General Cryptocoin Discussion

[AusWolf]

Sunken cost fallacy is a helluva drug.

Not only that. A friend of mine lost £10k overnight while he peacefully slept through the Dogecoin crash.

 

[R-T-B]

Not only that. A friend of mine lost £10k overnight while he peacefully slept through the Dogecoin crash.

I know people who did that (well a bit less, but still a ton) and insisted on buying more the following morning.

I repeat my statement. Some people are too deep in to be helped, and they are largely holding the whole house up.

 

[AusWolf]

I know people who did that (well a bit less, but still a ton) and insisted on buying more the following morning.

I repeat my statement. Some people are too deep in to be helped, and they are largely holding the whole house up.

Ah, I see what you mean. At least my friend was clever enough not to invest any more (not that he had much left, but still).

 

[R-T-B]

Ah, I see what you mean. At least my friend was clever enough not to invest any more (not that he had much left, but still).

Yeah, a lot got out but some are just too deeply invested to ever admit how badly they've... well, been taken. A lot of them are still holding the whole act together around crypto I feel. That and of course, the large "whales" that manipulate the former group I just mentioned.

Hell I was once a crypto advocate but at some point you just gotta look at cause and effect and for sure personal economic losses don't help that equation. I think for those that fail to make that leap out though, it's some kind of psychological issue. Makes it kind of predatory really, but that's probably for another topic.

EDIT: And to be clear, I'm not saying every investor in crypto is "psychologically ill." I'm talking about those who lost the home and doubled down anyways. Certainly a bit of Sunken Cost Fallacy at minimum there.

 

[AusWolf]

Yeah, a lot got out but some are just too deeply invested to ever admit how badly they've... well, been taken. A lot of them are still holding the whole act together around crypto I feel. That and of course, the large "whales" that manipulate the former group I just mentioned.

Hell I was once a crypto advocate but at some point you just gotta look at cause and effect and for sure personal economic losses don't help that equation. I think for those that fail to make that leap out though, it's some kind of psychological issue. Makes it kind of predatory really, but that's probably for another topic.

EDIT: And to be clear, I'm not saying every investor in crypto is "psychologically ill." I'm talking about those who lost the home and doubles down anyways.

It's a weird world we live in where we make every law possible to protect the physically weak, but the exploitation of the psychologically weak is like drinking water.

As for crypto, I've always had a feeling that the bubble would eventually burst. I almost failed at physics in school, but even I remember that you can't create something out of nothing.

 

[trog100]

gambling is gambling you win sometimes but mostly you lose..

having said that i started mining crypto ( i also bought a bit) back in 2017 when mr frog was still a fan.. i have some bitcoin some eth and i am still in profit..

i stopped mining because in the UK power costs are simply too high to make it profitable..

trog

 

[80-watt Hamster]

So this impending recession. The indicators and contra-indicators continue to duke it out. When global money's tight, funds drift toward more reliable investments and away from risky stuff like crypto. But crypto continues to trend upward. Extended, long-form dead cat bounce?

 

[Solaris17]

But crypto continues to trend upward. Extended, long-form dead cat bounce?

I think it’s more in line with what RTB was saying. There are less players in general now so the few whales still holding on can make the current market look however they want.

 

[trog100]

the bottom line is bitcoin and eth are losing a lot of the volatility they used to have.. dare i say it.. they are no longer the high risk asset they used to be..

currently alt coins are just following bitcoin..

trog

 

[dragontamer5788]

So this impending recession. The indicators and contra-indicators continue to duke it out. When global money's tight, funds drift toward more reliable investments and away from risky stuff like crypto. But crypto continues to trend upward. Extended, long-form dead cat bounce?

At least in the short term, I'm thinking this upward movement is the Blackrock Bitcoin-ETF announcement.

GBTC has severe issues, notwithstanding the 2% fee and the fact that its not actually an ETF (money can go into the fund, but it can never escape). BITO is technically BTC futures, I dunno if that matters, but I guess some purists prefer a direct BTC holding.

That being said: SEC hasn't approved a spot-BTC yet, because SEC doesn't trust any market (or any market's price). Binance is obviously manipulated by Tether, and Coinbase has... erm... you know, those issues.

 

[ShiBDiB]

the bottom line is bitcoin and eth are losing a lot of the volatility they used to have

lol what?

I swear there's way too many crypto bros that spout off financial terms but have absolutely no idea what they're talking about. And it has cost a ton of people a shit load of money.

 

[defaultluser]

lol what?

I swear there's way too many crypto bros that spout off financial terms but have absolutely no idea what they're talking about. And it has cost a ton of people a shit load of money.

And Etherium , no to be left out has risen by 100% in the last 6 months, while dropping by almost half those gains during that same time-frame

 

[R-T-B]

You need to keep in mind that historically crypto volatility was even worse than this. I think that's all he was saying.

 

[AusWolf]

You need to keep in mind that historically crypto volatility was even worse than this. I think that's all he was saying.

Imo, whoever says crypto isn't as volatile as it used to be is being misled by the graphs and/or the sunken cost fallacy. Just because it seems to be more stable in the last X amount of time than the same X amount of time before, it doesn't mean it can't crash and you won't lose everything again. That's how it's volatile - it might seem stable in the short term, but it never really is.

 

[R-T-B]

Imo, whoever says crypto isn't as volatile as it used to be is being misled by the graphs and/or the sunken cost fallacy. Just because it seems to be more stable in the last X amount of time than the same X amount of time before, it doesn't mean it can't crash and you won't lose everything again. That's how it's volatile - it might seem stable in the short term, but it never really is.

That's a totally valid point of course. I'm just making a historical trend observation, there is no way I'd say that trend is certain to hold or advise investment. It could all go away gains wise tomorrow, with just one bill or tweet crypto doesn't like.

Also worthy of note is 100% swings of volatility is still AWFUL. Just less awful than the say, 1000% crazy psycho swings of yesteryear.

 

[trog100]

i think bitcoin and eth are losing a fair amount of their volatility.. i dont look at graphs and charts i just keep an eye on the bitcoin and eth price on a regular basis..

i see what i see.. other may see things differently..

trog

 

[R-T-B]

i think bitcoin and eth are losing a fair amount of their volatility.. i dont look at graphs and charts i just keep an eye on the bitcoin and eth price on a regular basis..

i see what i see.. other may see things differently..

trog

Well I mean stats aren't really something one can hold as a personal opinion, but you do you.

 

[lexluthermiester]

i think bitcoin and eth are losing a fair amount of their volatility..

WHAT?!? Um...

You were saying what now? Seriously, what do you call this? The numbers for both are all over the place! And this is just the 1year track! 3year looks worse. "Losing a fair amount of volatility" my hairy butt..

 

[trog100]

look at the three year chart lex.. the latter half looks considerably less volatile than the first half.. i did say losing not lost.. i expect the next six month to move steadily upwards with no great pull backs.. but then again i could be completely wrong it is just my oppinion..

longer term i expect bitcoin and eth to become more "respectable" and attract institutional money.. more institutional money means more stability.. but then again i could be wrong.. he he..

let the gamblers continue playing their games with the alt coins..

trog

 

[AusWolf]

look at the three year chart lex.. the latter half looks considerably less volatile than the first half.. i did say losing not lost.. i expect the next six month to move steadily upwards with no great pull backs.. but then again i could be completely wrong it is just my oppinion..

Charts or no charts, they can still crash and lose all value, even after a long period of relative stability - that's what "volatile" means. It's not statistics, but the possibility of high ups and low downs.

longer term i expect bitcoin and eth to become more "respectable" and attract institutional money.. more institutional money means more stability.. but then again i could be wrong.. he he..

I doubt it.

 

[lexluthermiester]

look at the three year chart lex.. the latter half looks considerably less volatile than the first half.. i did say losing not lost.. i expect the next six month to move steadily upwards with no great pull backs.. but then again i could be completely wrong it is just my oppinion..

longer term i expect bitcoin and eth to become more "respectable" and attract institutional money.. more institutional money means more stability.. but then again i could be wrong.. he he..

let the gamblers continue playing their games with the alt coins..

trog

As I said the 3year looks worse. I only looked at BTC and ETH. Everything else is a joke. Trog, that's some serious moose-muffins you're shoveling...


You all don't have to take my word for it, look it for yourselves.

 

[dragontamer5788]

https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/publications/mining_CCS.pdf

This picture in short.

This paper argues that without a block-reward, it is more economically advantageous to fork the transaction chains, rather than extending the longest chain. This suggests that as BTC halves, it eventually reaches a point where the "mining game" fails. Its more economically viable for miners to fork the chain rather than participating in the longest chain.

 

[cvaldes]

One thing that is certain is that world governments will impose more regulations on cryptos in the future. That implies that the wild gains in the early years of cryptos are likely behind us.

Particularly notable right now is the very low transaction volume of cryptos, including BTC and ETH. While there has been some price recovery, there's very little confidence in crypto as a whole hence the low volumes.

The problem with high exchange fees remains as always. With low transaction volumes, that puts the exchanges themselves at risk.

Cryptotokens are here to stay but the crypto landscape five years from will look vastly different from what it was five years ago. Bitcoin will be a little thicker around the waist, graying sideburns, more wrinkles, etc.

 

[AusWolf]

One thing that is certain is that world governments will impose more regulations on cryptos in the future. That implies that the wild gains in the early years of cryptos are likely behind us.

Particularly notable right now is the very low transaction volume of cryptos, including BTC and ETH. While there has been some price recovery, there's very little confidence in crypto as a whole hence the low volumes.

The problem with high exchange fees remains as always. With low transaction volumes, that puts the exchanges themselves at risk.

Cryptotokens are here to stay but the crypto landscape five years from will look vastly different from what it was five years ago. Bitcoin will be a little thicker around the waist, graying sideburns, more wrinkles, etc.

... and the loudest advocates will think twice before issuing their "crypto is the future" and "crypto is money free from governments" slogans.

 

[dragontamer5788]

SBF guilty on all counts after ~4 hours of deliberation by the jury.