The complete design was taped out in June 2017, with the first engineering samples of these being tested since last November. Yields are much more complex than just defects, it also comes down to thermals and reliability of various areas of the die. The problem with Intel 10nm is not defects, but getting enough dies which can operate on desired clocks. The launch is delayed because they can't make enough dies of good enough quality to make it profitable, that doesn't mean they have no such dies for testing.
You saw the minimal tweaks AMD did in Zen+, similarly, Intel can do small tweaks in their refinements. Massive delays to Ice Lake will allow Intel to do more of these ahead of release, they are certainly not sitting there doing nothing.
Intel haven't given any performance figures for Ice Lake yet, but if it brings similar cache improvements like Skylake-X/-SP in an even more refined form, that alone can give 3-4%. And if so, Ice Lake will be a larger overhaul than Skylake and Haswell. Overhauls can of course be more or less successful (just look at Bulldozer), but at least it's not a "Skylake 2". I would argue that your estimate of 5% IPC for Ice Lake gains is relatively conservative.