Nightmare Fuel for Intel: Arm CEO Predicts Arm will Take Over 50% Windows PC Market-share by 2029

[Philaphlous]

Hmm, where have I heard predictions like this before...

Microsoft Exec: People Are Choosing Windows Phones Over iPhone, Android Smartphones | CRN

Microsoft, nearly three years after launching Windows Phone, can now say it has overtaken a rival smartphone vendor. Now it's rallying partners around the news.

www.crn.com

Windows Phone will overtake iPhone by 2015, analyst divines

Analyst firm IDC has stuck its neck out with a futuregazing report that sees Windows Phone overhauling Apple's iOS in just four years.

www.cnet.com

lol! I always love seeing predictions and seeing how wrong they are with hindsight... Makes me wonder if NVIDIA will really in-fact be the AI leader going forward...sure looks like it but who knows...

 

[redeye]

and apple will not benefit from this?…

baby steps ARM, when windows on ARM surpasses Apples laptops and iPads, then we can predict when windows on ARM will take over the World.

heck, has linux on ARM laptops (NON-apple chips) have 50% share? (for this argument only count attached displays)

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

lol! I always love seeing predictions and seeing how wrong they are with hindsight... Makes me wonder if NVIDIA will really in-fact be the AI leader going forward...sure looks like it but who knows...

Yeah, and MS was shoveling money into WP at that time. When Surface RT came out, there were a few other players that made WOA tablets, including ones powered by Qualcomm. MS threw a lot of money at WOA tablets back then, too. Maybe it was too soon back then and WOA is finally viable, but so far we just have hype, which is expected. I’m heavily skeptical, especially since MS just laid an egg with its handling of Recall.

 

[Upgrayedd]

AMD is a bigger and more stable company than intel. And even Qualcomm.

AMD:
View attachment 350734

Qualcomm:
View attachment 350735

intel:
View attachment 350736



Err, they can always continue to make 22 and 32nm products for lower performance devices.

P/E ratio for AMD is 236
Qualcomm 28 P/E
Intel is 32 P/E
Apple is 30 P/E

Market cap is not cash on hand. AMD is highly overvalued on the stock market. I think intel has like 5x the cash on hand vs AMD.

 

[Leiesoldat]

Linus and Luke had a very interesting interview on the WAN Show a couple weeks back with Jim Keller that provided some good information on RISC-V as the dominant architecture within the next decade or so. I encourage people to look that up and have a listen to what Jim Keller talked about. x86 has a lot of legacy baggage attached to it that is bogging down future developments, but as consumers we're not going to notice the architecture backend switch from x86 to RISC-V or ARM if that happens. I know I don't notice any difference going from x86 MacOS to current Apple Silicon MacOS.

 

[persondb]

Can you explain the failure of this instruction: AVX-512? It turned out to be a power hog, and was abandoned.
Why was that? And what solution does RISC-V have to compute as an alternative?

AVX-512 wasn't a 'failure'. It was the implementation of it that it was a failure at the time due to it causing clocks regressions when it was active(because it consumed too much power).

If someone also did similar featured ISA with same clocks, node and design constraints of Intel, it would have been the same result.

If you look at Emerald Rapids AVX-512 benchmarks by Phoronix, you will see that Intel has no such issues anymore.

Intel 5th Gen Xeon "Emerald Rapids" AVX-512 Performance - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

Linus and Luke had a very interesting interview on the WAN Show a couple weeks back with Jim Keller that provided some good information on RISC-V as the dominant architecture within the next decade or so. I encourage people to look that up and have a listen to what Jim Keller talked about. x86 has a lot of legacy baggage attached to it that is bogging down future developments, but as consumers we're not going to notice the architecture backend switch from x86 to RISC-V or ARM if that happens. I know I don't notice any difference going from x86 MacOS to current Apple Silicon MacOS.

What Apple did right was they did the unpopular move of dropping 32bit apps way back with Catalina, and they made the dev kit so that recompiling existing 64bit apps was relatively easy to do. That first move essentially eliminated a lot of legacy stuff that would never get recompiled, and so the jump to Apple Silicon was about as painless as an architecture jump could be.

I think the question for Windows is are they as prepared for this as Apple was. I know 64bit apps are covered, but I don’t know about 32bit, which covers a lot of legacy software, including many classic game engines. The other big unknown is how good Qualcomm is going to be with graphics drivers. No one expects their Mac to really play games, since Mac gaming has never been that popular. Can’t say the same for Windows. Will there be issues playing stuff that similarly priced x86 machines can handle just fine? I don’t doubt that for many basic users, WOA is enough, and might even be ideal, but is that 50% of Windows users? Not so sure about that, and the current crop of Snapdragon X devices aren’t budget priced, so they might be targeting the wrong market from the get go.

 

[AnotherReader]

What Apple did right was they did the unpopular move of dropping 32bit apps way back with Catalina, and they made the dev kit so that recompiling existing 64bit apps was relatively easy to do. That first move essentially eliminated a lot of legacy stuff that would never get recompiled, and so the jump to Apple Silicon was about as painless as an architecture jump could be.

I think the question for Windows is are they as prepared for this as Apple was. I know 64bit apps are covered, but I don’t know about 32bit, which covers a lot of legacy software, including many classic game engines. The other big unknown is how good Qualcomm is going to be with graphics drivers. No one expects their Mac to really play games, since Mac gaming has never been that popular. Can’t say the same for Windows. Will there be issues playing stuff that similarly priced x86 machines can handle just fine? I don’t doubt that for many basic users, WOA is enough, and might even be ideal, but is that 50% of Windows users? Not so sure about that, and the current crop of Snapdragon X devices aren’t budget priced, so they might be targeting the wrong market from the get go.

Unlike Microsoft, Apple doesn't have to worry about legacy users. In Microsoft's case, dropping 32-bit support would be a mistake as unlike Apple's software, backwards compatibility is a key feature of Windows. You're right about Qualcomm's aspirations not matching the goal of a 50% market share; they seem to be focused on the higher end of the laptop market.

 

[natr0n]

Ah yes, breaking news - coffee shop owner predicts that coffee will overtake water as the most consumed beverage in the world by 20XX. “Chances are good,” he says, “especially considering we have an exclusive agreement with McDonalds to pour coffee into customers cup regardless of their order”.
I am obviously being extremely snarky here, but such predictions are usually based on providing the best optics for shareholders.

Then diabetes and blood pressures increase from that... then medicines profits quadruple. You have henchmen guarding a building of fatcats lighting cigars with 100 bills... Batman is constipated and spider-man has arthritis...My imagination took off.

 

[Assimilator]

RISC-V as the dominant architecture within the next decade or so

LOL, no. Where do you children come up with this nonsense?

 

[Onasi]

LOL, no. Where do you children come up with this nonsense?

I am placing my bets on RISC-V becoming a dominant architecture right about the same time as Linux becomes a dominant desktop OS.

 

[kondamin]

LOL, no. Where do you children come up with this nonsense?

It is going to push arm out of a lot of appliances like washing machines, alarm systems, routers etc where only a fraction of isa extensions are needed for them to run properly.

 

[Daven]

LOL, no. Where do you children come up with this nonsense?

Assimilator, Intel is going away as the dominant anything in the coming years. You cannot refute what people say just because it's not Intel. Sure, it may not be RISC-V as such things are hard to predict. But what's not hard to predict is the downfall of Intel. They will not be gone but will become a small player in however the industry shakes out in the coming years. Again, don't refute what I'm saying just because I say it will not be Intel. That's not evidence enough. Not anymore. Intel made too many mistakes and the past is no longer relevant in today's environment. Intel cannot come back and other technologies (some present, some yet to be revealed) are now leading the way.

 

[R0H1T]

Assimilator, Intel is going away as the dominant anything in the coming years. You cannot refute what people say just because it's not Intel. Sure, it may not be RISC-V as such things are hard to predict. But what's not hard to predict is the downfall of Intel. They will not be gone but will become a small player in however the industry shakes out in the coming years. Again, don't refute what I'm saying just because I say it will not be Intel. That's not evidence enough. Not anymore. Intel made too many mistakes and the past is no longer relevant in today's environment. Intel cannot come back and other technologies (some present, some yet to be revealed) are now leading the way.

And they're getting what hundreds(tens?) of billions of dollars in subsidies for making fabs nearly everywhere in the world? Yeah atm Intel is to US what GM was 20-30 years back, too big to fail!

 

[maximumterror]

In the past, AMD's Opteron ARM processors were some of the most commercially unsuccessful products the company has ever launched. Would be interesting how that would pan out today, though.

some sources says completely opposite:
"Customer ignorance of alternatives to the Pentium series further contributed to these designs being comparatively unsuccessful, despite the fact that the K5 had very good Pentium compatibility and the 6x86 was significantly faster than the Pentium on integer code.[j] AMD later managed to grow into a serious contender with the K6 set of processors, which gave way to the very successful Athlon and Opteron"

 

[kondamin]

Assimilator, Intel is going away as the dominant anything in the coming years. You cannot refute what people say just because it's not Intel. Sure, it may not be RISC-V as such things are hard to predict. But what's not hard to predict is the downfall of Intel. They will not be gone but will become a small player in however the industry shakes out in the coming years. Again, don't refute what I'm saying just because I say it will not be Intel. That's not evidence enough. Not anymore. Intel made too many mistakes and the past is no longer relevant in today's environment. Intel cannot come back and other technologies (some present, some yet to be revealed) are now leading the way.

Bit to pessimistic about intel there They are employing a lot of very smart people and are using the same technology TSMC is.
there is nothing that makes one a better company than the other

Also TSMC has had it's own pitfalls over the years never mind Samsung

 

[R0H1T]

Not the same Opteron, although it has to be said that almost one was making ARM server chips at the time!

some sources says completely opposite:

https://www.amd.com/system/files/documents/hierofalcon-product-brief.pdf

Even I didn't realize AMD made them.

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

I think we need to see how Intel's tile approach pans out. I think they might be on to something there, even if it's just mobile. After all, so far Qualcomm is only threatening in this ultra mobile space, and Arrow Lake could be better. I've yet to see a passively cooled SDX model too. Are they even possible? If not, then I'm not all that impressed. So far, only Apple has been able to pull off a passively-cooled laptop that doesn't suck, even when it heats up.

 

[R0H1T]

Well I'm pretty sure Apple power limits the chips on Macbook Air, I have the M2 mini & even with a smallish fan it can get hot/loud in stress tests or benchmarks. You can get it past 90C relatively easily, with VM as well. If Intel/AMD throttle their best chips they can get close to the "Apple" effect just with lower ST scores!

 

[Daven]

there is nothing that makes one a better company than the other

Exactly. Here is the best CPU market share prediction across all segments after the next 5-6 years:

Intel 11%
AMD 11%
Apple 11%
Qualcomm 11%
Mediatek 11%
Nvidia 11%
Other ARM 11%
Other RISC-V 11%
Unknown future tech 11%
Pie 1%

Error +/- 11%

For a company that use to have >90% market share across all segments, this is extremely, extremely bad for Intel even under increases in TAM (total addressable market).

 

[R0H1T]

Where's the other 1%

 

[Dr. Dro]

some sources says completely opposite:
"Customer ignorance of alternatives to the Pentium series further contributed to these designs being comparatively unsuccessful, despite the fact that the K5 had very good Pentium compatibility and the 6x86 was significantly faster than the Pentium on integer code.[j] AMD later managed to grow into a serious contender with the K6 set of processors, which gave way to the very successful Athlon and Opteron"

I specifically meant the Opteron ARM chips, not the Opteron (now EPYC) server processor line in itself. Did you ask ChatGPT that? LOL

That reminds me, most Optys are hella cheap these days. Not sure about the motherboards though, but makes for a super fun quad-socket build.

 

[Daven]

Where's the other 1%

Its the tenth item in my list… pie.

 

[Garrus]

Their main miscalculation is the lack of GPU power. The #1 reason people buy new PCs or laptops is for GPU performance, not CPU performance.

They need to double their iGPU to really tempt most of the market.

NVidia is king, not Intel. But you don't beat Intel unless you provide a GPU option.

Nvidia + Qualcomm might work, but better to double the Qualcomm GPU instead, as soon as possible.

I feel like they used all the die space for the NPU and cut the GPU back too much as a consequence.

Apple's number one problem is lack of ram and storage. Qualcomm's is lack of GPU power.

Intel and AMD still have the ram, the storage, the GPU. The things people want. The entire package.

 

[Steevo]

As a diehard DIY PC enthusiast, I want what you want. But workloads and storage are moving to the cloud, for the majority of the planet, a smartphone is the only ‘computer’ most will ever own and once an industry goes super mainstream, boutique parts are relegated to hobbiests.

In the future, discrete GPUs for desktops, consumer purchaseable socketed CPUs and other DIY parts will become antiques as the computing world moves to wearables, ‘dumb terminals’ that fit in your pocket and massive super computing arrays.

Having to sit in a stationary position (desk) while interacting with a piece of plastic (mouse) to use a box connected with wires (desktop) will look barbaric to users in the not so distant future.

As a user of smartphones, cloud data entry on a smartphone is retarded. At the minimum a thin client is needed to run spreadsheets or data entry, and usually a larger screen.

Once I see a 15 inch truly instant on tablet with a good keyboard (10 key required) that also has good battery life, a bright screen, and doesn't lag when two or three tabs and a couple programs are open....

I have a S22 and Iphone 15 Pro, even with a link to the cloud spreadsheets it's slow, so slow I choose to use my work laptop or PC 95% of the time.


RISC is a chosen bunch of acceleration units on a chip, no more power efficient than a X86-64 chip with the same acceleration parts.