AMD Still Believes in Moore's Law, Unlike NVIDIA

[medi01]

Moore just happened to notice that semiconductor industry was progressing at a quite stable, concrete, pace.


That pace had slown down, so in its original form it was dead for years.

If one reads "it's not dead yet" as "we are still seeing progress at a slower, but still steady pace", then, well, it's not dead.

 

[Jism]

Moore's Law is biggest joke in a whole IT. I never liked this fake "law" which isn't law at all. 100% dependent on how tech companies are doing.

So tell me whats beyond 1nm then?

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

So tell me whats beyond 1nm then?

Angstrom level part's obviously.

 

[cyneater]

Pretty sure Nvidias version of moores law is we can charge twice as much for this generation and then double the price every 12 months

 

[1d10t]

You can always go horizontal ( i.e modular ) or vertical ( i.e stacking ), performance might regressed, but at least there's a way of jumping brick walls.

 

[Ravenlord]

So tell me whats beyond 1nm then?

It has nothing to do with this fake law. Still 100% dependent on how tech companies are doing - ask them.

 

[Assimilator]

It has nothing to do with this fake law. Still 100% dependent on how tech companies are doing - ask them.

Keep on ignoring the laws of physics.

 

[Ravenlord]

Keep on ignoring the laws of physics.

What does Moor's law have to do with the laws of physics? Please enlight me.

 

[Assimilator]

What does Moor's law have to do with the laws of physics? Please enlight me.

Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years.

Once we hit the wall of how precisely we can build tools to physically etch silicon, we are no longer able to increase transistor density. And we are currently almost at that wall.

Even if by some miracle we are able to get down to etching at angstrom-level (1Å = 0.1nm), silicon atoms are 2Å wide and it is quite literally impossible to etch anything smaller than an atom.

 

[Ravenlord]

Once we hit the wall of how precisely we can build tools to physically etch silicon, we are no longer able to increase transistor density. And we are currently almost at that wall.

Even if by some miracle we are able to get down to etching at angstrom-level (1Å = 0.1nm), silicon atoms are 2Å wide and it is quite literally impossible to etch anything smaller than an atom.

This answer has nothing about question which was asked. You are talking about known facts and it's not related to question.

 

[AnotherReader]

Once we hit the wall of how precisely we can build tools to physically etch silicon, we are no longer able to increase transistor density. And we are currently almost at that wall.

Even if by some miracle we are able to get down to etching at angstrom-level (1Å = 0.1nm), silicon atoms are 2Å wide and it is quite literally impossible to etch anything smaller than an atom.

A process with features that small would be dominated by quantum effects, and won't yield a working classic ASIC as we know it. So you're right; the wall will come before that, but we still have some time to go. As the following table from RealWorldTech shows, process names are far from the feature sizes that they used to correspond to.

Table 1 – Intel process node comparison

 

[ARF]

we still have some time to go

I think they are beyond already since the price increases began to follow the performance uplift which is unsustainable and will lead to widespread semiconductors companies bankruptcies.

 

[Bwaze]

Nah, it's completely normal, world has tons of millionaires that are gamers, not to mention people that earn money with productivity on their gaming cards...

2020, RTX 3080 - $700
2022, RTX 4080 - $1200 <- WE ARE HERE
2024, RTX 5080 - $2040
2026, RTX 6080 - $3468
2028, RTX 7080 - $5896
2030, RTX 8080 - $10022
2032, RTX 9080 - $17038
2034, GTX 1080 - $28965

 

[R-T-B]

Nah, it's completely normal, world has tons of millionaires that are gamers, not to mention people that earn money with productivity on their gaming cards...

2020, RTX 3080 - $700
2022, RTX 4080 - $1200 <- WE ARE HERE
2024, RTX 5080 - $2040
2026, RTX 6080 - $3468
2028, RTX 7080 - $5896
2030, RTX 8080 - $10022
2032, RTX 9080 - $17038
2034, GTX 1080 - $28965

Sir this is not Quadroville.

 

[AnotherReader]

I think they are beyond already since the price increases began to follow the performance uplift which is unsustainable and will lead to widespread semiconductors companies bankruptcies.

Companies will stay on older nodes or only migrate to new nodes when they are mature. You can see this in AMD's transition to N5: they followed Apple by 2 years whereas for previous nodes, they were among the first customers.

 

[ARF]

Define mature. We don't need high yields but cheap, affordable processes. We need back-to-normal pricing:

599 for top
499 for cut-down
399 for mid-high-end
249 for mid-range
119 for low-end and entry

You don't get these prices with 20,000$ N4 or N5 wafers on super mature, high-yield process.

 

[Kyan]

Makes me wonder what will be used in the future. GaN?

New Semiconductor Material that Reduces Build-up of Heat on Processors

Researchers have successfully revealed the effectiveness of the new semiconductor material by incorporating it into high-powered devices.

www.electronicsforu.com

I think have read about that material some month ago but there is other candidate too. It's like car actually. We are going to the limit of what we were used to use for making chip/power car and now we have to find alternative ressources or a new way on how to continue with the old material.

 

[N3utro]

All big CEOs of techs companies are singing together the "it will cost more" song thinking it will ready us to pay more for the same performance/price ratio. But what will really happen is when people dont buy it because it's not worth it, they'll lower their prices.