I should clarify my point. I was making my comment based upon NVidia's own press slide showing the transition to cost-effective 20nm occurring in Q1 2015.
Fair enough, although I don't personally put much stock in a vendors slides, especially when it's an Nvidia/TSMC thing - they're like some masochistic couple - the Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor of the semicon world. I'd also note that some of the numbers for those projections have changed, or at least been made public, since the TSMC vs Intel transistor density spat earlier in the year.
The difference in cost per transistor between 20nm and 28nm is minimal, making me question whether it's worth putting engineering effort toward shrinking GPUs for a marginal cost savings per GPU (that may never make up the capital expenditure to make new masks and troubleshoot issues) rather than concentrating engineering on completely new GPUs at that smaller process. Unlike in the past, there's a lot more to be gained from a newer, more efficient architecture than from a die shrink.
The whole deal with 20/16nm, like (almost) any new process is the ability to dial in either a lower power budget or higher clocks. Lower power isn't a "must have" for the high end GPU market judging by recent events, and higher clocks mean higher localized temps in a more densely packed die which is a bit of a compromise on a large die (it's problematic enough on the small die Ivy Bridge/Haswell). If the current architecture can't fully utilise the high clock resources without pipeline bottlenecks is it worthwhile moving to a smaller node? - which is what I meant by "Would the GPU design benefit from, or require increased transistor density over increased GPU silicon cost for the given price points of the product being sold?". How much real world performance is gained vs overclock for the 750 Ti for example (percentage to percentage). W1zzard measured the difference as 14% more performance from a 18.2 - 22.7% clock boost between a stock 750 Ti (
980-1150 core), and an OC'ed card (
1202-1359 core), so there is a point where the higher clocks don't earn their keep