Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[dragontamer5788]

Let's be fair, no one could have reasonably expected this situation.

Whataboutism and "both sides-isms" are incredibly weak points to make in light of the literal protesters who still haven't gotten the message: https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020...c-erlich-during-coronavirus-press-conference/

This isn't about mistakes that people have made 5 months ago. This is about the protesters literally in the streets today who still think this whole thing is a hoax. These are my friends, my family, and coworkers. The "COVID19 is a hoax" viewpoint is incredibly common.

and many still do even in the thick of it *looking at Brazil*

And indeed. Brazil is another good example of this.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Using your own source material, it's misleading to use a blanket figure of 0.4%.

From the article you linked:

First one is a comment buy a guy that questions CDCs numbers.
Second one is the author of the article pointing out that in places that haven't been hit hard have "reasonable" numbers.
Guess what happens when you average them?

 

[the54thvoid]

First one is a comment buy a guy that questions CDCs numbers.
Second one is the author of the article pointing out that in places that haven't been hit hard have "reasonable" numbers.
Guess what happens when you average them?

It's an expert pushing back, biologist Carl Bergstrom.

Your language is telling. You say 'a guy' as if it's Joe Bloggs on the street. He's an expert in modeling and computer simulations.

Secondly, the source article states this 'best scenario' is one of five CDC scenarios.

And then, averages? I clearly commented about making 'blanket' approaches when we've all discussed different demographics. So, the smiley face jibe wasn't necessary - in fact, it was quite childish. You clearly knew what I meant when I said 'blanket' approach.

And from the links to the article:

"The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19," the CDC says.
It says the numbers do not "reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions," which would be relevant for some of the agency's estimates -- such as how many infections stem from each case.

 

[FordGT90Concept]

IFR (infection fatality rate) is for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. Of course it's going to go higher and hot spots (like NYC) and lower in cold spots (like Whyoming). I'm not sure what your point is especially when the numbers stand up (and informed by) when doing broad antibody tests.

My point is that the CDC lowered IFR from 0.8-0.9% in March to 0.2-0.3 in May. That's a drop of three to four fold.


NYC likely has a whole lot more people with SARS-CoV-2 than testing implies.

I'm not even sure how a theoretical and evolutionary biologist qualifies in an expert in infectious disease modeling and virology which is literally CDC's day job and even they got it wrong by a huge margin.

And from the links to the article:

And why would it? IFR is the death rate for the disease, i.e. SARS-CoV-2. The more people that get it, the more people that die from it but also there's more people that don't die from it too: 99.7-99.8%.

This likely won't be the last time CDC adjusts IFR. That's why they're giving best and worst case scenarios...because it's hopefully somewhere in between.

 

[Ahhzz]

Let's be fair, no one could have reasonably expected this situation.

Ah, but someone knew we needed to be prepared for something exactly like this.

And I know the immediate reaction will be something to the effect of "Even a broken clock is right twice a day/once a day (for the military)". But let's face it. The previous administration was right. We should have had a plan and the framework of a response for this, but #45 has done everything it can to tear down anything the previous administration put in place, simple because of who did it.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32203 confirmed infected --- 257 more
- 19186 recovered --- 275 more
- 1396 fatalities --- 13 more
- 323663 suspected cases --- 2373 more
- 795838 tests taken --- 17140 more
- 2134 waiting for test results --- 566 more
- 28183 under watch from authorities --- 266 more
- 514 hospitalized --- 15 less
- 63 in ICU --- 3 less

Our northern region continues to be the hardest hit by this virus and it used to have nearly 10K "advantage" in number of cases. However, and because of these small hotspots lately in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area, that "advantage" is now less than 6K cases.

 

[the54thvoid]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

View attachment 157233 View attachment 157234

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32203 confirmed infected --- 257 more
- 19186 recovered --- 275 more
- 1396 fatalities --- 13 more
- 323663 suspected cases --- 2373 more
- 795838 tests taken --- 17140 more
- 2134 waiting for test results --- 566 more
- 28183 under watch from authorities --- 266 more
- 514 hospitalized --- 15 less
- 63 in ICU --- 3 less

Our northern region continues to be the hardest hit by this virus and it used to have nearly 10K "advantage" in number of cases. However, and because of these small hotspots lately in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area, that "advantage" is now less than 6K cases.

It seems as though Portugal's deaths are like clockwork - past five days - 12-14 deaths each day - which is of course very small.

 

[HTC]

It seems as though Portugal's deaths are like clockwork - past five days - 12-14 deaths each day - which is of course very small.

But it dropped below 10 in a few occasions, getting as low as 6. Problem is that, since then, it has also been up to 19.

Our death toll numbers aren't high when compared to other countries but, as can be seen, they do add up and do so to the point we're currently #13 in the world for deaths per 1M people with 137 deaths, if you remove those countries / other that have less than 1M people like Andorra and San Marino, for example, according to worldometer.

To put this number into perspective, Brazil currently has a lower death toll per 1M people than Portugal being #14 in the world with 132 deaths, though i expect Portugal to "lose" a place @ the expense of Brazil soon.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Ah, but someone knew we needed to be prepared for something exactly like this.

The real Nostradomas of this whole COVID19 thing is actually Bill Gates. https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready

 

[moproblems99]

Ah, but someone knew we needed to be prepared for something exactly like this.

Well, let us put the conspiracy hat on and say they were planning this to sabotage the next conservative president. I mean, Fauci was absolutely sure this President was going to experience a pandemic. Maybe because his Chinese funded lab was working on something?

 

[FordGT90Concept]

Lots of outbreaks/deaths at UK "care homes"

British nursing homes in crisis as deaths mount

At least 13,500 deaths linked to the novel coronavirus — nearly 1 in 3 — have occurred in British nursing and residential homes.

graphics.reuters.com

Deaths attributed to other causes have also risen sharply over the same period — so much so that the homes have 26,000 more deaths than is typical, a concept known as “excess deaths.”

 

[HTC]

Lots of outbreaks/deaths at UK "care homes"

British nursing homes in crisis as deaths mount

At least 13,500 deaths linked to the novel coronavirus — nearly 1 in 3 — have occurred in British nursing and residential homes.

graphics.reuters.com

View attachment 157340

It ain't solely in UK: in many countries, a great portion of those that died due to COVID-19 were in care homes.

For example, in Portugal's Azores archipelago, of the 15 deaths total by this virus thus far, 10 were in a single care home. In Canada, nearly 8 every 10 deaths have been in care homes and similar proportions can be observed in many other countries, unfortunately.

EDIT

This post got merged with the previous one, so i placed the above "EDIT" to separate the two.

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32500 confirmed infected --- 297 more
- 19409 recovered --- 223 more
- 1410 fatalities --- 14 more
- 325026 suspected cases --- 1363 more
- 795838 tests taken --- no change
- 2016 waiting for test results --- 118 less
- 27924 under watch from authorities --- 259 less
- 474 hospitalized --- 40 less
- 64 in ICU --- 1 more

Our northern region continues to be the hardest hit by this virus and it used to have nearly 10K "advantage" in number of cases. However, and because of these small hotspots lately in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area, that "advantage" is now less than 6K cases.

This is better illustrated with a couple pics from our "situation report" of May 20th and May 31st, respectively (click for full picture):



Our northern region is still and has always been the hardest hit but, as can be seen, it has seen an increase of just 272 infected cases in the span of 11 days. OTOH, Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region have had their infected cases number rise by 2454 in the same time frame: over 9 times higher.

Our death toll numbers aren't high when compared to other countries but, as can be seen, they do add up and do so to the point we're currently #13 in the world for deaths per 1M people with 137 deaths, if you remove those countries / other that have less than 1M people like Andorra and San Marino, for example, according to worldometer.

To put this number into perspective, Brazil currently has a lower death toll per 1M people than Portugal being #14 in the world with 132 deaths, though i expect Portugal to "lose" a place @ the expense of Brazil soon.

Portugal has seen their deaths per 1M people rise to 138 while Brazil rose to 136, with both "keeping their places in the ranking". By tomorrow, i expect we'll have "swapped places" ..., as per worldometer (click for full picture):

 

[dragontamer5788]

I was somewhat worried about that "upwards blip" for 2 days. But at this point, it seems like hospitalization numbers in Maryland have continued their decline.

It should be noted that tomorrow, all of Maryland will be entering phase 1 reopening (barber shops, etc. etc.). The areas which weren't hit hard entered phase1 2 weeks ago. With the continuous decline in COVID19 cases, it seems valid to continue to push the reopening.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32700 confirmed infected --- 200 more
- 19552 recovered --- 143 more
- 1424 fatalities --- 14 more
- 326278 suspected cases --- 1252 more
- 812415 tests taken --- 16577 more
- 1720 waiting for test results --- 296 less - according to "situation report"
- 27958 under watch from authorities --- 34 more
- 471 hospitalized --- 3 less
- 64 in ICU --- no change

It seems as though Portugal's deaths are like clockwork - past five days - 12-14 deaths each day - which is of course very small.

I'd like a "slower clock", please ...

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 32895 confirmed infected --- 195 more
- 19869 recovered --- 317 more
- 1436 fatalities --- 12 more
- 328873 suspected cases --- 2595 more
- 847181 tests taken --- 34766 more - i think this is two days worth of tests but i'm not 100% sure
- 1866 waiting for test results --- 146 more
- 28064 under watch from authorities --- 106 more
- 432 hospitalized --- 39 less
- 58 in ICU --- 6 less

Several steps have been taken a few days ago to address the issue of the small hotspots we were having in the Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area: hopefully, they'll work out but it's too early to see the results.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 33261 confirmed infected --- 366 more
- 20079 recovered --- 210 more
- 1447 fatalities --- 11 more
- 331094 suspected cases --- 2221 more
- 847181 tests taken --- no change
- 1944 waiting for test results --- 78 more
- 28093 under watch from authorities --- 29 more
- 428 hospitalized --- 4 less
- 56 in ICU --- 2 less

 

[the54thvoid]

I got sidetracked and forgot to log Tuesday's update. Figured I'd let it go anyway. Suffice to say, the top five are no longer the top five; Brazil's leapfrogged France and Spain, and will climb past Italy in a day or so.

On other news:

The expert in charge of Sweden's covid policy says they could have done things better.

Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died

Anders Tegnell says more should have been done early on to stem coronavirus in Sweden.

www.bbc.co.uk

While he stills supports the approach, he says they should have adopted a middleground strategy, between what they did and what the rest of the world mostly did.

Out of interest, here's an antibody study (Stockholm is Sweden's capital and most populace city).

These four charts show how devastating Sweden's no lockdown policy has been

Sweden’s decision to shun strict Covid-19 containment measures may have kept businesses open, but at what cost?

www.independent.co.uk

 

[FordGT90Concept]

How can Stockholm be so low? Yeah, London and New York have higher density but they actively tried to stop the spread where Sweden didn't. The link makes no effort to explain that phenomena.

 

[the54thvoid]

I think, as you and many have mentioned, it'll take quite some time before we can look back and get the answers. We're still in the midst of the pandemic, still learning about it.

 

[lexluthermiester]

The expert in charge of Sweden's covid policy says they could have done things better.

I think, realistically, every nation can say that. This was a first go for everyone. Never before in history has the whole world come together on something like this problem. Many mistakes have been made. Many lessons have been learned. A lot of scientific data has been collected. These events will be remembered, studied and debated for many decades to come.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 33592 confirmed infected --- 331 more
- 20323 recovered --- 244 more
- 1455 fatalities --- 8 more
- 333106 suspected cases --- 2012 more
- 847181 tests taken --- not updated ... again ...
- 1741 waiting for test results --- 203 less
- 28685 under watch from authorities --- 592 more
- 445 hospitalized --- 17 more
- 58 in ICU --- 2 more

The only good news of the day is that fatalities has reached single digit for the 4th time since March, IIRC.

I think, realistically, every nation can say that. This was a first go for everyone. Never before in history has the whole world come together on something like this problem. Many mistakes have been made. Many lessons have been learned. A lot of scientific data has been collected. These events will be remembered, studied and debated for many decades to come.

And many haven't ... still ...

Agree completely.

 

[Tatty_Two]

The UK entered it's 2nd Phase of easing on Monday of this week, some Primary school children returned to school, specifically the 4-6 year olds along with some aged 10-11. This 2nd phase is split into 2 so the next part will be introduced on Monday 15th June, this will include a very few Secondary school children aged 14/15 only, the rest of school children are unlikely to return to school before September at the end of the summer break. Also on 15th June, pretty much all retail will be back to work, in the main the only people not working at that point will be the extremely vulnerable and those workers predominantly from the Hospitality and Tourism sectors..... with the odd exceptions. From next Monday 8th June, anyone entering the UK from oversees (excluding the Republic of Ireland) but including UK citizens who have managed to go abroad for essential reasons (or returning from a location that they were unable to repatriate from when our borders closed) will be required to quarantine on their entry into the UK for 14 days.

During the last 24 hours the UK has a further 1,805 people tested positive with a further 176 deaths in all settings.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 33969 confirmed infected --- 377 more
- 20526 recovered --- 203 more
- 1465 fatalities --- 10 more
- 334923 suspected cases --- 1817 more
- 873998 tests taken --- 26817 more, but it's 2 days, not one
- 1636 waiting for test results --- 105 less
- 28088 under watch from authorities --- 597 less
- 475 hospitalized --- 30 more
- 64 in ICU --- 6 more

This doesn't look too good: the last time we had more news case than today was May 8th. Add to that the fact that, for the 2nd day in a row, both hospitalizations and ICU numbers increased, specially the former ... even though it's to be expected since we've eased the restrictions more ... gives me cause for concern ...

That chart i made a while back with infected cases from 13 countries? Here's how it looks with data up to yesterday (click for full picture):

 

[TheLostSwede]

Very details statistics from Sweden here. Seems to be very regional in some case, going as far as some parts of the same city being barely affected, whereas other areas nearby having a much higher death toll.

Geografiska skillnader i hur Covid19 drabbat Sverige

4,2 avlidna i Covid-19 per 10 000 invånare i landet som helhet. Men det finns stora geografiska skillnader runt om i landet.

www.svt.se

 

[Tatty_Two]

Very details statistics from Sweden here. Seems to be very regional in some case, going as far as some parts of the same city being barely affected, whereas other areas nearby having a much higher death toll.

Geografiska skillnader i hur Covid19 drabbat Sverige

4,2 avlidna i Covid-19 per 10 000 invånare i landet som helhet. Men det finns stora geografiska skillnader runt om i landet.

www.svt.se

There has been some research in the UK that suggests the more disadvantaged areas have been hit considerably worse than the more affluent ones, in some cases, in areas of similar population, triple the infection rates and more than double the fatalities..... dunno if that could be a factor in your example.