Chances of Intel Going Fabless Higher Than Ever

[oxidized]

Smartcom5's Novel

I want to start by thanking you for the huge wall of text you wrote, which was filled basically only with stuff you came up with, aside from a few facts. So i won't comment on that, because it would be a waste of time.

The thing is, here we're not talking about opinions of points of view, we're talking about facts. Facts say neither AMD nor Intel have nothing tangible to prove their words, nor that 7nm is ready to ship next year, nor that Intel should be able to launch Q4'19. And there's nothing that says otherwise besides words from both companies. I know very well intel's own roadmap is delayed, and they main reason for that is that they spent too much time with 14nm, which are so good now, that realizing a good 10nm which will actually show noticeable gains, is pretty hard, and that's also what was said around the internet, so this too could be a fuss and they could be having big troubles as you say, but even that is another news that nobody can confirm for certain, so i just don't get it how can you be so sure about stuff nobody except respective companies know. They said they should be able to launch products with 10nm by the end of 2019, what if it's all a bluff? What if they just can't get it right at all? What if they said that but they could be able to ship earlier than that, and what they said is only part of a market tactic to play? We can't know anything for sure, so you better stop acting like the truth is in front of us, because what you're seeing, i'm not, and viceversa.
Facts on the other hand are that Intel's architecture as old as it may be, it still shows what it's capable of versus a much newer architecture that is ryzen, and most of the times it also pulls ahead, even being short of cores/threads compared to ryzen.
Another fact is current process superiority, Intel, stupidly or not, they have a perfect 14nm, which smokes in every case what the other foundries have, and the 7nm TSMC is said to have ready, could even be not that much better than Intel's super refined 14nm, because if they work, like they had in the last processes, they will only make a "decent enough" 7nm, just good enough to secure a decent gain compared to THEIR own 14nm, not to the competition's.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

@Smartcom5, it comes from the fact that Intel has been sitting on the high throne while drinking their own Kool-Aid for so long. They've been caught up in their own superiority, their own ego. What we're seeing here with Intel is what happens when a company gets drunk on their own Kool-Aid.

I hope you're wrong. We really do need a revolution in process tech and hopefully Intel has been working on that on the side while 10nm falls flat on its face. If you're right then I really hope someone else will bring about the necessary revolution or process tech advancement is going to grind to a halt in a decade or two.

 

[londiste]

Do you really think Intel has not been doing a lot of R&D in this time?
I mean, I get it - Intel is the big bad and evil incarnate but they are most definitely not incompetent. Just the opposite.

In today's related news - GlobalFoundries is out of the race for 7nm:
GlobalFoundries Stops All 7nm Development: Opts To Focus on Specialized Processes

GF is realigning its leading-edge FinFET roadmap to serve the next wave of clients that will adopt the technology in the coming years. The company will shift development resources to make its 14/12nm FinFET platform more relevant to these clients, delivering a range of innovative IP and features including RF, embedded memory, low power and more. To support this transition, GF is putting its 7nm FinFET program on hold indefinitely and restructuring its research and development teams to support its enhanced portfolio initiatives. This will require a workforce reduction, however a significant number of top technologists will be redeployed on 14/12nm FinFET derivatives and other differentiated offerings.

Perhaps relevant to this topic of moving production targets:

It is noteworthy that when GlobalFoundries first announced its 7LP platform in September 2016, it said that it would start risk production of processors using this technology in early 2018 (PR), which means that the first chips should have been taped out before that. When the company detailed the process in June 2018, it said that it expected to start “volume production ramping in the second half of 2018” (PR), which would be close to impossible if customers taped out their first chips only in Q4.
Generally, it looks like the company had to adjust its roadmap somewhere along the way, moving the start of high-volume manufacturing (HVM) further into 2019.

 

[R0H1T]

I hope you're wrong. We really do need a revolution in process tech and hopefully Intel has been working on that on the side while 10nm falls flat on its face. If you're right then I really hope someone else will bring about the necessary revolution or process tech advancement is going to grind to a halt in a decade or two.

Half a decade, give or take a couple of years - GlobalFoundries Puts its 7 nm Program on Hold Indefinitely

 

[londiste]

Another fact is current process superiority, Intel, stupidly or not, they have a perfect 14nm, which smokes in every case what the other foundries have, and the 7nm TSMC is said to have ready, could even be not that much better than Intel's super refined 14nm, because if they work, like they had in the last processes, they will only make a "decent enough" 7nm, just good enough to secure a decent gain compared to THEIR own 14nm, not to the competition's.

7nm brings close to twofold increase in transistor density along with lower power usage. Even if the maximum frequency is not there, these will bring in a lot of customers.

I hope you're wrong. We really do need a revolution in process tech and hopefully Intel has been working on that on the side while 10nm falls flat on its face. If you're right then I really hope someone else will bring about the necessary revolution or process tech advancement is going to grind to a halt in a decade or two.

It's more of an evolution than revolution and Intel is right at the cutting edge. From what we know, even more so than TSMC at this point. Samsung is making the additional bet on EUV for 7nm right from get-go which is a risk and could go either way but should be a major benefit for them in the long term since that is where lithography is inevitably going (both Intel and TSMC will move to EUV with 10+nm and 7+nm respectively).

 

[oxidized]

7nm brings close to twofold increase in transistor density along with lower power usage. Even if the maximum frequency is not there, these will bring in a lot of customers.

No, that depends on how those are made, they won't necessarily bring twice the transistor density, not even if they respect the ITRS rules, and they probably won't, as seen with previous processes.