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Intel's 18A Node Process Has Entered "Risk Production" - Foundry's Output Scaling Up

Intel's Vision 2025 conference ended yesterday—since then, media outlets have spent time poring over a multitude of announcements made during the two-day Las Vegas, Nevada event. Notably, Team Blue leadership confirmed that their Core Ultra 300 "Panther Lake" processor series is built to scale (on) 18A, and is on track for production later this year." Prominently-displayed presentation material indicated a roadmapped 2026 launch of "Panther Lake" client chips. The success of this next-gen mobile processor family is intertwined with Intel's Foundry service making marked progress. As summarized by the company's social media account, production teams are celebrating another milestone: "Intel 18A has entered risk production. This final stage is about stress-testing volume manufacturing before scaling up to high volume in the second half of 2025."

Under Pat Gelsinger's command, Team Blue set off on a "five nodes in four years" (5N4Y) adventure around mid-2021. This plan is set to conclude with the finalization of 18A, at some point this year, under a newly refreshed regime—with Lip-Bu Tan recently established as CEO. During an on-stage Intel Vision 2025 session, Kevin O'Buckley—Senior VP of Foundry Services—explained the meaning of: "risk production, while it sounds scary, is actually an industry standard terminology, and the importance of risk production is we've gotten the technology to a point where we're freezing it...Our customers have validated that; 'Yep, 18A is good enough for my product.' And we have to now do the 'risk' part, which is to scale it from making hundreds of units per day to thousands, tens of thousands, and then hundreds of thousands. So risk production..is scaling our manufacturing up and ensuring that we can meet not just the capabilities of the technology, but the capabilities at scale." By original "5N4Y" decree, top brass demanded that process nodes be (fully) available for production, rather than be stuck in a (not quite there) final high volume manufacturing (HVM) phase.

Intel Vision Presentation Labels Core Ultra 300 "Panther Lake" CPU Series as 2026 Products

Intel's freshly concluded Vision 2025 "Products Update and GTM" showcase included a segment dedicated to forthcoming Core Ultra 300 "Panther Lake" client processors. Industry watchdogs have grabbed a select few screenshots from Team Blue's broadcast from Las Vegas, Nevada—one backdropped slide confirms that Intel's next-generation mobile CPU series will launch in 2026. This information mirrors the company's Chinese office presenting of an AI PC roadmap—coverage of last month's event highlighted a scheduled first quarter 2026 "volume" arrival of "Core Ultra Next-gen Panther Lake (18A)."

Going back to early March, Intel leadership refuted online rumors of "Panther Lake" mobile CPUs being delayed into 2026, due to alleged problems encountered during the development of the Foundry service's 18A process node. An interviewed executive repeatedly insisted that his firm's brand-new series was on track for release within the second half of 2025. Fast-forward to the end of last week; Lip-Bu Tan expressed a similar outlook in a letter addressed to investors. The newly-established boss stated: "we will further enhance our (leadership) position in the second half of this year with the launch of Panther Lake, our lead product on Intel 18A, followed by Nova Lake in 2026." Industry insiders propose that the Core Ultra 300 series will become available in a very limited capacity come October, via an Early Enablement Program (EEP). Returning to this week—Jim Johnson, senior vice president of the firm's Client Computing Group, informed a watchful audience about the merits of his group's design: "I'm personally excited about Panther Lake because it combines the power efficiency of Lunar Lake, the performance of Arrow Lake, and is built to scale 18A and is on track for production later this year...Our client roadmap is the most innovative we've ever had, and we are far from done."

Intel's New CEO Commits to Launching "Panther Lake" in 2H 2025, "Nova Lake" Release On Track for 2026

In a letter addressed to stockholders, Intel's new CEO—Lip-Bu Tan—roadmapped the importance of a couple of major upcoming product launches. Starting off, Team Blue's new chief detailed a fresh approach, with the casting off of old strategies: "achieving the results I know Intel is capable of starts by refocusing on our customers. This has been priority number one since my first day on the job. I am listening carefully to their feedback so that we continue driving the changes needed to delight our customers and strengthen our competitive position. Plain and simple, the time for talk is over. We must turn our words into action and deliver on our commitments. I have been pleased to see the leadership team has already started driving the culture change needed to make this happen. As CEO, I will continue to drive this transformation so that we move faster, work smarter and make it easier for customers to win with Intel."

Tan's mentioning of Core Ultra "Panther Lake" processors arriving within the second half of this year aligns with prior official statements. Insiders posited that Panther Lake-H (PTL-H) mobile CPUs were delayed into 2026 due to issues with the Foundry's 18A process node, but an Intel executive dismissed these claims a few weeks ago. Interestingly, the firm's Chinese office outlined an "early 2026 volume launch" of "Panther Lake (18A)" chips during a mid-March AI PC press event. A presentation slide indicated that an Early Enablement Program (EEP) is expected to start in October; Team Blue's loose terminology likely classes the sending off of samples—to OEMs, for approval—as a "real" product launch.

Intel's Foundry Eyes NVIDIA and Broadcom as Clients for Future Growth

According to an investment bank UBS note, two industry titans—NVIDIA and Broadcom—are potential future clients that could significantly enhance Intel's Foundry business revenue. To revitalize Intel, newly appointed CEO Lip-Bu Tan reportedly aims to forge strategic alliances with two AI chip manufacturers. Tan, who assumed leadership earlier this month, is determined to rebuild the company's reputation by focusing on customer satisfaction and accelerating the development of its foundry business. UBS analyst Tim Arcuri suggests that while Broadcom might join the client roster, NVIDIA appears to be the more likely candidate. Rather than initially manufacturing NVIDIA's AI GPUs, Intel is expected to begin production with gaming GPUs. NVIDIA could even move to AI GPU production at Intel's fabs if satisfied.

Despite some early optimism, Intel's new CEO is now committed to addressing issues related to power consumption in Intel's manufacturing processes. UBS analyst Tim Arcuri noted that the firm is pushing hard to introduce a lower-power version of its 18A process, the so-called 18AP, which has reportedly struggled to meet energy requirements. Additionally, Intel is working to improve its advanced packaging techniques to rival Taiwan's TSMC CoWoS (S/L/R variants) technology, aiming to overcome packaging constraints that have slowed AI chip production. Analysts speculate that Intel might also become a secondary supplier to tech giant Apple. A promising partnership with Taiwan's United Microelectronics (UMC) could pave the way for Intel's chips to find their way into future Apple products. Whatever materializes, we are yet to see. Switching foundries from TSMC to Intel entirely is not possible for any of the aforementioned fabless designers, so it will likely be dual-sourcing at first, with some non-flagship SKUs getting the full port to Intel 18A.

Intel Vision 2025: CEO Lip-Bu Tan to Deliver Opening Keynote

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan will deliver an opening keynote at Intel Vision 2025 on March 31 in Las Vegas. The two-day event brings together Intel customers and partners from around the world to discuss opportunities to innovate across the compute continuum and foster collaboration that will shape the future of the industry.

The conference will showcase how Intel technologies are being used to enable new solutions and drive business success in the AI era. Attendees will explore the latest in AI PC innovation with industry-leading security and manageability, as well as advanced data center, edge and networking solutions tailored to meet the unique needs of customers looking to scale AI applications across the enterprise.

Initial Intel 18A Node Wafer Run Lands in Arizona Site, High-Volume Manufacturing Could Start Earlier Than Expected

Intel's 18A node, often referred to as Intel's silver lining, has just produced tangible result. In a LinkedIn post of Intel's engineering manager Pankaj Marria, we learn that Intel's 18A node is now being produced in initial wafer lots for testing and evaluation by Intel's customers. This means that Intel's 18A node PDK is officially in version 1.0, and customers are already using that PDK for testing of custom chips. "The Eagle has landed," noted the post, referring to the node development as a major milestone for a node developed and made in US. There were even posters with the same slogans being brought up, meaning that possible customers are also happy with inital test runs. With high-volume manufacturing slated for second half of 2025, we could even see 18A HVM going before initial targets.

Intel's leadership transition to CEO Lip-Bu Tan has overlapped with a recalibration of corporate messaging around the foundry business. Tan's internal communication explicitly frames Intel's strategy as a dual-track approach that maintains both product development and foundry services under unified corporate governance. This position counters speculation regarding potential foundry spinoff scenarios, though it doesn't categorically exclude future structural changes. Previous industry rumors had outlined potential joint venture configurations involving TSMC and major US semiconductor firms, including AMD, Broadcom, and NVIDIA, taking equity positions in a separate foundry entity. While such arrangements remain theoretically viable, Tan's emphasis on fab strategic importance aligns with predecessor Pat Gelsinger's manufacturing-centric vision, suggesting continuity in Intel's Foundry and Product model despite market pressure.

Intel's New CEO Lip-Bu Tan Reaffirms "World-Class Foundry" Vision, Casting Doubt on Spinoff Rumors

At the time of crisis for Intel and uncertainty with foundry goals, Intel has appointed a semiconductor veteran as its new Chief Executive Officer (CEO)—Lip-Bu Tan. In a letter to Intel employees, Lip-Bu Tan has quietly addressed Intel Foundry spinoff rumors, saying that his commitment as a CEO is to "restore Intel's position as a world-class products company, establish ourselves as a world-class foundry and delight our customers like never before." Hence, the foundry spinoff rumors are now not so certain. Previous industry rumors suggested that Intel may very well spin off its fabs entirely or get it in a joint venture that would see TSMC and US companies like AMD, Broadcom, and NVIDIA get a part of the say. That is still a possibility. However, Intel's new CEO understands the strategic importance of Intel's fabs, just like the previous CEO, Pat Gelsinger.

Intel moves a lot of volume with its products, most of that thanks to its internal manufacturing capacity. Without it, Intel would be forced to go to external fabs like Samsung and TSMC and deal with additional complexity, lead times, etc. With the 18A node, Intel plans to use it for its products and offer it to external customers. Some features like backside power delivery using PowerVia and RibbonFET are standout aspects that make its 18A node PDK much more attractive on paper than solutions from TSMC and Samsung. Keeping that technology and manufacturing ability inside Intel is strategically vital for both Intel and US-based advanced silicon manufacturing. The foundry has been burning a lot of cash, 13.4 billion in 2024 alone, but Intel expects it to be net positive by the end of 2027. After that, Intel's products and external customers should be keeping Intel's fab busy with enough revenue to offset losses in the coming years.
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