Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[harm9963]

Well, if they go to the hospital, there is a chance that ICE will pick them up and deport them. Better to stay sick at home than be separated from your family...

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...exas-hispanic-data-harris-county-15411614.php

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50410 confirmed infected --- 111 more
- 35626 recovered --- 251 more
- 1722 fatalities --- 3 more
- 435789 suspected cases --- 2328 more
- 1561919 tests taken --- 33319 more - last updated July 26th
- 1596 waiting for test results --- 199 more
- 35355 under watch from authorities --- 215 more
- 402 hospitalized --- 12 less
- 41 in ICU --- 4 less

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 20 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th. Though with some "hiccups", both hospitalized and ICU continue their dropping trend, as can be seen in the chart.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Maryland's hospitalization numbers have leveled off for now. No major changes to our laws / reopening phase yet however.

 

[Tatty_Two]

 

[Vayra86]

That's true. I think part of the reason however, is because people over-complicate the explanation of this disease. I've shared with you my "hard cutoff explanation". Hopefully more people can utilize this method to explain COVID19 to others.

We don't have to be "technically correct", even in the EE-terms, to do useful things. A diode is NOT a hard-cutoff function. We just "estimate" the hard-cutoff function because its easier to understand than exponential growth. By describing the problem as hard-cutoff (everything either matters, or everything doesn't matter), many more people can come to understand what is going on here. These simpler models can be useful, even if they're less accurate than the reality.

Yes, I would agree we overcomplicate things a little bit, then again it is all new to everyone. About hard cutoff, do we really know that is how it will work? We only pretended to have some form of control in some places a few months back, other than that, this thing has been going its merry way. We also now know, that the measures required to reach R below one, are pretty destructive. Its a choice of evils, and that is what I mean with 'we don't understand exponential growth' - our world is not exponential in most ways. Our salaries aren't, for example, or our intelligence, our strength. Sure, we can measure exponential things and then understand how they work, but in our basic thought we really don't - other things take precedence that we feel are more pressing at each moment, until we reach a point where we cannot deny there is a problem that needs fixing. That is why the first lockdowns took too long to start, we could have seen it coming for months.

I've said this before in this and other topics on the subject, it is a capital mistake to just look at the cold data and make policy on it. Behavioral psychology and social considerations are at least as important, if not everything. This is about people management and crowd management, it is bigger than the individual, much like our other pressing issues.

 

[moproblems99]

I've said this before in this and other topics on the subject, it is a capital mistake to just look at the cold data and make policy on it. Behavioral psychology and social considerations are at least as important, if not everything. This is about people management and crowd management, it is bigger than the individual, much like our other pressing issues.

This is one of the most sensible nuggets in this thread. The broader scope of public health goes way beyond deaths and hospitalizations.

 

[dragontamer5788]

About hard cutoff, do we really know that is how it will work?

Hard-cutoff estimations of exponential growth is in very common use in Electrical Engineering. The math is the same, I don't see any reason why not. Think about it graphically, if it helps.

We only pretended to have some form of control in some places a few months back, other than that, this thing has been going its merry way.

Given the "Hard Cutoff" estimation, we're either on the left-side of the hard cutoff, or the right side. Either everything matters (because we've reached the left-side), or nothing mattered (because we've reached the right side).

That is why the first lockdowns took too long to start, we could have seen it coming for months.

The hard-cutoff estimate more or less proves the policy issue at play here.

Masks, Lockdowns, Vaccines... it doesn't "matter" how you get to the left. If you're on the left-side of the hard cutoff, you are winning vs the virus, and no further action is necessary. All policies that "further push you left" don't help, because you're already behind the hard cutoff and the virus is in remission.

If you're on the right-side of the cutoff, it doesn't matter how many lockdowns, masks, or vaccines you deploy. It feels like nothing is working... until you suddenly shift over to the left side and "something worked". It doesn't matter how hard you work, because as long as you're on the right side, infections, deaths, and hospitalizations continue to rise exponentially.

EDIT: Here's another paint image I whipped up to explain the economics.

Sure, we can measure exponential things and then understand how they work, but in our basic thought we really don't - other things take precedence that we feel are more pressing at each moment, until we reach a point where we cannot deny there is a problem that needs fixing.

That's where "Hard Cutoff" becomes a better description. Humans understand "Hard Cutoffs" since its an every-day occurance.

If you wanted to break the world record 100m sprint time, what do you have to run? 9.57s will be a new world record. 9.59 doesn't matter, you were slower than Bolt from 2012 Olympics. A 9.59 second run is the same as a 20-second run. We've got a hard-cutoff before you get entered into the record books.

From the perspective of "set a new record", we have a hard cutoff. "Nothing matters" if you're above the cutoff, and no one really cares how much you beat the old record by. Even winning by 0.01 seconds would be enough.

Its a bit of a "lie" because hard-cutoffs aren't reality. The "reality" is exponential growth. But... yeah. I can see where some people haven't practiced their logarithms and may need a different, simpler model to understand things.

 

[moproblems99]

Its a bit of a "lie" because hard-cutoffs aren't reality.

So I'll take a piece from The Witcher: The Lesser of Two Evils teachings. Let's look at the virus:

Option 1: Do nothing. IE: protect the Economy. Lots of people die because we prioritize the economy and the good of the country over the people.

Option 2: Shutdown. IE: Protect the people. The economy (and country) tumble into chaos because we value the person over the country.

So which is the lesser of two evils? As the lessons from the Witcher teach us, it doesn't matter because both options are 'evil'. Ultimately, the reality of both options is that lots of people are going to die and the economy is going to crash because neither option is viable. In option 1, the economy will eventually die as people can't be replaced fast enough. In option 2, people die because of other factors like starvation, skirmishes, etc.

Both options (and reality) suffer from the fact that an effective vaccine isn't achieved. Which reading between Fauci's lines seems likely. Little bits are trickling out that the vaccine will not be effective enough. Just like we don't have vaccines for colds or the flu (flu vaccines are essentially 'luck').

Edit: This is the US's fate because we have one side pushing option 1 and one side pushing option 2. In reality, each option will fail and since neither will work with the other, a viable solution is not being worked towards. Shutdowns will only work if they last forever. As soon as you open interstate/international travel. The process repeats. The country and world does not have the money to play shutdown whack-a-mole all the time.

If we could actually get real numbers (no double counts, no fake death reports of Covid because they were in a car accident), we would find the death rate is not terribly significantly over the flu.

 

[dragontamer5788]

If we could actually get real numbers (no double counts, no fake death reports of Covid because they were in a car accident), we would find the death rate is not terribly significantly over the flu.

In case the international audience is confused: We've got popular billionares like Elon Musk spouting bullshit like this in America, and huge swaths of the population under control of such information. The misinformation in America is huge, and a huge portion of our population doesn't even realize it.

@moproblems99: If you seriously think we're overcounting COVID19 deaths, then you haven't done your research. We're undercounting them by virtually every measure. Furthermore, deaths are a lagging indicator. Just wait a few weeks and you'll see the mortality rate increase as it catches up to the infected. The mortality rate declines whenever there's a big spike (and yes, the USA is undergoing a massive, exponential spike right now), and the mortality rate increases when the spikes subside. Its the nature of the beast.

The flu does not fill up Texas and Florida's hospitals each year. Any comparisons between the Flu and COVID19 are insane.

56 Florida hospitals at ICU capacity

Hospital intensive care units at 48 Florida hospitals reached capacity as of July 10, according to data from the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration.

www.beckershospitalreview.com

 

[moproblems99]

In case the international audience is confused: We've got popular billionares like Elon Musk spouting bullshit like this in America, and huge swaths of the population under control of such information. The misinformation in America is huge, and a huge portion of our population doesn't even realize it.

@moproblems99: If you seriously think we're overcounting COVID19 deaths, then you haven't done your research. We're undercounting them by virtually every measure. Furthermore, deaths are a lagging indicator. Just wait a few weeks and you'll see the mortality rate increase as it catches up to the infected. The mortality rate declines whenever there's a big spike (and yes, the USA is undergoing a massive, exponential spike right now), and the mortality rate increases when the spikes subside. Its the nature of the beast.

The flu does not fill up Texas and Florida's hospitals each year. Any comparisons between the Flu and COVID19 are insane.

56 Florida hospitals at ICU capacity

Hospital intensive care units at 48 Florida hospitals reached capacity as of July 10, according to data from the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration.

www.beckershospitalreview.com

@dragontamer5788 , way to run with something I didn't say. Where did I say we are overcounting deaths? The only time I mentioned the word deaths was talking about car accident deaths being reported as Covid deaths. For which there are reports of happening. If want to have a real conversation, please leave your preconceived bias at the door Thank you very much. There are more numbers than just 'death count' that make up mortality rates. Let's try again when you can take your know it all cap off and climb down off that soap box.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Where did I say we are overcounting deaths?

If we could actually get real numbers (no double counts, no fake death reports of Covid because they were in a car accident)

But ultimately, your point was:

we would find the death rate is not terribly significantly over the flu.

Your statement is horrifyingly and dangerously false. The fact that you make the statement seriously is a great example of why Americans refuse to believe we even have a problem right now.

If want to have a real conversation

EDIT: FYI: I actually don't want to have a conversation on the issue, which is why I'm responding the way I am. You're welcome to believe in whatever you want. I've had enough discussions and conversations on the subject and have lost all hope in being able to convince people that their opinions are wrong through discussion. Believe in whatever you want, I'm simply pointing out that I disagree with the statement you made extremely strongly.

Not just this webpage, but on Reddit, in real life, with my friends and family. Its all the same discussion over and over again. It gets boring after a while and I'm in no mood to actually engage.

 

[EarthDog]

Covid Maps thread, gents...maps. Don't get your wee wee whacked over this.

 

[moproblems99]

But ultimately, your point was:



Your statement is horrifyingly and dangerously false. The fact that you make the statement seriously is a great example of why Americans refuse to believe we even have a problem right now.



EDIT: FYI: I actually don't want to have a conversation on the issue, which is why I'm responding the way I am. You're welcome to believe in whatever you want. I've had enough discussions and conversations on the subject and have lost all hope in being able to convince people that their opinions are wrong through discussion. Believe in whatever you want, I'm simply pointing out that I disagree with the statement you made extremely strongly.

Not just this webpage, but on Reddit, in real life, with my friends and family. Its all the same discussion over and over again. It gets boring after a while and I'm in no mood to actually engage.

Well, too bad. The truth doesn't care about feelings.

Your statement is horrifyingly and dangerously false. The fact that you make the statement seriously is a great example of why Americans refuse to believe we even have a problem right now.

Our problem isn't deaths per se. It is clogging the hospitals. Or in NYs case, not using the resources they had.

 

[moproblems99]

Covid Maps thread, gents...maps. Don't get your wee wee whacked over this.

Living the dream in Florida

Confirmed 442K +8,892

Deaths 6,116 +77

 

[Fourstaff]

The country and world does not have the money to play shutdown whack-a-mole all the time.

South Korea is successful doing whack-a-mole, Japan was doing fine until recently (too many moles). Both countries didn't go through massive lockdown cycles, life still went on (in a more controlled manner). You can add Taiwan to that list too.

If we could actually get real numbers (no double counts, no fake death reports of Covid because they were in a car accident), we would find the death rate is not terribly significantly over the flu.

I think the problem is not so much the death rate, but the disabilities of the survivors. Statistics is quoting a few severe disabilities per death recorded. It is going to be a massive drag on the economy and resources moving forward if US ends up with a few mln additional disabled people.

 

[moproblems99]

I think the problem is not so much the death rate, but the disabilities of the survivors. Statistics is quoting a few severe disabilities per death recorded. It is going to be a massive drag on the economy and resources moving forward if US ends up with a few mln additional disabled people.

Precisely, we are focusing on the wrong statistics.

South Korea is successful doing whack-a-mole, Japan was doing fine until recently (too many moles). Both countries didn't go through massive lockdown cycles, life still went on (in a more controlled manner). You can add Taiwan to that list too.

That too. The lockdowns are not necessary as demonstrated by the above. We can't afford it as we already did a lockdown unsuccessfully and half the country will likely try another.

 

[Fourstaff]

Precisely, we are focusing on the wrong statistics.

Deaths is a very good proxy for disabilities though. Testing for disabilities is resource intensive and time consuming, issuing death certificates is just another Tuesday.

That too. The lockdowns are not necessary as demonstrated by the above. We can't afford it as we already did a lockdown unsuccessfully and half the country will likely try another.

We will find out in the coming weeks if Japan is successful combating wave #2. If they are successful, selective lockdown may become the model response to the COVID problem.

With so many unemployed, the economy has a very high chance of crashing with or without another lockdown. Might as well try to do a proper lockdown to prevent more deaths.

 

[moproblems99]

Deaths is a very good proxy for disabilities though. Testing for disabilities is resource intensive and time consuming, issuing death certificates is just another Tuesday.

Difficult to determine permanence at this stage anyway.

We will find out in the coming weeks if Japan is successful combating wave #2. If they are successful, selective lockdown may become the model response to the COVID problem.

With so many unemployed, the economy has a very high chance of crashing with or without another lockdown. Might as well try to do a proper lockdown to prevent more deaths.

That depends if you want to put the economy out of its misery or do our best to bring it back. As you said, a proper lockdown is pretty much a nail in the coffin. A tiered approach based on risk factor is likely going to be the only way. Similar to professional sports, if you don't want to take part, that is your choice but you're likely going to have to deal with standard unemployment to make do. Tough choices are going to have be made. Gathering together to burn buildings and chant Kumbaya isn't likely going to cut it.

 

[EarthDog]

The lockdowns are not necessary as demonstrated by the above.

The biggest difference between these regions and the US is the willingness and sheer number(%) of people willing and being told to wear masks. So... sure, life can go on without strict lockdowns, but you need to get the buy in of the people. It seems a lot of people in that region wear masks almost for giggles so it's easier. It's a bit scary to see how wearing a mask was politicized and polarized here in the states. There are angry as F people on both sides of the fence.

Living the dream in Florida

Like, the dreams you get when you take those malaria drugs?

Anyhoo... maps and data, gents/staff(lol)...looks like we're trending to flatten things again.

 

[moproblems99]

Like, the dreams you get when you take those malaria drugs?

I wish. I only have the normal stuff. Give me the good stuff since I don't think Elon is going to honor my request for a shot to Mars.

It's a bit scary to see how wearing a mask was politicized and polarized here in the states. There are angry as F people on both sides of the fence.

Well, I can see why some people feel certain ways. All you have to do is look at some people in this thread reaction to see why others just say FU. It takes some humility some times to work together and many people just aren't willing at this point. I'd presume if this wasn't an election year it may have turned out a little different. Both sides are extra turnt right now but that is still likely overly optimistic. It's always 'the other sides' fault.

 

[dragontamer5788]

---------

Its clear why Musk tweets the propaganda he does. Because he wants to keep his factory open. Its pretty clear, and somewhat understandable. Where it crosses the line is that Mr. Musk adds propaganda to the moment, and people like you get wrapped up in his "just a flu" tweets and "false positives" mischaracterizations.

Actually trying to logic it out doesn't work. Because Mr. Musk has more ethos than me in your mind. Instead, the only approach I have to even try to convince you, is to first pull Musk down from his pedestal, and then maybe, and only maybe then, will you possibly listen to me. Otherwise, you just continue to follow in your celebrity Iron-man wannabe.

Mr. Musks actions to reopen his factory against county regulations (1 week early), has already led to consequences. His propaganda continues to pollute the internet, but is essential in his long term strategy to keep the public on his side (ie: his side of keeping his factory open). Yeah, I'm pissed about it. Who wouldn't be? Here's a false-engineer using his ethos to mislead the public into his selfish gains against the greater good.

 

[moproblems99]

Mr. Musk adds propaganda to the moment, and people like you get wrapped up in his "just a flu" tweets and "false positives" mischaracterizations

Hey cool story bro. You have no idea what I was going to say.

Edit:
You have proven you can't get over your false assumptions of me so why not just leave it to stats if you can't play nice in the sandbox. The only tweet I have read of Musk's this year is the one where he was surprised NYPost was still around. I can't even remember the right words

 

[dragontamer5788]

The flu killed 35,000 people after infecting 35 million people in 2018-2019 winter season. (2020 season is weird because of the lockdowns, so I prefer the 2018-2019 season). https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

COVID19 has killed 151K people during a lockdown after infecting 4.4 Million (USA current stats). I don't care how many "double-countings" you think there are, there's no comparison to the death rate. We're not even anywhere close to done yet (and most of those infections occurred in the past 2 weeks mind you, not enough time for most of these newly infected to die yet over COVID19)

 

[the54thvoid]

This isn't the thread for arguing about which person has the wrong opinion. If you really must do that here - do it with cold hard stats. Opinions on right and wrong are better suited for the lounge thread, and I welcome folks to post there:

https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/covid-19-a-global-issue.264565/page-97#post-4317374

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50613 confirmed infected --- 203 more
- 35875 recovered --- 249 more
- 1725 fatalities --- 3 more
- 437976 suspected cases --- 2187 more
- 1561919 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 26th
- 1600 waiting for test results --- 4 more
- 35339 under watch from authorities --- 4 more
- 403 hospitalized --- 1 more
- 43 in ICU --- 2 more

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 21 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

The vast majority of new cases are still in the Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region: of the 203 new cases, 164 were in this region.

The flu does not fill up Texas and Florida's hospitals each year. Any comparisons between the Flu and COVID19 are insane.

56 Florida hospitals at ICU capacity

Hospital intensive care units at 48 Florida hospitals reached capacity as of July 10, according to data from the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration.

www.beckershospitalreview.com

Not just Florida but anywhere, AFAIK.