Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[harm9963]

That's a rare, and unlucky, situation. It should be noted that none of these tests are perfect. There's always a chance of false-positives (testing positive, but not having the virus), and false-negatives (testing negative, but having the virus). Furthermore, its virtually impossible to even measure false-positive and false-negative rates directly.

What is measured instead, is sensitivity and selectivity (aka: true positives and true negatives). This is tested by sending samples to "gold standard" tests (extremely expensive RNA / DNA machines). A random set of tests are "gold standard" tested. In effect, we have a "test for the test" to try and determine the true-positive and true-negative rates. Then we use fancy math and assumptions to get estimates for false-positive and false-negative rates (but that will always be an estimate... a "derived" result with a degree of guesswork).

"Fortunately" (and I say that ironically), the more "true positives" that exist in an area, the more accurate these tests become. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

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This is why we need many, many tests all across the country. A 2nd, or 3rd result, would greatly improve the accuracy of any result we get. "Batched tests", where we throw ~10 people into one test (to make that test 10x cheaper) could provide a 2nd or 3rd result at much cheaper costs.



Doctors and nurses use N95 masks to protect themselves (and surgical masks to protect others). Its obvious that masks work, despite only being 95% effective. (N95 only blocks 95% of 0.3um particles). Surgical masks don't even have a rating, they're loose fitting and let lots of air out. But surgical masks are still best sanitization practice.

Masks help. Doctors and nurses still get sick of course, but at much reduced rates. We still need to go to grocery stores, we still need to go to work sometimes (even white-collar jobs need to go into the office when telework stops working. IE: Laptop broke and needs to be diagnosed). Under these conditions where social-distancing is impossible, we use masks to prevent the spread. Blue-collar jobs (ie: Amazon Warehouse workers) must go to work and need protection.

How do you know its rare .
Using the CDC-developed diagnostic test, a negative result means that the virus that causes COVID-19 was not found in the person’s sample. In the early stages of infection, it is possible the virus will not be detected.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 46512 confirmed infected --- 291 more
- 30907 recovered --- 252 more
- 1660 fatalities --- 6 more
- 405110 suspected cases --- 1362 more
- 1316425 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 8th
- 1638 waiting for test results --- 67 more
- 34512 under watch from authorities --- 209 more
- 462 hospitalized --- 3 more
- 64 in ICU --- 4 less

On a personal note, despite my COVID-19 test result coming back negative, i'm still in quarantine @ least until July 22nd. I suppose this is in the off chance my result is actually a false negative, but i'm not sure. Got a call this morning by a doctor to follow up on my situation and gave me instructions on how to proceed, including regarding my workplace, and will continue to get these throughout the quarantine period. My cough eased a bit, though i still have a sore throat but, so far, no fever and no other symptoms.

Texas shatters daily record with 10,351 new coronavirus cases!

Texas shatters daily record with 10,351 new coronavirus cases

Texas has surpassed 10,000 new coronavirus cases in a single day for the second time this week.

abc13.com

Personally know two people who were tested here in HOUSTON Texas ,negative results for both, one ended up in the Hospital a month later, she was positive !

You do know there's the possibility that lady that went to the hospital later was negative @ the time she tested the virus and, @ a later date, contracted the virus, right?

 

[dragontamer5788]

How do you know its rare .
Using the CDC-developed diagnostic test, a negative result means that the virus that causes COVID-19 was not found in the person’s sample.

Because the sensitivity and specificity of many of these tests are well tested and published.

EDIT: Woops, I linked an antibody test. Silly me. I'll try to do a better job reading next time.

In the early stages of infection, it is possible the virus will not be detected.

That's true. The sensitivity drops down to only 60% if in the early days (day 1 through 5) for a lot of these tests. The later stage you are, the better sensitivity gets. In the USA, most people get tests after symptoms develop, which means they're on day 5-10 or later. So I'd expect the 80+% sensitivity (at least, with Vitros's test).

EDIT: woops, I made a few mistakes. I'll edit out the wrong information and edit in correct ones soon...

EDIT2: Jeez, another antibody test. Seems like most of these are antibody tests...

---------

Hmmm... now that I think of it... what you say is absolutely true for IgG antibody tests. Antibodies are created when your body starts to fight off the virus... and it seems like many tests are IgG tests (and therefore only effective once the antibodies are created).

Molecular tests actually test for the virus RNA itself. Something like: https://www.fda.gov/media/136525/download

The sensitivity of this molecular test is 95% (19/20 cases caught, with a concentration of 125 genomes / mL)

So it really depends on the test you get... and now that I think of it, there are many different tests being deployed to different locations.

--------

If everything is going right, we should be using anti-body tests to test for "Who got sick from COVID19". We can use antibody tests to see how far the virus has spread already (the antibodies remain in our blood for months, at least. So its a great way to track the disease after-the-fact).

I would hope that we're using molecular tests for people suspected of COVID19. An antibody test is kind of worthless: the body is already fighting the disease and generating chemicals that would kill the virus. It takes too long for antibodies to be made after infection, so its not really useful as a diagnostic test...

But given how many "mistakes" are being made right now. I can bet that some places are using an antibody test as a diagnostic test.

 

[Vayra86]

View attachment 161993

We keep going in circles. You claim there's no evidence, I point out the evidence, and then you ignore it.

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The early viral image is confirmed with further details here in the USA.

View attachment 161994

Here's the infection rate across the most infected states in USA. The states that were lax with mask laws are the ones that have the highest infection rates right now. The states that used masks have had their COVID19 infections drop.

This graph comes from Washington Post, which is updated daily. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_rhp__hp-top-table-main_gfx-virus-tracker:homepage/story-ans . The image is today's (7/12) set of statistics.

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Every measure stacks multiplicatively. Lockdowns are a multiplicative decay in virus reproduction. Masks are a multiplicative decay. Given how cheap, low-effort, and effective masks are, they are a no-brainer. No matter what situation your country is in (be it in the early stages of lockdown, or the late stages where things are opening back up), masks will help out.

A badly drawn graph and some circles plus some tally up of states (in the US of all places... do look abroad, Im living in a country that has this under control with zero masks involved ) are not evidence in any field of science that I know of.

So yes we go in circles because you keep regurgitating flawed sources that have passed and gone months ago... so far, none of what you have shown is valid in any way shape or form. The only right response is to take note and indeed ignore it. That goes for 99,9% of what social media feeds you btw, which is where that pic originated from. A random nobody. Source check would be good, no? I kinda knew that specific pic was going to fly by again.

Ill reiterate. - not once was mask usage any contributor to controlling this here in NL - nor in Italy, or Spain. Curves are flattened with lockdowns and it is exactly that which even those States are doing that you mention. Time to step into reality... but that seems ptoblematic overseas - not just in the US but also, for example, Brazil.

So far you guys aint done with this yet in the slightest, but in the EU we did manage controlling it without widespread mask enforcement - heck, we didnt even have any for quite awhile. How is that for evidence?

 

[moproblems99]

On April 30th, the last day of our lockdown in my county, we had 285 cases including 8 deaths. As of yesterday, we have 3369 cases and 29 deaths. About 11 times the number of cases with about less than 4 times the number of deaths. While cases have skyrockets, this applies to the state as well, the deaths and hospitalizations have not.

That state of Florida had 33,690 cases and 1268 deaths as of April 30th. As of yesterday, 270,000+ and 4,241 deaths. About 8 times more cases and less than 4 times the amount of deaths.

Either treatments are better or ... ?

I have also read that the CDC counts antibody and rna positives as new cases in reporting numbers. That seems a little disingenuous.

Also, consider this:

New York and New Jersey were once the epicenters of the disease. Now some people say that Florida is the epicenter. We have tons of travel at our airports here between NY and NJ. Our cases have been skyrocketing while NY and NJ are not. Why is this? Is everyone in NY and NJ carrying antibodies? Absolutely not.

Criminal penalties can not be enforced with out proper legislation. Constitutionality of such would be very iffy at best.

While I disagree with the rule in general, I agree with following rules. First one should be free pass. Second should $50. Double every time. Don't like the rule, change it in November.

The uptick in daily cases might be starting to show in deaths.

Nobody should use the US as a barometer for anything except stupidity. We have Covid Party's here to see who gets sick. I am pretty laissez faire with the virus but that is a little too far.

 

[Space Lynx]

On April 30th, the last day of our lockdown in my county, we had 285 cases including 8 deaths. As of yesterday, we have 3369 cases and 29 deaths. About 11 times the number of cases with about less than 4 times the number of deaths. While cases have skyrockets, this applies to the state as well, the deaths and hospitalizations have not.

That state of Florida had 33,690 cases and 1268 deaths as of April 30th. As of yesterday, 270,000+ and 4,241 deaths. About 8 times more cases and less than 4 times the amount of deaths.

Either treatments are better or ... ?

I have also read that the CDC counts antibody and rna positives as new cases in reporting numbers. That seems a little disingenuous.

Also, consider this:

New York and New Jersey were once the epicenters of the disease. Now some people say that Florida is the epicenter. We have tons of travel at our airports here between NY and NJ. Our cases have been skyrocketing while NY and NJ are not. Why is this? Is everyone in NY and NJ carrying antibodies? Absolutely not.



While I disagree with the rule in general, I agree with following rules. First one should be free pass. Second should $50. Double every time. Don't like the rule, change it in November.



Nobody should use the US as a barometer for anything except stupidity. We have Covid Party's here to see who gets sick. I am pretty laissez faire with the virus but that is a little too far.

Nursing homes were still getting wiped out in May, a full 3 months after they had time to prepare and sanitize everything coming in (even the doctors and nurses couldn't stop it with plenty of warning, blocking all visitors, etc). The problem is the virus is ok for 98% of us (creating and inflating our ego), but the other 2% experience 10x higher death rates than severe flu, and regardless of what we do to make nursing homes like fort knox, or help old people in general, the virus easily makes its way (personally I think the virus travels through the ventilation systems in nursing homes, large office buildings, etc). So if we use basic logic, the problem isn't the virus really, it's that we as a society don't give a damn about old or vulnerable people. It's really not that hard to wear a mask like all the other nations that have it under control, even Vietnam and Thailand have it under control with very little deaths, because they all started wearing masks very early on. Amazing that 2nd world countries are beating and smarter than the richest nation on Earth. Yeah, most of us will be fine if we get it. It's a shame that so many are meh about masks, if I was an old person in Florida right now, I would be scared as crap. Will be hard to even get your groceries, especially if they find out that the virus floats in the air (I think many scientists believe this to be the case), because then asymptomatic people can still contaminate you in an empty grocery aisle, even with a mask on (ear/eyes it is very hard to contract this way but it is possible). So if everyone just wore a mask, it would halt the virus in its tracks. But that requires top down leadership, not state to state leadership.

 

[moproblems99]

You make this out like it is black and white when all the other experts are flipping and flopping all over this, WHO included.

The problem is the virus is ok for 98% of us (creating and inflating our ego), but the other 2% experience 10x higher death rates than severe flu

Creating and inflating our ego? What are you on about?

it's that we as a society don't give a damn about old or vulnerable people

I beg to differ. Florida as a state has about 1500 nursing home deaths because we generally try to take steps to help them out. Don't use New York as your baseline for the rest of the country. New York did not care about the elderly.

It's really not that hard to wear a mask like all the other nations

Ask the Netherlands why they do alright without masks.

I think many scientists believe this to be the case [that the virus is airborne]

Do some quick googling and you'll see that the scientific community is very divided on that.

asymptomatic people can still contaminate you

The WHO doesn't seem to think so.

So if everyone just wore a mask, it would halt the virus in its tracks

Again, ask Denmark how they are able to manage without them. The reason the virus spreads is because people are disgusting and don't practice basic hygiene. A mask isn't going to help with that. Case in point, the average person gets out of the store with their mask on. Gets in their care and tasks their mask off and starts picking their nose, puts their phone to their face, etc, etc, etc. More than likely, they never clean their hands in between any of these events. I bet 40% of people (mostly men), don't even wash their hands after using a public restroom. Common hygiene practices would have more of an effect than masks.

But that requires top down leadership, not state to state leadership

Why is that? Aren't people smart enough to make decisions on their own? If anything, State to State should be more effective as the information is closer to home, more personal if you will.

 

[Space Lynx]

You make this out like it is black and white when all the other experts are flipping and flopping all over this, WHO included.



Creating and inflating our ego? What are you on about?



I beg to differ. Florida as a state has about 1500 nursing home deaths because we generally try to take steps to help them out. Don't use New York as your baseline for the rest of the country. New York did not care about the elderly.



Ask the Netherlands why they do alright without masks.



Do some quick googling and you'll see that the scientific community is very divided on that.



The WHO doesn't seem to think so.



Again, ask Denmark how they are able to manage without them. The reason the virus spreads is because people are disgusting and don't practice basic hygiene. A mask isn't going to help with that. Case in point, the average person gets out of the store with their mask on. Gets in their care and tasks their mask off and starts picking their nose, puts their phone to their face, etc, etc, etc. More than likely, they never clean their hands in between any of these events. I bet 40% of people (mostly men), don't even wash their hands after using a public restroom. Common hygiene practices would have more of an effect than masks.



Why is that? Aren't people smart enough to make decisions on their own? If anything, State to State should be more effective as the information is closer to home, more personal if you will.

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200709/danish-health-agency-recommends-face-masks

Denmark does wear masks in crowded areas...

 

[moproblems99]

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200709/danish-health-agency-recommends-face-masks

Denmark does wear masks in crowded areas...

My bad, Denmark was a typo. See Netherlands like the first one. @Vayra86 says they do fine without.

The point was, masks are not the end all be all. They will not stop it in its tracks. Are there benefits, likely, but basic hygiene will probably do just as much or likely more.

 

[dragontamer5788]

A badly drawn graph and some circles plus some tally up of states (in the US of all places... do look abroad, Im living in a country that has this under control with zero masks involved ) are not evidence in any field of science that I know of.

So yes we go in circles because you keep regurgitating flawed sources that have passed and gone months ago... so far, none of what you have shown is valid in any way shape or form. The only right response is to take note and indeed ignore it. That goes for 99,9% of what social media feeds you btw, which is where that pic originated from. A random nobody. Source check would be good, no? I kinda knew that specific pic was going to fly by again.

And yet you're still unprepared to argue against the picture, despite my repeated use of it. You claim that masks don't help, and then simply ignore the evidence when I point out countries that have seen a lessening of COVID cases.

Ill reiterate. - not once was mask usage any contributor to controlling this here in NL - nor in Italy, or Spain.

Then why are masks mandatory in Italy and Spain? And why are masks mandatory in NL busses or public transport? The very base of your argument falls apart to the slightest scrutiny.

Coronavirus: Spain tightens mask rules for all older than five

Wearing one will be compulsory for most people indoors and out, if social distancing is not possible.

www.bbc.com

https://www.thelocal.it/20200615/italy-new-rules-on-flying

9292 Travels with you!

9292 is a daily source of travel information for public transport for all kinds of passengers. We bring all information from all transport companies together in a user-friendly way.

9292.nl

 

[R0H1T]

Did that study about the (different) virus strains yield any more interesting facts? I recall xkm1948 posting a research paper about it, if you think the virus in NL will have the same impact in the US regardless of the geography, temperature, humidity & of course people & their lifestyle then you obviously have no clue about how these things work! Also did I mention the 3 major types of strains

 

[dragontamer5788]

Did that study about the (different) virus strains yield any more interesting facts? I recall xkm1948 posting a research paper about it, if you think the virus in NL will have the same impact in the US regardless of the geography, temperature, humidity & of course people & their lifestyle then you obviously have no clue about how these things work! Also did I mention the 3 different types of strains

I know there was discussion about the various strains (I was only aware of 2 strains... but maybe a 3rd one popped up)... but I haven't read too much about that.

NYC believes that most of their cases came "from Europe". So its highly likely that the US East-coast has the same strain as from Europe. West Coast has more connections to China, so I wouldn't be surprised if there was a different strain in Washington / California. But this is just my guesswork: I haven't really read any papers on this subject.

 

[R0H1T]

I recall the paper said that the strain prevalent in the US is possibly the more virulent one, than Europe & certainly China, but that was some 3 months back so things may have changed/become more clear since then.

 

[harm9963]

Stocks surrender gains after California rolls back coronavirus reopenings

A late day reversal hits stocks hard ahead of bank earnings out tomorrow.

www.foxbusiness.com

If the ongoing studies are successful, and the vaccine candidate receives regulatory approval, the companies currently expect to manufacture up to 100 million doses by the end of 2020 and potentially more than 1.2 billion doses by the end of 2021.

 

[Vayra86]

And yet you're still unprepared to argue against the picture, despite my repeated use of it. You claim that masks don't help, and then simply ignore the evidence when I point out countries that have seen a lessening of COVID cases.



Then why are masks mandatory in Italy and Spain? And why are masks mandatory in NL busses or public transport? The very base of your argument falls apart to the slightest scrutiny.

Coronavirus: Spain tightens mask rules for all older than five

Wearing one will be compulsory for most people indoors and out, if social distancing is not possible.

www.bbc.com

https://www.thelocal.it/20200615/italy-new-rules-on-flying

9292 Travels with you!

9292 is a daily source of travel information for public transport for all kinds of passengers. We bring all information from all transport companies together in a user-friendly way.

9292.nl

Believe as you like, until you can come to terms with the rest of my post's arguments instead of picking the ones that suit your narrative. Quantifiable evidence.,. Until then, its all BS. Countries juming on hype trains are not evidence.

Note the non medical part of the measure in NL publicj transport Note the fact those measures on masks are post flattened curve. Ergo, we still have zero evidence masks do anything at all. Let alone all the other hurdles, such as the vast majority completely unable to use it properly, or even refresh it daily.

We're done.

My bad, Denmark was a typo. See Netherlands like the first one. @Vayra86 says they do fine without.

The point was, masks are not the end all be all. They will not stop it in its tracks. Are there benefits, likely, but basic hygiene will probably do just as much or likely more.

Good to see there is still some sanity left in this topic.

 

[dragontamer5788]

We're done.

Are we? Or are you just going to bring up the mask subject again in a few months? If you're done, then we can be done if you really like.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Stocks surrender gains after California rolls back coronavirus reopenings

A late day reversal hits stocks hard ahead of bank earnings out tomorrow.

www.foxbusiness.com

The UK has started too about 3 or 4 weeks ago. Manufacturing of base components started then just to stay ahead of the production game.

 

[Vayra86]

Are we? Or are you just going to bring up the mask subject again in a few months? If you're done, then we can be done if you really like.

I'm going to bring it up anytime I see social media nonsense regurgitated in a topic that is supposed to be fact based, this time the trigger was Lynx29's ridiculous statement. Just to balance things out a little bit. Call it a sanity check, if you will. I think long term people benefit from keeping a level head like that. I do, at least.

Its also an exercise of reflecting on what you've been fed in terms of info, and how to value each part of it, but also to consider the motivation to 'decide' upon, in this case, mask usage. This is a crisis situation, and its all too easy to devolve into a state of madness which is where many governments are edging into right now, the US front and center. Masks only serve the purpose of giving people the peace of mind they might need to go out again and restart an economy. It has absolutely ZERO merit in terms of stopping pandemics like this. History is full of evidence, and we simply cannot ignore that. Our current day reality is that we're running the rat race and whenever we stop, lots of rich (and poor) people get very nervous. Consider that one, when you think of masks. Any society that cannot handle a pandemic and chooses to solve it with measures like these... is prioritizing economy over your personal well being. To each his own, but that is not happening in my world.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Masks only serve the purpose of giving people the peace of mind they might need to go out again and restart an economy.

The politics of your region are so significantly different from the USA that you're not understanding the issues we have here.

Today, we have anti-mask protesters gathering in Florida (the #1 COVID region in the USA) claiming that "masks don't do anything", and that COVID19 is a hoax. Wearing a mask, politically speaking in the USA, means taking COVID19 more seriously than others:

Your naivete is somewhat refreshing. You're anti-mask but pro-lockdown. You have a reasonable point of view in the great scheme of things. However, your viewpoint clashes severely with the culture war going on right now in the USA. Pro-mask and pro-lockdown are on the same side over here. Wearing a mask is in support of the lockdowns.

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There's a political game being played here. It seems like you are insulated from it, and therefore lucky. The anti-science folk are the ones without masks marching in the streets and forming parties, spreading COVID all across the south. We've got "Covid Parties" over here, as people flaunt the virus and dare it to spread in their own communities. That's what anti-mask means in America.

 

[Vayra86]

The politics of your region are so significantly different from the USA that you're not understanding the issues we have here.

Today, we have anti-mask protesters gathering in Florida (the #1 capitol of the world) claiming that "masks don't do anything", and that COVID19 is a hoax. Wearing a mask, politically speaking in the USA, means taking COVID19 more seriously than others.

Your naivete is somewhat refreshing. You're anti-mask but pro-lockdown. You have a reasonable point of view in the great scheme of things. However, your viewpoint clashes severely with the culture war going on right now in the USA. Pro-mask and pro-lockdown are on the same side over here. Wearing a mask is in support of the lockdowns.

Exactly, so mask is political and not factual nor actually useful. Why even bother? Why place such a burden on yourself and society? Its completely crazy and that is perhaps fine for the US but its not the actual norm. And I won't stand for it becoming one. In Asia its not much different really, except there its not the political element but a social one: mask usage is telling the people around you 'look, I care'.

We understand each other now The US is not, and will never be synonymous for the world, despite what some inhabitants might think.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Exactly, so mask is poltiical and not factual nor actually useful. Why even bother?

I agree with you that a mask is a political tool. But I believe in the science of a mask. The virus enters through your breathing, and covering your mouth is clearly effective.

Do not confuse my amicability to you as agreement. I'm simply changing the subject to something that you and I can agree upon, so that we can better move on from this subject.

 

[neatfeatguy]

I've known 3-4 dozen people that have been "positively" test for covid. They all range in age, race and some even have other underlying health issues.
Someone as young as 20 to some older folks right around 70. One of the older folks has chronic bronchitis, she simply developed a slight fever for a couple days and that was it. A handful of people have asthma and even a couple have diabetes, they showed such mild symptoms they thought they just had a mild cold.
No one was hospitalized, the worst was someone having a fever and headaches for about 5 days. Otherwise slight runny nose, stiff joines, maybe slight fevers for a day or two or slight coughs.
Some of them said only some of their immediate family members tested positive after being quarantined for 2 weeks and getting everyone in the family tested - not everyone in their families contracted it, even after been locked up with positive family members for 2 weeks.
Anyone that I've asked that has been tested at one point for it or had family/friends that tested positive...no one said they've had anyone they know needing to be required to be hospitalized.

Wife has a co-worker that has a son that's in the air force and the academy he went back to about 2 months back now, he told his dad no one wears masks. They do all the same activities as they did before any covid scares and social distancing was a thing. He said they get tested rigorously (at least once a week, some times 2 or 3 times a week for anyone that's just returned from being away) and only a couple of cases have come up. Those that do test positive are quarantined for 2 weeks in their room with their roommate and then they're released back out to join up in classes and training. Nothing has changed for them - no masks, no social distancing and the cases have been very minimal with mild to showing zero symptoms.

As for wearing masks, I know people that have become sick just from constantly wearing masks because they so truly believe everything in the media and social media that they will, honest to god, die if they don't wear them because they've been lead to believe covid is a death sentence. They've ended up with colds and pneumonia due to poor air they're breathing in because of the constant mask wearing.

It all just kind of makes you go....hmmmm.

 

[Vayra86]

I agree with you that a mask is a political tool. But I believe in the science of a mask. The virus enters through your breathing, and covering your mouth is clearly effective.

In a very basic sense I am not contesting that either to be fair with you. So we might be in almost full agreement here... But I'm a realist, and I see people wearing masks and 99% doing an extremely shitty job at doing so. I see idiots alone in a car wearing a mask over their mouth with nose exposed... I see masks as fashion items, non medical and made of worthless materials. ETc etc etc.

You fight pandemics especially among the masses, with measures that actually work and are sustainable. That is the balancing act the Netherlands is on too with regards to reopening. Constant, very minor tweaks, really, to keep everything manageable, including the public's ability to keep going along with all of it. Behavioral psychology plays a *massive* role here, if not the only one that matters. This is because we have free societies and people must be convinced, and cannot, or will not be forced anyway.

Glad we came to some interesting talking points in the end.

I've known 3-4 dozen people that have been "positively" test for covid. They all range in age, race and some even have other underlying health issues.
Someone as young as 20 to some older folks right around 70. One of the older folks has chronic bronchitis, she simply developed a slight fever for a couple days and that was it. A handful of people have asthma and even a couple have diabetes, they showed such mild symptoms they thought they just had a mild cold.
No one was hospitalized, the worst was someone having a fever and headaches for about 5 days. Otherwise slight runny nose, stiff joines, maybe slight fevers for a day or two or slight coughs.
Some of them said only some of their immediate family members tested positive after being quarantined for 2 weeks and getting everyone in the family tested - not everyone in their families contracted it, even after been locked up with positive family members for 2 weeks.
Anyone that I've asked that has been tested at one point for it or had family/friends that tested positive...no one said they've had anyone they know needing to be required to be hospitalized.

Wife has a co-worker that has a son that's in the air force and the academy he went back to about 2 months back now, he told his dad no one wears masks. They do all the same activities as they did before any covid scares and social distancing was a thing. He said they get tested rigorously (at least once a week, some times 2 or 3 times a week for anyone that's just returned from being away) and only a couple of cases have come up. Those that do test positive are quarantined for 2 weeks in their room with their roommate and then they're released back out to join up in classes and training. Nothing has changed for them - no masks, no social distancing and the cases have been very minimal with mild to showing zero symptoms.

As for wearing masks, I know people that have become sick just from constantly wearing masks because they so truly believe everything in the media and social media that they will, honest to god, die if they don't wear them because they've been lead to believe covid is a death sentence. They've ended up with colds and pneumonia due to poor air they're breathing in because of the constant mask wearing.

It all just kind of makes you go....hmmmm.

Interesting, actual fact: some 41-47% of infections actually happened in the domestic space, your own home, by and from family members or relatives. The primary route for spread is actually intense or frequent contact in close proximity. It amounted for the above percentage of ALL infections we've had since this all begun over here.

So quarantined with positive family members or roommates... great... its a sure way to catch it yourself Quarantine should, even in the same house, be extremely strict if your eally want to cut off the R number and avoid the infection altogether. We also know that even with mild symptoms the warpath this thing goes on inside your organs and body isn't really a good thing. The damage is semi permanent or at least very long lasting. A bit like how once you get a back injury you'll never recover back to the full strength you had prior to it.

As for all the rest, this is exactly what we see over here. Once you've got the curve under control, you can control the pandemic by keeping it on a tight leash and all other measures are really not necessary anymore. Whack a mole, as mentioned

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 46818 confirmed infected --- 306 more
- 31065 recovered --- 158 more
- 1662 fatalities --- 2 more
- 406412 suspected cases --- 1302 more
- 1316425 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 8th
- 1291 waiting for test results --- 67 more
- 34301 under watch from authorities --- 347 less
- 467 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 63 in ICU --- 1 less

 

[dragontamer5788]

Interesting, actual fact: some 41-47% of infections actually happened in the domestic space, your own home, by and from family members or relatives. The primary route for spread is actually intense or frequent contact in close proximity. It amounted for the above percentage of ALL infections we've had since this all begun over here.

Or, my roof started leaking last month, so I had to call a contractor in.

Contractor did some work outside with binoculars, but still had to come inside to the attic to inspect the roof from the inside. Afterwards, we sat down at my kitchen table to discuss options, opting for a full single replacement + replacement of some of the roof decking (The leak was going through multiple different panels of decking: at least 2 leaks identified from the quickie scan from inside the attic). The job ultimately replaced 4 panels of roof decking, all of which shown water damage going through.

We wore masks the whole time. Both myself, as well as the contractor. This person-to-person contact could not be avoided. The contractor should inspect my roof from the inside to get a full idea of the job. It was a person-to-person talk lasting roughly 1 hour total. (This option costs X dollars, this other option costs more but has a longer warranty. Etc. etc. Including samples of the roofing material to be used at different price points, colors to choose, and other such decisions)

Yes, intense contact in close proximity. If my roof wasn't leaking, I would have avoided the subject. But life calls, we can't avoid all meetings even in the mist of this shutdown. In these situations, a mask is your last line of defense. Letting the roof leak for another few weeks would have continued to cause thousands of dollars of water damage throughout my home, this was an issue that required immediate attention.

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You're right in that talking (or singing) seems to escalate the risks of COVID19. This means that grocery store shopping is relatively low risk... but the risks start to escalate when you start talking. Primarily interacting with the cashier. Singing at church (which was one of the first super-spreading events in the USA). Etc. etc. Almost all of these major events had sitting around and talking as a common thread.