Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Regeneration]

Why is it so hard for people to stay home?

Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.

If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.

 

[Vayra86]

Why is it so hard for people to stay home?

Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.

If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.

Its clear you don't have kids

 

[sepheronx]

Why is it so hard for people to stay home?

Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.

If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.

Some of us like myself still have to go to work. Without people like myself and my coworker who works in a small office, a lot of the logistics for various stores will not operate and thus people cannot obtain food from the stores if they lack food and other necessities. And there are a ton of people like this.

As for those who are still traveling (there was a couple here in Canada that went to Peru on vacation on March 11 when the outbreak was already hitting hard), they are just hurting themselves and others due to their gluttony.

Its clear you don't have kids

We take our kids for a quick walk around the neighborhood as barely anyone is outside anyway. We just tell them not to touch anything.

 

[Space Lynx]

Folding@home reaches 470 petaflops in computing power primarily simulating COVID-19 proteins

A week and a half ago I wrote a little piece about the Folding@Home project. I am happy to report that many gurus have joined the team and that we're moving 24 Million points per day at the moment, h...

www.guru3d.com

470 petaflops working on covid-19 protein folding, amazing stuff!

 

[biffzinker]

Folding@home reaches 470 petaflops in computing power primarily simulating COVID-19 proteins

A week and a half ago I wrote a little piece about the Folding@Home project. I am happy to report that many gurus have joined the team and that we're moving 24 Million points per day at the moment, h...

www.guru3d.com

470 petaflops working on covid-19 protein folding, amazing stuff!

Folding@home | Statistics

Folding@home Statistics

stats.foldingathome.org

Edit: There was this back on the 16th I missed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239629911310192640

 

[1freedude]

If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.

You say get, how do you get if you stay home?

I found out I'm essential, so I still have a job. And kids. And a wife that is not essential, except to our family.

Keeping the kids occupied is the really tough part. During the week, I am dad...because I work weekends. In fact, just got home from work. Besides the drunks getting off the roads, and the schools closed, it seems nothing really has changed here.

 

[HTC]

Its an economical gamble, at least in part. You can't go around testing the entire population continuously.

If you really think you are going to get your test done on request you've got another thing coming. Especially because symptoms are similar to a common cold. Not happening. Imagine the cost of it. We don't want to waste that much time and effort testing the vast majority of negatives. The net effect is also non existant. The moment you walk out the doctor's door you could have been infected by someone else.

That is why I am also saying these lockdowns are not going to be over anytime soon. The most effective way to let this die out is to work from both ends; minimize risk for the vast majority with mild or 'unnoticed' status (Or may not have anything at all), trace the big infection sources and treat the severe cases. This allows us to prolong the status quo and not push healthcare systems over the edge, until we have a long term solution / vaccine. Or lacking a vaccine, we might need to prolong reduced social life for several years to build herd immunity, slowly allowing larger parts of the populace to get back to normal life. The latter is still not preferable though. All things considered its clear that we are going to have to accept this virus exists in our lives and we need to take measures to combat it long term.

It's quite possible the cost of NOT DOING IT will be far FAR greater.

Why do you think it's so hard to stop this virus from spreading? Because the majority of those that spread it, not being symptomatic, don't realize they're infected to begin with. That's why i believe that testing ONLY those with symptoms is a flawed approach. Will the cost of generalizing testing be HUGE? It will be ASTRONOMICAL but the cost of not doing it could, and very likely WILL, be much higher.

 

[1freedude]

It's quite possible the cost of NOT DOING IT will be far FAR greater.

Why do you think it's so hard to stop this virus from spreading? Because the majority of those that spread it, not being symptomatic, don't realize they're infected to begin with. That's why i believe that testing ONLY those with symptoms is a flawed approach. Will the cost of generalizing testing be HUGE? It will be ASTRONOMICAL but the cost of not doing it could, and very likely WILL, be much higher.

We can't afford astronomical. Not for this. In OR, as of 1100 hrs yesterday, they tested almost 3k people that were negative. Why where they tested? Do the symptoms they have, represent a different virus that is harming people? Clearly, yes. Is that/those virus causing a hospital stay? Not sure, but does it matter? No, someone in need of a test because of an illness that tests negative for motherfucking COVID-19 is still in need. From what I know, the criteria for getting tested is quite high, and other tests have to come back negative, in order to order the corona test. Those negative test subjects are still in a mess, no matter if + or -

 

[the54thvoid]

There is only one statistic that can be regarded as reliable (assuming govt. transparency) and that is the number of deaths. The other thing to consider, mathematically, is that the mortality rate is likely even across continents. Therefore, with an assumed rate of 1-2%, multiply deaths by 100 to get a very rough number of infected.

 

[Vayra86]

It's quite possible the cost of NOT DOING IT will be far FAR greater.

Why do you think it's so hard to stop this virus from spreading? Because the majority of those that spread it, not being symptomatic, don't realize they're infected to begin with. That's why i believe that testing ONLY those with symptoms is a flawed approach. Will the cost of generalizing testing be HUGE? It will be ASTRONOMICAL but the cost of not doing it could, and very likely WILL, be much higher.

Every approach is flawed and its a choice of evils. That was the point. There is a tipping point at which we are going to accept a percentage of deaths that are going to be extremely costly to avoid otherwise. It sounds harsh, and that's what it is. Such is life. This is what survival of the fittest looks like, in a modern society. Its a matter of cost.

Its the same thing as 'who do you send to an IC'. There are more considerations. A lot of elderly people die and never reach ICs because hospitalizing them would already push them over the edge or the life they'd have left after recovery is barely even existant. That is the sort of choices and the scale upon which decisions are taken. I know that in Italy and Spain the healthcare system keeps treating even if the life expectancy is minimal at best. We don't do that here in NL. Different approach and its likely the southern EU nations will be forced into much more painful choices for not doing the same. Its part of the reason those healthcare systems went straight into overdrive and basically just cracked. Its already happening that relatives can't even visit their dying loved ones. Another side effect is that you get a flood of patients you won't ever stop and the net output of your healthcare and IC quality goes down rapidly.

Some number from over here: over 80% of the Corona patients never see an IC. That is, 'severe, should hospitalize' patients. They already have such a condition that an IC treatment would not benefit them overall. We conclude it is better to keep those beds available for younger or healthier people, always in consultation with family/relatives and patient. Fact based... Harsh, but fact based.

But let's share something optimistic, too

COVID-19 HPC Consortium

The COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium is a private-public effort to bring free compute time and resources on their world-class machines.

covid19-hpc.mybluemix.net

@AleksandarK worth a news item perhaps? I would think so

 

[1freedude]

54thvoid,
I agree. But, was the decedent tested before or after death? Will that skew the numbers? Ehh, let's not go there, here.

I am an accident/incident investigator, so these questions have to come up.

Edit:
I differ a bit......the demographics don't support your 100 multiple. I had that discussion with a coworker tonight. We set a delineation of 55 years old. Starting at 25, ending at 85. Guess which 30 year group had more deaths?

But, which group represents the bigger population? I don't know

 

[ratirt]

I still go to work. So far I didn't get infected. I take all the precautions but you never know.
Anyway the covid-19 is not like flu. It is totally different and denying it saying it is not extremely dangerous (doctor admit it is extremely dangerous) is foolish. Besides, if you get the covid-19 you can get sick again and your lungs look like a used up strainer. So I think getting it spreading freely because it's just the way it is is simply put stupid and people thinking that do not care and have no responsibility whatsoever. Good luck with that.

 

[Dinnercore]

Why is it so hard for people to stay home?

Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.

If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.

Because I get forced to work? Because no business or boss is taking this serious? I could in theory do all my work from home, but my company does not allow that so I have to go there. Many of us in the office have colds and all the symptoms but hey its germany you gotta wörk wörk wörk....

All the numbers from my country are faked anyway, don´t believe the bullshit that we have some miracle healthcare that no one dies. I have someone in my family who just died due to an infection and they refused to test her for the virus. Actually no one in my whole area is allowed to be tested, you call them and tell them you had contact to a confirmed case and they tell you off. Absolut madness right now.

 

[Vayra86]

We take our kids for a quick walk around the neighborhood as barely anyone is outside anyway. We just tell them not to touch anything.

Yep... walks, a walk in the park. I'm quite lucky because I live in a rural area and its not too crowded here. Lots of opportunities to go outdoors and still keep healthy distance from everyone. But in the cities... last saturday in The Hague apparently they still had markets open... And those were overcrowded, as in, you're literally pushing through people, as is usual for those places.

But at some point you're out of walks, too Staying inside is a big big challenge for all of us, or at least, most of us. I'm quite fine living like a hermit... my direct relatives are not. So in a sense, I'm also not entirely happy with it... funny how that works. Its also 'funny'... or interesting; to see and experience my own and other people's struggle having to adjust to this new temporary reality. It affects so many things in so many little ways.

Because I get forced to work? Because no business or boss is taking this serious? I could in theory do all my work from home, but my company does not allow that so I have to go there. Many of us in the office have colds and all the symptoms but hey its germany you gotta wörk wörk wörk....

All the numbers from my country are faked anyway, don´t believe the bullshit that we have some miracle healthcare that no one dies. I have someone in my family who just died due to an infection and they refused to test her for the virus. Actually no one in my whole area is allowed to be tested, you call them and tell them you had contact to a confirmed case and they tell you off. Absolut madness right now.

Make your own choices man, don't be a fool and follow the masses in that sense. Fact based governance says you minimize contact. If you're not in a vital line of work, just stay at home and give them a polite middle finger. It will blow over and you won't get fired. And if you do, just watch those legal tables turn in your favor, I have zero doubt about that. Any employer that does not actively minimize risk right now, is directly trespassing into ethical territory, there is a social obligation now to adhere.

Trust me. Do it. I was meaning to say the same to @rtwjunkie as well and his situation is arguably much worse, as his wife has a higher risk of complications. This is the time you need to start using common sense and think for yourself. You only have one opportunity: before you've also caught it. And mind: you never truly know if you did.

 

[HTC]

Every approach is flawed and its a choice of evils. That was the point. There is a tipping point at which we are going to accept a percentage of deaths that are going to be extremely costly to avoid otherwise. It sounds harsh, and that's what it is. Such is life.

But let's share something optimistic, too

COVID-19 HPC Consortium

The COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium is a private-public effort to bring free compute time and resources on their world-class machines.

covid19-hpc.mybluemix.net

@AleksandarK worth a news item perhaps? I would think so

I wasn't talking about deaths, even though that's the ultimate price.

The way i see it:

- test EVERYONE for temperature, and i mean EVERYONE, as that's much easier: do it MULTIPLE TIMES A DAY
- test those found to have an elevated temperature for COVID-19: obviously, not everyone with a high temperature will have COVID-19 but, and as i've read, almost all COVID-19 infected patients DO have a fever even if mild, so it's a good place to start triaging
- quarantine those that have higher temperature immediately until COVID-19 result is know, as that takes longer to ascertain
- release those not infected and leave in quarantine the rest or move them to whatever place designated for it

To do it like this will require a LOT MORE COVID-19 TESTING than what is being done right now and it WILL BE PRICEY.

As for the cost of not doing it this way:

- lockdowns
- economical disruptions due to the lockdowns
- associated costs of all of the above

The cost of this is way WAY higher than the testing, as i described it.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Well: it appears there's been some cross communication because the reported new case numbers for USA just dropped by over 4000. Better edit, AGAIN, my previous post.

This is why I keep defaulting to the Johns Hopkins site in the OP. They seem to be going out of their way to make sure information is actually verified before posting the numbers.

 

[EarthDog]

Armchair pandemic Dr's...everyone here has the answer! Lol.

Please, people, read those posts for the entertainment factor and source facts from reputable locations and people.

 

[Vayra86]

Armchair pandemic Dr's...everyone here has the answer! Lol.

Please, people, read those posts for the entertainment factor and source facts from reputable locations and people.

All of the facts I"ve presented here are directly from our national health institutes and directly related health specialists, for one.

If the source is questionable I won't place it in this topic.

 

[lexluthermiester]

There is only one statistic that can be regarded as reliable (assuming govt. transparency) and that is the number of deaths. The other thing to consider, mathematically, is that the mortality rate is likely even across continents. Therefore, with an assumed rate of 1-2%, multiply deaths by 100 to get a very rough number of infected.

I was about to say most of this. Well stated.

 

[EarthDog]

I'm not pointing anyone out specifically... but I've seen some poor advice being dolled out in the several threads covering it.

Be careful for those using this and other threads as sources of info.


Edit:

The other thing to consider, mathematically, is that the mortality rate is likely even across continents. Therefore, with an assumed rate of 1-2%, multiply deaths by 100 to get a very rough number of infected

How can that be true, actually? Mortality rate seems to have a lot to do with how many in a given area have it and if the critical cases overwhelm the hospitals (among other variables). Many maps show this information and with that, we can see the death rates vary signficantly/several %.

 

[HTC]

There is only one statistic that can be regarded as reliable (assuming govt. transparency) and that is the number of deaths. The other thing to consider, mathematically, is that the mortality rate is likely even across continents. Therefore, with an assumed rate of 1-2%, multiply deaths by 100 to get a very rough number of infected.

There's a problem with that: the countries where hospitals are being heavily strained, have a WAY HIGHER fatality rate than they would have if not strained so, that way wont work for those countries:

- China, early on
- Italy, currently
- Spain during this week, or so Spanish authorities say

There may be others i'm not aware of.

 

[1freedude]

@EarthDog @HTC
See my edit a few posts ago. You guys bring up good points, but the demographics also skew the percentages.

 

[EarthDog]

@EarthDog @HTC
See my edit a few posts ago. You guys bring up good points, but the demographics also skew the percentages.

Yes. Theres more to it than just napkin math... I think that is our point.

 

[Frick]

Why is it so hard for people to stay home?

Play video games, watch Netflix, troll on forums.

If you need some physical activity, get exercise bike / treadmill, and weights.

I'm not ill and I can't do my job from home.

 

[1freedude]

I'm not ill and I can't do my job from home.

But, is your position vital (essential) to the well being of your nation. You don't have to answer.
If not, then do as Vayra86 says...a polite middle finger.