Intel Expects to Lose More Market Share, to Reconsider Exiting Other Businesses

[AleksandarK]

During Evercore ISI TMT conference, Intel announced that the company would continue to lose market share, with a possible bounce back in the coming years. According to the latest report, Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger announced that he expects the company to continue to lose its market share to AMD as the competition has "too much momentum" going for it. AMD's Ryzen and EPYC processors continue to deliver power and efficiency performance figures, which drives customers towards the company. On the other hand, Intel expects a competing product, especially in the data center business with Sapphire Rapids Xeon processors, set to arrive in 2023. Pat Gelsinger noted, "Competition just has too much momentum, and we haven't executed well enough. So we expect that bottoming. The business will be growing, but we do expect that there continues to be some share losses. We're not keeping up with the overall TAM growth until we get later into '25 and '26 when we start regaining share, material share gains."

The only down years that are supposed to show a toll of solid competition are 2022 and 2023. As far as creating a bounceback, Intel targets 2025 and 2026. "Now, obviously, in 2024, we think we're competitive. 2025, we think we're back to unquestioned leadership with our transistors and process technology," noted CEO Gelsinger. Additionally, he had a say about the emerging Arm CPUs competing for the same server market share as Intel and AMD do so, stating that "Well, when we deliver the Forest product line, we deliver power performance leadership versus all Arm alternatives, as well. So now you go to a cloud service provider, and you say, 'Well, why would I go through that butt ugly, heavy software lift to an ARM architecture versus continuing on the x86 family?"



Finally, Pat Gelsinger has emphasized that the company will continue to exit more businesses where it doesn't thrive. Just like it did with Optane memory, we could see Intel pulling out of other markets that don't necessarily align with the leadership's vision. Given that the CEO appointed a new leadership group and performed major company structure reforms, it is interesting to see what comes out of this. Just a few days ago, we saw the appointment of Shlomit Weiss as senior vice president and Co-GM of the Design Engineering Group.

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[Vayra86]

Bwahahaha this is the same story Intel had on 10nm.

Soon (TM)

 

[64K]

I cry a little inside when I think about Intel's plight.

/s

 

[JAGGED]

The bigger you are the harder the fall

 

[andreiga76]

Pat said last year that Intel is back as leader, AMD had a good run but it is over, a year later AMD has too much momentum to be reached?
I'm guessing the new Intel CPUs won't beat Ryzen 7000 series.

 

[oxrufiioxo]

It's kinda shocking a company as successful as intel has been over the last decade seems to be on the ropes. I've owned 6 intel based platforms over that time span and hope Meteorlake is good enough for me to want to build one based on it... Hopefully Intel can consistently hit it's targets when it comes to more advanced process nodes and we don't get a repeat of 14nm.....

 

[AM4isGOD]

AMD will never overtake Intel though.

The more successful AMD get, the more their practises will mirror Intel's, just watch.

 

[Dirt Chip]

Pat said last year that Intel is back as leader, AMD had a good run but it is over, a year later AMD has too much momentum to be reached?
I'm guessing the new Intel CPUs won't beat Ryzen 7000 series.

It all referring to the *server* market where AMD have distinct advantage over intel, not the consumer marker.

AMD will never overtake Intel though.

The more successful AMD get, the more their practises will mirror Intel's, just watch.

They have never been different, just in different places so each company had different strategy. But both of those strategy's comming from the same state of mind- make as much money as you can at the long rang, please your shareholders and PR your consumers.

Thay have never been different and never and will no be your friend.

 

[oxrufiioxo]

AMD will never overtake Intel though.

The more successful AMD get, the more their practises will mirror Intel's, just watch.

So your argument is they will not overtake intel because in the process they will become intel? So if they stay AMD they will overtake them or they will not overtake them either way


I fail to see why this even matters if amd had 51% of the market and intel had 49% does it really matter or vise versa.... Only blind fanboys care about that neither of these companies give a damn about us just our $$$ that hasn't changed and never will all companies try to make every $ they can.

 

[Crackong]

Competition just has too much momentum ?

Why not blaming your foot for hitting the brakes?

 

[beedoo]

Only blind fanboys care about that neither of these companies give a damn about us just our $$$ that hasn't changed and never will all companies try to make every $ they can.

If only more people realized that nothing in life is about them; they absolutely don't matter outside of family and a handful of friends. Everything is about getting you to hand over your hard earned money somewhere.

If more people really understood this, perhaps they wouldn't spend fewer years arguing for stupid social, economic and environmental changes - and just get on making the most of the short number of years they have on this planet.

 

[PapaTaipei]

Doesn't matter since the market is a monopoly with the same shareholders behind.

 

[Denver]

This is like a punch in the(fanboys') stomach right now. The CEO himself admitting that he will lose market... Wow

 

[nguyen]

Intel has been pretty boring for years, hopefully this give them the wake up slap

 

[oxrufiioxo]

If only more people realized that nothing in life is about them; they absolutely don't matter outside of family and a handful of friends. Everything is about getting you to hand over your hard earned money somewhere.

If more people really understood this, perhaps they wouldn't spend fewer years arguing for stupid social, economic and environmental changes - and just get on making the most of the short number of years they have on this planet.

Even these are more fulfilling than treating your silicon maker of choice like your favorite sports team It's dumb and needs to die.

We all love tech here it's why we are even part of this forum in the first place we should want competition and good products for whatever our budgets are who makes them doesn't matter. This is going to be an awesome year (maybe not the pricing) we are getting 4 major hardware launches I can't wait for TPU and my other sites of choice to get them in and benchmark them will I loose sleep if the 13900k is 5-10% faster than the 7950X nope or vice versa... Will I call someone dumb for buying a 7950X even if its slightly slower but uses less power nope.... I'm sure whoever is upgrading this year regardless of silicon maker will get some awesome products....

Same with AMD fanboys rooting for intel's demise it's stupid as well we need them to come out with good products on time to keep amd honest if Raptor Lake is really good and sells well I'm pretty sure we will see a 7600 non X and price drops on 7700X. Benefits everyone.

 

[Imouto]

It's kinda shocking a company as successful as intel has been over the last decade seems to be on the ropes. I've owned 6 intel based platforms over that time span and hope Meteorlake is good enough for me to want to build one based on it... Hopefully Intel can consistently hit it's targets when it comes to more advanced process nodes and we don't get a repeat of 14nm.....

Not really. You could see the trend when Otellini resigned and left the train running at full steam towards a cliff. Back in the day their desperate efforts trying to get into the mobile market and failing miserably were a good indication that Intel is a company that can't steer at all. Long story short Intel couldn't put their products in the market even giving them away.

Now the same is happening. Competition from AMD is so alien to them that they can't answer properly. Intel's management is so out of touch they seem to think that everything will be solved on its own because "hey, we are Intel".

 

[oxrufiioxo]

Not really. You could see the trend when Otellini resigned and left the train running at full steam towards a cliff. Back in the day their desperate efforts trying to get into the mobile market and failing miserably were a good indication that Intel is a company that can't steer at all. Long story short Intel couldn't put their products in the market even giving them away.

Now the same is happening. Competition from AMD is so alien to them that they can't answer properly. Intel's management is so out of touch they seem to think that everything will be solved on its own because "hey, we are Intel".

They've definitely made a lot of mistakes but I think what's hurt them the most is being stuck on 14nm for 5 generations and AMD killing intel hedt where they could charge 1000 usd for a 6 core back in 2010 and nearly 2000 usd for a 10 core in 2016.... If you told anyone in 2016 me included that we would be getting 16 cores for less than 700 usd on a mainstream platform I would have called you crazy.

 

[Deleted member 185088]

They waste a lot of money on rubbish, the latest is their obsession with GPUs, instead of focusing on optane (where they are ahead of everyone) available and affordable.

 

[Icon Charlie]

Competition just has too much momentum ?

Why not blaming your foot for hitting the brakes?

Yea. I agree with this 100%. Intel's Decline started when the former CEO Brian Krzanich had to resign because He could not keep his pants.

Intel CEO resigns after probe of relationship with employee

Intel Corp <INTC.O> Chief Executive Brian Krzanich resigned on Thursday after an investigation found he had a consensual relationship with an employee in breach of company policy.

www.reuters.com

Ever since then upper management has been shooting blanks and making excuses. They all believe that Intel is Too big to fail, well in 4 short years we have seen that is not the case.

NOTE: It is unfortunate that I have/had to deal with those types of Narcissistic individuals that reside in Silicon Valley and Silicon Sacramento.
They are overall concerned about their golden parachutes and stock options than really getting down to the problem and fixing it.

With that I am curious with the GPU division and am with caution, looking forward for them competing in the video market. I might even pick one up if they are priced right as back in the day I have my Cyrix based computer hopefully in storage.

 

[Frank_100]

It seems that intel's only way out is to develop superior lithography techniques.

As long as TSMC is getting the machines first, Intel will be playing catch up.

 

[catulitechup]

what a inept and continue gain indecent salary

Intel shareholders reject executive pay

The vote won't immediately affect the compensation of Intel's executives.

www.cnbc.com

Gelsinger took over as CEO of Intel in Feb. 2021, and received a compensation package worth $178.59 million later that year, according to a financial filing. The compensation included over $1 million in salary, a $1.75 million bonus, over $140 million in stock awards, and nearly $30 million in option awards.

 

[Frank_100]

They waste a lot of money on rubbish, the latest is their obsession with GPUs, instead of focusing on optane (where they are ahead of everyone) available and affordable.

I hope optane is opened like IBM power.

 

[Nanochip]

Intel’s major problem is execution. Sapphire rapids may be an interesting product from an engineering standpoint, but it is extremely late. It’s launch is anything but rapid.

Late delivery erodes customer trust. And even if intel technically does deliver a superior product, customers who switched to Epyc won’t instantaneously switch back. Gelsinger shouldn’t be so quick to assume this. For intel to start to gain market share again, it must deliver superior products on time and in volume. Genoa is looking mighty massive… when will intel catch up ?

 

[RogueSix]

It seems that intel's only way out is to develop superior lithography techniques.

As long as TSMC is getting the machines first, Intel will be playing catch up.

Exactly and I think it is pretty promising that Gelsinger fully realizes this. The unedited transcript from the Gelsinger conversation is very much worth a read. Gelsinger is very open and honest about Intel's problems and he knows exactly what they need to do to get back on track. The section on their Palladius methodology is interesting, too. This will only bear (full) fruits in 2025+.
It is almost a bit shocking just how honest and open Gelsinger is here because he is basically saying that we can write off Intel until 2025. He is almost issuing an advance apology for a series of garbage products until then .

I would say, even if you are a die hard AMD fan and if you are from a western country, you should wish Intel luck. We will need strong western semiconductor companies with fabs in the long run for geostrategic reasons. It is not very smart to wish for Intel to die. Not just to keep AMD honest. That's the least concern once Taiwan is ripe for the picking.

I would also disagree with a previous poster who said that their GPU efforts are "rubbish". No. It actually makes sense because computing has long evolved beyond the pure CPU space. AMD and nVidia make a lot of money with GPUs outside of gaming. The datacenter revenue of nVidia last quarter surpassed gaming and was up +61% so massive growth in that sector. And mirroring Intel's GPU efforts, nVidia is working on a CPU (nVidia Grace) to complete their eco system.
Intel should have stuck with Larrabee and fixed it. They would be in a much better position in the datacenter space right now with a strong CPU + GPU computing package. Now they have to play catch-up game again but it is certainly not "rubbish". They need a strong GPU segment in order to compete in the long run (5+ years).

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

AMD will never overtake Intel though.

The more successful AMD get, the more their practises will mirror Intel's, just watch.

Well in market Cap they already beat Intel soo there's that.
And still no signs of exclusivity deals between AMD and dell etc so wrong IMHO.

Price wise, yeah when they're the best the price goes up, if Intel competes as with AL then the price's get competitive, totally like any other duopoly market.