Intel Stock Swandives 25% in Friday Trading Spooked by Quarterly Results

[Darmok N Jalad]

I’m actually wondering how long before we learn the dGPU business is done for. It’s been a huge money loser for years. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s part of the 10B cost reduction. While technically and asset, it’s not exactly worth much on the open market.

 

[R0H1T]

And that news likely also hasn't landed yet with their foundry customers.

Wait till they find out about the yields/performance of IFS & then sh!t gets truly real. They'll probably have north of $100 billion of capex in a few years & no way to repay/recoup that cost

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

And to think that Intel was laughing at AMD with their chiplet design calling them "glued together". AMD can make all kinds of chips starting from data center chips all the way down to consumer chips because of their chiplet design.

If only Intel would have done the same.

Well, they are kinda doing the same with their tile concept, but it’s not exactly been going all that well for them either. It’s probably a generation or two away from being viable and competitive. It’s actually ironic that AMD goes monolithic on mobile and MCM on desktop, and Intel just started doing the opposite.

 

[trparky]

They'll probably have north of $100 billion of capex in a few years & no way to repay/recoup that cost

Can you explain that with the help files on? I'm not a finances guy.

 

[R0H1T]

AMD does have chiplets for mobile/laptops as well with the 12/16 core parts.

 

[Wirko]

Intel Stock Swandives​

Nice choice of words, sir. I'd just add that it Gelsingerdives too.

 

[the54thvoid]

Edits made...

Can I ask that people don't wipe their dirty ideological feet on TPU's carpet. I appreciate some have their own views on things but the news OP doesn't need to be dragged into political hell.

 

[Darkholm]

IMHO, this was one of the greatest (s)hits released from Intel in the last 10 years You cannot improve 10nm and AMD is using proper 7nm for 2 years and you do what? Calling failed 10nm simply SEVEN. IF you cannot make it, name it
And let's not forget how they were applying cheap crap thermal paste beneath the lid on CPUs at post Sandy Bridge period, with explanation "we cannot solder the lid to die anymore because die is prone to cracks during the process". And than miracle hits on 9th Gen Coffee Lake (aka super green recycled 14nm +++++++++++++++++++) - they mastered soldering after so many years and dies are not prone to cracking anymore (of course, nothing to do with AMD soldering its lids on 12nm and 7nm dies which are even more prone to cracking)
I could go on and on about their PR crap by Ryan S. & Co. 2017-2024, but I gotta go to celebrate another week that we survived

 

[Daven]

It's like the old Tortoise and the Hare fable. The Hare (Intel) sat down and took a nap while the Tortoise (AMD) went past them.

I honestly think that a lot of Intel's problems really began when Apple dumped them as a chip supplier and went with their own chips, namely the M-series of chips. That was the beginning of the domino effect that we see now. Apple going with ARM showed the world that x86 was no longer the performance king.

Intel’s problems actually began when Apple released the iPhone. Few knew it at the time but this move will ultimately be the source of Intel’s downfall.

Making all those smartphone chips allowed TSMC to invest in improving fab nodes and build more fabs.

Other smartphone competitors invested in ARM IP.

Soon the entire Internet of Things (a term Intel coined) was 100% ARM and TSMC surpassed Intel fabs in less than a decade.

 

[trparky]

If Intel would have gone with modular chips like AMD did with their chiplet design, they wouldn't have the yield issues that they have. The bigger the chip, the more chances that you're going to have faulty dies at the end of the production.

This kind of scares me with how Apple's M-series of chips are so monolithic much like Intel chips. Will they run into the same problems Intel has? Or will TSMC be able to keep pulling a rabbit out of their hats.

Making all those smartphone chips allowed TSMC to invest in improving fab nodes and build more fabs.

Yep, all that sweet, sweet money from Apple and nVidia helped them skyrocket to the top.

 

[close]

company to suspend quarterly dividend payouts

Never too early to start saving for those golden parachutes.

 

[R0H1T]

Intel’s problems actually began when Apple released the iPhone. Few knew it at the time but this move will ultimately be the source of Intel’s downfall.

Making all those smartphone chips allowed TSMC to invest in improving fab nodes and build more fabs.

Other smartphone competitors invested in ARM IP.

Soon the entire Internet of Things (a term Intel coined) was 100% ARM and TSMC surpassed Intel fabs in less than a decade.

Apple made chips at Samsung till 20nm(16nm?) It wasn't until TSMC launched their first FinFET nodes did they (Apple) move completely over IIRC. Intel was wrong by not fabbing chips for Apple but the rise of TSMC is a separate event altogether, although not totally independent.

It was A10 ~

Apple A10 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Till A9 they still used Samsung ~

Apple A9 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[close]

IMHO, this was one of the greatest (s)hits released from Intel in the last 10 years You cannot improve 10nm and AMD is using proper 7nm for 2 years and you do what? Calling failed 10nm simply SEVEN. IF you cannot make it, name it
And let's not forget how they were applying cheap crap thermal paste beneath the lid on CPUs at post Sandy Bridge period, with explanation "we cannot solder the lid to die anymore because die is prone to cracks during the process". And than miracle hits on 9th Gen Coffee Lake (aka super green recycled 14nm +++++++++++++++++++) - they mastered soldering after so many years and dies are not prone to cracking anymore (of course, nothing to do with AMD soldering its lids on 12nm and 7nm dies which are even more prone to cracking)
I could go on and on about their PR crap by Ryan S. & Co. 2017-2024, but I gotta go to celebrate another week that we survived

You're probably referring to AT and I think the top "brown noser" there was definitely Ian Cutress. If praising Intel with all the superlatives for a a few performance increase year over year, almost all from higher clocks wasn't already clear which pocket his journalistic integrity was sitting in, or quickly writing an article every time someone at Intel fed him a BS line (like praising Intel for the exceptional 9900KS which will 100% be 5GHz on all cores all the time, only to discover days later he had been taken for a fool again), the whole 28-core 5GHz Xeon under a chiller story really brought his servility front and center.

After again publishing a stellar piece on Intel's demo of the all new 28-core Xeon running standard at 5GHz in what appeared to be a very normal setup (and patting his own back for being invited to see more than most journalists), it turned out it was under heavy OC, and with a 1HP chiller hidden under the table. So his reaction as a journalist with integrity confronting Intel's deceit was to call it an announcement that was not ideally communicated, and despite being taken for a fool still found it in his heart to kiss the boot and praise Intel because "it actually takes a good amount of engineering prowess and skill to put on a 28-core, 5.0 GHz demonstration".

As I said it elsewhere, I'm not too surprised he's been wallowing in semi-obscurity ever since being unceremoniously shown the door at AT. Those industry connections he polished boots for weren't worth that much after all. Too little too late for AT though, the guy single-handedly tanked their trustworthiness. Hard to come back from that even years later.

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

If Intel would have gone with modular chips like AMD did with their chiplet design, they wouldn't have the yield issues that they have. The bigger the chip, the more chances that you're going to have faulty dies at the end of the production.

This kind of scares me with how Apple's M-series of chips are so monolithic much like Intel chips. Will they run into the same problems Intel has? Or will TSMC be able to keep pulling a rabbit out of their hats.


Yep, all that sweet, sweet money from Apple and nVidia helped them skyrocket to the top.

Apple’s design is so different it’s hard to compare. Apple went really wide, they can leverage more specialized hardware, and, most importantly, they don’t push their designs to 200-300W ceilings. Intel probably isn’t having any problem getting to Apple-like frequencies. Their problem is they need too much power to achieve the clocks they need to achieve their performance targets. When Apple launched M4 in a passively cooled iPad, they couldn’t have thrown more shade on Intel, who simply can’t do anything remotely like that. Intel is stuck in a place where they can’t compete at either end. Maybe their tile-based stuff will make the difference in mobile, but they aren’t there yet. Last time Intel screwed up desktop, it was their mobile team that saved the day. I guess we’ll see if history repeats itself.

 

[efikkan]

So, TPU is tracking the stock market now?

Intel is down, so what? It's a buying opportunity.
Never invest in single stocks if you get your news from the tabloid press, you need to stay ahead of the market, not trail it. That's why solid (mutual) funds are the only good choice for non-professional traders. Pick 3-4 growth funds (with solid track records) in different markets, preferably managed funds. Then sit back and relax every time the media goes crazy. (Solid managed growth funds tend to accelerate out of turbulent times.)
And above all, do not sell your stock when the market is low, it's when people panic they lose money

Economy is being held up by toothpicks. Market is still up ~3% from the beginning of July so not that big of a deal from yesterday and today... just the daily swing seems worrisome. The average time to recession AFTER the LAST rate hikes from the fed historically is ~11 months... Last rate hike was ~July in 2023 so we're about due....

There are several worrisome aspects in the world economy as well as some good developments. But no one can predict when the market overall will crash or not, even though some claim to have certain formulas to predict this. The problem with those is that they either work after the fact, or they are not reliable at all. Take for instance celebrities like Michael Burry (portrayed in the move "The Big Short") who got rich when he got it right once (but has been wrong so many times since), is regularly in the media with bold predictions (and is probably doing the opposite himself).

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Intel have lots promising products coming up, there is no reason to believe they shouldn't recover.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Not just Intel but entire stock market has collapsed thanks to fears of recession.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

The entire market is down 2%.

Intel is down somewhere between 25% and 35%, depending on the minute today. The market thinks that last night's report --- ie: 15% job cuts. Loss of Q4 Dividend. Net Loss announcement (no profits) last quarter. Cutting back CapEx (aka: fewer investments), all bodes for a declining Intel.

 

[SSGBryan]

It's like the old Tortoise and the Hare fable. The Hare (Intel) sat down and took a nap while the Tortoise (AMD) went past them.

I honestly think that a lot of Intel's problems really began when Apple dumped them as a chip supplier and went with their own chips, namely the M-series of chips. That was the beginning of the domino effect that we see now. Apple going with ARM showed the world that x86 was no longer the performance king.

HAHAHAHAHAHAAAA.

As someone that was on Apple for almost the entire Intel timeframe, I can assure you that Apple was never critical to Intel. Apple very rarely updated their line up, hardwarewise. The 1st Apple Silicon product replaced an 8th gen Coffee Lake product that couldn't even hit it's base clock, because it was so thermally throttled. At the time, Intel was on it's 10th gen Core series of chips.

The MacPro, for instance went over 2,500 days between updates. The MacPro 7,1 was obsolete the day it was released, a $1,250 computer in a $4,250 case; and let's not forget those $400 wheels that couldn't even lock.

That PoS, was the reason I moved on from Apple.

 

[trparky]

Apple’s design is so different it’s hard to compare. Apple went really wide, they can leverage more specialized hardware, and, most importantly, they don’t push their designs to 200-300W ceilings. Intel probably isn’t having any problem getting to Apple-like frequencies. Their problem is they need too much power to achieve the clocks they need to achieve their performance targets. When Apple launched M4 in a passively cooled iPad, they couldn’t have thrown more shade on Intel, who simply can’t do anything remotely like that. Intel is stuck in a place where they can’t compete at either end. Maybe their tile-based stuff will make the difference in mobile, but they aren’t there yet. Last time Intel screwed up desktop, it was their mobile team that saved the day. I guess we’ll see if history repeats itself.

And I understand that, however... Apple chips are huge. When we talk about a processor in the PC world, we're talking about just the processor. Apple chips, however, aren't just processors; they're SoC's (System on a Chip). It's a CPU, a GPU, NPUs, USB/Thunderbolt controllers, memory controllers, and if that didn't make things complicated enough, there's RAM and not only that but it's shared RAM between the CPU and the GPU. They're not only big chips, they're also HUGE chips.

Hence my question... Will Apple run into the same kinds of yield issues that Intel is having now simply because of how huge and complicated their chips are?

 

[dragontamer5788]

It's like the old Tortoise and the Hare fable. The Hare (Intel) sat down and took a nap while the Tortoise (AMD) went past them.

I honestly think that a lot of Intel's problems really began when Apple dumped them as a chip supplier and went with their own chips, namely the M-series of chips. That was the beginning of the domino effect that we see now. Apple going with ARM showed the world that x86 was no longer the performance king.

ARM isn't doing well either.

 

[trparky]

That PoS, was the reason I moved on from Apple.

Meanwhile, people are considering a move to Apple because of all the bullshit that Microsoft is pulling these days with Windows. But that's another thread.

ARM isn't doing well either.

But the people who make ARM chips are. Apple is making tons of money and if the performance of the Qualcomm chips that are slated to power some of the new Windows laptops are any indication, Qualcomm is also going to be making tons of money as well.

 

[bonehead123]

Well, I just checked all of my inversertment accounts at lunch time, and they're all good, except for a few of the tech stocks that I own, which is about 1/6 of my total portfolio, and some are down but not significantly, but many of my other stocks are way up

And no, I will not name any of these stocks, as I refuse to get into a long-winded, chart-heavy, nonsensical good/bad/other debate or offer anyone any advice about what they should or should not buy !

 

[HTC]

And to think that Intel was laughing at AMD with their chiplet design calling them "glued together". AMD can make all kinds of chips starting from data center chips all the way down to consumer chips because of their chiplet design.

If only Intel would have done the same.

They ASSUMED it was a bad strategy ...

As they say ... "assumption is the mother of all fvckups" ...

 

[dragontamer5788]

But the people who make ARM chips are. Apple is making tons of money and if the performance of the Qualcomm chips that are slated to power some of the new Windows laptops are any indication, Qualcomm is also going to be making tons of money as well.

-----------

Even Apple has more mixed data than you might expect. Apple is projected to sell fewer iPhones.

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Here's the reality: Americans Consumer Demand is dropping across the board. That's fewer McDonalds Big Macs, fewer Starbucks Coffee, less Amazon Sales, fewer iPhones, less Intel, less everything.

The companies doing well, are those known for value. Costco and other wholesalers (cheaper + quality) are winning right now. This only happens when we as a country suddenly become worried about personal finances (which historically, only happens when people are running out of money / savings and have started taking on credit card debt). I'm not going to say we're necessarily in a decline or whatever, but the economic situation is fraught right now. The market is trying to see how bad things are in general.

Eventually the bears will be correct. The bears have been wrong for 10+ years (lol, "tech bubble" has been called since 2005 or earlier, but its never happened). But this time around, I'm seeing real economic data that gives me at least a pause.

Next-generation high-technology (like Intel, Qualcomm, Apple, etc. etc.) are luxuries. We all know we can live without this stuff. We buy them because they're cool and future looking and with the hopes of getting slight edges over competitors (or to play newer video games, etc. etc.). Such luxuries are the first thing people will cut out of their budgets. People will go one more year before upgrading their iPhone, people will hold onto their old laptops to save a bit of money this year, etc. etc. That's the new mindset of the market and economy.

Is that enough for a real decline? Am I a bear? Not really. But I'm holding my defensive / conservative portfolio for now. I'm not expecting a decline, but I'll be prepared for one if it comes into existence.

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

And I understand that, however... Apple chips are huge. When we talk about a processor in the PC world, we're talking about just the processor. Apple chips, however, aren't just processors; they're SoC's (System on a Chip). It's a CPU, a GPU, NPUs, USB/Thunderbolt controllers, memory controllers, and if that didn't make things complicated enough, there's RAM and not only that but it's shared RAM between the CPU and the GPU. They're not only big chips, they're also HUGE chips.

Hence my question... Will Apple run into the same kinds of yield issues that Intel is having now simply because of how huge and complicated their chips are?

They are huge, but just like GPU makers do, Apple harvests them to some extent. The base M chip has two GPU options, and the bigger M chip comes in different CPU and GPU core counts. I suspect they’ve accounted for the idea that large chips have yield issues, but maybe Apple also has the margins to make it work on lower yields. Keep in mind that the devices that Apple sells in the highest volumes (iPhone) have the smallest transistor counts. The A17 is 19B transistors, where the M3 Max is 92B. Apple will sell way more A17 devices than M3 Max devices, and the price disparity also makes up for that. Tim’s an accountant, so I’m sure he’s counted the beans. Apple also has had an advantage of not selling low-end stuff. If the margins aren’t there, then they aren’t selling a product in that segment.

However, consider the base iPad can take advantage of older A-chips, where production has long been worked out. Apple’s multi-tiered SOC lineup probably makes a world of difference, and they can do that. Intel has had a long history of obsoleting older chips with newer generations. Well, kinda, they “refreshed” desktop chips several times over, but at the expense of the previous generation. The PC industry depends on a new CPU model every year to sell their “refreshed” product, and it’s been that way as long as I can remember. Apple simply ignores that trend and makes various generations work for them in a sensible way.

 

[R0H1T]

Here's the reality: Americans Consumer Demand is dropping across the board. That's fewer McDonalds Big Macs, fewer Starbucks Coffee, less Amazon Sales, fewer iPhones, less Intel, less everything.

What probably isn't highlighted much, but should be, is this ~

Chinese Firm Launches Advanced Consumer Processor with 45 TOPS NPU and 12-Core CPU

Cixin Technology, a Chinese tech firm, has introduced the Cixin P1 (CP8180), the region's first AI-centric consumer processor. This new chip aims to disrupt domestic markets by capitalizing on the growing AI PC trend, featuring up to 45 TOPS. According to IT Home, Cixin needed 15 months of...

www.techpowerup.com

You might balk or ridicule them but once China transitions (completely?) to homegrown solutions you'll have probably the single biggest consumer market out of US' reach! The outlook should be even more grim than it actually is because they're making LCD panels, LED, OLED, NAND, RAM, chips, modems & they're also making them for you