than bitcoin.. but they still seems closely linked..

i expect some big gains before the end of the year but i could be wrong i expected them during november but they didnt happen..

trog

 

[RandallFlagg]

Hey @RandallFlagg you there mate?

Would like to know your thoughts on where BTC goes next as you seem like the resident Guru here for market predictions : ) I'm finding it at interesting crossroads.

Thanks pal.

​

From a momentum standpoint, the weekly chart shows it near a cross, but not yet there. You can see the two previous reactions to the cross below. This basically means nothing but caution, these lines could level out with price going up. The price trend lines are up and not broken on daily and weekly.

But I think you are right, it's at a critical point as evidenced by the two EMA lines nearing a cross below. This move up is not as strong as the one that ended in the spring (bottom of the graph line is RSI which measures # of buys vs sells, aka strength). That is a form of divergence or loss of momentum. However at this scale, that can go on for a couple of years. If those EMA's on the MACD cross and the price trend is broken, it will imply a trend reversal with lower prices.

 

[Outback Bronze]

the weekly chart shows it near a cross

Legend matey. Love your work

 

[Metroid]

What's interesting is that BTC and ETH seem to be going in directions independently of each other.

Last year that was true, bitcoin got to 40k first and eth was at that time 900 usd, btc grew a lot then stopped and then eth grew a lot and both seems all right at moment, very likely to what happened in 2017 to 2018. After this bullrun ends, eth will crash so hard, back to 0.02 to btc, at moment eth must be at 0.07 to btc.

 

[trog100]

tuesday night.. bitcoin has been as high as 58K but has dropped back to 57K.. eth seems to be breaking away from bitcoin and is now at 4.6K..

not quite the normal pattern..

trog

 

[Metroid]

tuesday night.. bitcoin has been as high as 58K but has dropped back to 57K.. eth seems to be breaking away from bitcoin and is now at 4.6K..

not quite the normal pattern..

trog

Well I'm still holding 20% of eth I bought in 2018, waiting for 7.9k, I hope manipulators will take it to there. My initial assessment on last year was that eth would rise from 0.16 to 0.1 to btc and eth still have not got there, in 2017 it got as high as 0.158 btc, so if btc gets to 79k, eth would be around 7.9k and that is what i think it will happen or maybe eth would not get to 0.1, however btc would get to 89k top close to 100k. The last bulltrap, then hehell. The whole eth ecosystem is a mafia itself, just look usdt, created from thin air and is used to pump coins, trillions of usdt can be created in seconds and pump btc to 1 million hehe, need to be very careful here, the mafia are smart, they sure will not take btc to 1 million this time, will look too scammy but they can and like I said before is easy, just create a lot of usdt, with usdc and other stable coins that are audited they cant do that, usdt is eth mafia's coin, I believe it was created for that sole reason, manipulate the market.

 

[trog100]

wednesday morning.. bitcoin is pretty flat at 57K.. eth definitely on the rise at 4.7K near its all time highs..

the stock markets are back in the green..

trog

 

[trog100]

thursday.. i was bit premature with my stock market comment yesterday.. US markets ended up in the red.. the crypto markets dipped accordingly.. whoops.. he he

trog

ps this new variant thing could be the black swan event that triggers a bigger stock market crash.. its a strong possibility..

 

[Dromze]

thursday.. i was bit premature with my stock market comment yesterday.. US markets ended up in the red.. the crypto markets dipped accordingly.. whoops.. he he

trog

ps this new variant thing could be the black swan event that triggers a bigger stock market crash.. its a strong possibility..

Such volatility is normal for the cryptocurrency market.

 

[trog100]

Such volatility is normal for the cryptocurrency market.

friday.. the volatility is mostly predicable.. but the stocks markets are back in the green.. so what should have happened yesterday will happen today..

i expect a move higher.. a day late but the same result.. he he..

trog

ps.. whoops premature again.. stocks have puked and crypto pukes with them.. he he..

 

[Outback Bronze]

it will imply a trend reversal with lower prices.

Yep that's what just happened

 

[RandallFlagg]

Yep that's what just happened

Yep, price trend broke and weekly EMA crossed. And that happened before the really big drop after hours.

 

[trog100]

saturday morning.. whoops.. bitcoin at 47K and eth at 3.9K.. more of a crash than trend reversal i think but who knows..

where to now i wonder.. ??

what happens to the stock markets on monday will be interesting..

trog

 

[trog100]

wednesday morning.. bitcoin up to between 50 and 51K and going sideways.. it could be establishing a new bottom..

eth between 4.3 and 4.4K.. as a general rule eth seems to be slowly moving higher relative to bitcoin but basically going sideways..

stock markets are back in the green.. the crypto markets seem to be linked to the general markets.. if the general markets go down they will takes crypto with them.. if not i think bitcoin and eth will start heading back up..

trog

ps.. premature again.. the stock markets have dipped into the red and bitcoin and eth have dipped with them.. he he

 

[trog100]

tuesday morning and bitcoin is down at 47K with eth at 3.8K... where it goes from here nobody knows..

there is lot of fear in the general markets.. fear drives prices down..

trog

 

[sepheronx]

tuesday morning and bitcoin is down at 47K with eth at 3.8K... where it goes from here nobody knows..

there is lot of fear in the general markets.. fear drives prices down..

trog