RDNA4 Prediction Time!!!

[Daven]

I think we now have enough leaks/rumors to predict the 9070XT performance, price and power with incredible accuracy. From the latest MLID video, I compiled the fps from each of the games rounded to the nearest 5 for both the 9070XT and the 7800XT:

Game (4K Ultra)	9070XT Ras	7800XT Ras	%Faster	Game	9070XT RT	7800XT RT	%Faster
Watch Dogs Legion	90​	60​	1.50​	Black Myth Wuhong	45​	20​	2.25​
Far Cry 6	115​	80​	1.44​	Hitman 3	30​	20​	1.50​
Forza Horizon 5	155​	110​	1.41​	F1 23	55​	40​	1.38​
Hitman 3	155​	120​	1.29​	Shadow of the TR	80​	50​	1.60​
F1 23	160​	130​	1.23​	Cyberpunk 2077	25​	15​	1.67​
Shadow of the TR	120​	80​	1.50​			Avg​	1.68​
Borderlands 3	100​	70​	1.43​
Horizon Zero Dawn	110​	70​	1.57​
Cyberpunk 2077	60​	40​	1.50​
		Avg​	1.43​

From the RDNA4 CES slides, AMD said the following: (bold emphasis mine)

• Optimized compute units
• Supercharged AI compute
• Improved ray tracing per CU
• Better media encoding quality

So we are potentially looking at a 43% gen ras increase and a 67% RT increase. These increases are reasonable given the following:

Gen Ras
% increase in cores: 7
% increase in bandwidth: 3
% increase in clocks: 21 (2430 MHz going to 2940 MHz)
% increase in gen ras IPC: 6
% increase in monolithic advantages: 6
Total: 43%

RT
% increase in cores: 7
% increase in bandwidth: 3
% increase in clocks: 21 (2430 MHz going to 2940 MHz)
% increase in RT IPC: 31
% increase in monolithic advantages: 6
Total: 68%

This matches the just under 4080 gen ras performance rumors and around 4070Ti and 4070TiS RT performance rumors. I think the 260W power number we are seeing is for gen ras and the 330W power number is for RT. That means overclocked cards will be even higher requiring the three 8-pin power connectors. AMD was probably predicting the 5070 series to be the same or higher than the 4070 series in price. Also AMD is probably targeting the 5070 series RT performance price points (9070XT RT=5070 RT). Since they are $50 less, AMD probably changed their pricing to $50 less giving us the $479 reference and $550 AIB prices. Retailers are probably waiting on their $50 rebate checks from AMD which is delaying the launch.

What do you think?

 

[tfdsaf]

They have a winner in their hands and for some reason they are not launching it next week or at least 2 weeks from now. They have a 4080 performance card for $500, that is a gigantic win. They should have marketed that and released it to the public, it would have been a huge win for AMD.

If the 5070 is 4070ti levels, that means it falls short of the 4080, so AMD would have a 15% faster GPU for 15% less price. That is a huge win. And if Nvidia somehow surprise with their performance in late February, they can just reduce the price even lower to $450 and be say 8% faster, 21% cheaper than the 5070.

 

[N/A]

90% of 4080 to be precise and 5080 is 20% faster. 33% if not 50% faster for a similarly sized chip.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

4080 Raster / 4070ti RT.

Price that @$599 right between the 5070ti and the 5070 and you're doing alright.

 

[INSTG8R]

They have a winner in their hands and for some reason they are not launching it next week or at least 2 weeks from now. They have a 4080 performance card for $500, that is a gigantic win. They should have marketed that and released it to the public, it would have been a huge win for AMD.

If the 5070 is 4070ti levels, that means it falls short of the 4080, so AMD would have a 15% faster GPU for 15% less price. That is a huge win. And if Nvidia somehow surprise with their performance in late February, they can just reduce the price even lower to $450 and be say 8% faster, 21% cheaper than the 5070.

Same mistake they always make. Missing the ideal window of opportunity….

 

[londiste]

AMD themselves pointed out the naming change was to match the names to competitors, meaning 9070 will go up against 5070 and 9070XT against 5070Ti.

Where does MLID's 40-50% claim come from, technically?

Large increases in RT numbers is easy enough to do for AMD given where the results currently are. Especially if the usual suspects with actual heavy RT usage are being measured.

9070XT has the same amount of CUs as 7800XT. Clock speeds on 7800XT were officially 2430MHz boost and seemed to hit roughly that in reviews as well. 9070XT is estimated to get 3000MHz or a bit above. That is a ~25% increase. As opposed to Nvidia who increased memory bandwidth by quite a bit in case of 9070XT it remains the same as 7800XT. That optimized compute units bit should give a good 15% performance boost to reach 40+% numbers.

4080/7900XTX are essentially 50% faster than 7800XT. However, 4070Ti Super is 32%-33% faster and this is where 5070Ti lands purely by spec - any architectural improvements will play on top of that.

Seems like this could be a close race. RDNA4 will bring efficiency improvement over RDNA3, mainly from small node bump and not doing MCM this time around. Theoretical performance is close enough between competing stuff from AMD and Nvidia so it will come down more to how they spec and price their SKUs. With AMD being deafeningly quiet about new GPUs it does look like Nvidia announcement screwed their plans somehow, pricing most likely.

 

[Zazigalka]

Hope this is true, but tbh, MLID is just clickbait spam.

 

[inquisitor1]

im very curious where it will stand for video editing.

id be happy to boot scumbag leather boy nvidia to the curb. but right now, it delivers the goods and significantly so. their drivers hold far far longer in support then amd too.

 

[AusWolf]

I think we now have enough leaks/rumors to predict the 9070XT performance, price and power with incredible accuracy. From the latest MLID video, I compiled the fps from each of the games rounded to the nearest 5 for both the 9070XT and the 7800XT:

Game (4K Ultra)	9070XT Ras	7800XT Ras	%Faster	Game	9070XT RT	7800XT RT	%Faster
Watch Dogs Legion	90​	60​	1.50​	Black Myth Wuhong	45​	20​	2.25​
Far Cry 6	115​	80​	1.44​	Hitman 3	30​	20​	1.50​
Forza Horizon 5	155​	110​	1.41​	F1 23	55​	40​	1.38​
Hitman 3	155​	120​	1.29​	Shadow of the TR	80​	50​	1.60​
F1 23	160​	130​	1.23​	Cyberpunk 2077	25​	15​	1.67​
Shadow of the TR	120​	80​	1.50​			Avg​	1.68​
Borderlands 3	100​	70​	1.43​
Horizon Zero Dawn	110​	70​	1.57​
Cyberpunk 2077	60​	40​	1.50​
		Avg​	1.43​

From the RDNA4 CES slides, AMD said the following: (bold emphasis mine)

• Optimized compute units
• Supercharged AI compute
• Improved ray tracing per CU
• Better media encoding quality

So we are potentially looking at a 43% gen ras increase and a 67% RT increase. These increases are reasonable given the following:

Gen Ras
% increase in cores: 7
% increase in bandwidth: 3
% increase in clocks: 21 (2430 MHz going to 2940 MHz)
% increase in gen ras IPC: 6
% increase in monolithic advantages: 6
Total: 43%

RT
% increase in cores: 7
% increase in bandwidth: 3
% increase in clocks: 21 (2430 MHz going to 2940 MHz)
% increase in RT IPC: 31
% increase in monolithic advantages: 6
Total: 68%

This matches the just under 4080 gen ras performance rumors and around 4070Ti and 4070TiS RT performance rumors. I think the 260W power number we are seeing is for gen ras and the 330W power number is for RT. That means overclocked cards will be even higher requiring the three 8-pin power connectors. AMD was probably predicting the 5070 series to be the same or higher than the 4070 series in price. Also AMD is probably targeting the 5070 series RT performance price points (9070XT RT=5070 RT). Since they are $50 less, AMD probably changed their pricing to $50 less giving us the $479 reference and $550 AIB prices. Retailers are probably waiting on their $50 rebate checks from AMD which is delaying the launch.

What do you think?

That kind of falls where my expectations and hopes are. Whether we'll get it, we'll see.

Hope this is true, but tbh, MLID is just clickbait spam.

I agree, although these numbers seem reasonable (albeit a tad optimistic) to me.

If AMD truly launches a card like that for a reasonable price at the same time as the 5070 launches, it'll be an absolute banger.

 

[rrrrex]

We have 64 compute units, how many of it will be used for RT and FSR4?

 

[AusWolf]

We have 64 compute units, how many of it will be used for RT and FSR4?

Rumour says 64 (highly upgraded) RT cores and an unknown number of AI cores for FSR 4.

 

[Mr_Engineer]

I think saying that the 9070XT will perform the same as a 4080 is pushing it, and it'll probably be closer to the 4070 TI S.

That will still be great if priced around 500-$550 while having much better RT and AI than RDNA3.

 

[Daven]

Without waiting for March, it's looking like three cards should be the most considered from three separate companies for the first time in the GPU space:

Intel Arc B580 - best card in the 'budget' segment especially on sale or after a potential price drop
AMD Radeon 9070XT - best card in the 'mid-range' space especially if priced at or below $500
Nvidia GeForce 5090 - best card for everything if money and heat are not an issue

 

[Assimilator]

Never ceases to amaze me how MLID is trotted out whenever it makes someone's preferred GPU vendor look good, then when its predictions inevitably turn out to be entirely wrong those same people are dead silent. And so the cycle of stupidity repeats.

Intel Arc B580 - best card in the 'budget' segment especially on sale or after a potential price drop

lolno, there's no stock availability and the RTX 4060 is being discounted below B580 MSRP. Nobody is going to pay for an Intel GPU they can't get when they could pay less for an NVIDIA GPU of the same performance that they can have tomorrow. Intel only had to do 1 thing to prevent Battlemage from flopping - ensure stock levels - and they failed.

 

[Dr. Dro]

Without waiting for March, it's looking like three cards should be the most considered from three separate companies for the first time in the GPU space:

Intel Arc B580 - best card in the 'budget' segment especially on sale or after a potential price drop
AMD Radeon 9070XT - best card in the 'mid-range' space especially if priced at or below $500
Nvidia GeForce 5090 - best card for everything if money and heat are not an issue

I reckon you are preemptively bestowing that honor upon a product that has not yet earned the right to be called that. It is entirely possible that AMD will fail to capture the mid range if this GPU doesn't offer stronger performance than the RTX 5070 series, because we already know for a fact that its feature set is inferior to that of Ada, let alone Blackwell. And Blackwell did not exactly add that many new tricks over Ada. And I will go a step beyond, considering AMD's behavior, which clearly displays that they do not have confidence on the product themselves, that is a likely scenario where there is no actual reason to buy an AMD card other than you being an AMD diehard, and that is a bad place to be.

The B580 scenario... it's all down to stock, and as @Assimilator pointed out, pretty much nobody will buy a B580 over an RTX 4060 if they're being sold at the same price.

 

[dgianstefani]

RDOA 4 given this release delay joke.

 

[Assimilator]

RDOA 4 given this release delay joke.

Oooh, I like that! Gonna start posting it every time the usual suspects screech "ngreedia".

 

[Hecate91]

Hopefully the rumors are true, but it's MLID so take it with a truckload of salt.

Also "rdoa4"? Really? Not surprising but not very professional or mature for being a staff member lol.

 

[Assimilator]

Hopefully the rumors are true, but it's MLID so take it with a truckload of salt.

Also "rdoa4"? Really? Not surprising but not very professional or mature for being a staff member lol.

U mad bro? You seem mad.

 

[Dr. Dro]

Hopefully the rumors are true, but it's MLID so take it with a truckload of salt.

Also "rdoa4"? Really? Not surprising but not very professional or mature for being a staff member lol.

Bleh. I've seen that accusation thrown at @dgianstefani more times than I could count. He's a proofreader, not in a position to make a technical statement for the site, ergo, off the clock he's just a regular forum poster like the rest of us. If there was reason not to consider this to be "RDOA 4", we aren't seeing it. So far, we have a single statement from a very senior official at AMD that basically ignores the issue at hand and provides no clarification to their potential customers, there is zero transparency and active avoidance by the company as if they don't really wanna talk about their supposedly latest and greatest product.

All we have so far is mountains of salt and endless cope, comparing it against the 4th tier last-gen Radeon product (because then gains of 50% look decent), claiming that "they don't really want to make high end graphics this generation, lol", amongst many others. To anyone who has no emotional attachment to AMD, it looks suspect at best, and to anyone who actually questions them, this looks straight up embarrassing.

 

[Hecate91]

U mad bro? You seem mad.

Good one.
You get deeply offended at anyone who says "ngreedia" or "leather jacket man" but not at equally stupid remarks? The classic bias of the team green mindshare.

He's a proofreader, not in a position to make a technical statement for the site,

He is staff nonetheless, I expect anyone with the badge to at least act in mature manner and quit with the stupid remarks.

So far, we have a single statement from a very senior official at AMD

Yes all we have is a twitter post, and AMD themselves saying Q1 of 2025, yet people are already insisting it's doom and gloom for AMD, and the extra impatient ones are saying they're just going to buy Nvidia, even though they were realistically never going to buy an AMD card anyway.

 

[remekra]

The only thing confirmed by AMD is that they changed the name to fit their competition and that leaks are wrong.
It would make no sense to change the name only to compare those cards to competition last gen, even more so if they plan to launch in March after 5070 and Ti are out.
What makes sense is that XT will be their Ti from now on.
So 9070 should have performance around 5070 and 9070XT around 5070 Ti.
With probably worse RT than those cards but who knows how much they improved it.
As for pricing people are too optimistic I think.

I would bet 699 for XT or 649 and 499 or 449 for 9070.
Release them after reviews are out for Nvidia parts and say that people can have similar performance with a little cheaper price.
But we'll see in March.

 

[mkppo]

I'm guessing it'll fall between 7900XT and 7900XTX in raster and slightly faster than XTX in RT.

Given the amount of time they have, they should have their drivers, firmwares, feature set and everything else optimized and ready to go. The launch better be smooth but with AMD's GPU division you can never tell.

It'll be really hard to fumble this one tbh unless they price it terribly so I really don't think it'll be DOA. In fact, price it right and the 5070 should be DOA but obv not in terms of sales because you know, little green gamers will flock to it regardless because DLSS is 17x better and only nvidia can do RT, it's in the name.

 

[Assimilator]

Good one.
You get deeply offended at anyone who says "ngreedia" or "leather jacket man"

I don't, though. It's just that in every context these epithets are used, it's by someone who has no actual argument and is merely using it to provoke an emotional response (intense irritation in my case). If I can provoke the same response in that type of person, I've accomplished far more than trying to have an honest argument with them, and with far less effort on my part.

but not at equally stupid remarks? The classic bias of the team green mindshare.

Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.

 

[evernessince]

Bleh. I've seen that accusation thrown at @dgianstefani more times than I could count. He's a proofreader, not in a position to make a technical statement for the site, ergo, off the clock he's just a regular forum poster like the rest of us.

You aren't "off the clock" if you are on your official staff account and most certainly not a regular poster. Staff accounts have special privileges and cannot be ignored.

Perhaps TPU should be like every other business and require that personal postings be done on a personal, non-staff, account. That's common sense.

There's no right to complain that people associate staff opinions as official opinion, they are posting on an official account after all.