Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[rtwjunkie]

Quick stats check, Louisiana is 52k square miles, with under 5 million souls. Scotland is 30k square miles and over 5 million souls (322 positive tests and 6 deaths). Population density (you'd think) could be a mitigating factor. Big cities will have more containment problems as well. Most of my country, north of the Glasgow-Edinburgh line is actually quite low for people per mile.

True that! Most of our infections are in the most populated section of the state.

6 days!? What is that gonna do? Incubation is 14 days alone already...

Apparently you didnt’t read the rest of what you actually quoted, LOL. I in fact SAID that it would be 2 to 3 weeks MORE to see a difference, and this was all in response to @the54thvoid saying their near lockdown just started, so it will be awhile before they see a difference.

 

[HTC]

Nearly 7000 more confirmed cases and nearly 800 more deaths from COVID-19 in Italy since yesterday.

Italy is by far the most hit country with this virus

The effects of Italy's lockdown simply can't take effect fast enough

DAMN

 

[rtwjunkie]

Well, Louisiana saw a steep jump today. About 3,200 tests have been completed. The number of positive infections jumped in 24 hours from 584 to 763, and deaths from 14 to 20.

Part of the steep climb I conjecture is because Friday and Saturday Louisiana started drive-thru testing for healthcare workers and law enforcement exhibiting symptoms. That’s the concerning part. Southeast Louisiana’s health system is days from being overburdened and health care workers may be starting to become ill.

The state has their own map that is pretty active as well as keeping twice daily number updates.

Louisiana Coronavirus | La Dept. of Health

The Louisiana Department of Health protects and promotes health and ensures access to medical, preventive and rehabilitative services for all citizens of the State of Louisiana.

ldh.la.gov

 

[Gmr_Chick]

Spain's numbers (deaths) are now up:

From 767 - 1002 - 1326, over the past three days. This is pure conjecture but in some places, if the infection began in closed spaces (apartment blocks) and spread in places where family is community, it could explain the physical nature of the spread. In other places, more remote, spread would be contained by simple geography - isolation by way of travel. Either way, it's pretty obvious the death toll in Europe will be high.

Maybe that could help explain why when it comes to the US, New York is definitely taking the brunt of this. They had over 8,000 confirmed cases last time I looked, far more than any other state. Could the high number be because the city is so densely populated? (apartments, people living on top of each other, etc.)

This could be part of the equation.

Estimations, depending on where you look, are anywhere from 3 weeks to 10 weeks. This means that the infected likely don't know it because they are asymptomatic and will not show symptoms for perhaps a month or more.

Where are you getting 10 weeks from? Both the US CDC and the WHO say the incubation period is anywhere from 1 to 14 days, with 5 days being the average. That's 2 weeks, not 3, and quite a difference from 10 weeks

 

[biffzinker]

7 new cases in Alaska, 21 total. Two are from travel to the lower 48 states. The other 5 aren't related to travel.

DHSS announces seven new cases of COVID-19 in Alaska

The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services announced on Saturday, March 21st that seven new cases have been detected for COVID-19.

www.ktuu.com

 

[Vayra86]

Maybe that could help explain why when it comes to the US, New York is definitely taking the brunt of this. They had over 8,000 confirmed cases last time I looked, far more than any other state. Could the high number be because the city is so densely populated? (apartments, people living on top of each other, etc.)



Where are you getting 10 weeks from? Both the US CDC and the WHO say the incubation period is anywhere from 1 to 14 days, with 5 days being the average. That's 2 weeks, not 3, and quite a difference from 10 weeks

Not everyone is infected at the same time so there is a spread and if you dont lock down until the last groups is past incubation, it can easily start all
over again.

10 weeks, 12 weeks... I think its a realistic scenario and even after that time we probably should still do our part to minimize risk...

 

[HTC]

Yesterday @ 9:21 AM GMT, Spain had 1093 deaths:

Today, @ 11:38 AM GMT, Spain has 1725 deaths:

Granted: Spain updated their numbers AFTER i posted the pic showing those 1093 deaths, but still ... if left unchecked, Spain could rapidly get to Italy's numbers

MONSTER DAMN

Portugal's numbers have not yet been updated since yesterday: as shown in the pic, they stand @ 1280 known cases, with 12 deaths and 5 recovered. Considering the total population we have (over 10 million people) but #20 in the world for confirmed cases ... this does NOT bode well

 

[Vayra86]

Yesterday @ 9:21 AM GMT, Spain had 1093 deaths:

View attachment 148881

Today, @ 11:38 AM GMT, Spain has 1725 deaths:

View attachment 148882

Granted: Spain updated their numbers AFTER i posted the pic showing those 1093 deaths, but still ... if left unchecked, Spain could rapidly get to Italy's numbers

MONSTER DAMN

Portugal's numbers have not yet been updated since yesterday: as shown in the pic, they stand @ 1280 known cases, with 12 deaths and 5 recovered. Considering the total population we have (over 10 million people) but #20 in the world for confirmed cases ... this does NOT bode well

Careful now. You are forgetting the element of time. Each country started testing and responding at a different time so they will also have their curve in a different time frame. There are also differences between the quality of testing and counting.

Just keep calm and minimize risk. Nothing more you can do to support your country atm.

 

[sepheronx]

At least other nations are sending Virologists and equipment to help Italy.

 

[HTC]

Careful now. You are forgetting the element of time. Each country started testing and responding at a different time so they will also have their curve in a different time frame. There are also differences between the quality of testing and counting.

Just keep calm and minimize risk. Nothing more you can do to support your country atm.

True.

EDIT

Update to Portugal's numbers was just released by authorities: 1600 cases, with 14 deaths and 5 recovered.

 

[P4-630]

Update today: The Netherlands as of today: 4204 infected total, 179 died (age 59~97).

 

[rtwjunkie]

Overnight Louisiana inched up from 763 to 837. Deaths are still at 20. It is so far, the smallest 12 hour increase here.

As I suspected yesterday, the increase of testing, mostly on healthcare and first responders is responsible for the sharp increase in cases yesterday:

Louisiana coronavirus test results pour in, and positive results top 800

The number of cases of coronavirus in Louisiana jumped again from 763 to 837 on Sunday morning as the Louisiana Dept. of Health reports another bump in the number of

www.nola.com

 

[HTC]

Despite the update from Italy still being a bad one, with 5560 new cases, 651 more deaths but 952 recovered, i believe Italy's lockdown measures are FINALLY starting to take effect because it's the 1st time the numbers are SMALLER than the day before, instead of a substantial increase like all the days before.

EDIT

USA is rising quite rapidly: over 5000 new cases reported in the last 10 minutes.

DAMN

EDIT #2

1000 more new cases in USA just now: it seriously does NOT look good

EDIT #3

Something went wrong with the number of USA new cases because they dropped by over 4000: no idea what happened.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Let's keep proper perspective. The USA has a population of over 320,000,000. These are not surprising numbers. In fact I was expecting much more.

On the good news side of things, Italy now has much more recovered cases than deaths! I say that is a good sign.

 

[biffzinker]

1000 more new cases in USA just now: it seriously does NOT look good

I'm wondering if we'll ever get the spread contained before or after a vaccine is hopefully found. I try to stay to updated on how it's going but then prefer not to look at how bad it's turning out. Mostly trying to keep an eye on Alaska, and where family is the majority in Michigan, and my one aunt/uncle in California on my step dad's side.

 

[HTC]

Let's keep proper perspective. The USA has a population of over 320,000,000. These are not surprising numbers. In fact I was expecting much more.

On the good news side of things, Italy now has much more recovered cases than deaths! I say that is a good sign.

Well: it appears there's been some cross communication because the reported new case numbers for USA just dropped by over 4000. Better edit, AGAIN, my previous post.

You are right.

 

[Flanker]

Coronavirus: What will alert level 4 mean for NZ?

New Zealand will move to Covid-19 alert level 4 in 48 hours.

www.nzherald.co.nz

102 cases in New Zealand. I doubt our healthcare system can deal with an outbreak at all

 

[Space Lynx]

Can someone explain to me what the recovered number means in these graphs? I thought vast majority of people that get it auto recover within 14 days, so why I even have that on the graph? and if not, why is the quarantine only listed as 14 days...

 

[Flanker]

Can someone explain to me what the recovered number means in these graphs? I thought vast majority of people that get it auto recover within 14 days, so why I even have that on the graph? and if not, why is the quarantine only listed as 14 days...

It's probably different in some regions, but generally it means they are tested negative after being confirmed to have been infected.

 

[biffzinker]

Now were up to 32 in Alaska, 7 more in Anchorage, 1 in Mat-Su/Brough, and one in Juneau.

According to DHSS, one of the Anchorage cases was travel-related outside of Alaska. The remaining cases are not known to be travel related at this time.

“At least two of the new Anchorage cases that we are investigating have no clearly identified contact with a confirmed case,” said Dr. Joe McLaughlin, Alaska’s State Epidemiologist. “This indicates that community transmission of COVID-19 appears to be occurring in the Anchorage area.”

Community spread in the Anchorage area includes where I am at. I think I'll be digging out one of the N95 face masks from in the garage to wear too work on Tuesday since I'm in contact with the general public. If the company doesn't tolerate me wearing the mask then I'm out. It'll hurt me in the financial sense but I'd rather be protected.

I feel bad for my one aunt in Jackson, MI. She's a bit younger than my Mom but old age puts her at disadvantage.

10 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed by DHSS, security heightened at JBER

The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services confirmed 10 new cases of COVID-19 in three Alaska communities, and JBER has declared a public health emergency and implemented a series of security and public health measures to mitigate the spread of coronavirus.

www.ktuu.com

 

[HTC]

Can someone explain to me what the recovered number means in these graphs? I thought vast majority of people that get it auto recover within 14 days, so why I even have that on the graph? and if not, why is the quarantine only listed as 14 days...

Dunno about other countries but, over here in Portugal, a COVID-19 patient is only considered cured after having two separate tests, 72 hours apart from each other, coming back negative.

Currently, we have 1600 confirmed cases, of which 169 are hospitalized, with 41 of those in ICUs: this means 1431 of the cases are people being watched @ their respective homes because they exibit only mild symptoms, and are under quarantine for the duration of the infection, until being considered cured.

This is assuming the 1600 number is the CURRENT number of cases and not the TOTAL number since the beginning of the outbreak, otherwise that 1431 is actually lower because it doesn't account for 14 dead nor 5 recovered.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Infected -> Recovered OR Dead

When it's truly over, there won't be any infection left, just recovered and dead.

Even if someone test positive, they may never have any symptoms because their immune system fought it off. 14 days without symptoms is an automatic recovered because they're believed to no longer be infectious.

 

[HTC]

Infected -> Recovered OR Dead

When it's truly over, there won't be any infection left, just recovered and dead.

Even if someone test positive, they may never have any symptoms because their immune system fought it off. 14 days without symptoms is an automatic recovered because they're believed to no longer be infectious.

Isn't that a seriously BAD gamble?

 

[Gmr_Chick]

The thing that's throwing me for a loop about this whole thing is, here in the US, testing is only being done for people who display symptoms, are older, or have compromised immune systems. I get that. What I don't get, however, is...let's say "Bob" gets what he believes to be a normal cold. He's feverish, coughing, gets headaches. Still, he doesn't want to take any chances and asks his doctor for a COVID-19 test. The problem is, "Bob" is unable to trace his contacts back before he got sick, so even though he's showing symptoms of what may or may not be COVID-19, his doctor refuses to "waste" a test on what very well may be "just a cold".

BUT THERE'S NO WAY TO TRULY RULE OUT COVID-19 WITHOUT GETTING TESTED! More tests need to become available so that EVERYONE who so much as has a cough or any of the other symptoms is able to get tested -- and treated -- accordingly.

 

[Vayra86]

Isn't that a seriously BAD gamble?

Its an economical gamble, at least in part. You can't go around testing the entire population continuously.

If you really think you are going to get your test done on request you've got another thing coming. Especially because symptoms are similar to a common cold. Not happening. Imagine the cost of it. We don't want to waste that much time and effort testing the vast majority of negatives. The net effect is also non existant. The moment you walk out the doctor's door you could have been infected by someone else.

That is why I am also saying these lockdowns are not going to be over anytime soon. The most effective way to let this die out is to work from both ends; minimize risk for the vast majority with mild or 'unnoticed' status (Or may not have anything at all), trace the big infection sources and treat the severe cases. This allows us to prolong the status quo and not push healthcare systems over the edge, until we have a long term solution / vaccine. Or lacking a vaccine, we might need to prolong reduced social life for several years to build herd immunity, slowly allowing larger parts of the populace to get back to normal life. The latter is still not preferable though. All things considered its clear that we are going to have to accept this virus exists in our lives and we need to take measures to combat it long term.