Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[EarthDog]

While I agree to some extent, the UK has been ramping up it's testing since April/May. Numbers still falling. So, increassed testing does not infer increase of cases. It can show a massive fall in prevalence.

I would LOVE to see a chart like that where it shows the number of new cases and how many tests that day along with the % of positive. THAT, IMO, is quite informative.

 

[dragontamer5788]

I would LOVE to see a chart like that where it shows the number of new cases and how many tests that day along with the % of positive. THAT, IMO, is quite informative.

I'm a fan of Maryland's format. Speaking of which, here's today's update.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 40415 confirmed infected --- 311 more
- 26382 recovered --- 299 more
- 1549 fatalities --- 6 more
- 371024 suspected cases --- 2057 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated
- 1524 waiting for test results --- 62 less
- 31113 under watch from authorities --- 178 more
- 436 hospitalized --- 7 more
- 67 in ICU --- 6 less

Single digit daily death toll for the 20th consecutive day.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Portugal's numbers are really starting to look good.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers are really starting to look good.

Actually, no: we've increased restrictions in 19 parishes precisely because it isn't looking good.

The vast majority of our country's new daily numbers are from Lisbon and Tejo River Valley, to the point that there's 3 hospitals already with over 80% capacity filled, with the rest of the region's hospitals being over 70% (not referring to ICUs). Meanwhile, the rest of the country's regions combined have less the 100 new daily cases.

This is better showcased with a couple of pics, from May 25th and June 25th respectively (red = infected cases and black = fatalities):

As can be seen, while the rest of the country's regions "gained" less than 400 new cases in a month's time (except northern region, that "gained" 673), Lisbon and Tejo River Valley "gained" 8200 new cases, and that's why we're increasing the restrictions in the most affected parishes, to try and improve our situation.

EDIT

Turns out it's 19 parishes and not 21, as i had stated: it were 21 @ 1st but there was a change and i was unaware of it.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Actually, no: we've increased restrictions in 21 parishes precisely because it isn't looking good.

To me those numbers, over all, look like they're making solid improvement. Better than we're getting stateside anyway..

 

[HTC]

To me those numbers, over all, look like they're making solid improvement. Better than we're getting stateside anyway..

I'd agree if the cases were more "evenly distributed" but, though we're not bad, we aren't good either.

If we were to scale that up to USA's population, that 8200 increase in a month would be the equivalent of 262400 cases in USA, or nearly 8500 cases per day: that's no small number.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Where U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise

The states where the outbreak is growing fastest

graphics.reuters.com

California, Texas, Arizona, and Florida cases are soaring.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Where U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise

The states where the outbreak is growing fastest

graphics.reuters.com

California, Texas, Arizona, and Florida cases are soaring.

Cases are soaring. Hospitalizations are a bit weird though. Texas is without a doubt in a bad situation (cases + hospitalizations are up). California and Florida are more open to interpretation.

The big question is if hospitalizations (and deaths) will follow up. There's also some issues with Florida's hospitalization statistics, since they recently changed the definition of hospitalizations.

 

[the54thvoid]

You're easily looking at two weeks for a concomitant rise in fatalities. But there is better understanding of treatment for severe cases so what was fatal in March, may now be treatable.

 

[dragontamer5788]

You're easily looking at two weeks for a concomitant rise in fatalities.

I agree. But "number of cases" is a statistic I assign pretty low trust over. At least under our current conditions / testing regime. We've talked about it before, so I won't repeat myself.

But there is better understanding of treatment for severe cases so what was fatal in March, may now be treatable.

That's a factoid I didn't think much about. You're right though, there was that new steroid that the British are using to save over 30% of cases now, or something like that. The mortality rate with proper treatment would naturally be much lower, now that we've researched treatments for a few months.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated (Friday):



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 40866 confirmed infected --- 451 more
- 26633 recovered --- 251 more
- 1555 fatalities --- 6 more
- 373293 suspected cases --- 2269 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated ... again
- 1561 waiting for test results --- 37 more
- 31246 under watch from authorities --- 133 more
- 457 hospitalized --- 21 more
- 67 in ICU --- no change

Single digit daily death toll for the 21st consecutive day.

There's been an increase in 91 hospitalizations since we reached the lowest point (June 8th), with 366: the big problem is that most of the hospitalizations are in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region and it's hospitals are nearing full capacity.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Single digit daily death toll for the 21st consecutive day.

This is what I was talking about earlier. To me, this is solid improvement.

 

[HTC]

This is what I was talking about earlier. To me, this is solid improvement.

You seem to forget the lag that comes with confirmed infected -> hospitalization -> ICU -> death: it varies but it can be well over a month between the "1st stage" and the "4th stage".

It's why we are experiencing a rise in hospitalizations now, though mostly localized (24.86% more, 457 today VS 366 @ the lowest point after the peak). Then there will be an increase in ICU number, which is what comes next ... and then the death toll increases in a more pronounced fashion.

Hopefully, we can take advantage of the steroid UK discovered and can curb our fatalities number down with it.

 

[lexluthermiester]

You seem to forget the lag that comes with confirmed infected -> hospitalization -> ICU -> death: it varies but it can be well over a month between the "1st stage" and the "4th stage".

While that's true, from what I've read, starting from the time a patient goes into the ICU to the time of death is often less than to weeks. This is of course dependent on where you read your data from.

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

Recovery is generally about 2 weeks from ICU, but mortality is faster. The fact that fewer people are dying is a good sign that doctors are learning fast how to deal with this and more people recover.

 

[HTC]

While that's true, from what I've read, starting from the time a patient goes into the ICU to the time of death is often less than to weeks. This is of course dependent on where you read your data from.

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

Recovery is generally about 2 weeks from ICU, but mortality is faster. The fact that fewer people are dying is a good sign that doctors are learning fast how to deal with this and more people recover.

You may have missed the part where i was stating:

It's why we are experiencing a rise in hospitalizations now, though mostly localized

Though ICU number have also climbed, they haven't done so by as much as hospitalized but i'll expect them to start climbing "more consistently" in about a week or so. After a while the deaths will too, unless that steroid is used or some other drug that mitigates C-19's in more serious cases (if it's discovered between now and then).

And this isn't counting the last 10 to 15 days that have been having roughly 300 new cases per day in the region i have been mentioning. Since roughly 10% of those will eventually require hospitalization, that's roughly 300 to 450 people right there, which will push the region's hospitals to the verge of collapse and @ least require some sort of "campaign hospitals" or transferring patients to other non-local hospitals, in order to help cope with the rush of people.

If our situation were more "generalized" this wouldn't be bad, but the vast majority of new cases (75% to 90% and sometimes more) are in that region, and that's why this is a serious problem.

EDIT --- post merged ...

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 41189 confirmed infected --- 323 more
- 26864 recovered --- 231 more
- 1561 fatalities --- 6 more
- 375490 suspected cases --- 2197 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... still
- 1627 waiting for test results --- 66 more
- 31255 under watch from authorities --- 9 more
- 442 hospitalized --- 15 less
- 70 in ICU --- 3 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 22nd consecutive day.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 41646 confirmed infected --- 457 more
- 27066 recovered --- 202 more
- 1564 fatalities --- 3 more
- 376815 suspected cases --- 1325 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... still ... again
- 1511 waiting for test results --- 116 less
- 31299 under watch from authorities --- 44 more
- 458 hospitalized --- 16 more
- 75 in ICU --- 5 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 23rd consecutive day.

That chart i made a while back with 13 countries worth of infected cases data: i added 2 more countries (India and Mexico) and updated the data to yesterday (click for full picture):



Of those in the chart, India is the one that has their cases doubling the fastest but Brazil is close behind, along with Mexico. However, and because Brazil has WAY more cases than either of them, it's Brazil who's worse of all right now.

(Dis)honorable mention to USA because they're having their cases spike up to a worrisome degree and, though they are doubling their cases @ a much slower pace than Brazil, they still have almost twice the number of cases of Brazil.

 

[dragontamer5788]

(Dis)honorable mention to USA because they're having their cases spike up to a worrisome degree and, though they are doubling their cases @ a much slower pace than Brazil, they still have almost twice the number of cases of Brazil.

Despite the rise, a number of people I know still don't really believe in the virus and refuse to take basic precautions (masks) over it.

Texas has only banned meetings of 100+ people this past week. Original CDC guidelines were to ban meetings of 50+, and were eventually lowered to meetings of 10+. So Texas is too little, too late with its reaction. In a few days, they'll surely come around and realize that their 100+ meeting ban isn't nearly strict enough.

I mean... at least mayors of Texas are allowed to enforce masks now. It was illegal a few weeks ago to make a city-level mask ban in Texas. But they're moving way too slow about this. Even after Maryland enacted severe and swift countermeasures (Meetings of size 10+ were banned, masks everywhere, etc. etc.) it took us nearly a month before our numbers declined.

 

[theFOoL]

Alabama

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 41912 confirmed infected --- 266 more
- 27205 recovered --- 139 more
- 1568 fatalities --- 4 more
- 378073 suspected cases --- 1888 more
- 1102066 tests taken --- not updated ... again ... still ... again ... again
- 1498 waiting for test results --- 13 less
- 31310 under watch from authorities --- 11 more
- 489 hospitalized --- 31 more
- 71 in ICU --- 4 less

Single digit daily death toll for the 24th consecutive day. Sizable spike in hospitalized number, though

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 42141 confirmed infected --- 229 more
- 27505 recovered --- 300 more
- 1576 fatalities --- 8 more
- 380476 suspected cases --- 2403 more
- 1178653 tests taken --- 76587 more
- 1454 waiting for test results --- 44 less
- 31414 under watch from authorities --- 104 more
- 491 hospitalized --- 2 more
- 73 in ICU --- 2 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 25th consecutive day but "cutting it close: the last time the daily death toll was this much or higher was on June 6th, with nine deaths.

Tests taken was finally updated, but not completely: the 76587 more tests are from 8 days but the previous update was 10 days ago, according to the tests chart @ the official Portuguese Health Site - DGS.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Hmmmm... Hospitalization counts went up by +1 yesterday, and +5 today. The critical dates in Maryland were June 12th, the "phase 2 reopening". And June 19th, a further reopening extended to gyms, malls, etc. etc.

The rule of thumb is that ~2 days can be outliers. Day 3 makes a trend however. With that being said, %Positive remains low, and number of cases remain low as well.

---------

Despite the plateauing of hospitalizations, I'm optimistic about this, because %Positive has continued to decline. A degree of random variation is to be expected. It'd be far more worrying if all the numbers were getting worse. But for now, it could still just be a temporary blip.

 

[Tatty_Two]

UK update as at 30th June

 

[dragontamer5788]

Hmmm... we now have a trend of +1, +5, and now +9 hospitalizations over the past 3 days.

%Positive continues to decline. I wonder if an especially at-risk group (maybe another retirement community?) got hit with a wave of infections?

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 42454 confirmed infected --- 313 more
- 27798 recovered --- 293 more
- 1579 fatalities --- 8 more
- 382818 suspected cases --- 2342 more
- 1190384 tests taken --- 11731 more
- 1450 waiting for test results --- 4 less
- 31389 under watch from authorities --- 25 less
- 503 hospitalized --- 12 more
- 79 in ICU --- 6 more

Single digit daily death toll for the 26th consecutive day but hospitalized and ICU continue their upwards trend