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Jensen Huang Tells the Media That Moore's Law is Dead

THU31 said:
TSMC stated that the N5/N4 cost is about 2x higher than N7. And Samsung's 8N was cheaper than that (that was effectively a 10 nm class process).

As for your math, unfortunately it is not that simple. Process nodes have gotten so complicated, that the traditional nanometer metric does not apply anymore (with stuff like finfets, EUV, wider metal pitch and who knows what else, I do not even understand any of it). That is why they came up with those weird names.
TSMC's N5 has triple the density over Samsung's 8N. The N4 even slightly better than that. There is also a separate 4N process that NVIDIA is using here, and I do not know what the difference is compared to N4.

But AD102 has 2.7x more transistors with a slightly smaller die compared to GA102. The die size being so similar means that Ada chips are over 2x more expensive to make currently.
The cost increase is there, but their margins are another thing. As I said in another thread, maybe it is time to go back to making smaller and less power hungry dies.

Give up performance increases for one generation, instead utilize the efficiency of the new process and make the flagship model consume 250 W, sell it for $600-700 and call it a new generation of environment friendly technology. Would that not be a win in a world struggling for resources?
I think this is what AMD realized. I think they will let NVIDIA keep the pointless performance crown while they sell extremely efficient and affordable cards. I cannot wait to find out.
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Higher node costs are an important factor, but Nvidia's rapacity isn't solely due to that. AD103 is 295 mm^2, and in 2020, the similar N5 process was 82% more expensive than the N7 process used for Big Navi. The Navi 21 die is 520 mm^2. This means that TSMC would charge almost the same amount to manufacture AD103 and Navi 21. So the 4080 12 GB, even with good margins, could have been priced similarly to the 2020 MSRP of the 6800 XT.
 
THU31 said:
I never had a problem with niche top-end parts existing. You had cards with two GPUs, then you had Titans. But those cards were completely disconnected from the main line-up. The x80 was always considered the flagship and it was always within reach for enthusiasts.

Intel had the same thing. They used to have Extreme Edition CPUs for $1000 on mainstream sockets. Then they limited this to their HEDT platforms. And then AMD killed Intel's HEDT, as they could barely keep up in the mainstream segment.

But whatever you might want to say about Intel, they have kept their entry-level and mainstream prices on the same level for ages. Ever since Core 2 Duo, you could always buy a CPU based on the newest architecture under $200, even when AMD had nothing.
And you cannot say this about AMD. It took 1.5 years for Zen 3 to go under $200. And it looks like Zen 4 will be repeating this.
16 years of inflation and $200 still buys you a CPU that is suitable for high-framerate gaming and decent productivity.

But with Ada Lovelace, the entire initial line-up has to be considered niche and out of reach.
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yep that's why my next build will be also intel. I wish AMD well in gpu market but I won't be supporting them in cpu segment. Back in the day AMD was king of cpu budget but now when they are in the game they simply forget about low mid range users.
 

Jensen Huang Tells the Media​


2022-09-24 14.17.13 ff87cdc6c5ab.jpg
 
AD102 has 76 billion transistors...

Gordon Moore: am i a joke to you?
 
Lei said:
Lad, are you on Dopamine?

View attachment 262847

https://www.nvidia.com/en-gb/geforce/graphics-cards/40-series/rtx-4080/
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Those prices are likely VAT included for the GBP prices. The United States doesn't have a VAT and some states like mine (New Hampshire,) have no sales tax whatsoever. Companies in the US also don't tend to roll sales tax into the price of the product and calculate it at time of sale since it's not consistent across the US and our sales taxes tend to be far less than the VAT in the UK. With that said, take the 1199 USD. It might be 1098 GBP, but if you apply a 20% VAT to that, you're at 1317 GBP, which is a heck of a lot closer to 1269 GBP.
 
Buying new hardware like this here in Gougelandastan is as painful as being gang raped by 20 elephants whilst being mugged by a group of silverback gorillas ............ Now where did I put that 20lt bucket of lube and my credit card
 
Aquinus said:
Those prices are likely VAT included for the GBP prices. The United States doesn't have a VAT and some states like mine (New Hampshire,) have no sales tax whatsoever. Companies in the US also don't tend to roll sales tax into the price of the product and calculate it at time of sale since it's not consistent across the US and our sales taxes tend to be far less than the VAT in the UK. With that said, take the 1199 USD. It might be 1098 GBP, but if you apply a 20% VAT to that, you're at 1317 GBP, which is a heck of a lot closer to 1269 GBP.
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Basically Jensen came and announced nothing below 1000 bucks.
And on Nvidia website 4090 page there's a video showing cyberpunk running 22fps with rt on and dlss off

We have 76 billion transistors running 450 watts at 1600$ (2000$) giving us 22 frames. Ok case closed, Moore's law is dead as dodo.
 
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THU31 said:
I never had a problem with niche top-end parts existing. You had cards with two GPUs, then you had Titans. But those cards were completely disconnected from the main line-up. The x80 was always considered the flagship and it was always within reach for enthusiasts.

Intel had the same thing. They used to have Extreme Edition CPUs for $1000 on mainstream sockets. Then they limited this to their HEDT platforms. And then AMD killed Intel's HEDT, as they could barely keep up in the mainstream segment.

But whatever you might want to say about Intel, they have kept their entry-level and mainstream prices on the same level for ages. Ever since Core 2 Duo, you could always buy a CPU based on the newest architecture under $200, even when AMD had nothing.
And you cannot say this about AMD. It took 1.5 years for Zen 3 to go under $200. And it looks like Zen 4 will be repeating this.
16 years of inflation and $200 still buys you a CPU that is suitable for high-framerate gaming and decent productivity.

But with Ada Lovelace, the entire initial line-up has to be considered niche and out of reach.
Click to expand...

There's a reality most don't want to face. PC gaming is moving into an ultra high end niche if you want your own hardware. The rest will be on SOCs and APUs and paying for cloud services. Say 100 a month for a 1080p, 60fps mid details service, go up to 300 for a 4k 10hz high details. That is the future. Everyone on the selling side keeps saying "we're going cloud" and everyone on the buying side keeps saying it won't happen. We saw the same shit with steam. This is capitalism, the seller is always right and always wins. The consumer is just a cow to be milked and has no rights. Free market baby!
 
SOAREVERSOR said:
There's a reality most don't want to face. PC gaming is moving into an ultra high end niche if you want your own hardware. The rest will be on SOCs and APUs and paying for cloud services. Say 100 a month for a 1080p, 60fps mid details service, go up to 300 for a 4k 10hz high details. That is the future. Everyone on the selling side keeps saying "we're going cloud" and everyone on the buying side keeps saying it won't happen. We saw the same shit with steam. This is capitalism, the seller is always right and always wins. The consumer is just a cow to be milked and has no rights. Free market baby!
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The seller is only right if people buy. With Steam, you're right. We bought into it, now we have it. With high-end graphics cards, maybe. We'll see how popular the GeForce 4000-series will be. But with cloud gaming? Nah... nobody buys into that crap.
 
SOAREVERSOR said:
There's a reality most don't want to face. PC gaming is moving into an ultra high end niche if you want your own hardware. The rest will be on SOCs and APUs and paying for cloud services. Say 100 a month for a 1080p, 60fps mid details service, go up to 300 for a 4k 10hz high details. That is the future. Everyone on the selling side keeps saying "we're going cloud" and everyone on the buying side keeps saying it won't happen. We saw the same shit with steam. This is capitalism, the seller is always right and always wins. The consumer is just a cow to be milked and has no rights. Free market baby!
Click to expand...

Dreams are for free! :D :D 100 bucks A MONTH? for that crap? No, thanks..
 
Cloud gaming is kind of a dream for me. But it has been for a long time and not much has changed. The biggest advantage from my perspective - no extra heat. I could play on a 12900K with a 4090 and I would chill with my device just decoding a video stream. No hassling with drivers or other issues either.

That is definitely a convenient pick up and play experience. GeForce Now is really not bad. The latency is sometimes comparable to playing locally on a console. I really think we will get there one day. And with the perspective of paying thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades, I could be convinced.
 
THU31 said:
Cloud gaming is kind of a dream for me. But it has been for a long time and not much has changed. The biggest advantage from my perspective - no extra heat. I could play on a 12900K with a 4090 and I would chill with my device just decoding a video stream. No hassling with drivers or other issues either.

That is definitely a convenient pick up and play experience. GeForce Now is really not bad. The latency is sometimes comparable to playing locally on a console. I really think we will get there one day. And with the perspective of paying thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades, I could be convinced.
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Thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades? NO, thank you. My budget is 6 or 7 hundreds max..
 
Moore's law is dead, because nGreedia killed it.
 
ARF said:
Thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades? NO, thank you. My budget is 6 or 7 hundreds max..
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You can get a used 3090 that is cheaper and faster than 4080-12
Or get 3080ti with your budget.
 
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THU31 said:
Cloud gaming is kind of a dream for me. But it has been for a long time and not much has changed. The biggest advantage from my perspective - no extra heat. I could play on a 12900K with a 4090 and I would chill with my device just decoding a video stream. No hassling with drivers or other issues either.

That is definitely a convenient pick up and play experience. GeForce Now is really not bad. The latency is sometimes comparable to playing locally on a console. I really think we will get there one day. And with the perspective of paying thousands of dollars for GPU upgrades, I could be convinced.
Click to expand...

I'd never be able to get onboard with that - being dependent upon a corporation to provide the processing power plus delivering it over the net...no thanks. Like with television streaming, you really make yourself vulnerable to letting other people / companies just take your stuff away for whatever reason.

Even if it costs more money, I'd pay it to maintain my own hardware (remember there's always ebay with used gear which I have taken advantage of many times and will continue to do as I will not pay Jensen's ridiculous prices - I haven't bought a 'new' NVidia video card since early 2017). Heck, I built my own onsite Plex server to stream media so that I'm not in any way dependent on streaming services in the event they decide to remove or modify content that I don't authorize.

Sometimes maintaining your freedom is a little more work, but it's absolutely worth it being able to give streaming services the middle finger when they do something that pisses you off. If you're here on TPU, chances are you're smart enough to build your own rigs and the like. I have faith in you. :)
 
Everyone here puting hopes in AMD... keep expectations low, boys.
Anyway, NVIDIA will continue doing the hell they want cuz consumers (us) keep paying them for that.
 
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