NVIDIA Expects Upcoming Blackwell GPU Generation to be Capacity-Constrained

[OneMoar]

Actually, they're obligated to do so. It's in shareholders' direct best interests to be made legally aware of the fact that the company may potentially face supply chain and production difficulties, all of which have a direct impact on a potential earnings forecast and on the income itself. Regulatory agencies would need to be involved if Nvidia willingly misled investors on their actual situation.

The TSMC N3 node is in extreme demand, and the processors Nvidia has are easily amongst the most advanced using this node, which means that yields are not exactly perfect. Everything they said is true.

true statements are the worst form of manipulation thats what makes it problematic

 

[Wirko]

true statements are the worst form of manipulation thats what makes it problematic

Agreed here. Lying by omission is always possible to some extent.

 

[cfenton]

Because it's the only way such advanced processors are feasible. Semiconductors aren't magic.



Of course we've heard nothing of the sort regarding the unjustifiable, insane consumer-grade Ryzen Threadripper prices, have we? Just gotta dog on Nvidia for some quick acceptance points.



Sure because they can just "make" them, it's not like they don't rely on TSMC, yields being good or anything. Apple's also totally not getting the lion's share of N3 wafers, iPhones are made of just pixie and fairy dust or something. Even Intel will use this node to make their next-gen Core processors. That's how insane the demand for this node has become.

But of course, you just "make" them for like, "really cheap" and then "charge thousands" because it's greed and not because they spent multiple billions on R&D and have actual constraints involving third parties, technology and at this scale, even the concept of physics itself. Money just solves (absolves) everything!

Thanks for taking the time to write this. It is staggering how many people commenting on a tech site have absolutely no idea how technology works. Someone above suggested that graphics cards shouldn't require drivers or software, and several people seem to think Nvidia can just make as many GPUs as they want whenever they want.

 

[OneMoar]

techically nvidia isn't lying what they aren't telling you is that they could significantly lower the price by simplying paying more to fabs to increase production

basicly the game is don't accually tell the public what we CAN do. tell them what we WILL Do then we can keep the price higher for longer

 

[Dr. Dro]

techically nvidia isn't lying what they aren't telling you is that they could significantly lower the price by simplying paying more to fabs to increase production

basicly the game is don't accually tell the public what we CAN do. tell them what we WILL Do then we can keep the price higher for longer

Not this time. The industry currently has an extreme reliance on TSMC, and its leading edge nodes are booked out years in advance. TSMC is selling its entire capacity, and building more fabs to actually cope with the demand - supply from the fabs that are yet to be built are likely already sold by now. It's simply how it's going, TSMC is firmly ahead in the semiconductor fabrication business and its technology is pretty much the bedrock of almost everything right now.

AMD, NVIDIA, Apple, Qualcomm... and now even Intel, who has a foundry business of their own and has always been a point of pride for the company, they're all using TSMC and more specifically, demand the N3 node they're using to build these GPUs. Supply constraints are a real concern, IMHO, and I wouldn't be surprised to see consumer-grade parts stick to a less advanced node such as N4 used on Ada simply to ensure that the supply situation remains stable.

They are selling every single graphics card they make, you can bet on that one. There's no "nGreedia" at work here.

 

[3valatzy]

They are selling every single graphics card they make

Source with evidence?

The question is at what cost?
Well, in general yes, it is either sooner or later, or how much the retailer on-shelves duration stay lasts.

 

[Dr. Dro]

Source with evidence?

The question is at what cost?
Well, in general yes, it is either sooner or later, or how much the retailer on-shelves duration stay lasts.

You need to look way beyond the DIY market and gaming/consumer-grade cards, even though the effects are apparent, 4090's selling for more than MSRP and the tiers below routinely going out of stock on retailers across the world. This isn't a big industry secret or anything, demand for GPUs is red hot right now.

 

[3valatzy]

You need to look way beyond the DIY market and gaming/consumer-grade cards, even though the effects are apparent, 4090's selling for more than MSRP and the tiers below routinely going out of stock on retailers across the world. This isn't a big industry secret or anything, demand for GPUs is red hot right now.

There are problems.
1. You can't know whether the supply is not artificially limited in order to keep the prices high.
2. German Mindfactory has sold so far approximately 8,420 pcs. RTX 4090, which since October 2022 means around 500 pcs. a month.
I guess (because there is no statistics data per country) Germany is one of the top largest GPU markets and a large part of the graphics production goes there.

Question - do you really think that Nvidia can make only 500 pcs. a month for Germany alone?
To put it in a context - 500 working AD102 dies could be made by 7 wafers.

 

[Dr. Dro]

There are problems.
1. You can't know whether the supply is not artificially limited in order to keep the prices high.
2. German Mindfactory has sold so far approximately 8,420 pcs. RTX 4090, which since October 2022 means around 500 pcs. a month.
I guess (because there is no statistic data per country) Germany is one of the top largest GPU markets and a large part of the graphics production goes there.

Question - do you really think that Nvidia can make only 500 pcs. a month for Germany alone?

There is more than reasonable evidence to the contrary. Like I said numerous times, semiconductor fabrication is not magic, yields are not perfect, and this is a market with exceptional ongoing demand. Regarding Mindfactory, it caters to a budget conscious European market and is but one small, consumer-faced shop for the DIY segment. The vast majority of the GPUs they sell are RX 7800 XT for a reason.

 

[OneMoar]

Not this time. The industry currently has an extreme reliance on TSMC, and its leading edge nodes are booked out years in advance. TSMC is selling its entire capacity, and building more fabs to actually cope with the demand - supply from the fabs that are yet to be built are likely already sold by now. It's simply how it's going, TSMC is firmly ahead in the semiconductor fabrication business and its technology is pretty much the bedrock of almost everything right now.

AMD, NVIDIA, Apple, Qualcomm... and now even Intel, who has a foundry business of their own and has always been a point of pride for the company, they're all using TSMC and more specifically, demand the N3 node they're using to build these GPUs. Supply constraints are a real concern, IMHO, and I wouldn't be surprised to see consumer-grade parts stick to a less advanced node such as N4 used on Ada simply to ensure that the supply situation remains stable.

They are selling every single graphics card they make, you can bet on that one. There's no "nGreedia" at work here.

thats assuming that TSMC isn't playing the same games; this is the same TSMC That routinely has random floods/poweroutages when ever prices get too low

I am no amd fanboy but its pretty clear that amds failure in the market has setup nvidia to basicly run the entire show and thats something that should be heavily scrutinised
something about a inch given and 40 billion miles taken ...

 

[Dr. Dro]

thats assuming that TSMC isn't playing the same games; this is the same TSMC That routinely has random floods/poweroutages when ever prices get too low

I am no amd fanboy but its pretty clear that amds failure in the market has setup nvidia to basicly run the entire show and thats something that should be heavily scrutinised
something about a inch given and 40 billion miles taken ...

Come on now. Why would they be so desperate to build new fabs all the time, expand their business into the US (see TSMC Arizona expansion), face all the difficulties and spend hundreds of billions of dollars if they were withholding production? Their chips are in almost every device you use in your daily life, and you're likely not even aware of that.

AMD is reliant on TSMC all the same, and the decision to place Radeon in a lower priority was a decision of their own - margins on EPYC and Threadripper products are insane, and Ryzen makes it up to the lower margins in sheer volume. Said margins aren't attainable on their graphics products, even in the workstation segment.

 

[OneMoar]

Come on now. Why would they be so desperate to build new fabs all the time, expand their business into the US (see TSMC Arizona expansion), face all the difficulties and spend hundreds of billions of dollars if they were withholding production? Their chips are in almost every device you use in your daily life, and you're likely not even aware of that.

AMD is reliant on TSMC all the same, and the decision to place Radeon in a lower priority was a decision of their own - margins on EPYC and Threadripper products are insane, and Ryzen makes it up to the lower margins in sheer volume. Said margins aren't attainable on their graphics products, even in the workstation segment.

Desperate? meh begrudgingly is more like it
of course I know TSMC makes chips for _everything_

but I remind you that the new fabs in the states don't exist because TSMC wants them too they exist per us-gubberment mandate and gubberment-monies without either of those mandates.
tsmc would be far less inclined to build these new fabs so I would hardly call them 'desperate' are new fabs good for them in the long run? yep. in the next year or even 3 Nope.

and then there is the problem of who you are going to get to staff and run the US Fabs because there isn't enough labor force in that sector stateside ... yet

and AMD is going to miss the AI-supertrain to money town (again) and remain forever the underdog because the people in the gpu division are clueless

nobody disputes ryzen(anymore) but not relavent to nvidia/partners playing pin the tail on the price-fixing donkey

Intel is comming up fast but there idiotic choice to kill larrabee years ago is biting them hard

Nvidia basicly has a Run of the entire Gpu/AI market completely unchallanged in the DC for AI which is where all the money is going to be.

you put a giant bag-o-dollars in front a company they are going to make a grab at it and they WILL break every rule and step on every toe to get it

which is why a hawk eye needs to be keept on every move and statement they make as well as a eye on anybody else that stands to profit from the situation

cat being away mice gonna play. childern gonna break shit while the parents are out of town

 

[3valatzy]

There is more than reasonable evidence to the contrary. Like I said numerous times, semiconductor fabrication is not magic, yields are not perfect, and this is a market with exceptional ongoing demand. Regarding Mindfactory, it caters to a budget conscious European market and is but one small, consumer-faced shop for the DIY segment. The vast majority of the GPUs they sell are RX 7800 XT for a reason.

Look, I showed you that Mindfactory needs only 7 TSMC 5nm wafers to meet its monthly demand.
On the other hand, TSMC reported back in 2022 that its monthly 5nm wafer capacity is 150,000 wafers. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220323PD215.html

And yes, Germany is not a small market. A small market is Africa, South America, Eastern Europe.
I guess in my country no one has bought an RTX 4090.

And no, RX 7800 XT is not doing that good. It has sold under 10,000 since September last year. That's ~1500 pcs. a month ~ 20-25 wafers.

 

[Dr. Dro]

Desperate? meh begrudgingly is more like it
of course I know TSMC makes chips for _everything_

but I remind you that the new fabs in the states don't exist because TSMC wants them too they exist per us-gubberment mandate and gubberment-monies without either of those mandates.
tsmc would be far less inclined to build these new fabs so I would hardly call them 'desperate' are new fabs good for them in the long run? yep. in the next year or even 3 Nope.

and then there is the problem of who you are going to get to staff and run the US Fabs because there isn't enough labor force in that sector stateside ... yet

and AMD is going to miss the AI-supertrain to money town (again) and remain forever the underdog because the people in the gpu division are clueless

nobody disputes ryzen(anymore) but not relavent to nvidia/partners playing pin the tail on the price-fixing donkey

Intel is comming up fast but there idiotic choice to kill larrabee years ago is biting them hard

Nvidia basicly has a Run of the entire Gpu/AI market completely unchallanged in the DC for AI which is where all the money is going to be.

you put a giant bag-o-dollars in front a company they are going to make a grab at it and they WILL break every rule and step on every toe to get it

which is why a hawk eye needs to be keept on every move and statement they make as well as a eye on anybody else that stands to profit from the situation

cat being away mice gonna play. childern gonna break shit while the parents are out of town

I don't think that is going to happen, AMD has made a lot of money in the recent AI bubble, and their Instinct business is going full speed ahead. Their latest MI300X accelerator is very capable, more affordable than Nvidia's Hopper products and seems to have earned the respect of the industry. They've also incorporated Xilinx recently and its entire gamut of related ASICs.

Spoiler

Beyond red hot demand, to invest in the US is primarily a geopolitical move. Taiwan is the beating heart of the semiconductor industry - and to that extent, of the technology world.

It's not begrudgingly, it's out of a very real need. There has been an increasing concern regarding the stability of the world's economy in case of the semiconductor supply disruption due to an eventual scenario that involves an open war with China.

The Chinese government claims sovereignty over Taiwan, something that is largely recognized internationally, and it's been known for some time that the Chinese army is expected to have readiness for a full scale invasion of the Taiwanese territory by 2027. Other than the claim of territorial sovereignty, China views the Taiwanese semiconductor industry and its technology not only as a bargaining chip with the West but also something that it inherently has the full rights to, since it views Taiwan as an integral part of the People's Republic of China as a state and organization, having placed the full weight of its diplomatic capabilities to reinforce that this is the non-negotiable stance.

In an abundance of caution, the industry has decided to create next generation fabs in the United States, Germany and Israel, so that in an eventual conflict, supplies for key applications are secured. That's the true reason behind the funding and things like the CHIPS act.

Spoilered because of a bit grey area regarding no politically talk but it's in good faith and relevant to the conversation. No partisan talk, mods feel free to remove if its too much thanks.

Look, I showed you that Mindfactory needs only 7 TSMC 5nm wafers to meet its monthly demand.
On the other hand, TSMC reported back in 2022 that its monthly 5nm wafer capacity is 150,000 wafers. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220323PD215.html

And yes, Germany is not a small market. A small market is Africa, South America, Eastern Europe.
I guess in my country no one has bought an RTX 4090.

And no, RX 7800 XT is not doing that good. It has sold under 10,000 since September last year. That's ~1500 pcs. a month ~ 20-25 wafers.

Assuming 100% yield and disregarding as many variables as possible... but no, really. Mindfactory would pale even in comparison with Amazon let alone the OEM market. Very easy to get a skewed perspective from data like this.

 

[3valatzy]

Assuming 100% yield

Calculated with 80% yields. A 300-mm wafer can fit 89 potential die candidates. 80% yields means 71 qualifying dies.
500 dies is 7 wafers.

Mindfactory would pale even in comparison with Amazon let alone the OEM market. Very easy to get a skewed perspective from data like this.

Amazon is a bad retailer. Don't buy there.

What is the best website to buy pc components in Germany?

https://www.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/7tlfsw