RDNA4 Prediction Time Part Deux!!!

[Daven]

Looks like we now have official numbers:

9070XT versus 7900GRE @ 4K
Game (4K Ultra) Rasterization	Factor Increase	Game (4K Ultra) Ray Tracing	Factor Increase
F1 24	1.23	Cyberpunk 2077	1.66
Cyberpunk 2077	1.48	Avator Frontiers of Pandora	​ 1.36​
Warhammer 2K: SM2	1.28	Far Cry 6	​ 1.46​
COD black OPS 6	1.33	The Witcher 3	​ 1.48​
Stalker 2​	1.33	Star Wars Outlaws	​ 1.48​
Starfield	1.34	Watch Dogs Legion	​ 1.52​
Assassin's Creed Mirage	1.43	Hitman 3	​ 1.59​
FF XVI Demo	1.4	Dying Light 2	​ 1.56​
Dragon Age Veilguard	1.41	F1 24	​ 1.66​
God of War Ragnarok	1.46	Average	1.53
Black Myth Wuhong	1.42
Average	1.37

AMD Radeon RX 9070 series gaming performance leaked: RX 9070XT is 42% faster on average than 7900 GRE at 4K - VideoCardz.com
AMD Radeon RX 9070 XT confirmed as 304W card, RX 9070 non-XT is 220W - VideoCardz.com

Here is how I see the full line-up now:

9070XT 16GB = 7900XTX = $549 = 300 W
9070 16GB = 7900XT = $449 = 220W
9060XT 12GB = 7900GRE = $349 = 185W
9060 12GB = 7800XT = $249 = 125W

Pricing is still somewhat unknown although there have been a couple of leaks. If the above turns out even close to true and it's looking likely, then we will return to some normalcy in the GPU market. The biggest question will be availability. Will AMD produce enough to satisfy demand and avoid the fiasco that is happening with Blackwell.

What do you predict?

 

[Macro Device]

There's nothing to predict, AMD are to take advantage and price these cards way higher than we want them to, just 1% better value than NVIDIA offerings, minus NVIDIA-exclusive features. It's been decades of constant underdelivery. You're a naïve person at best if you think it's gonna change.

 

[Daven]

There's nothing to predict, AMD are to take advantage and price these cards way higher than we want them to, just 1% better value than NVIDIA offerings, minus NVIDIA-exclusive features. It's been decades of constant underdelivery. You're a naïve person at best if you think it's gonna change.

I'm basing pricing on the leaked size of the die.

AMD Navi 48 RDNA4 GPU has 53.9 billion transistors, more than NVIDIA GB203 - VideoCardz.com

Navi 48 is as large as the 7800XT which was priced at $500 over 1.5 years ago. With inflation and tariffs, a price of $550 today for the same die size seems reasonable. I'm also basing the pricing on the direct comparison by AMD with the 7900GRE which had an MSRP of $550.

 

[AtiAmd]

One tier down...or 1.5 even....that might be it.

 

[Sound_Card]

So it looks like the "as fast as the 7900xtx (raster) and 4080s (ray)" was not a lie. I'm a bit surprised to be honest.

 

[Denver]

The reference model (304w) will trade blows with the XTX/4080S/5070ti, AIB models with OC 3.3-3.4ghz (350w) will be biting at the 5080's tail.
Prices: US$650-700(translating into 30-40% cheaper than the competitor, currently at $900-1000) and US$550.

 

[Zazigalka]

So it looks like the "as fast as the 7900xtx (raster) and 4080s (ray)" was not a lie. I'm a bit surprised to be honest.

Closer to 4070Ti Super in RT, but still very good

 

[GrimReaper85]

Here is how I see the full line-up now:

9070XT 16GB = 7900XTX = $549 = 300 W
9070 16GB = 7900XT = $449 = 220W
9060XT 12GB = 7900GRE = $349 = 185W
9060 12GB = 7800XT = $249 = 125W

I see this as very best case scenario, less than 10% chance that it will happen.
Here is how I see it:
9070 XT 16GB = 7900 XTX (and +10% in RT) = $649 = 300 W
9070 16GB = $499 = 220W, performance is not exactly 7900 XT, 10% worse in raster and 6% worse in RT, it's 4070 SUPER in raster and 4070 in RT
9060 XT 12GB = 7900 GRE = $349 = 185W, at least in raster it is no way it can be 7900 GRE if 9070 is only 106% 7900 GRE
9060 12GB = 7800 XT = $249 = 125W (is this even a model that will exist? First time I hear about it, and 4 cards on same chip seems exagerated, this will be 9050 XT N44 128-bit 16GB)

Either they are $500/650 which should be €650/800, or better to buy 7900 XT for €700. AMD's own cards will dictate the prices of 9070 cards.
They didn't even improve RT that much, only by around 15%, but should have by 30%, so if they will price them more than this, they can rot on the shelves.

 

[dgianstefani]

Optimistic pricing given the current market and AMD's history lol.

 

[AtiAmd]

I see this as very best case scenario, less than 10% chance that it will happen.
Here is how I see it:
9070 XT 16GB = 7900 XTX (and +10% in RT) = $649 = 300 W
9070 16GB = $499 = 220W, performance is not exactly 7900 XT, 10% worse in raster and 6% worse in RT, it's 4070 SUPER in raster and 4070 in RT
9060 XT 12GB = 7900 GRE = $349 = 185W, at least in raster it is no way it can be 7900 GRE if 9070 is only 106% 7900 GRE
9060 12GB = 7800 XT = $249 = 125W (is this even a model that will exist? First time I hear about it, and 4 cards on same chip seems exagerated, this will be 9050 XT N44 128-bit 16GB)

Some chatgp post
9060 125w beat 7800 xt 250w+
We wont win "dancing with the stars" this gen

 

[GrimReaper85]

Closer to 4070Ti Super in RT, but still very good

Here I see it as 81%, same as 3090 Ti and right between 4070 SUPER and 4070 Ti:

ASUS GeForce RTX 5070 Ti TUF OC Review

The ASUS GeForce RTX 5070 Ti TUF OC comes with a fantastic all-metal cooling solution that is built like a tank. During testing in our review, the card ran whisper-quiet at full load with the Quiet BIOS, and super cool with the default BIOS. The only problem is the high price of $1000.

www.techpowerup.com

133% 7900 GRE in raster and 150% 7900 GRE in RT is still pretty bad, that means they improved RT performance by only 13%, but should have by 30% to get 173% 7900 GRE which should be 105% 4070 Ti SUPER.

 

[taka]

Optimistic pricing given the current market and AMD's history lol.

Yup, very. My take on this: if 9070Xt performance = 5070Ti then price = 5070Ti -$50. And in 3 months another -$50, coz AMDiscount.
Street price..it depends...

 

[GrimReaper85]

Some chatgp post
9060 125w beat 7800 xt 250w+
We wont win "dancing with the stars" this gen

I copied this from the first post, added more info in brackets, but forgot to correct the 7800 XT performance. It should be around 150% 7600 XT which is 6800/3070 Ti/7700 XT level of performance.
Not $249 though, I didn't correct the prices. In EURO it should be max €400 (you can already get 7700 XT for €450) which is $299.

 

[pavle]

Why have you written 0.xx in the % columns? This makes no sense. Write actual percent (or 1.xx), e.g. F11 24, 66 (or 1.66) instead of 0.66. 0.66 would mean the RX 9070 XT speed is 66% of the speed of RX 7900 GRE.

 

[GerKNG]

too bad in non fairy tale real world the card will probably cost 800-1000€...

 

[alwayssts]

basing the pricing on the direct comparison by AMD with the 7900GRE which had an MSRP of $550.

Very interesting they chose that card, isn't it?

Also strangely interesting, 5070 got delayed as soon as things started to solidify...I guess we know who blinked, eh?

 

[Daven]

I see this as very best case scenario, less than 10% chance that it will happen.
Here is how I see it:
9070 XT 16GB = 7900 XTX (and +10% in RT) = $649 = 300 W
9070 16GB = $499 = 220W, performance is not exactly 7900 XT, 10% worse in raster and 6% worse in RT, it's 4070 SUPER in raster and 4070 in RT
9060 XT 12GB = 7900 GRE = $349 = 185W, at least in raster it is no way it can be 7900 GRE if 9070 is only 106% 7900 GRE
9060 12GB = 7800 XT = $249 = 125W (is this even a model that will exist? First time I hear about it, and 4 cards on same chip seems exagerated, this will be 9050 XT N44 128-bit 16GB)

Either they are $500/650 which should be €650/800, or better to buy 7900 XT for €700. AMD's own cards will dictate the prices of 9070 cards.
They didn't even improve RT that much, only by around 15%, but should have by 30%, so if they will price them more than this, they can rot on the shelves.

The RT improvement is based on CU count. The 9070XT has 64 CUs and over 50% more RT performance than the 7900 GRE which has 80 CUs. That’s a massive improvement and will be seen as such if the 9070XT sells for under $600. Also the pricing might be based on RT performance. If the 9070XT equals the 5070 in RT performance which looks likely and sells for $550, I can see AMD getting a lot of sales from mid-range customers who also care about raster performance.

Why have you written 0.xx in the % columns? This makes no sense. Write actual percent (or 1.xx), e.g. F11 24, 66 (or 1.66) instead of 0.66. 0.66 would mean the RX 9070 XT speed is 66% of the speed of RX 7900 GRE.

Well I did say %faster as the column header. But yeah I usually write % in decimal form which is not good.

Edit: Okay how do the numbers look now? I went with 'Factor Increase'.

 

[alwayssts]

The RT improvement is based on CU count. The 9070XT has 64 CUs and over 50% more RT performance than the 7900 GRE which has 80 CUs. That’s a massive improvement and will be seen as so if the 9070XT sells for under $600.

I would use BMW as the RT bench, as it's actually a quite good one (for standardization) as it uses it by default...this would put it more-or-less equal with a 5070ti?

The important part is if it's *capable* of 60fps mins in 1080p in similar titles, preferably with up-scaling to 4k (which hopefully looks decent).
Should be already over it for 1440p 'quality' upscaling (960p), which probably looks fine w/ FSR4.

To me, that is what they've got to hit if they want this thing to live a healthy life. Everything else is kind of immaterial, as it doesn't really have the ram for 4k and 1440p raster should be fine too, at least currently.

Eventually this, and many others, are going to be a 1080p cards all-around (once RT is somewhat standardized and people are more accustomed to up-scaling), but we're not there yet.
BMW is a good bench for 'right now' to judge the future.

BMW is very similar to something like Spiderman2 with RT which is very similar to...Almost like they're trying to tell you something. This is one of those 'important metrics' I keep trying to explain.

At worst, I think many are going want a card that will do 1080pRT->4k up-scaling and maintain 60fps mins. We'll have to see how she does at stock and with OCing.

Hopefully someone will test SM2 1080pRT->4k FSR4, or some similar title that performs similarly and has the feature.

 

[mechtech]

Cut out all the RT, and probably half the transistors, cut the die size by probably close to half and sell it as non-RT for probably close to half the price and I will buy one.

 

[JustBenching]

Reading off a twitter post, looks like the 5070ti is going to be 5-7% faster in RASTER and ~25% faster in RT than the 9070xt.

 

[Daven]

Reading off a twitter post, looks like the 5070ti is going to be 5-7% faster in RASTER and ~25% faster in RT than the 9070xt.

This is why I think AMD will price the 9070XT around the 5070. Because of RT. The delay was probably because AMD thought the 5070 would be around $650.

 

[Frick]

Reading off a twitter post, looks like the 5070ti is going to be 5-7% faster in RASTER and ~25% faster in RT than the 9070xt.

What twitter post?

 

[JustBenching]

What twitter post?

There was a guy comparing the numbers to TPU's 5070ti review

 

[Deleted member 247178]

9070XT = $549

Add $100. For those of us in Europe, this will likely amount to approximately ~€811 when taking into account VAT and currency conversion.

 

[Vayra86]

So it looks like the "as fast as the 7900xtx (raster) and 4080s (ray)" was not a lie. I'm a bit surprised to be honest.

I'll be waiting on real benches instead of numbers pulled out of someone's ass in some China sweat shop though.