Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[R-T-B]

Re China and the CDC:

I mean given the CDC only operates in America, I don't think China would allow them in as we haven't even offered their services... assuming ASRock means the WHO, which I do believe is allowed in China in a limited sense. But my point is not that China is innocent, it's more that we are still guilty. Everyone who enables this to spread is as guilty as the orgin. That's how viruses work.

 

[HTC]

There's too much unknowns right now.

Notice the differences between Germany / Spain and USA / Iran: 940 more cases confirmed in Germany than Spain but Spain currently has over 16 times more deaths thus far, and a similar thing is happening with Iran VS USA, with almost the same number of cases confirmed but more than 5 times more deaths in Iran than in USA. Similar situation with the recovery numbers that are so vastly different between these 4 countries.

I know it can be partially explained by more VS less testing in those countries but i don't think it's JUST that, with more factors being @ play that we've yet to grasp: until we ascertain those other factors in our fight VS this virus, we'll continue to play catch-up instead of placing ourselves ahead of it.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Over 4000 deaths so far.

Italy has greatly overtaken China in fatalities. No one else is even coming close. I feel for the Italian people. However, I still stand by my theory that there is something different about that nation that is making them more vulnerable than anywhere else. This is a mystery that needs to be solved.

 

[HTC]

Italy has greatly overtaken China in fatalities. No one else is even coming close. I feel for the Italian people. However, I still stand by my theory that there is something different about that nation that is making them more vulnerable than anywhere else. This is a mystery that needs to be solved.

It's because their hospital system is so severely overwhelmed and they were literally forced to choose who to try and save, thus condemning to death those "unlucky enough not to be chosen".

Worse still, just because they end up choosing X, Y or Z over A, B, or C doesn't mean they succeeded so, most likely, A, B and C died but that doesn't mean X, Y and Z were all saved.

Fully agree.

 

[lexluthermiester]

It's because their hospital system is so severely overwhelmed and they were literally forced to choose who to try and save, thus condemning to death those "unlucky enough not to be chosen".

That has been mentioned and while I agree it is a variable in the problem, it is not the whole problem and likely not a major part. The healthcare systems of many a nation have been overwhelmed, yet they are not experiencing the massive mortality percentages Italy has. The same can be said of Iran and Spain. No one except China has even gotten close to those numbers but they have a huge population so those numbers are still a low percentage of the total.

Worse still, just because they end up choosing X, Y or Z over A, B, or C doesn't mean they succeeded so, most likely, A, B and C died but that doesn't mean X, Y and Z were all saved.

Good point!

 

[HTC]

That has been mentioned and while I agree it is a variable in the problem, it is not the whole problem and likely not a major part. The healthcare systems of many a nation have been overwhelmed, yet they are not experiencing the massive mortality percentages Italy has. The same can be said of Iran and Spain. No one except China has even gotten close to those numbers but they have a huge population so those numbers are still a low percentage of the total.


Good point!

But not to the extent of Italy's. The number of cases in Italy is behind only that of China and, currently, is more than double that of anywhere else in Europe so they are, @ the very least, twice more overwhelmed than anywhere else.

 

[lexluthermiester]

But not to the extent of Italy's. The number of cases in Italy is behind only that of China and, currently, is more than double that of anywhere else in Europe so they are, @ the very least, twice more overwhelmed than anywhere else.

The problem with that conclusion is that Italy's heathcare system is considered to be on par with the rest of the EU and the US. Spain and Iran likewise. There's got to be more at play in that area of the world. The situation and the numbers are telling us the story, but we're missing something.

 

[HTC]

The problem with that conclusion is that Italy's heathcare system is considered to be on par with the rest of the EU and the US. Spain and Iran likewise. There's got to be more at play in that area of the world. The situation and the numbers are telling us the story, but we're missing something.

Agreed.

 

[Gmr_Chick]

So far, according to my local Health Agency, Stanislaus County has 5 confirmed cases and 0 deaths. I worry for my mom who is 65 and has suffered from high blood pressure for years, and was recently diagnosed with diabetes (which she's been controlling like a champ so she doesn't have to take pills or get insulin shots), and my sister who is 10 years older than me, but has had lung problems her entire life. I have them too, but not to the extent that she does (pneumonia and bronchitis happen to her a lot). I guess the good thing is we all live together, so we're able to watch out for each other.

Stay safe, stay sane, stay healthy, my peeps

 

[lexluthermiester]

Agreed.

What stands out, to me at least, is that Portugal is in the same area of the world, has a similarly solid heathcare system and reacted in a similar time-frame. Yet you folks are nowhere near the numbers of the rest of that area of the world.

 

[HTC]

What stands out, to me at least, is that Portugal is in the same area of the world, has a similarly solid heathcare system and reacted in a similar time-frame. Yet you folks are nowhere near the numbers of the rest of that area of the world.

I beg to differ: the number of ICUs over here is roughly 1 / 3rd that of Italy's per 100K people. It it ever hit us the same way it's doing to Italy, we're ROYALLY screwed.

In fact, due to the financial crisis of 2008, we were forced to ask FMI for help with our Deficit and we're still under the effects of generalized cutbacks enforced on the public institutions, including healthcare, to help contain the Deficit problem.

Currently, we have 1020 confirmed cases, with 7 deaths and 5 recoveries. HOWEVER, today's numbers haven't been published yet.

 

[lexluthermiester]

I beg to differ: the number of ICUs over here is roughly 1 / 3rd that of Italy's per 100K people.

Intersting. I was reading an article on Reuters that mentioned Portugal in the same breath as the general EU as far as healthcare capabilities. Let's go with your info though. Portugal is still in much better shape than Spain and Italy only a few hundred miles away.

My theory is this: Italy has some form of environmental and biochemical factors playing a role in the severity of the virus impact on that nation. The same is likely in Spain and Iran.

The US, Japan and the British Isles were among the first exposed and somewhat slow to respond, yet nations are not getting hit nearly as hard.

 

[the54thvoid]

Spain's numbers (deaths) are now up:

From 767 - 1002 - 1326, over the past three days. This is pure conjecture but in some places, if the infection began in closed spaces (apartment blocks) and spread in places where family is community, it could explain the physical nature of the spread. In other places, more remote, spread would be contained by simple geography - isolation by way of travel. Either way, it's pretty obvious the death toll in Europe will be high.

 

[HTC]

Intersting. I was reading an article on Reuters that mentioned Portugal in the same breath as the general EU as far as healthcare capabilities. Let's go with your info though. Portugal is still in much better shape than Spain and Italy only a few hundred miles away.

My theory is this: Italy has some form of environmental and biochemical factors playing a role in the severity of the virus impact on that nation. The same is likely in Spain and Iran.

The US, Japan and the British Isles were among the first exposed and somewhat slow to respond, yet nations are not getting hit nearly as hard.

This data is from 2012:

The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe - Intensive Care Medicine

Purpose To quantify the numbers of critical care beds in Europe and to understand the differences in these numbers between countries when corrected for population size and gross domestic product. Methods Prospective data collection of critical care bed numbers for each country in Europe from...

link.springer.com

Compare the differences between Italy and Portugal: we are far FAR down in that graph.

 

[Vya Domus]

I know it can be partially explained by more VS less testing in those countries but i don't think it's JUST that, with more factors being @ play that we've yet to grasp: until we ascertain those other factors in our fight VS this virus, we'll continue to play catch-up instead of placing ourselves ahead of it.

The disease is the constant everywhere, the health care and government measures aren't. It's as simple as that.

Regardless, maybe this is going to be an alarm signal for people to live a more healthier lifestyle. Yes, it's sad that smoking, heart disease, diabetes, etc puts you at risk and those are the people that are going to be most affected but these death tolls would have been greatly diminished if only people took more care of themselves.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's cases were updated:

1280 confirmed cases, with 12 deaths and 5 recovered

 

[Outback Bronze]

but we're missing something.

Could it be this? : Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.

 

[HTC]

Could it be this? : Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.

It's certainly a factor but i don't think it's the only one: something else is going on that we've yet to identify.

Portugal's 1st cases seem to have been "imported" from Italy: Portuguese people that vacationed there in February. The theory that Italy has been seeing a deadlier strain of this virus doesn't hold much ground because, though our numbers are escalating, we're nowhere near Italy's numbers, for now.

It could be as simple as the socializing aspect that may be more predominant in Italy than in other countries, thus making the consequences in Italy more severe: this is however a speculation on my part.

 

[Vayra86]

Well, in the UK, our PM has just announced all pubs, restaurants and bars must close tonight. Gyms, Theatres, Leisure Centres etc must close as soon as reasonably possible. Up to 80% of wages will be covered (to a max of £2500 per month) by the government.

Holy moly. That's our lockdown.

Yep same as over here... good to see they are not going total closure as they did in some other places.

It will take awhile before you see any result. Everything has been closed here for 6 days now. I fully expect our rapid daily increase in positive cases will not slow down until we see 2 to 3 weeks total of closures.

6 days!? What is that gonna do? Incubation is 14 days alone already...

Could it be this? : Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.

This plus overcrowded hospitals and no management for crisis and IC beds with breathing equipment. The result is high death toll. No need to dig much deeper...

 

[HTC]

Portugal has taken a few steps in an effort to mitigate the consequences of this virus

- businesses will be granted access to loans from the government but ONLY IF they don't fire people.
- fiscal obligations will be shortened / delayed for 3 months
- no forced evictions allowed for the next 3 months
- housing rental will be granted automatic renovation for 3 months
- a bunch of other measures

 

[lexluthermiester]

Could it be this? : Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, with a median age of about 46 years old. Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65 – heightening the population’s risk with regards to the novel coronavirus currently spreading through Italy.

This could be part of the equation.

Incubation is 14 days alone already...

It's more than that. Estimations, depending on where you look, are anywhere from 3 weeks to 10 weeks. This means that the infected likely don't know it because they are asymptomatic and will not show symptoms for perhaps a month or more.

This data is from 2012:

The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe - Intensive Care Medicine

Purpose To quantify the numbers of critical care beds in Europe and to understand the differences in these numbers between countries when corrected for population size and gross domestic product. Methods Prospective data collection of critical care bed numbers for each country in Europe from...

link.springer.com

Compare the differences between Italy and Portugal: we are far FAR down in that graph.

While that is fair, that was 8 years ago. I wonder what the situation is like currently?

 

[R0H1T]

The shutdown lockdown will likely last at least a quarter or two, at the very least. We may have some restrictions being eased off temporarily, but that'll not be the norm the way it's spreading right now! Heck there's a mini curfew drill tomorrow over here, imagine virtually 1.3+ billion being told to stay at home

 

[Lindatje]

Here in the Netherlands they have cut back a lot on healthcare for many years and it is also privatized.
and now that manifests itself. I don't know how it went in other countries in the EU? Maybe that's just the difference with eg China.

 

[HTC]

While that is fair, that was 8 years ago. I wonder what the situation is like currently?

Considering until much more recently we had to contend with TROIKA due to our Deficit problem, i'd expect it to actually be worse than back in 2012 but i can't be sure, obviously.

EDIT

Actually, i think the reduction in our healthcare could be more of personnel rather than of equipment.

 

[TheLostSwede]

Here in the Netherlands they have cut back a lot on healthcare for many years and it is also privatized.
and now that manifests itself. I don't know how it went in other countries in the EU? Maybe that's just the difference with eg China.

It seems to be the same in most of Europe. Everything was supposed to get more effective and save money, but it seems quite the opposite happened. Too many outside managers and for profit doesn't work well when it comes to healthcare.