Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[the54thvoid]

I think we will achieve herd immunity by end of summer even without a vaccine, I am still not convinced me and many others I know didn't already have this in December and January seeing as how it spreads like wildfire. No one is giving out accurate anitbody tests yet, so there is really no way of knowing. But seeing as how vast vast majority of people are asymptomatic or light symptoms, and a new study out of Singapore today confirmed South Korea that at about 11 days after no symptoms even if covid 19 did return in a patient it was not spreadable, which indicates antibodies.

So the question is pretty straight forward. When will get a antibody test that is very accurate? I think that test should be equally as important as a vaccine, if you already have the antibodies you don't need a vaccine, unless I am not understanding vaccines correctly.

UK has a rapid and effective antibody test. They're hoping to roll out imminently. But it's for medical staff first.

It's a finger-prick blood test (two companies working on it, Roche and Abbot?).

 

[Space Lynx]

UK has a rapid and effective antibody test. They're hoping to roll out imminently. But it's for medical staff first.

So it is just a patience game again then, very well, back to gaming and reading I go ^^

 

[Tatty_Two]

I think we will achieve herd immunity by end of summer even without a vaccine, I am still not convinced me and many others I know didn't already have this in December and January seeing as how it spreads like wildfire. No one is giving out accurate anitbody tests yet, so there is really no way of knowing. But seeing as how vast vast majority of people are asymptomatic or light symptoms, and a new study out of Singapore today confirmed South Korea that at about 11 days after no symptoms even if covid 19 did return in a patient it was not spreadable, which indicates antibodies.

So the question is pretty straight forward. When will get a antibody test that is very accurate? I think that test should be equally as important as a vaccine, if you already have the antibodies you don't need a vaccine, unless I am not understanding vaccines correctly.

There is no information yet regarding how long "natural" immunity lasts which is why at this point in time herd immunity could be at best a temporary thing, there are good reasons why influenza vaccines are administered annually, if you as a nation choose to follow the herd immunity route then that is your choice but who would do that without strong evidence to support it including data on longevity, immune system recovery rates from infection etc? After 3 failed attempts quality testing antibody kits we have one (two maybe) and tests are taking place, only for the last week or so, the US is starting it's testing program in around 10 days I think.

 

[moproblems99]

who would do that without strong evidence to support it including data on longevity, immune system recovery rates from infection etc?

Sweden?

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 30788 confirmed infected --- 165 more
- 17822 recovered --- 273 more
- 1330 fatalities --- 14 more
- 311233 suspected cases --- 1267 more
- 689705 tests taken --- no change yet again ...
- 1899 waiting for test results --- 216 less
- 26449 under watch from authorities --- 121 more
- 531 hospitalized --- 5 less
- 72 in ICU --- 6 less

Our biggest cause for concern is Lisbon, which has been seeing more than 50% of the country's new daily cases.

Here's a pic of our hospitalized (blue) and ICU (orange) numbers over time (click for full picture):

 

[the54thvoid]

Sweden?

Sweden. Pop density of 23km2, compared with say the UK at approx. 260km2. Sweden, with no great central hub (such as London, New York, Madrid etc).

Also, as has been mentioned before, Swedes, in general, trust their governent and do as they are told, so they have observed social distancing etc. A fairly recent report suggested 9/10 Swedes are observing a social distancing model, most of the time, even on transport. But, even with all of that - they have the highest Scandinavian death rate (comparable for pop denisty and cultural ties).

So, yeah, Sweden with only 10 million population are doing their own thing. But consider NYC has a pop of over 8 million and you see the massive difference is denisty, and therefore, how you can approach such a virulent pathogen.

As others have said - it's all got to be in context. You live in a low pop density place with acres of space and no crush on public transport - it's far easier to use common sense and not a strict lockdown.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Sweden?

But they didn't lockdown in the first place but that was because of a small population rather than herd immunity, they have the population of New York or London with a land mass twice the size of UK, those scales don't make good conditions for herd immunity because by nature to get a herd you need an awful lot of infected people .........Brazil on the other hand took a similar approach but for very different reasons, they may eventually achieve herd immunity the way they are going, but here is the thing, if it takes them a year or 18 months to achieve it, they may find that all of those that caught the virus early in the Pandemic outbreak are no longer immune and that's the deal with a lack of Scientific evidence at this point in time.

Edit: sorry didn't see the 54thVoid's response at the time I was writing this.

 

[moproblems99]

But they didn't lockdown in the first place but that was because of a small population rather than herd immunity, they have the population of New York or London with a land mass twice the size of UK, those scales don't make good conditions for herd immunity because by nature to get a herd you need an awful lot of infected people .........Brazil on the other hand took a similar approach but for very different reasons, they may eventually achieve herd immunity the way they are going, but here is the thing, if it takes them a year or 18 months to achieve it, they may find that all of those that caught the virus early in the Pandemic outbreak are no longer immune and that's the deal with a lack of Scientific evidence at this point in time.

Edit: sorry didn't see the 54thVoid's response at the time I was writing this.

Well, what we are finding is that opening up but using some basic hygiene and common sense seems to do a pretty good job.

Edit: And don't get me wrong, lock downs weren't such a bad thing while the world was figuring out how to manage this. We have a pretty good idea on how to manage it and also a pretty good idea that lockdowns are not sustainable unless you run into problems like Italy and NYC. Of course there are exceptions, in this case, Italy and NYC WERE the exceptions. UK is close.

Hard to find a good stat sheet of pre and post reopenings.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Well, what we are finding is that opening up but using some basic hygiene and common sense seems to do a pretty good job.

Edit: And don't get me wrong, lock downs weren't such a bad thing while the world was figuring out how to manage this. We have a pretty good idea on how to manage it and also a pretty good idea that lockdowns are not sustainable unless you run into problems like Italy and NYC. Of course there are exceptions, in this case, Italy and NYC WERE the exceptions. UK is close.

Hard to find a good stat sheet of pre and post reopenings.

We are coming up to 2 weeks at Phase 1 easing, at a guess 15 - 20% of the workforce are back in the workplace, infection rates have gone up but only marginally but it's early days, phase 2 would be due to start a week next Wednesday, the data should be in just before then to show infection rates due to the easing, my concern is that each phase opens up more significantly so even just a 5% increase in infections at phase 1 could translate into 15-20% in phase 2, I agree though, most countries seem to be managing it well currently but we will see, it's amazing to think in comparison to where we are now that in Mid February I was only 30 miles from your location...… how things have changed so quickly!

 

[moproblems99]

how things have changed so quickly!

You ain't kidding there. God forbid something like the Plague rises.

 

[dragontamer5788]

You ain't kidding there. God forbid something like the Plague rises.

The plague spreads through infected flea bites. A problem in the middle-ages, but modern hygiene has eradicated that method of transmission. COVID19 is the disease that poked a hole in our hygine habits. Simply standing and talking to someone within 6 feet of you is all you need to transmit the thing.

This isn't like the Plague, AIDS or Ebola which requires body fluid swapping. Just talking to your fellow friends is sufficient to spread invisible aerosols and make them start breathing it.

Another note: The plague has an incubation period of just 1 to 3 days, meaning 3 days of quarantine is sufficient to be safe. COVID19 has an incubation period of 5 to 14 days, meaning you need 2-weeks of quarantine to be (95%) sure of safety. 3-days of quarantine does jack diddly squat for COVID19, the disease is too slow moving, making quarantine periods way too long. Frankly, I'd rather have the plague going around. Its pretty obvious what to do to prevent the plague from spreading despite its higher mortality rate.

 

[Tatty_Two]

UK Update @ 25 May:

 

[Space Lynx]

There is no information yet regarding how long "natural" immunity lasts which is why at this point in time herd immunity could be at best a temporary thing, there are good reasons why influenza vaccines are administered annually, if you as a nation choose to follow the herd immunity route then that is your choice but who would do that without strong evidence to support it including data on longevity, immune system recovery rates from infection etc? After 3 failed attempts quality testing antibody kits we have one (two maybe) and tests are taking place, only for the last week or so, the US is starting it's testing program in around 10 days I think.

This should still be easily measured, if the UK does indeed have a strong antibody test that is accurate, we simply keep testing the same antibody people once a week, if we did that in a few months we would know 100% that immunity at least lasts 3 months, but yeah we have to keep it up for as long as possible... something tells me that will not happen though. I will just get the vaccine as soon as it becomes available. I have high blood pressure and I struggle to control it, even with medicine I can't get my bottom number to go from 90 to 80 like it should be. So yeah... I don't want this virus, lol

the antibody test is separate from regular test, just so everyone is on the same page. really i think we should stop testing for pos and instead move full force into antibody testing. you have to quarantine anyway, and vast majority are asymptomatic. we need actual antibody numbers and how long the antibodies last

 

[Tatty_Two]

I agree with most of what you have said, however if we stop the testing for infection you lose some of your herd because you are then only antibody testing the ones currently tested as positive if you get my drift. As for antibody testing all those that have tested positive on a weekly basis, whilst it makes sound sense, in reality it would be really resource hungry, I mean as of today the infection rate in the USA is well over 1.6 million positive cases, in context, without even doing the standard tests that means doing around 10x the testing you are currently doing, it may be achievable on a monthly basis but that's still a big task, albeit I agree..... a worthwhile one.

Edit: Just seen an article saying that the CDC now have a combined standard test along with the antibody test apparently.

 

[xman2007]

Can't believe that this is still a thing, this is the biggest swindle in modern history, a virus that is no more deadly than a common cold or influenza virus, has brought many countries to their knees and put millions of people out of work and decimated the small business market, it's the 2020 version of the Emperors new clothes, and we're all meant to adhere to social distancing and not leaving home meanwhile politicians are at it, police are at it, celebs dont give a flying feck, but hey let the sheeple stay at home like good little subjects and stay safe, people need to wake the F up

 

[claes]

Yeah 100,000 dead in the US leading cause of death NBD

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Pretty sure it isn't. Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.

 

[HTC]

Well, what we are finding is that opening up but using some basic hygiene and common sense seems to do a pretty good job.

Edit: And don't get me wrong, lock downs weren't such a bad thing while the world was figuring out how to manage this. We have a pretty good idea on how to manage it and also a pretty good idea that lockdowns are not sustainable unless you run into problems like Italy and NYC. Of course there are exceptions, in this case, Italy and NYC WERE the exceptions. UK is close.

Hard to find a good stat sheet of pre and post reopenings.

It's actually the other way around: the sooner a country mandates a lockdown, the smaller the consequences of it: all you have to do is look @ New Zealand, which had place some of the hardest lockdown measures in the world (except for China) and is already on track to reopen, having had only just over 1500 cases in the whole country.

By "waiting too long" to go for a lockdown, the more the virus has spread and the longer it will take for the measures to have a strong enough effect to enable a re-opening: evidence of this is Italy and Spain.

Here's my chart with 13 countries infected cases, including Sweden (click for full picture):



Sweden and Portugal have a similar population (Portugal has just over 100K people more, according to worldometer). Sweden had infected cases before Portugal but Portugal passed Sweden by March 23rd and had almost twice as many cases by April 2nd (nearly 10K VS over 5K). Yet, Sweden "caught up" to Portugal on May 14th and presently has just over 3K more cases.

Don't know their hospitalized rate but, according to worldometer, they have 304 serious / critical while Portugal has 72, not to mention their 4029 deaths VS Portugal's 1330. Also, Portugal's area is almost 5 times smaller than Sweden's meaning Portugal has bigger population density.

 

[claes]

Pretty sure it isn't. Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.

You are certainly right, and it's unlikely to become the largest cause of death in the US over a yearly average. That said, CV-19 deaths has surpassed all other deaths on some days in the US, which is a unique statistic when compared to other "developed" states.

 

[moproblems99]

It's actually the other way around: the sooner a country mandates a lockdown

I'm not arguing the validity of lockdowns to figure things out. I'm arguing that when decent mitigation strategies are available, they should be enacted. That way, the opening can be more controlled instead of: "Oh shit, we are out of money, we need to get the economy back" and then just do a mad rush opening. A few weeks ago, NY Governor was puzzled because 60+% percent of cases were people following lockdown orders.

Sweden and Portugal have a similar population (Portugal has just over 100K people more, according to worldometer). Sweden had infected cases before Portugal but Portugal passed Sweden by March 23rd and had almost twice as many cases by April 2nd (nearly 10K VS over 5K). Yet, Sweden "caught up" to Portugal on May 14th and presently has just over 3K more cases.

Don't know their hospitalized rate but, according to worldometer, they have 304 serious / critical while Portugal has 72, not to mention their 4029 deaths VS Portugal's 1330. Also, Portugal's area is almost 5 times smaller than Sweden's meaning Portugal has bigger population density.

And that illustrates many people's points, Sweden took a vastly different approach with no lockdown and had basically the same outcome as Portugal. Yes, yes, context, blah, blah. The lock down "worked", but was it required?

 

[HTC]

Pretty sure it isn't. Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.

According to Reuters's USA page, 58110 people died from COVID-19 between April 1st and April 30th in USA: death toll went from 4839 to 62949 during that period.

 

[Caring1]

According to Reuters's USA page, 58110 people died from COVID-19 between April 1st and April 30th in USA: death toll went from 4839 to 62949 during that period.

That should say, 58,110 people that tested positive to Covid died ....
Cause of death may have been pre existing and exacerbated by Covid.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

That suggests only about 20,000 people died, at the worst, per week, of COVID-19. The rest were typical causes of death.

 

[HTC]

Well, there's a common sense way to try and prevent the spread, and there's the Belarus way:

Coronavirus: Belarus Premier League attracts global attention as it plays on

Football fans around the world are turning to Belarus to get their fix during lockdown as the game carries on in the former Soviet republic.

www.bbc.co.uk

No isolation strategy in place at all. Only 94 confirmed cases - no deaths. It's one to watch...

Almost two months later:



They have a low number of deaths (204) but dunno how they are reporting. For example, do they count the deaths from retirement homes?

Dunno what measures they have in place, if any.

 

[Space Lynx]

Pretty sure it isn't. Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.

It would have been a lot lot higher than that without the quarantine and forced self-awareness of masks/cleanliness etc. Probably quadruple the deaths if not more. But since people were hit like a shockwave, they now take more precautions so the numbers were able to stay relatively low.