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Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

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I doubt lex is going to change his mind, though as he & the US will likely find out that when this "flu" runs its course across the globe, it will have killed millions in the wake! Of course it hasn't even hit the poorest nations much yet, for instance undivided India (pre independence) had about ~18 million causalities due to the Spanish flu. That's the lower end of the estimate, the upper end is about 2x so you can imagine what it can do in the rest of the world, yeah right another "flu" :rolleyes:
I have been comparing the virus performance numbers of COVID19 to the performance numbers of the flu, both viral in nature and both resulting in a mortality rate. That is where the comparison ends. Try to understand the context there.
 
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Not true and that number is VERY easy to calculate.
Currently in the United States;
55,200 cases
800 fatalities
That is approx 1.4% mortality rate. This is still FAR less deadly than ALL of the following, which everyone needs to carefully review for some proper perspective;
Can you tell me why my rough ballpark of 10-30X more deadly is incorrect?
Based on your own figures, it is therefore 14x more deadly. Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of <.1%.
Furthermore, the situation is worse if considering worldwide data, the worldwide mortality rate is ~4%.
Total cases as of Mar 25, 2020: 446,703
Total deaths: 19,805
Mortality rate is 4.4%
 
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People are not taking this as seriously as they should of been. That's our down fall in the end, the worst is yet to come. That's all I'm saying in this thread. Go ahead, and ridicule me.
 
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I have been comparing the virus performance numbers of COVID19 to the performance numbers of the flu, both viral in nature and both resulting in a mortality rate. That is where the comparison ends. Try to understand the context there.
Can you show your work, please?

What is the math that makes mortality rate of the flu better than the US or the world's values? Here is where my math comes from...

Flu = ~34M infected and 55k deaths = 0.1% (sourced from the phanbuey link)
corona US = 51k positive 675 deaths = 1.32% (my link you put in the first post)
corona world = 441k confirmed effected, 19.7k deaths = 4.4% (your link in the first post)

It seems fair to say you DON'T believe hospitals will get overrun and death rates will rise before then inevitably fall? Is that correct? What facts (must be supported) make you feel this way? Is it the fact that COVID-19 is 2-3x more contagious? The fact that our gov't acted in a timely manner on social distancing (a few states did, not the gov't to be clear)? What is it that made you say such a thing??

What are sooooooooooooooooo many missing, Lex, that you are not?

lol, this!!! I'm late to the party, but.......
 
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That will be the last of the insults, passive aggressive or otherwise. Keep comments civilized or I will ask the mods to issue thread-bans.


Opinion.


Your links do not prove or even greatly support your argument which is why I ignored them.


Make no mistake about Lex...there is absolutely nothing passive aggressive about it...I called a spade a spade (for the record, a moderator liked that post calling your thoughts selfish). That said, I won't berate you with that point further... the evidence is there for all to read. ;)

My links both prove and supported what I said. You can't even take the time to say what it didn't prove.

You don't even address the points man, you get all hurt then take your ball and go home. Show us the light! Just lex or any random forum member posting just spouting off "fact - xxxx, conclusion - xxxxx" doesn't cut it. I'd love to work with you, but you are making it impossible with your replies sometimes. It's a shame...

EDIT: How can anyone have a discussion when someone brings up a counter point and you blow it off? I used phanbuey's numbers (that you support) and nary a mention of that.............

This is my experience with Lex as well. On and off ignore list twice. This does make it a lot easier to make up my mind.

I kerp making the mistake to think the guy changes, but nope, you exchange arguments and all you get is a wall of 'no merit', 'opinion' or just plain ignoring a reply with info that does not suit the narrative of the day.

@the54thvoid I do wonder now why we have lex as OP of precisely this fact based topic at this moment in time. Sonething to think about, even just in light of doing your social duty in presenting factual info that does NOT cost lives. Not saying you are responsible for that btw... but is this what TPU wants I do wonder.

Because that is the point we are really at right now... Its becoming borderline irresponsible.
 
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I haven't posted here in a while, and it sucks that a community like TPU is so divided on how to tackle with this challenge to society, I see friends of mine on both sides of this argument, and some make some good points, some, I have to honestly say I disagree with.

I work in the health field, and I'm considered an "essential worker" so I have to continue providing services to my patients during this crisis. I have parents in their 70s, and a 10yr old and a 8 week old baby, so you could say I'm exposed to this threat on all ends of the spectrum.

I have to tell you, as I post this from work, I'm petrified to come to work, getting ready every morning requires all the effort I can summon, just to leave my house and expose myself and family to this virus. Even taking all the precautions at work, this virus is so contagious, and there are so many unknowns that even wearing a full P100 mask and full PPE I am scared to bring this disease with me home, to my wife and kids.

I can't even fathom seeing my parents, or inlaws at this moment, my dad has beat cancer, twice, and he changed his life and is healthier now than he was the first time he was diagnosed with cancer, I beg him every day to minimize his exposure and not go out until the crisis is under control.

Please don't be so callous and think that this is just another factor to add to the list of morbidity causes out there, I can't bear to think any members of my family will pass away because they were exposed to this illness and their health and age factors make them die before their time.

I almost lost my dad twice before, and he fought and conquered cancer, it was so hard to see and to think this stupid virus could end his life in a matter of weeks brings tears to my eyes.

I beg of you, don't just disregard this pandemic, don't be so callous and think you are immune to it, yes, most of you are young and healthy, and probably would only have minor flu symptoms, but when you have to deal with the reality of losing a family member on a daily basis because of your occupation, things take a whole different perspective, if you don't mind catching the disease, at least think of other people around you, don't spread it to people who are already vulnerable, and more at risk.

Unfortunately life won't be the same, and statistics alone lead me to the sad conclusion that more than one of us will be affected in one way or another by the pandemic, please stay safe.

Just my two cents, only if we work in one united front we will lower the chances of people dying unnecessarily, don't put others risk, I wish I had that choice.
 
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There are far more recovered people than dead people.
Still far too many dead people in a short period.

No shut downs, anywhere in the world, have proven effective in preventing or slowing the spread of this virus.
Wuhan.

Because the human immune system is successful fighting this virus in combination with it spreading to far to be effectively stopped by national isolation's, it is logical to conclude that such efforts are a complete waste of time.
Wuhan.

I have been comparing the virus performance numbers of COVID19 to the performance numbers of the flu, both viral in nature and both resulting in a mortality rate. That is where the comparison ends. Try to understand the context there.
It's been said time and time again that the death rate isn't the bigger problem. It's the sustained strain on hospitals. It's when they go over capacity that you really start seeing those deaths go up. It happened in Italy, it's happening in Spain. It'll happen in New York. That's when families get asked to let their loved ones die because they need that ventilator to save someone else that has a better chance of surviving.
And the only reason China didn't have as many deaths is because they built a freakin' massive hospital on site and the aggressive quarantine measures.
 

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Let me jump in with some new numbers for Louisiana. We grew in the last 24 hours by about a third to 1,795 positve, and 65 deaths. Those grew by about a third as well.
 
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I can't speak for the other mods but I'll not issue thread bans for mild disagreements. @lexluthermiester is entitled to his view - it is exactly that, a view. All of us have views on this virus and the efect it is having and the impact govt. decisions will have on the economy. There is an argument to be had on both fronts. No population of humans will behave as a coherent 100% entity, we're not a fricking Borg collective (cue tennis memes - but no, don't, we'll delete them).

The thread is so far running as you'd expect. Just keep the niggling personal comments down. As a mod, I've learned it's not really my opinion that counts. So I try to listen to others, especially those in the past I've really disagreed with. Everyone has an opinion and as a science graduate, unfortunately, even science can be used to defend both sides of an argument. As long as you're willing to ignore the 'majority' viewpoint, of course.

And I'm not cleaning up. It's your trash people, pick it up yourselves and self-reflect. We're moderators, not baby-sitters. I'll step in when you're being right pissy to one another.

:toast:
 
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My observation is that the infected/deaths ratio is very low at the beginning - because like doctors that work with these patients say that it takes some time for the severe symptoms to develop.
So yes you might see a huge increase in infected numbers but low numbers of deaths - but after a week or so those who got ill in that huge spike of infections overwhelm the hospitals.

That is why IMO the NY numbers look very scary and (I hope I'm wrong) the effects of that will be seen in 5-7 days.
Spain was quite similar at the beginning - high and very fast growing infected numbers with low death numbers. Well now you can see the effects of that.
 
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My observation is that the infected/deaths ratio is very low at the beginning - because like doctors that work with these patients say that it takes some time for the severe symptoms to develop.
So yes you might see a huge increase in infected numbers but low numbers of deaths - but after a week or so those who got ill in that huge spike of infections overwhelm the hospitals.

That is why IMO the NY numbers look very scary and (I hope I'm wrong) the effects of that will be seen in 5-7 days.
Spain was quite similar at the beginning - high and very fast growing infected numbers with low death numbers. Well now you can see the effects of that.

Yeah I"ve read around day 8-10 it can suddenly take a turn for the worse. From mildly symptomatic to straight to ICU.
 

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My observation is that the infected/deaths ratio is very low at the beginning - because like doctors that work with these patients say that it takes some time for the severe symptoms to develop.
So yes you might see a huge increase in infected numbers but low numbers of deaths - but after a week or so those who got ill in that huge spike of infections overwhelm the hospitals.

That is why IMO the NY numbers look very scary and (I hope I'm wrong) the effects of that will be seen in 5-7 days.
Spain was quite similar at the beginning - high and very fast growing infected numbers with low death numbers. Well now you can see the effects of that.

Yeah, this is the problem. Once you get a spike from a population dense location, the numbers climb pretty fast. Spain deaths have now also climbed higher than China's. 2nd only to Italy.
 
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Oregon broke down age groups. Would like to see hospitalized numbers for age group...
IMG_20200325_151443.jpg
 
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Oregon broke down age groups. Would like to see hospitalized numbers for age group...View attachment 149345
Scarry stuff, that's actually more useful statistics to my mind then how many die, look how many end up in hospital, not good, with the dire state of testing for it in any way Still in most countries it doesn't paint a good picture.
 
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266105476
Positives^^ Deaths^^ Negative results ^^


Why were so many people tested? Paramedics, EMTs, police, hospital workers, etc?

Not asking to get a real response, but that many tests with a negative result seems very wasteful.
 

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Sort by death rate %.
See also https://www.statista.com/statistics...ies-deaths-most-affected-countries-worldwide/

Confirmed cases Number of deaths Death rate (%)
Italy69,1766,8209.86
Iran24,8111,9347.79
Spain42,0582,9917.11
United Kingdom8,1644235.18
Netherlands5,5852774.96
France22,6351,1024.87
China81,5913,2854.03
Japan1,193433.6
Belgium4,2691222.86
Ecuador1,082272.5
Turkey1,872442.35
Brazil2,247462.05
Denmark1,718321.86
Sweden2,299401.74
United States55,2258021.45
Portugal2,362331.4
South Korea9,1371261.38
Switzerland9,8771321.34
Canada2,792270.97
Malaysia1,796170.95
Luxembourg1,09980.73
Pakistan1,00070.7
Austria5,283300.57
Ireland1,32970.53
Germany32,9911590.48
Norway2,866130.45
Australia2,31880.35
Israel2,03050.25
Czechia1,39430.22
 
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I just have to get this off my chest and then I'm out.

Lex, seriously. STOP comparing this virus to the flu. It. Is. Not. The. Flu. If you MUST compare it to something, you really should be comparing it to COVID-19's "cousins" SARS and MERS, as they are far, far more similar to COVID-19 than influenza.

Seriously, just stop it already.
 

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This is a kind of virus that can mess you up pretty good.

When I was 20, I suffered some kind of a respiratory infection, been in the hospital for a few weeks. My stamina never been the same ever since, and I work out on a regular basis.

COVID-19 targets your respiratory system, very infectious, and might kill a person like me.

Injured organs don't heal to 100 percent. Always remain vulnerable.

Hell, injured my hip 2 years ago, been fixed in a surgery by top-rated sports surgeon, still vulnerable and will never be the same.
 
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Then there is the question of what hasn't China told us about the virus their covering up.
 
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Then there is the question of what hasn't China told us about the virus their covering up.

This is something i want to know as well... those numbers look 100% fake (not saying that they are, they just look it given everyone else). Im sure there is more to this all that will come out in the future.
 
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This is something i want to know as well... those numbers look 100% fake (not saying that they are, they just look it given everyone else). Im sure there is more to this all that will come out in the future.

While i agree, this particular subject is best left for the other COVID-19 topic.
 
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I just have to get this off my chest and then I'm out.

Lex, seriously. STOP comparing this virus to the flu. It. Is. Not. The. Flu. If you MUST compare it to something, you really should be comparing it to COVID-19's "cousins" SARS and MERS, as they are far, far more similar to COVID-19 than influenza.

Seriously, just stop it already.
I will compare numbers to numbers as I see fit as long as they are accurate and apply within the context of comparison.

And for those who earlier stated a certain remark, yes, you are missing something. Just because a group of you are failing to understand something glaringly obvious doesn't make it my problem. Try not to break anything figuring out what you missed.
 
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