Jon Peddie Research: Q1 of 2022 Saw a Decline in GPU Shipments Quarter-to-Quarter

[AleksandarK]

Jon Peddie Research reports that the global PC-based graphics processor units (GPU) market reached 96 million units in Q1'22 and PC GPUs shipments decreased 6.2% due to disturbances in China, Ukraine, and the pullback from the lockdown elsewhere. However, the fundamentals of the GPU and PC market are solid over the long term, JPR predicts GPUs will have a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% during 2022-2026 and reach an installed base of 3.3 million units at the end of the forecast period. Over the next five years, the penetration of discrete GPUs (dGPU) in the PC market will grow to reach a level of 46%.

AMD's overall market share percentage from last quarter increased 0.7%, Intel's market share decreased by -2.4%, and Nvidia's market share increased 1.69%, as indicated in the following chart.



Overall, GPU unit shipments decreased by -6.2% from last quarter, AMD shipments decreased by -1.5%, Intel's shipments decreased by -8.7%, and Nvidia's shipments increased 3.2%.

Quick highlights

• The GPU's overall attach rate (which includes integrated and discrete GPUs, desktops, notebooks, and workstations) to PCs for the quarter was 129%, up 5.0% from last quarter.
• The overall PC CPU market decreased by -10.8% quarter-to-quarter and decreased -26.2% year-to-year.
• Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) increased by 1.4% from the last quarter.
• This quarter saw a 16.5% drop in tablet shipments from last quarter.

The first quarter is typically flat to down compared to the previous quarter. This quarter was down -6.2% from last quarter, which is above the 10-year average of -10.2%. GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market because a GPU goes into a system before the suppliers ship the PC. Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding up for the next quarter, an average of 1.99%. Last quarter they guided -0.4%, which was too high.

The total (desktop and notebook) market share for the two dGPU suppliers is shown in the following table.

The swirl of influences at play includes macro disruptions in Europe and North America as COVID comes and goes along with shifting lockdown strategies. The return to work from COVID and return to offices is also a bit of a rolling disruption, and every country negotiates a shift that seems to be pleasing nobody. China has taken its own path to dealing with COVID, which continues to affect the availability of goods and components. And now, there is war. Russia's attack on Ukraine is multiplying the effects of COVID, especially inflation and food insecurity.

Jon Peddie, president of JPR, noted, "Consumers are cautious despite new product introductions from AMD, Intel, and Nvidia (AIN) in the second half. Therefore, our forecast for the year is a modest 2% to 3% for GPUs.

"US real GDP growth will rise 2.3% (year-over-year), according to the Conference Board economic forecast for the US economy, and we expect growth of 2.1% (year-over-year) in 2023."

JPR also publishes a series of reports on the graphics add-in board market and PC gaming hardware market, which covers the total market, including systems and accessories, and looks at 31 countries.

View at TechPowerUp Main Site

 

[ARF]

As long as you promise something for 650$ but deliver it for 875 EUR, things will be like this - the sales on the decline:
Unbearable price tags:

AMD Radeon RX 6800 XT Specs | TechPowerUp GPU Database

What exactly do you expect? Do these people have brains or not?
AMD Radeon RX 6800 XT Grafikkarte Preisvergleich | Günstig bei idealo kaufen

 

[Frick]

As long as you promise something for 650$ but deliver it for 875 EUR, things will be like this - the sales on the decline:
Unbearable price tags:

View attachment 249505
AMD Radeon RX 6800 XT Specs | TechPowerUp GPU Database

View attachment 249504

What exactly do you expect? Do these people have brains or not?
AMD Radeon RX 6800 XT Grafikkarte Preisvergleich | Günstig bei idealo kaufen

It hasn't stopped the buyers so far.

 

[ARF]

It hasn't stopped the buyers so far.

To a complete stop, it won't succeed, but also there is no growth, that is much needed.

 

[ZetZet]

It hasn't stopped the buyers so far.

That is mostly because coiners care about different numbers compared to gamers. Also scalping.

 

[ModEl4]

So Intel moves from the get-go1/4 of AMD's discreet GPUs shipment (desktop+mobile, OEMs+DIY) with just one chip (128EU) (it will have at least another one (512EU) and there are reports that a third one (256EU) is coming also at a later date but this isn't confirmed) and only with China OEMs and without desktop versions at all?

 

[ARF]

So Intel moves from the get-go1/4 of AMD's discreet GPUs shipment (desktop+mobile, OEMs+DIY) with just one chip (128EU) (it will have at least another one (512EU) and there are reports that a third one (256EU) is coming also at a later date but this isn't confirmed) and only with China OEMs and without desktop versions at all?

How so? I think it included all Intel graphics including the integrated in CPUs.

Intel's market share decreased by -2.4%
Intel's shipments decreased by -8.7%

 

[ModEl4]

How so? I think it included all Intel graphics including the integrated in CPUs.

Intel's market share decreased by -2.4%
Intel's shipments decreased by -8.7%

View attachment 249511

I said discreet, not integrated+discreet

 

[mechtech]

Shipments from AIBs to distributors, etailers and retailers??

or

shipments/sales from retailers and etailers to end consumers??

 

[R0H1T]

I said discreet, not integrated+discreet

That looks BS to me, who did they sell it to all the miners still going after ETH using free electricity

 

[Metroid]

This is true, the reason prices are crashing is because of second hand market, crypto miners are selling their gpus because there is no profit anymore and sheeps are buying the used trash hehe

 

[ModEl4]

That looks BS to me, who did they sell it to all the miners still going after ETH using free electricity

I really don't know, it's quite surprising honestly, but on the other hand, if you find even a single AMD/Intel/Nvidia press release disputing JPR findings it would be a start.

 

[progste]

Most of this graph is probably notebooks anyway...

 

[ModEl4]

Most of this graph is probably notebooks anyway...

True, but nowhere near the mobile/desktop PC unit sales difference, because the attach-rate for AIBs for the Desktop market is a lot higher than mobile's attach-rate, especially in the post Covid era, just check the desktop attach-rate:

 

[eidairaman1]

No confidence in arc?

 

[R-T-B]

That looks BS to me, who did they sell it to all the miners still going after ETH using free electricity

Eth diff bomb is ensuring it's not profitable for anyone but the most desperate. It's almost to the merge, which means bye bye gpu mining.

This is true, the reason prices are crashing is because of second hand market, crypto miners are selling their gpus because there is no profit anymore and sheeps are buying the used trash hehe

That "used trash" might be handy for me at the right price point.

Guess I'm a sheep-frog.

 

[watzupken]

This problem should not be surprising. Manufacturers have been aggressively increasing GPU prices, and we all know that at some point, people will lose interest because they don’t want to pay that much. They can sustained selling at high price because miners are desperate to get their hands on any GPU so that they can increase their mining operations. Now that mining demand has tapered off, there will be nobody willing to overpay for GPUs. Given that we are very close to the end of the current GPU cycle, under normal circumstances, we should be seeing cards below MSRP, not at or close to MSRP. That just means the price of GPUs still need to go down further in order to entice people to buy now, instead of waiting for the next gen GPUs.

 

[stimpy88]

They are all in it together. Availability goes up, production goes down to protect profits. It's all "for the gamers".

 

[ARF]

This problem should not be surprising. Manufacturers have been aggressively increasing GPU prices, and we all know that at some point, people will lose interest because they don’t want to pay that much. They can sustained selling at high price because miners are desperate to get their hands on any GPU so that they can increase their mining operations. Now that mining demand has tapered off, there will be nobody willing to overpay for GPUs. Given that we are very close to the end of the current GPU cycle, under normal circumstances, we should be seeing cards below MSRP, not at or close to MSRP. That just means the price of GPUs still need to go down further in order to entice people to buy now, instead of waiting for the next gen GPUs.

The RX 6800 XT 16 GB for 500 euro will be a fair deal.
I am considering the new upcoming Radeon RX 7000 series but if there is a reasonable discount on the RX 6800 XT 16 GB, I would not hesitate.

 

[ZetZet]

Eth diff bomb is ensuring it's not profitable for anyone but the most desperate. It's almost to the merge, which means bye bye gpu mining.

I doubt that. They will just invent another coin and mine that instead.

 

[KLiKzg]

This will only drive the prices of GPUs more up, so we are a long way before stabilization of prices in GPU sector.

 

[ARF]

This will only drive the prices of GPUs more up, so we are a long way before stabilization of prices in GPU sector.

I prefer that we may have more luck than this.

 

[Metroid]

That "used trash" might be handy for me at the right price point.

Guess I'm a sheep-frog.

hehe, the "used trash" was a figure of speech aka I was joking, most miners do take care of their gpus by underclocking them by best possible power efficiency x hashrate.

 

[watzupken]

The RX 6800 XT 16 GB for 500 euro will be a fair deal.
I am considering the new upcoming Radeon RX 7000 series but if there is a reasonable discount on the RX 6800 XT 16 GB, I would not hesitate.

Historically, you don’t hear older GPUs getting produced after they get replaced. I suspect both AMD and Nvidia will stop production of their high end GPUs since they are likely to first release their high GPUs with next gen. Mid and lower end GPUs may happen quite a number of months later, which makes sense for the likes of RX 6700 series and RTX 3070 series and lower to co-exist with the next GPUs until their replacement gets announced. So I don’t think you will see the price crash, especially when AMD prefer to try and revitalise sale by giving free games, instead of lowering price. There is a floor as to how much they can reduce without taking a significant losses. That’s my opinion, though I may be wrong.

This is true, the reason prices are crashing is because of second hand market, crypto miners are selling their gpus because there is no profit anymore and sheeps are buying the used trash hehe

I feel the impact of second hand market is not as bad as the previous mining crash. This is all “thanks” to Nvidia segregating their GPUs into mining vs gaming cards. To me, the main reasons why prices are crashing this time is likely because,
1. GPU prices were too high to begin with when you consider how much premium they are charging over MSRP. At the peak, it was easily more than 2x over MSRP
2. Mining demand is weak or non-existent now. Miners will be wiling to pay more for GPUs since they are using it to make money. Moreover, gamers generally only need 1 GPU per system, versus miners that own multiple GPUs, thus, gaming demand can never catch up with/ replace mining demand
3. As mining demand crashed hard this year, and people are already anticipating next gen GPUs, so even gaming demand is weak
4. High supply - Due to Nvidia and AMD pushing very hard to increase supply, I think the supply is actually high, but they all got sold from the back door to miners in the past. So again with miners mostly gone, and the factories still churning out high volume of GPUs, we may be in a situation of over supply now.

 

[Metroid]

I feel the impact of second hand market is not as bad as the previous mining crash. This is all “thanks” to Nvidia segregating their GPUs into mining vs gaming cards. To me, the main reason why prices are crashing this time is likely because,
1. GPU prices were too high to begin with when you consider how much premium they are charging over MSRP. At the peak, it was easily more than 2x over MSRP
2. Mining demand is weak or non-existent now. Miners will be wiling to pay more for GPUs since they are using it to make money. Moreover, gamers generally only need 1 GPU per system, versus miners that own multiple GPUs, thus, gaming demand can never catch up with/ replace mining demand
3. As mining demand crashed hard this year, and people are already anticipating next gen GPUs, so even gaming deMAMD is weak

This will crash further and further, this is just the beginning, this is a pre bear market, will have bulltraps yet, so watchout, other than that, I would not buy anything right now, no way I'm buying any gpu right now. I will gamble on 1 x 4090 when it is launched in 3 months or so, my guess, it will be in september and I hope it will not cost more than 1499 usd, same price as 3090 in 2020. By the way, not sure if is coincidence but the 3090 was released on september 24, 2020 at $1499 as per the wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GeForce_30_series