Semiconductor Makers Don't Expect Russia-Ukraine War to Worsen Chip Shortages

[Raevenlord]

Much of the globalized world's logistics is still in disarray from the COVID-19 pandemic, and now, Russia has thrown its weight on the matter through its invasion of Ukraine. As the initial offensive played out in the early hours of February 24th, semiconductor industry analysts turned to the situation with a prying eye - how exactly could this deadlock, and the following political and economical sanctions towards Russia, impact the semiconductor industry? The consensus seems to be a favorable one: not that much.

"The semiconductor industry has a diverse set of suppliers of key materials and gases, so we do not believe there are immediate supply disruption risks related to Russia and Ukraine," said John Neuffer, chief executive and president of the Semiconductor Industry Association. That sentiment was echoed by Intel; a company representative told Bloomberg that the company does not anticipate "(...) any impact on our supply chain. Our strategy of having a diverse, global supply chain minimizes our risk of potential local interruptions."





Ukraine stands as the world's largest exporter of neon, a noble gas require for several steps in the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain. Companies like ASML and Micron stand as some of the biggest buyers for Ukrainian neon; but those companies have announced that their stockpiled neon and globalized supply sources for the noble gas were up to the task of curbing any severe impact resulting from damages to Ukraine's manufacturing and logistics capabilities.

"For Micron, we have a small part of our noble gases coming from Ukraine and, of course, we carry large inventory but more importantly have multiple sources of supply […] and we have long terms of supply with those suppliers," said Sanjay Mehrotra, chief executive of Micron, in a Bloomberg interview. "While we continue to monitor the situation carefully and certainly hope the situation will de-escalate, we believe, based on current analysis, that our supply chain of noble gases is in reasonable shape."

It remains to be seen how the conflict will impact the world's supply chains, but one thing is for sure: there will be economic consequences to the move from Russia which will reverberate - and are reverberating already - throughout the world's markets. It just seems that semiconductor manufacturing won't be one of the industries caught in the crossfire. There's already too much of humanity in that position, anyway.

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[repman244]

It's weird how market wasn't impacted by several invasions by some other country in recent years, but when it comes to this one it's like the world is ending.

Disclamer: I don't support any war - it only brings suffering for everyone, but I hate hypocrites.

 

[Raevenlord]

It's weird how market wasn't impacted by several invasions by some other country in recent years, but when it comes to this one it's like the world is ending.

Disclamer: I don't support any war - it only brings suffering for everyone, but I hate hypocrites.

Geopolitically, it's a whole different beast from other wars far-removed from the western world. I understand your point, but this conflict puts the global stage on the brink of World War III unless good decisions are made throughout.

 

[Aquinus]

Geopolitically, it's a whole different beast from other wars far-removed from the western world. I understand your point, but this conflict puts the global stage on the brink of World War III unless good decisions are made throughout.

This. This war has the potential to expand and to draw other nations into it. Ukraine borders several countries that are part of NATO. This clearly provocative action by Russia could draw NATO as a whole into a war with Russia should it spill over from Ukraine. I think what we're going to see is further militarization of those border countries such as Poland. This is a war that hits far closer to home for the western world than other wars in recent history.

 

[Cutechri]

Why would it?

 

[repman244]

This. This war has the potential to expand and to draw other nations into it. Ukraine borders several countries that are part of NATO. This clearly provocative action by Russia could draw NATO as a whole into a war with Russia should it spill over from Ukraine. I think what we're going to see is further militarization of those border countries such as Poland. This is a war that hits far closer to home for the western world than other wars in recent history.

The sooner it ends the better IMO.
But the provocative actions were already started in 2014 and not by Russia alone.

The feeling of this conflict is different because it's right at the doorstep of "western" countries - and most of the people had no close contact with aggression. Most of these people probably supported all previous conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc. because it did not impact them at all - they didn't care about all the casualties that happened there since it was "far away".
War is hell and nobody should experience it (I did).

 

[phanbuey]

This is a blueprint for Taiwan.

 

[Steevo]

This is a blueprint for Taiwan.

China will step up to support their ally Russia and then take Taiwan and our demented leader will stutter, crap his pants and possibly start WW3.

Then we will have no new tech for 5 years while we work on building our own fabs

The sooner it ends the better IMO.
But the provocative actions were already started in 2014 and not by Russia alone.

The feeling of this conflict is different because it's right at the doorstep of "western" countries - and most of the people had no close contact with aggression. Most of these people probably supported all previous conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc. because it did not impact them at all - they didn't care about all the casualties that happened there since it was "far away".
War is hell and nobody should experience it (I did).

Ukraine has been a corrupt oligarchy, just look up the video of Biden saying he would withhold a billion in aid to Ukraine if the investigator that was looking at the company his son worked for wasn’t fired. Biden only cares as the kickback stream keeping his son in coke and hookers is going to end.

 

[DeathtoGnomes]

our demented leader will stutter, crap his pants and possibly start WW3.

Its pretty sad to say this of US leadership, no matter how true it is. Weak leadership is a trait for "that party". IMO, Russia needs the income for this little foray into such vacation spots, so likely will not interfere with anything that supports its wallets. I think.. (Shhh), supply and demand will not be affected until after this turmoil, at which time it will be China's turn to play patty-cake with Taiwan.

 

[Diverge]

Until China controls TSMC... China is already helping Russia mitigate sanctions by buying their stuff. They will help China in return.

 

[TheUn4seen]

It's funny how the tide turns, now Russia and China are quickly becoming the "axis of evil". And rightfully so, with all my contempt for mindlessly predatory capitalism, I personally believe that the world can't move forward with the communist anvil strapped to it's back. Especially when on this anvil sit an old man obsessed with becoming a tsar by any means necessary, waving his nuclear stockpile around and a bunch of equally demented old people obsessed with power. When tension is so high, something will happen, said my ancestor in 1938...

 

[Recus]

Brain dead Putin.

 

[mechtech]

It's funny how the tide turns, now Russia and China are quickly becoming the "axis of evil". And rightfully so, with all my contempt for mindlessly predatory capitalism, I personally believe that the world can't move forward with the communist anvil strapped to it's back. Especially when on this anvil sit an old man obsessed with becoming a tsar by any means necessary, waving his nuclear stockpile around and a bunch of equally demented old people obsessed with power. When tension is so high, something will happen, said my ancestor in 1938...

I wouldn't even call it communist/ism. It's a dictator, king, emperor, whatever you want to call it. The person in power just calls it what they want to avoid looking like a megalomaniac.

Anyway, hopefully it doesn't spiral out of control and all the leaders and media remain calm and focussed so we don't have WW3!! I'm just glad I don't live on that side of the globe right now, and feel sorry for anyone who does. Scary stuff. I think semi-conductor shortage is the least of our worries now.

 

[MentalAcetylide]

The west basically took a dump on Russia repeatedly after the "collapse" of the Soviet Union and just threw a lot off money at them to keep their nukes secure from the hands of terrorists/rogue nations. Granted, I don't believe for a minute there was really any genuine change in their agendas given that their rebranding as a "democracy" was brought about by the government itself out of necessity rather than by the people of Russia as a whole. Unfortunately, NATO, an organization created to specifically counter Russia(when it was the USSR), gave them a multitude of excuses on a silver platter to do what it has been doing. I don't have any illusions that Russia's intentions are good, but the west really dropped the ball on this and are partly to blame for the situation in Ukraine.

 

[kapone32]

The west basically took a dump on Russia repeatedly after the "collapse" of the Soviet Union and just threw a lot off money at them to keep their nukes secure from the hands of terrorists/rogue nations. Granted, I don't believe for a minute there was really any genuine change in their agendas given that their rebranding as a "democracy" was brought about by the government itself out of necessity rather than by the people of Russia as a whole. Unfortunately, NATO, an organization created to specifically counter Russia(when it was the USSR), gave them a multitude of excuses on a silver platter to do what it has been doing. I don't have any illusions that Russia's intentions are good, but the west really dropped the ball on this and are partly to blame for the situation in Ukraine.

The Ukraine is a very special case but is it the fault of hte West that it has failed? What can you blame NATO for? The world was a different place but when the Wall fell the West had already gone to China. If it was not for the reconstruction of Germany Europe would already be on it's knees financially and economically. Having said that Chernobyl is in the Ukraine and outside of mining there is no economy as a result. This is not going to stop anytime soon either. The Weapons I see on display are not meant for Regional skirmishes. All of this can be squarely placed at the feet of Putin and Chi though. We are at a point of no return. How much more relevance will this article have if (when ) China invades Taiwan to gain access to it's fabs and foundrys. On some stupid far right circles they are saying Taiwan is a province of China.

Until China controls TSMC... China is already helping Russia mitigate sanctions by buying their stuff. They will help China in return.

China and Russia have never been enemies. They are very much like Canada and the USA. Regardless of what they say. Those troops that came out of Belarus had to travel through China to get there.

 

[oobymach]

Brain dead Putin.

Talk like that in Russia can get you killed, literally they kill people for speaking out against Putin especially reporters, they shoot you and leave the gun at the scene. Not saying he's a saint but Russia has been worse off than under his thumb.

 

[my_name_is_earl]

It won't, but when China started to get involved in the war, then we will have huge problem. Last thing I want to worried about is chip shortages at that point.

 

[Wirko]

A lot of things happen while moderators are taking a nap.

 

[Why_Me]

The Ukraine is a very special case but is it the fault of hte West that it has failed? What can you blame NATO for? The world was a different place but when the Wall fell the West had already gone to China. If it was not for the reconstruction of Germany Europe would already be on it's knees financially and economically. Having said that Chernobyl is in the Ukraine and outside of mining there is no economy as a result. This is not going to stop anytime soon either. The Weapons I see on display are not meant for Regional skirmishes. All of this can be squarely placed at the feet of Putin and Chi though. We are at a point of no return. How much more relevance will this article have if (when ) China invades Taiwan to gain access to it's fabs and foundrys. On some stupid far right circles they are saying Taiwan is a province of China. China and Russia have never been enemies. They are very much like Canada and the USA. Regardless of what they say. Those troops that came out of Belarus had to travel through China to get there.

Belarus borders Russia so not sure why those troops would have to travel through China.

 

[umdterps71]

China and Russia have never been enemies. They are very much like Canada and the USA. Regardless of what they say. Those troops that came out of Belarus had to travel through China to get there.

Look up the Sino-Soviet border conflict.

 

[Pilgrim]

It's weird how market wasn't impacted by several invasions by some other country in recent years, but when it comes to this one it's like the world is ending.

Disclamer: I don't support any war - it only brings suffering for everyone, but I hate hypocrites.

Because other conflicts didn't involve the world's largest nuclear state invading a soon to be NATO country. One wrong move and we have World War III.

 

[repman244]

Because other conflicts didn't involve the world's largest nuclear state invading a soon to be NATO country. One wrong move and we have World War III.

But other conflicts involved a country which is the only one that used nuclear weapons on people.

The wrong move was already done 8 years ago by NATO. Like I said I hate hypocrites.

 

[Why_Me]

Because other conflicts didn't involve the world's largest nuclear state invading a soon to be NATO country. One wrong move and we have World War III.

Pushing Ukraine towards NATO is what started this.

 

[MentalAcetylide]

The Ukraine is a very special case but is it the fault of hte West that it has failed? What can you blame NATO for? The world was a different place but when the Wall fell the West had already gone to China. If it was not for the reconstruction of Germany Europe would already be on it's knees financially and economically. Having said that Chernobyl is in the Ukraine and outside of mining there is no economy as a result. This is not going to stop anytime soon either. The Weapons I see on display are not meant for Regional skirmishes. All of this can be squarely placed at the feet of Putin and Chi though. We are at a point of no return. How much more relevance will this article have if (when ) China invades Taiwan to gain access to it's fabs and foundrys. On some stupid far right circles they are saying Taiwan is a province of China.


China and Russia have never been enemies. They are very much like Canada and the USA. Regardless of what they say. Those troops that came out of Belarus had to travel through China to get there.

We can blame NATO with their continued expansion towards Russia. What does Ukraine have that the west wants? Titanium? Iron? I don't recall the US being hard up on those resources. The only thing I can think of is land positioning in relation to Russia. Imo, if NATO wanted to expand in that direction, the first country they should've added: Russia. Not saying it would've been a good idea, but that should be the starting point before trying to integrate those other nations given those former USSR satellites have a lot more in common with Russia than probably any other country, plus they're right next door to them. Yeah, sovereign countries should be free to join whatever organization/alliance floats their boat, but it doesn't necessarily mean they should; especially if it can negatively impact their neighbor(s).
Nevertheless, the way I see it, the west played right into the hands of Putin. I think one of his primary goals all along was to bring Ukraine(or at least part of it) back into the fold whether it be by diplomacy or war. Two steps forward, one step back, so depending on how things go for the invading Russians, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia partly pulls out of Ukraine and keeps everything east of the Dnieper unless there's something else they want further west.

 

[kapone32]

We can blame NATO with their continued expansion towards Russia. What does Ukraine have that the west wants? Titanium? Iron? I don't recall the US being hard up on those resources. The only thing I can think of is land positioning in relation to Russia. Imo, if NATO wanted to expand in that direction, the first country they should've added: Russia. Not saying it would've been a good idea, but that should be the starting point before trying to integrate those other nations given those former USSR satellites have a lot more in common with Russia than probably any other country, plus they're right next door to them. Yeah, sovereign countries should be free to join whatever organization/alliance floats their boat, but it doesn't necessarily mean they should; especially if it can negatively impact their neighbor(s).
Nevertheless, the way I see it, the west played right into the hands of Putin. I think one of his primary goals all along was to bring Ukraine(or at least part of it) back into the fold whether it be by diplomacy or war. Two steps forward, one step back, so depending on how things go for the invading Russians, I wouldn't be surprised if Russia partly pulls out of Ukraine and keeps everything east of the Dnieper unless there's something else they want further west.

I do understand what you are saying but there is one thing that you are forgetting. Everything that is going to happen will be a result of Putin's mind state. It is obvious that he believes his own rhetoric. Regardless of how we look at it the people that live in the former satellites decided that they wanted democracy and to ensure that have joined NATO. The West does not want anything from Ukraine (other than Barbie wives online) but Ukraine does produce a lot of Neon. I hope that you are right and he stays where is but I don't see them starting a campaign at the end of winter to go back home. I do believe that he wants to recreate the Soviet Empire (he said that) and calling the president of Ukraine a Neo Nazi (when his last name cannot be not Jewish) and says there are artillery pieces in the city of Kiev aimed at Russia??????? We can only hope that common sense wins out but with the Human Equation there is no guarantee. The main reason we should barbecue his ass is why Ukraine is special to the West......Chernobyl. Apparently the fighting damaged some of the protection protocol and the radiation intensity has increased. The Government of the Ukraine have said that it is not worrying. Before I go on though I must ask you what you know about Chernobyl. We were scared after Fukushima fell into the Ocean.