I am unsure if platforms would do a per copy contract as you explain here, if it fails both sides are out the money. I think it would make more sense if they did a time base contract for exclusivity. You never can tell what the outcome will be. Gamestop losing its ass currently ( see home page article) might make sales worse early on. Its speculation, which is really 50-50 guessing.
If it fails, EGS is out money. No doubt EGS bases its estimates on what they think will actually sell in the exclusivity period. As long as EGS is right, it's money that will come back to them during the exclusivity. EGS isn't a publisher; it's a distributor. The way they structure exclusivity fits the model of distributing. Sales forecasts are something they do regardless if it is exclusive or not. Handling the money from sales is another thing they do regardless of exclusivity.
Yes, what EGS is doing is very, very risky, which is why I don't think they can keep this up forever, especially with AAA games; however, for the time being, it is worth it for them to build their notoriety. Exclusivity is effectively a marketing campaign for the games and EGS itself.
I dunno, Steam's a beast of a platform, it's really hard to compete with, except on the cut they take.
Which is the only thing publishers care about. No money = no more games.
Edit: Incase ya'll forgot, Steam responded to Epic Games Store at the end of last year:
https://www.geekwire.com/2018/valve...spur-controversy-among-indie-game-developers/
They adjusted their pricing schemes to make Steam more attractive to AAA publishers (judging by how many still jumped ship for EGS, it didn't work) but in doing so, they trampled the indie developers.
Greg Lubanov said:
The 30% cut that Valve takes from Steam sales is supposedly ‘earned’ by the large audience and exposure that they provide. But their algorithms heavily favor games that are already popular, so most devs on their platform get less, and now, pay more.
Mike Rose said:
It’s just such a tone-deaf move by Valve. The number one thing devs ask me at conferences, without fail, is “do you think Valve are still within their right to ask for 30% anymore?”. My answer is always “Kinda, they do X, Y and Z which is really cool”
This has changed my answer
...hence why EGS is booming. Steam has become antagonizing to publishers.
Also keep in mind that whenever you redeem a key on Steam, Steam didn't necessarily get money for it to cover distribution costs. Steam changed their policies to attempt to crack down on this problem back in 2017:
https://hardforum.com/threads/valve...r-steam-keys-due-to-shady-developers.1942197/
Steam may not be able to afford to reduce their revenue-share much because they're supporting an entire second hand/gray market industry that isn't funding them. Steam has no means at present to police and enforce the distribution fees and...if they tried, it could trigger an exodus of publishers to competitors. EGS obviously has some kind of plan to deal with that problem (likely by getting directly involved in the key generation process) so abuse isn't rampant.
Every time you buy a Steam key from Humble Bundle, GreenManGaming, Fanatical, etc., Steam doesn't see a cent of that:
https://partner.steamgames.com/doc/features/keys
In the case of Humble Bundle, they take 5% of the sale for themselves and that's it. As far as Steam is concerned, it's basically robbery because Steam is still eating the distribution cost.