They are overvalued, but this means totally nothing. Tomorrow they announce that they manage to sign a contract for a million MI300X and that they manage to fix all their production problems and their stock price skyrockets, no matter if they are overvalued or undervalued. I was hearing analysts screaming that Nvidia was overvalued when it first hit $70. Considering their splits from that time to today, stock price moved 80 times higher. Because before that 10 for 1 splits, they had done a 4 for 1 split. So that's not a mistake in my maths, because it's close to $140 today, so it's 2 x 4 x 10 = 80. So we see that at $70 it was considered overvalued and at 80 times higher stock price today, some consider it still undervalued.
Going back to AMD, they are overvalued because they keep failing to take advantage of their ....advantages. And time is ticking. Consider Intel fixing it's factory problems and Panther Lake is a beast. Consider Nvidia getting in the laptop/handheld/mini PC even desktop business, with full motherboards/ARM CPUs/SOCs option for Windows on ARM and future Nvidia GPU models selling at a discount on their ARM platform, compared to the models selling for use on the X86 platform. Consider Microsoft switching to Intel or Nvidia for their next XBOX. AMD could be having to deal with much worst conditions in 2-3 years from now. Investors where hopping to see AMD skyrocketing with EPYC, now with Instinct. They did become bigger with EPYC, but at the same time Intel came out with hybrid CPUs and stopped them in retail. They got the chance to start winning market share in gaming with a very good RX 6000 series, only to spill the milk with RX 7000. Their gaming revenues is a joke going back I don't know how many years, maybe even at the pre consoles era. They keep getting more competitive in AI, only to come out and say that they can't produce enough to cover demand. And even in integrated graphics and handhelds, their Z2 series for handhelds looks like a refresh, not a good jump ahead. They seem to have hit a ceiling with their iGPUs and do nothing to fix that. No Infinity Cache, no Sideport Memory or something to help their iGPUs to remain clearly ahead of Intel, to avoid having tomorrow to face a much stronger option from Qualcomm, or Mediatek, or Nvidia.
There is huge mismanagement in AMD, or lack of vision, fear maybe of ending up with huge inventories that they can't sell, meaning they are losing their chances out of fear. They don't book enough capacity to be able to take advantage of their good fortunes and when they have a good product in the market they prefer to see it's price getting inflated than flood the market and grab market share. We seen it in the past when Ryzen 5000 series was a success and prices gone up bacause they couldn't or didn't wanted to cover all the demand, we see it when mining craze could offer them the chance to win gamers, instead they followed Nvidia's game with higher prices, we see now that they are moving prices of X3D models up, we see their repetable stupidity of pricing their new hardware at high MSRP prices and then let the market deside if it will pay those prices or if they will have to do huge discounds just 2 months after the product release (Ryzen 9000).
While I love Su for turning around AMD, she is not capable of making AMD a huge company. She is like that coach that takes a team from near dissaster and makes it competitive, but is incapable of pushing that team in a position to try to win the championship.
