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Kioxia Optimistic About Introducing 1000-Layer 3D NAND by 2027

Nomad76

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Kioxia presented a technology roadmap at the IWM 2024 conference in Seoul, projecting the development of 1,000-layer 3D NAND by 2027. This ambitious goal is based on extrapolating past trends, which saw NAND layers increase from 24 in 2014 to 238 in 2022. Kioxia's plan involves not only increasing layer count but also shrinking cell size and increasing bit levels from TLC (3 bits per cell) to QLC (4 bits per cell), and possibly even to PLC (5 bits per cell).

However, these advancements come with significant technical challenges. Etching the vertical connecting holes (through-silicon vias or TSVs) are harder to achieve and can lead to higher channel resistance. Kioxia proposes solutions such as using single-crystalline silicon instead of polysilicon and switching from tungsten to molybdenum to reduce resistance. They also suggest moving to multi-lane wordlines to reduce the die area needed for electrical connectivity.





While Kioxia focuses on technical solutions, their manufacturing partner Western Digital raises concerns about the economic viability of continued rapid advancement. Western Digital's EVP Robert Soderbery highlighted that 3D NAND requires higher capital intensity but delivers lower cost reduction as bit density increases. He suggested a slowdown in layer count increases to optimize capital deployment and extend the lifetime of each node level, Soderbery stated: "We're no longer on a hamster wheel of nodal migration.".

This difference in perspective could lead to tensions between Kioxia and Western Digital. While Kioxia aims to compete with industry leader Samsung by rapidly increasing layer counts, Western Digital appears more focused on maximizing returns on investment for each node level. This divergence may result in challenging discussions between the partners regarding the pace and timing of future NAND advancements.

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PLC for the win!!
Prepare for 8TB or even 16TB of ultra fassst and HOTTT storage for a lifespan of even 1 year on the military grade products!! /s
 

Nomad76

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PLC for the win!!
Prepare for 8TB or even 16TB of ultra fassst and HOTTT storage for a lifespan of even 1 year on the military grade products!! /s
WD clearly stated that they're not in a race, and I'd bet that 1K-layer NAND won't happen until 2030, at least not at commercial levels.
 
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PLC for the win!!
Prepare for 8TB or even 16TB of ultra fassst and HOTTT storage for a lifespan of even 1 year on the military grade products!! /s
So fast that even MicroSD cards look like they are an alien tech.
 
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We want 3d v-nand (MLC)!!
 
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Sorry to say
We want 3d v-nand (MLC)!!
Sorry to disappoint, but I think MLC, and even TLC are doomed for extinction. Probably TLC still going to be used in some professional grade products, but for consumers, QLC and PLC are the future sadly. There is currently no way to increase capacity like 8TB or 16TB with MLC, even TLC, without paying crazy prices...
 
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Sorry to say

Sorry to disappoint, but I think MLC, and even TLC are doomed for extinction. Probably TLC still going to be used in some professional grade products, but for consumers, QLC and PLC are the future sadly. There is currently no way to increase capacity like 8TB or 16TB with MLC, even TLC, without paying crazy prices...
PLC will hopefully never be a thing. That's ludicrous amount of voltage levels to discriminate (32) in a noisy environment and error control would be a nightmare and wear rates would be absolute trash even compared to garbage class QLC. QLC uptake has been far lower than anticipated as users stay away in droves from this crap. Still waiting for the promise of much better QLC that hasn't delivered on price or capacity even at the atrociously bad performance levels.
 
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