What we see in the future is, I hope, me being completely, hilariously, wrong.
But another thing I see lately, is people buying based on performance today and features promoted today. And AMD is losing in both those categories. AMD is promoting a platform created for longevity, CPUs with equal performance cores, CPUs with high efficiency, and who is winning? Intel, because it is offering more cores today, it is winning benchmarks today, it is offering a cheaper platform today. People don't care if most of those Intel cores are Efficiency cores. They don't care if Ryzen 9 7950X will butcher Intel i9 13900K in applications or games that will need more than 8 P cores in 5 years. They don't care if in that period of 5 years the AM5 owner will be just swapping CPUs and not replacing the whole platform. And they don't care about efficiency.
Lately people care only for TODAY. And in GPUs today is RT. In 5 years we might have something else, or RT be dead, or programmers start using RT in a more efficient way that it is not killing performance. But today it does sell cards. Overpriced worst than the competition's equivalent, better performing in raster cards. Nvidia knows that, that's why it is throwing fake frames in a, still, beta testing form.
Above image from
here.
People only look at bars, they only understand bars. And when in reviews they reach the page where it compares models at RT performance, they will have the best excuse to go with the much more expensive Nvidia option. I mean there is already integrated in their brains that AMD sucks in drivers, right? That RT performance will be another example that Nvidia is superior. They will totally disregard all those raster performance charts, because there even the slower Nvidia card will be good enough. They will be focusing on RT charts, because there, the AMD card will just be bad. So they will be choosing the "good enough in everything", over the "better at most, but bad at that new feature that we heard that transforms our games in reality".
Irronicaly, the higher price of the Nvidia model will be one more proof that RT is important and matters. Because "more expensive is better". Right? I believe this is one more true fact about how the average consumer thinks. More expensive equals better, especially when the brand is much stronger.