General Cryptocoin Discussion

[RandallFlagg]

I definitely don't think it's easily tipped over at least.

Indeed. The bridge analogy is apt, each girder pushes on another, each tension line pulls on the girders, until all the force is distributed to a few key spots at the foundation.

Engineers who inspect bridges know what to look for, they know how it works. Usually when a bridge collapses, you find an inspector not doing their job, on the take in some fashion by a construction company, or whose reports are suppressed by their political superiors who themselves are on the take.

Which brings me back to my point about the big, regulated investment funds like Tiger and BlackRock. This is not as much of a guessing game for them as people would like to believe, they know what to look for.

It would be one thing if FTX had sophisticated accountants cooking the books for ingestion by potential investors like Tiger/BlackRock. But they didn't, they apparently didn't have anything. I mean their accounting was being done from a $250 QuickBooks program. This is the difference between Madoff and SBF, Madoff was a pro and had a cadre of pros helping him commit fraud, SBF was just an small time con artist with no sophistication whatsoever and whose method can be summed up as "baffle them with BS".

I have to conclude that these big investment houses are not doing their due diligence, which takes me back to the bridge analogy, and the inspectors..

 

[the54thvoid]

Those big investment houses still probably rely on one or two over paid and over confident humans. It only takes one 'I know best' asshole to sink a company.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Those big investment houses still probably rely on one or two over paid and over confident humans. It only takes one 'I know best' asshole to sink a company.

Based on my readings with Matt Levine, executives at big investment houses are given very large amounts of leeway to earn, or lose, $Billions at a time.

If an executive loses $1 or $2 Billion over bad bets, that executive's career is over... but the firm writes it off undamaged. Companies like Blackrock are measured in the $10 Trillion+ range (aka: $10,000 Billion+). They don't really care if they lose $1 or $2 Billion over the course of a year or two. Its just the cost of doing business. Even then, these executives that lose $Billions are often seen as "learning from their mistake" and are often offered a job at other firms. So even the executives aren't always punished for such recklessness.

The idea that the big companies are "more conservative" is just innately wrong. The bigger companies can afford to be more reckless, because $1, $2, or even $10 Billion mistakes don't even phaze them.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I'd say I've been hearing that for 40 years. It's like someone who looks at a small part of a bridge's girders without seeing its relationship to the whole, and says it's a house of cards easily tipped over.

And then the bridge lasts for 100 years.

Interesting analogy. Doesn't exactly work here though..

 

[RandallFlagg]

No wonder SBF was shaking at his extradition hearing in the Bahamas.

All his friends \ conspirators are con artists, what did he really think was going to happen? Rats and a sinking ship.

FTX's Gary Wang, Alameda's Caroline Ellison plead guilty to federal charges, cooperating with prosecutors

Ellison, 28, and Wang, 29, become the second and third individuals to be charged in connection with FTX's multibillion-dollar collapse

www.cnbc.com

Here's the prison he's been staying at. He waived formal extradition processing so he could get back to the US quicker :

 

[Bomby569]

Bitcoin (the one that really matters to evaluate crypto) is at late 2020 levels. When the money printing was at full speed.
It's kind of surprising to me, that with all that is happening in crypto and the economy in general that's where Bitcoin is, i would say it's a very good sign if you can read between the lines.

I would expect it to be much lower tbh.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Bitcoin (the one that really matters to evaluate crypto) is at late 2020 levels. When the money printing was at full speed.
It's kind of surprising to me, that with all that is happening in crypto and the economy in general that's where Bitcoin is, i would say it's a very good sign if you can read between the lines.

I would expect it to be much lower tbh.

You can say the same exact thing of essentially all markets. NAS, DOW, S&P, even things like Gold have not moved substantially from late 2020 levels. Oil is one of a few winners here.

It's worth noting that, in inflation-adjusted terms, most markets are down about 16% more than what their nominal value on a chart shows. It seems like the only investors who take note of that are bond investors, but it affects all investments equally.

 

[Bomby569]

You can say the same exact thing of essentially all markets. NAS, DOW, S&P, even things like Gold have not moved substantially from late 2020 levels. Oil is one of a few winners here.

It's worth noting that, in inflation-adjusted terms, most markets are down about 16% more than what their nominal value on a chart shows. It seems like the only investors who take note of that are bond investors, but it affects all investments equally.

you're making my point, if crypto with their own specific problems are at the same level as DOW, S&P, etc... then it's an amazing place to be.

 

[ThrashZone]

You can say the same exact thing of essentially all markets. NAS, DOW, S&P, even things like Gold have not moved substantially from late 2020 levels. Oil is one of a few winners here.

It's worth noting that, in inflation-adjusted terms, most markets are down about 16% more than what their nominal value on a chart shows. It seems like the only investors who take note of that are bond investors, but it affects all investments equally.

Hi,
Taking away that sweet cheap money tends to slow things down
Way to may interest rate increases to go unnoticed.

 

[RandallFlagg]

you're making my point, if crypto with their own specific problems are at the same level as DOW, S&P, etc... then it's an amazing place to be.

Or alternately, none of them are a good place to be.

 

[Bomby569]

Or alternately, none of them are a good place to be.

that's insane optimism if you're telling me you'd expect crypto to do better

 

[RandallFlagg]

that's insane optimism if you're telling me you'd expect crypto to do better

I view crypto as the most risk-on speculative item in existence, second only to NFTs.

As such, it's a bell-weather. If it's holding up, the pain level is nowhere near high enough.

 

[Bomby569]

I view crypto as the most risk-on speculative item in existence, second only to NFTs.

As such, it's a bell-weather. If it's holding up, the pain level is nowhere near high enough.

i sold my reddit avatar for 300usd so i can only say NFT's are amazing. Definitely the future and everyone should buy more

 

[RandallFlagg]

i sold my reddit avatar for 300usd so i can only say NFT's are amazing. Definitely the future and everyone should buy more

Ponzi scheme - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Bomby569]

Ponzi scheme - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

i don't think it applies to NFT's. They are just plain stupid. It doesn't enter my mind how people go for this. And mind you not everybody is in it for resale. I had so many offers for it on reddit, some clearly to resale but some really wanted to use it.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

i don't think it applies to NFT's. They are just plain stupid. It doesn't enter my mind how people go for this. And mind you not everybody is in it for resale. I had so many offers for it on reddit, some clearly to resale but some really wanted to use it.

The NFT market has some, uh, unique factors behind it, but it mostly resembles a regular speculation bubble more than a Ponzi scheme to me.

 

[dragontamer5788]

SBF Posted a $250,000,000 bail (or at least, his parents posted the bail for him).

Gotta be nice to have rich parents.

 

[Bomby569]

SBF Posted a $250,000,000 bail (or at least, his parents posted the bail for him).

Gotta be nice to have rich parents.

kind of unfair that someone that made so many people lose so much money can still be out of jail even on bail. He better not go out much and find some of the people he stole from

 

[trog100]

kind of unfair that someone that made so many people lose so much money can still be out of jail even on bail. He better not go out much and find some of the people he stole from

he is under house arrest with his parents not exactly free.. ether way this thing goes deeper than we know about..

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

ether way this thing goes deeper than we know about..

Very likely.

 

[Anoldnewb]

I think we're needlessly tripping over the phrase "in general." Crypto is good for freedom of any sort, is what I mean. It has some specific uses that aid in creating a more free society, sure. But it's also just good for freedom as an idea. For some of us, freedom is not a means, but an end. I also think we don't agree on the meaning of freedom in the first place, so here. Read this.

Non-aggression principle - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I don't know about GBP, but the US is literally printing money constantly, every second of every day. And GBP's value is as inextricably tied to the USD as our countries' economies are, so I can't imagine that bodes well for you either.
As for crypto, a regular joe can learn about how crypto works. Once he has educated himself, and understands the algorithms involved, he will know beyond a shadow of a doubt that BTC is finite. If Joe doesn't want to educate himself, then he'll just have to take my word for it that it's mathematically impossible to create more BTC than the maximum. (Note, this does not apply to ALL cryptocurrencies. Some are infinitely mintable.)
Or, joe can refuse to either educate himself or take my word for it, and just live his life in a state of being wrong. Doesn't hurt me.

As for the last part about cars, and you buying all of them up... Yep. Now you've got the picture!

The USD and GBP are not inexorably linked, the exchange rate between them varies according to their relative desirability. For example when LizTruss proposed a set of ill considered economic reforms, the GBP plummeted since the reforms made investing in the UK (and holding GBP) less desirable.

 

[Bomby569]

Luna/Terra and FTX really did a number on crypto, let's hope 2023 brings less crypto scum

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Hope all crypo is next to fall it's bs anyway as proven.

 

[Bomby569]

Hi,
Hope all crypo is next to fall it's bs anyway as proven.

i disagree, crypto is a good idea ruined by bad people, general greed, low lifes that want to get rich with no work.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Hi,
Hope all crypo is next to fall it's bs anyway as proven.

That or come under regulations.

i disagree, crypto is a good idea ruined by bad people, general greed, low lifes that want to get rich with no work.

And those bad actors are doing what they're doing because cryptocoin is unregulated. It's worthless unless clearly defined and strictly controls rules and laws are in place. It either needs to die and go away or be just as regulated as normal currencies.