GPU Sales See Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2009 Recession: JPR

[Prima.Vera]

My local microcenter is completely sold out of every 4080 and 4090 sku and likely will be for the foreseeable future. They don't seem to be having any trouble selling the high end regardless of the value proposition.

Relax, don't fall for that. The same thing is happening here in Japan on all retail stores. Most of the cards are either sold out or with ridiculous callous prices like more than x3 time RTSP.
And the reason behind is not that they are selling them like hot cakes, but because either have a very low amount in stock (3-4 at tops), or most likely the shops don't have any in stock anyways and they only buy them if they have a request for them, usually with callous prices.

 

[XenForo]

Quartly drop??? Are you seriouse ???? Its the this type of media drops that drive everyone crazy - HEY NEWS FLASH, THERE ARE A WHOLE LINE OF NEW GPUS'S here launching early December and all the freaken nVidia 4000 searies are sold out as soon as they are listed??????????? DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

[Lovec1990]

As some said GPUs are expensive becouse of mining times they sold at that prices, but now mining is dead and gamers are unvilling to pay those prices.

Tbh i think by the looks of it AMD might have better time selling Rx 7000 series than Nvidia their RTX 4000 series.

 

[Fouquin]

AMD and Nvidia thought they could get away doing nothing but adding shaders and caches. Both of these require bigger dies. Now the bubble is gone, and both of them have nothing but big, expensive dies to sell.

AD102 die size decreased by 20mm from GA102, which itself was a decrease of 126mm from TU102. Navi 31 die size decreased by 214mm from Navi 21, and the MCDs that appear to make it bigger are being made on a more cost effective node to further decrease production costs. The numbers don't align with your hypothesis.

 

[Bwaze]

Right before the new architecture launches, or if the launch is staggered as with Ada and majority of cards aren't on the market yet, there will of course be a decrease in shipments and a lower revenue. That's normal.

Just wait for the next quarter - when the shipments and revenue fall further, because this isn't a normal launch, it's a post crypto crash one - just as the Turing was in 2018. And even worse, Turing cards had zero price / performance uplift, the RTX and DLSS alone were supposed to be the factor that would drive massive sales, but they didn't.

And now we have a price / performance regression, not just stagnation - $700 dollars will get you an Ada card slower than Ampere eqivalent, RTX 3080 - but it's OK, the reviewers will tell you that's normal, because you have to compare it to scalped crypto prices...

Right now, instead of looking on how to sell cards to gamers, Nvidia is probably looking which minable cryptocoin should they prop up with investing the real money into, since the whole crypto bubble is kind of revealing it's hollow inside.

 

[bug]

AD102 die size decreased by 20mm from GA102, which itself was a decrease of 126mm from TU102. Navi 31 die size decreased by 214mm from Navi 21, and the MCDs that appear to make it bigger are being made on a more cost effective node to further decrease production costs. The numbers don't align with your hypothesis.

AD102 is still over 600 sq mm. GP102 was under 500.

 

[GRaFkiyv]

NVidia and AMD just kill priсe VGA $225-$400 .
Don't even look for other theories.

 

[Bwaze]

AD102 is still over 600 sq mm. GP102 was under 500.

That`s why AD102 is only available in RTX 4090, which is rare and now goes for over $2000, even without the crypto scalpers.

RTX 4080, the other high end card for $1200 - $1600 uses AD103 graphics processor chip with a die area of 379 mm²

 

[ixi]

NVidia and AMD just kill priсe VGA $225-$400 .
Don't even look for other theories.

This is true. I guess, but I'm not sure. Currently thinking of getting 7900 xtx and then pass few generations as prices are going up, performance doesnt match price my opinion...

 

[Recus]

Right before the new architecture launches, or if the launch is staggered as with Ada and majority of cards aren't on the market yet, there will of course be a decrease in shipments and a lower revenue. That's normal.

Just wait for the next quarter - when the shipments and revenue fall further, because this isn't a normal launch, it's a post crypto crash one - just as the Turing was in 2018. And even worse, Turing cards had zero price / performance uplift, the RTX and DLSS alone were supposed to be the factor that would drive massive sales, but they didn't.

And now we have a price / performance regression, not just stagnation - $700 dollars will get you an Ada card slower than Ampere eqivalent, RTX 3080 - but it's OK, the reviewers will tell you that's normal, because you have to compare it to scalped crypto prices...

Right now, instead of looking on how to sell cards to gamers, Nvidia is probably looking which minable cryptocoin should they prop up with investing the real money into, since the whole crypto bubble is kind of revealing it's hollow inside.

• AMD: shipments decreased by 47.6%.
• NVIDIA: shipments decreased by 19.7%.

Yeah, sure, it's Nvidia's crypto sales crashed.

Maybe 84% of AMD buyers started to vote with their wallets?

 

[Bomby569]

you'd look at the prices and we wouldn't say so. Something is rotten in the gpu market

 

[Bwaze]

you'd look at the prices and we wouldn't say so. Something is rotten in the gpu market

It's the buyers, apparently.

"Speaking to Digital Trends, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was asked about the pricing of the graphics cards and said that high prices are here to stay. "Moore's Law is dead. The idea that the chip is going to go down in price is a story of the past," Huang said."

 

[Bomby569]

Retail Nvidia RTX 30-Series GPU Prices Are on the Rise​

Retail Nvidia RTX 30-Series GPU Prices Are on the Rise

AMD's RX 6000-series are still trending downward, though.

www.tomshardware.com

to infinite and beyond

 

[bug]

It's the buyers, apparently.

Buyers can't be wrong. If there are people willing to pay X for your product, than that's what it's worth.

"Speaking to Digital Trends, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was asked about the pricing of the graphics cards and said that high prices are here to stay. "Moore's Law is dead. The idea that the chip is going to go down in price is a story of the past," Huang said."

That may be, but as the number of units moved goes down, that his problem to fix.

 

[Bomby569]

meanwhile in the land of the whales

https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/z278rg

 

[TheDeeGee]

If they're sold out of 4080s then that really doesn't say much about the intelligence of people in your area. Tom from Moore's Law is Dead reported that the stores he has information on barely sold a third of their 4080s.

They're waiting for a 4080 Ti, cuz there is a HUGE cuda core gap.

 

[Vayra86]

When you lose out on your biggest buyers (miners) when crypto's Etherum changed to POS and coupled with the overpriced GPUs that have just come out, plus the fact it took forever for last gen GPU prices to get to MSRP (which some haven't) or below....

It doesn't take JPR to tell us something we all already know.

Still, its very nice to swing those graphs at people faces when they parrot the next YT nonsense about sold out GPUs and massive demand and omg they even buy scalped GPUs and OMG the world is burning because 'my' next GPU is priced beyond my wallet but I still must buy more to save more because Huang wants it.

meanwhile in the land of the whales

https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/z278rg

Fools and money, Darwin will fix this eventually. Like GPU pricing to land at satisfactory levels, all it requires is patience

People love to live in their own little reality these days, defined by the walls of echo chambers. Power to them. There are similarities in the real world. Putin has an echo chamber much like it, its why his army performs so well. History repeats, I try to enjoy the show, and I'll never buy a Lada.

 

[Diverge]

Time for PC component companies to start innovating, creating better, cheaper, and more efficient products. Voting with your wallet is the only voice you have as a consumer.

 

[Vayra86]

AD102 die size decreased by 20mm from GA102, which itself was a decrease of 126mm from TU102. Navi 31 die size decreased by 214mm from Navi 21, and the MCDs that appear to make it bigger are being made on a more cost effective node to further decrease production costs. The numbers don't align with your hypothesis.

These are still new nodes and new technologies though.

Its not entirely fair to compare the current price structure with the 2011~2016 28nm era. The first Titan was 561 sq mm and the fastest gaming GPU (980ti) on that node was a mere 600 sq mm (with a disabled SM, so about equal to Titan!) but still carried a major performance increase. That's exactly what progress means; more out of the same die space on the same node. That node was re-used for so many generations... Today we are shrinking every gen. So when the die in absolute size is even larger after 3 (?) shrinks with some intermediate steps even skipped, that's a major increase in cost. Especially in the current economy.

Margins are still filthy though

 

[DrCR]

It doesn't take JPR to tell us something we all already know.

JPR seems to almost exclusively exist to tell the business world what the tech world already knows.

 

[bug]

JPR seems to almost exclusively exist to tell the business world what the tech world already knows.

Well, gathering the data, sanitizing it and presenting it in an easy to understand manner does take some work...

 

[Bleomycin]

Relax, don't fall for that. The same thing is happening here in Japan on all retail stores. Most of the cards are either sold out or with ridiculous callous prices like more than x3 time RTSP.
And the reason behind is not that they are selling them like hot cakes, but because either have a very low amount in stock (3-4 at tops), or most likely the shops don't have any in stock anyways and they only buy them if they have a request for them, usually with callous prices.

Sorry but I have to disagree a little, at least in Southern California. Microcenter in Southern California can and will sell every possible 4080 and 4090 they can get their hands on. I agree stock is limited on the manufacturing side. They are not waiting around for customers to special order them (that's not even an option). There is so much money in this local market combined with such intense demand they will have 0 issues selling their allocation nearly instantly. It has been this way since before the crypto craze. To give an example, the median home sales price in Newport Beach, 10 minutes drive from Microcenter in Tustin, CA is $3.275 million dollars. In Irvine a stones throw away from where Microcenter is located the median home sales price is $1.225 million.

All I'm trying to illustrate is there is a lot of money flying around here and $1600 graphics cards aren't a heavy lift for many. The rich are getting richer at an incredible rate, many people cannot comprehend just how much money some people have, and many of those people live here. If people think graphics card prices are out of control they'd absolutely lose their minds if they looked at housing and cars. Even if the prices got cut in half a year from now, at these income levels the opportunity cost of losing out on the experience of ownership for that amount of time doesn't come close to penciling out.