Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[moproblems99]

Good to see there is still some sanity left in this topic.

I question mine every day

prioritizing economy over your personal well being

In a sense, I do prioritize the economy over my my own well being. We have worse problems than the virus when the economy tanks. It also is not lost on me that my (our) individual well-being drives the economy. It is a tug of war and I treat it so.

 

[Space Lynx]

I question mine every day



In a sense, I do prioritize the economy over my my own well being. We have worse problems than the virus when the economy tanks. It also is not lost on me that my (our) individual well-being drives the economy. It is a tug of war and I treat it so.

Ironically, if you just wore masks and it was enforced from the top down level, nothing would have to close. lol Funny how you prioritize the economy but refuse to wear a mask. Interesting times we live in.

 

[moproblems99]

Ironically, if you just wore masks and it was enforced from the top down level, nothing would have to close. lol Funny how you prioritize the economy but refuse to wear a mask. Interesting times we live in.

I never said I refuse. If I refused, there would be places I couldn't go, like the doctors. Or Disney. I just choose wisely. Also, what if I choose to the wear the mask but with my nose exposed like half the other people out there. Is that good enough? Should we have mask inspections so that people are actually wearing them correctly so efficacy is actually achieved. Or is simply putting a mesh screen good enough?

Let's face it, the spit soaked see-through cloth pieces of shit that most people wear aren't doing anything. If everyone was wearing masks that are useful, it may be a different story. But those cost too much so no one buys them.

 

[Space Lynx]

I never said I refuse. If I refused, there would be places I couldn't go, like the doctors. Or Disney. I just choose wisely.

So do I... no one is telling you to wear a mask in unpopulated areas... I ride my bike without a mask... cause there is no one else around where I ride.

The point is only some places enforce masks. My grocery stores do not, but Menards for example does, it creates a whack a mole situation, and then people travel state to state to. Unless the law to wear masks in all populated places and stores comes from the top down, then it will be an endless whack a mole situation. This is what you disagree with, Or maybe that was Varya I don't remember. Anyways, yeah it's pretty simple to me, so whatevs.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Ironically, if you just wore masks and it was enforced from the top down level, nothing would have to close. lol Funny how you prioritize the economy but refuse to wear a mask. Interesting times we live in.

An N95 mask is 95% effective, preventing 95% of 0.3um aerosols from entering your mouth when breathing. Cotton masks however, are at best 60% effective (probably worse when homemade). Cotton masks do not have the electrostatic properties of N95 masks, nor a tight enough weave to stop particles of that size with the same effect. Furthermore, a large amount of the population (at least 50%) fail to use a mask correctly. You cannot touch the mask without washing your hands. You should wash your masks after every use. Wear it over your damn nose. Color-code the sides, always wear the "inside" portion on your face. (If you ever "invert" the mask, you start breathing in the COVID19 side and you've lost everything). Etc. etc.

In combination, I expect that cotton masks are 30ish% effective at best (just my personal expectation).

-----------

The reason why I'm very pro-masks is that its actually quite easy to use (if you know what you're doing). Don't touch the mask, carry hand-sanitizer, and use it before AND after you touch the mask. Wash your mask each use (carry multiple masks per day in a bag / car / whatever). I suggest maybe 10 masks in your closet, giving you enough time to use a mask, throw it in the laundry and use a fresh one. Color-coding can be as simple as two permanent-market notches on one side of the mask (the inside).

Once you got your methodology down, its easy.

---------

Another note: I assume COVID19 to have an R0 of 3. During the lockdown, America achieved a 50% reduction in mobility, suggesting an R-value of 1.5. Even with the lockdown in place, we're not reducing R below 1 yet. We need additional measures to get R below 1.0.

Assuming Masks x Lockdowns, we have 3.0 / 2 / 1.3 == 1.15 R-value or so. Additional efforts are still needed, but we'd be pretty close to R-value of 1.0 or less. Maybe additional cleanliness / hygiene at work environments (specifically: the ones that cannot lockdown. Blue-collar cashiers, food processing plants, grocery stores, parcel delivery, etc. etc.) will get us the last 20% or so we need to get to a safe level. Every effort provides us another multiplier of safety. Combining multiple means of safety together would be best.

--------

Or really, contact tracing is the last major boost to most localities. Have authorities seek out infections by calling contacts, and informing people that they've been in contact with an infected person. Even if you only catch 20% of the people through contact tracing, that's another 20% multiplier on top of all other precautions the society has taken.

--------

There's no "silver bullet" here. The only thing that will work is a multi-faceted approach with as many precautions taken at very turn as possible. Once all precautions are taken, we then open up the economy as much as possible (while keeping R-values below 1.0). The more we have in other protections, the more we can open up and return to normalcy. Maybe with more mask usage, people will be more comfortable using them and mask-usage will rise from 30% effective to 40% effective (with training, tips, and discussion between people). At which point, that "additional 10%" bonus can be spent on opening up another 10% of the lockdown.

 

[robot zombie]

An N95 mask is 95% effective, preventing 95% of 0.3um aerosols from entering your mouth when breathing. Cotton masks however, are at best 60% effective (probably worse when homemade). Cotton masks do not have the electrostatic properties of N95 masks, nor a tight enough weave to stop particles of that size with the same effect. Furthermore, a large amount of the population (at least 50%) fail to use a mask correctly. You cannot touch the mask without washing your hands. You should wash your masks after every use. Wear it over your damn nose. Color-code the sides, always wear the "inside" portion on your face. (If you ever "invert" the mask, you start breathing in the COVID19 side and you've lost everything). Etc. etc.

In combination, I expect that cotton masks are 30ish% effective at best (just my personal expectation).

-----------

The reason why I'm very pro-masks is that its actually quite easy to use (if you know what you're doing). Don't touch the mask, carry hand-sanitizer, and use it before AND after you touch the mask. Wash your mask each use (carry multiple masks per day in a bag / car / whatever). I suggest maybe 10 masks in your closet, giving you enough time to use a mask, throw it in the laundry and use a fresh one. Color-coding can be as simple as two permanent-market notches on one side of the mask (the inside).

Once you got your methodology down, its easy.

---------

Another note: I assume COVID19 to have an R0 of 3. During the lockdown, America achieved a 50% reduction in mobility, suggesting an R-value of 1.5. Even with the lockdown in place, we're not reducing R below 1 yet. We need additional measures to get R below 1.0.

Assuming Masks x Lockdowns, we have 3.0 / 2 / 1.3 == 1.15 R-value or so. Additional efforts are still needed, but we'd be pretty close to R-value of 1.0 or less. Maybe additional cleanliness / hygiene at work environments (specifically: the ones that cannot lockdown. Blue-collar cashiers, food processing plants, grocery stores, parcel delivery, etc. etc.) will get us the last 20% or so we need to get to a safe level. Every effort provides us another multiplier of safety. Combining multiple means of safety together would be best.

Interestingly enough, some of the mask guidelines here urge people NOT to use N95 masks... ...to save them for workers who need the ppe more...

...which begs the question. Why are we being compelled to wear them if there arent enough proper ones to go around? Human psychology 101 says most will just wear whatever, however, when forced.

I think theyre better than nothing, dont get me wrong. But at least in my neck of the woods it really is more of a political statement than actually being part of a unified plan to bring the numbers down. It almost seems more like a ploy to distract from the coming possibility of more setbacks and closures.

Like, weve been hit hard... so much handwaving has gone around. And then it comes down to "Everybody wear your non-n95 masks so we can stay open!"

To me theyre softballing it. Masks as they exist here are nowhere near good enough. And I doubt if theyre going to be. I think folks here want to believe it will be. But even now, stores arent turning down people without masks, even with signs saying its the law. A good half of the people I see arent. And the other half arent wearing n95.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Interestingly enough, some of the mask guidelines here urge people NOT to use N95 masks... ...to save them for workers who need the ppe more...

N95 masks are in short supply, and therefore should be given to nurses / doctors.

...which begs the question. Why are we being compelled to wear them if there arent enough proper ones to go around? Human psychology 101 says most will just wear whatever, however, when forced.

Because a cotton mask can be made out of a T-shirt and will reach 30% effectiveness (by my estimate). 30% effective is better than 0% effective.

Like, weve been hit hard... so much handwaving has gone around. And then it comes down to "Everybody wear your non-n95 masks so we can stay open!"

Anyone saying that N95 masks allow us to open up just... haven't studied the math behind this or given it any thought. Masks are at best, a medium-effect solution. Its true power is that "use masks" can be combined with literally every other policy to make them 30% more effective. Doesn't matter what your municipality is: its 30% more effective in a lockdown to use masks, its 30% more effective outside of lockdowns to use a mask.

Given the relatively low costs, why not? Its a win as long as people know how to do laundry.

And the other half arent wearing n95.

With N95 masks in short supply, it is immoral to use an N95 mask under these times. Do not use an N95 mask. Donate your N95 masks to your local hospital.

 

[robot zombie]

N95 masks are in short supply, and therefore should be given to nurses / doctors.



Because a cotton mask can be made out of a T-shirt and will reach 30% effectiveness (by my estimate). 30% effective is better than 0% effective.



Anyone saying that N95 masks allow us to open up just... haven't studied the math behind this or given it any thought. Masks are at best, a medium-effect solution. Its true power is that "use masks" can be combined with literally every other policy to make them 30% more effective. Doesn't matter what your municipality is: its 30% more effective in a lockdown to use masks, its 30% more effective outside of lockdowns to use a mask.

Given the relatively low costs, why not? Its a win as long as people know how to do laundry.



With N95 masks in short supply, it is immoral to use an N95 mask under these times. Do not use an N95 mask. Donate your N95 masks to your local hospital.

I understand all of that. I have 3 decent cloth masks with pouches for inserts, which I cycle-out as needed and wash regularly. Personally, I wish people would just do it, but in the state of Florida, I really don't see it happening. The amount of people following guidelines (and now mandates) are the same as they were when we had our last spikes. The only difference is we test more now. If the best we have is 50% of people out and about wearing masks that are 30% effective, we are screwed! I'm lucky if fewer than 3 people blatantly break my distancing at the store. As much as I appreciate the ideals behind it, it's a band aid on a gunshot wound, and the fragments are still inside. Municipality does matter. Masks are only as effective as people are willing to wear them. In my municipality, many, many people are willing to break the law in order to not wear one. Some just don't care, for others it is a statement. The conversations go back and forth between 'masks will be our salvation' and total denial of everything covid. Even local politicians are saying everything will be fine if everyone wears masks. OTOH many are sick of being told what they believe is what suits the people telling them on that day. They are eager to turn against our leaders at this point. And now they've been given a chance to protest by simply not wearing a mask. I think mandating it was a terrible idea. It doesn't sit well with the ecology of people here.

If only they could figure out a way to actually unify people. That's a separate topic, though. The ship has kinda sailed there and it comes down to leadership decisions and information passed down. It comes down to a failure to accurately communicate the right information and get that flowing down all channels. They've asked a bunch of people to do things they don't want to do, haven't been clear enough on the reasons, and have often done nothing to address the bad information, or even the most commonly held sentiments.

I think you severely underestimate the amount of ignorance in our state. You mentioned masks as a great supplement to other policies. Totally with you there. Still trying to figure out where those are right now. Mostly our governor seems bent on opening schools, even as cases continue to climb. And the only solution that's somehow going to stop things from climbing more as we go about trying to open up again (and open more,) is that everyone must wear masks.

You can say "Why not?" till you're blue in the face. I've been surrounded by people shouting reasons for 'why not' for months now. It's never going to be a reality here. People will unfortunately have to learn the hard way what this is really all about. I have yet to see a good solution to it. These people do not operate on facts, or even basic regard for other people. I work at a school that is staying open for daycare. Nobody but me is wearing a mask around people. Very little sanitizing is happening. Our leadership has offered no guidance or rules. And this is a theme I see with businesses that are open. Many have signs up, but nobody is turning away the business right now, fearing another closure is coming anyway.

The masks would help, if people would wear them. For us in south Florida, that effectively renders them next to useless, like an umbrella to stop a tidal wave. Passing a law is not enough to change things here in any meaningful way. I do think that's softball... when pretty much all they have to say is "Wear a mask because it's the law." Says to me they know they've already lost people on wearing them. The people who didn't wear them before haven't changed their minds. They push harder now. And this influences how things go for us, sadly.

 

[Space Lynx]

Florida will be one of the first to be wiped out when we get a new 1918 level Flu again. It will happen within our lifetimes I suspect, COVID-19 is just a little taste of what is coming. Pretty much every scientists and Bill Gates have been warning about a pandemic for years now, I think COVID-19 is really just preliminary and we will see it mutate at some point. If not mutate, than the flu will eventually. It is only a matter of time really. It won't just make old people sick, it will wipe out lets see 40 million - to 1918 population scale it for 6 billion humans, and there is your answer. lol but because COVID-19 inflated the ego's of these 98% asymptomatic people they won't believe the media, and it will wipe people out fast lol

humans are an interesting species, that is certain.

 

[moproblems99]

Florida will be one of the first to be wiped out when we get a new 1918 level Flu again.

If it follows this one, it will be New York, New Jersey, and Michigan first. Florida will be in the first 10 though

 

[Space Lynx]

If it follows this one, it will be New York, New Jersey, and Michigan first. Florida will be in the first 10 though

I still will never understand how cities like NYC, Tokyo, LA even exist. The logistics behind feeding and sewage for that dense of a population is absolutely mind boggling to me. I imagine COVID-19 has shown how quickly those types of densely urban areas can completely fall apart, not deaths either, just pure ability to survive if shit hits the fan. Living in a small town in middle of nowhere Midwest, my life really hasn't changed at all, not one bit the entire year. I go for my bike ride daily, I come home, game, I just wear a mask at grocery store that's it. As far as toilet paper shortages go, I never worried about it, I figured if I ran out, I would just hop in shower and bend over with water setting on max, easy peasy. Humans have become weak. Wear a mask when around a lot of people, it's really simple. Too many idiots here though, lol

 

[robot zombie]

I still will never understand how cities like NYC, Tokyo, LA even exist. The logistics behind feeding and sewage for that dense of a population is absolutely mind boggling to me. I imagine COVID-19 has shown how quickly those types of densely urban areas can completely fall apart, not deaths either, just pure ability to survive if shit hits the fan. Living in a small town in middle of nowhere Midwest, my life really hasn't changed at all, not one bit the entire year. I go for my bike ride daily, I come home, game, I just wear a mask at grocery store that's it. As far as toilet paper shortages go, I never worried about it, I figured if I ran out, I would just hop in shower and bend over with water setting on max, easy peasy. Humans have become weak. Wear a mask when around a lot of people, it's really simple. Too many idiots here though, lol

I can understand it if you live in a large city. Often that is a lifestyle with a lot more interlocking parts, many of them being public. So more of your life is different than not. Still a mask is a tiny thing, but sometimes I think it's not actually about the mask, but what it symbolizes in the person's life. If they accept the mask, they have to accept the rest of the whole ugly picture... which might be something they've been putting off for months now. And the thing is, your brain will tell you the fear is something else because it's trying to shield you. You won't know that it's the whole thing eating away... it can just be the mask, because you can chew the smaller bites easier. That's just the mind holding onto some semblance of a complete picture with room for hope. When the big picture is messy, our apertures tighten down until it isn't. It's just existential stress built up over months of uncertainty, missteps, crisscrossing information, political division, lack of resources, loss of income (or threat of,) loss of direct contact with closest social support network. Lose one too many of those things and suddenly life isn't what you thought it was, and reason goes out the window as your brain starts doing back flips to try and resolve it. And then you start seeing sudden arguments that are awfully convenient for the people making them... I think people just start reaching when they hit critical stress mass.

Mental health awareness is still not good in the US. There is a severe lack of options... many people out there really struggle to manage their emotions and don't even know it. Worse yet, it's normalized to everyone around them. Typically everything is fine... but then the rubber hits the road and you realize "Oh... they have a problem." We all kind of have a lot to learn about how to self regulate and just be aware of how easy it is to get completely pulled aside when all of these background things are weighing in. It's sinister stuff... you know there's a bunch of little things bothering you. But maybe you say it isn't important - big thing first. Problem is, not dealing with those little things in a healthy way affects how you percieve the big thing. Could be dread/grief, anger, denial. The inability to process these things is a result of poor mental upkeep. Mental health is more than just disorders. What I'd say these people have going on is the mental equivalent to a poor diet. They're mentally obese and it's killing them.

Point being... and funnily enough I remember learning about this when we got into germ theory in middle school... the most vital tool you have in dealing with a disease crisis (or any crisis) is a composed, united, and informed populace. What we have instead is a grossly misinformed and world-weary populace with very little trust to go around. And like the cornered animals they are, they fend for themselves.

 

[harm9963]

I still will never understand how cities like NYC, Tokyo, LA even exist. The logistics behind feeding and sewage for that dense of a population is absolutely mind boggling to me. I imagine COVID-19 has shown how quickly those types of densely urban areas can completely fall apart, not deaths either, just pure ability to survive if shit hits the fan. Living in a small town in middle of nowhere Midwest, my life really hasn't changed at all, not one bit the entire year. I go for my bike ride daily, I come home, game, I just wear a mask at grocery store that's it. As far as toilet paper shortages go, I never worried about it, I figured if I ran out, I would just hop in shower and bend over with water setting on max, easy peasy. Humans have become weak. Wear a mask when around a lot of people, it's really simple. Too many idiots here though, lol

A country boy can survive, times are a coming !

The preacher man says it's the end of time
And the Mississippi River, she's a-goin' dry
The interest is up and the stock market's down
And you only get mugged if you go downtown
I live back in the woods you see
My woman and the kids and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun, a rifle and a four-wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I can plow a field all day long
I can catch catfish from dusk 'til dawn (Yeah)
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too
Ain't too many things these old boys can't do
We grow good-ole tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
Because you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
'Cause we're them old boys raised on shotguns
We say grace, and we say ma'am
If you ain't into that, we don't give a damn
We came from the West Virginia coal mines
And the Rocky Mountains, and the western skies
And we can skin a buck, we can run a trot line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I had a good friend in New York City
He never called me by my name, just Hillbilly
My grandpa taught me how to live off the land
And his taught him to be a businessman
He used to send me pictures of the Broadway nights
And I'd send him some homemade wine
But he was killed by a man with a switchblade knife
For 43 dollars, my friend lost his life
I'd love to spit some Beech-Nut in that dude's eyes
And shoot him with my old .45
'Cause a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
'Cause you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
'Cause we're them old boys raised on shotguns
We say grace, and we say ma'am
If you ain't into that, we don't give a damn
We're from North California and South Alabam'
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck, and run a trotline
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
A country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
Source: Musixmatch

Songwriters: Hank Jr. Williams

 

[dragontamer5788]

As much as I appreciate the ideals behind it, it's a band aid on a gunshot wound, and the fragments are still inside.

Its a fair bit better than that.

No matter what measure you take, even if its a half-assed measure, it is applied exponentially over the growth curve of the virus. Lets say the 60% masks are used correctly by 50% of the population, and only 40% of your Florida population actually wears masks. That's a total effectiveness of 12%, sounds tiny, doesn't it?

But that's a 12% reduction to cases per growth period, which is roughly 7 days for COVID19. That means this week, you'll see 11% fewer cases. Next week, you'll see 21% fewer cases. The week after that, you'll see 29% fewer cases compared to doing nothing. This property holds no matter what "effectiveness percent" you feel any particular measure is, and it multiplies with all other measures you take.

Besides, Florida is still in far better straights than early NYC. NYC had a 30% growth day-over-day (compounded) for a month. Florida is tracking like 30% growth per week. The fact of the matter is, Florida is way better than March NYC days. People have taken noticed, and the virus grows far slower than it did than initially. Not everyone is a cov-idiot, even in the state of "Florida-man".

---------

Don't get me wrong, its better to apply the measure full-assed rather than half-assed. A 30% reduction is exponentially better than a 15% reduction in cases (especially because the difference is once again: compounded over every COVID19 generation).

 

[Space Lynx]

A country boy can survive, times are a coming !

The preacher man says it's the end of time
And the Mississippi River, she's a-goin' dry
The interest is up and the stock market's down
And you only get mugged if you go downtown
I live back in the woods you see
My woman and the kids and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun, a rifle and a four-wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I can plow a field all day long
I can catch catfish from dusk 'til dawn (Yeah)
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too
Ain't too many things these old boys can't do
We grow good-ole tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
Because you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
'Cause we're them old boys raised on shotguns
We say grace, and we say ma'am
If you ain't into that, we don't give a damn
We came from the West Virginia coal mines
And the Rocky Mountains, and the western skies
And we can skin a buck, we can run a trot line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I had a good friend in New York City
He never called me by my name, just Hillbilly
My grandpa taught me how to live off the land
And his taught him to be a businessman
He used to send me pictures of the Broadway nights
And I'd send him some homemade wine
But he was killed by a man with a switchblade knife
For 43 dollars, my friend lost his life
I'd love to spit some Beech-Nut in that dude's eyes
And shoot him with my old .45
'Cause a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
'Cause you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
'Cause we're them old boys raised on shotguns
We say grace, and we say ma'am
If you ain't into that, we don't give a damn
We're from North California and South Alabam'
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck, and run a trotline
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
A country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
Source: Musixmatch

Songwriters: Hank Jr. Williams

huh? Florida has some of the densest population spots in the country in multiple cities. I am referring to macro management, not country rural folk. Think of it as a scale... actually nm, I don't care anymore, gl to you all lol.

 

[robot zombie]

Its a fair bit better than that.

No matter what measure you take, even if its a half-assed measure, it is applied exponentially over the growth curve of the virus. Lets say the 60% masks are used correctly by 50% of the population, and only 40% of your Florida population actually wears masks. That's a total effectiveness of 12%, sounds tiny, doesn't it?

But that's a 12% reduction to cases per growth period, which is roughly 7 days for COVID19. That means this week, you'll see 11% fewer cases. Next week, you'll see 21% fewer cases. The week after that, you'll see 29% fewer cases compared to doing nothing. This property holds no matter what "effectiveness percent" you feel any particular measure is, and it multiplies with all other measures you take.

Besides, Florida is still in far better straights than early NYC. NYC had a 30% growth day-over-day (compounded) for a month. Florida is tracking like 30% growth per week. The fact of the matter is, Florida is way better than March NYC days. People have taken noticed, and the virus grows far slower than it did than initially. Not everyone is a cov-idiot, even in the state of "Florida-man".

Fair enough. I can only say based on what I have seen where I live, and the handful of times I've been to West Palm, not much has changed from before. Not everyone who doesn't go along is a covidiot either. They're actually just behind or misinformed. Due to the back-and-forth they tune it out and wait. I was there when things first reopened and it seemed like everyone around just forgot it was a thing. So I hope you understand why I don't have a lot of faith in my fellow Florida-man. I'm telling you, the news is finally getting it right on masks now - the info is out there, and it's like nobody cares anymore.

Though also to be fair, not being as bad as one of the worst spots to date isn't saying much. I have my concerns about how things will go if more people don't come around. And there is still the question of other measures. I don't think I'm understanding this compound reduction mechanism. I'm imagining RPG buffs. Say you have a 'mask' buff that will reduce MP reduction from covid status, or makes the status go away in 12% less time. Could you not also be hit with a 'superspreader' buff that increases the reduction/expiration time by another 30%?

It just seems like it wouldn't necessarily double each time, but rather you will see 12% fewer cases than you would have in what could still be a spike due to other factors elevating risks, such as people completely disregarding all of it. If more people were to put on masks, I would understand how a gradual decline would be possible. But if the amount of people wearing them doesn't change much, that leaves a group of people quite a lot more susceptible, who will contract and spread it at a rate potentially greater than the people wearing masks and such can reduce it, as people become more active. Say we go into an opening phase and it goes very badly. Growth per uptick increases by an extra 30%. Where is that 12% reduction from masks then? Factor it out and you have an 18% uptick, which if things were left unchanged, should continue until a saturation point is hit as per the population density. Right?

Like I said, legit not trying to nitpick, but I'm not following the logic. At least I can admit I don't understand

 

[dragontamer5788]

Though also to be fair, not being as bad as one of the worst spots to date isn't saying much.

The NYC case in March is consistent with the growth around the world: be it Wuhan China, Princess Diamond cruise ship, or Italy. The R0 growth of this virus is damn close to 3 (with official studies citing somewhere between 2.2 through 6). The R0 value isn't technically a "constant", but its closely related all around the world. If the R-value is reduced today, its because something is slowing down the spread. And Florida has an R value far below 3.

I would understand how a gradual decline would be possible.

A gradual comparative decline.

Given Florida's current ~30% growth/week, that suggest an R-value of something around 1.3 or so (every infected person, on the average, infects 1.3 other people in the week).

So lets say you have 1000 cases today. With current measures, you'd be at 1300 cases next week, 1690 the week after that, 2197 the week after that, etc. etc. Substitute death statistics, hospitalization statistics, it doesn't matter. All of them would grow at approximately this exponential curve.

Now lets say you had 12% effective masks deployed (60% base cotton mask effectiveness. 50% of people use it wrong. Only 40% of the population even attempt to use it). What happens then? Well, instead of growing to 1300, you grow to 1160 in a week. The week after that, instead of growing to 1690, you're growing to only 1347. The week after that, you're at 1563 instead of 2197 (an improvement of 29%).

To actually decline, a location must drop the R value below 1.0. If its impossible (due to too many covidiots, or other situations), then reducing R as much as possible has an exponential benefit. R == 1.2 is exponentially better than R == 1.4

-----------

EDIT: The joy of exponential growth: all mitigation measures exponentially grow in effectiveness over time. Even half-assed measures.

 

[robot zombie]

The NYC case in March is consistent with the growth around the world: be it Wuhan China, Princess Diamond cruise ship, or Italy. The R0 growth of this virus is damn close to 3 (with official studies citing somewhere between 2.2 through 6). The R0 value isn't technically a "constant", but its closely related all around the world. If the R-value is reduced today, its because something is slowing down the spread. And Florida has an R value far below 3.



A gradual comparative decline.

Given Florida's current ~30% growth/week, that suggest an R-value of something around 1.3 or so (every infected person, on the average, infects 1.3 other people in the week).

So lets say you have 1000 cases today. With current measures, you'd be at 1300 cases next week, 1690 the week after that, 2197 the week after that, etc. etc. Substitute death statistics, hospitalization statistics, it doesn't matter. All of them would grow at approximately this exponential curve.

Now lets say you had 12% effective masks deployed (60% base cotton mask effectiveness. 50% of people use it wrong. Only 40% of the population even attempt to use it). What happens then? Well, instead of growing to 1300, you grow to 1160 in a week. The week after that, instead of growing to 1690, you're growing to only 1347. The week after that, you're at 1563 instead of 2197 (an improvement of 29%).

To actually decline, a location must drop the R value below 1.0. If its impossible (due to too many covidiots, or other situations), then reducing R as much as possible has an exponential benefit. R == 1.2 is exponentially better than R == 1.4

Ahh, okay, so I do get what you're saying. That's basically what I was getting at. It would climb at a slower rate, and over time this culminates in fewer cases by increasing margins - a shallower curve. But that would still mean more time and more cases before getting back at it. I'm thinking of things in terms of actually getting over the hump. 1.2 is still an increase from week to week, even if it is exponentially less. And things could always happen that would bring it back up. To me that's not good enough and more would be needed than seems to be on the table in the state of Florida right now. It would take more to continue dropping that r-value. The way I see it, there are some things in play that stand to lower it, such as mandating masks. Perhaps after some more grumbling people will follow. But we're also looking at doing things like opening schools so we can also get more people back to work, which could just as easily offset that r-value reduction and leave us back where we started. Still lower than it would've been with masks than without, but ultimately leaving more to do to get it down.

If anything, we just aren't doing quite enough to move forward. Masks will help, but the question is how much. The human element makes it hard to know that right now.

I do still think it's better than nothing. Every life counts. I wish everyone would just do it, and practice all of the other little measures while they're at it! Maybe this time next month things will be different. I have some hope... just not as much faith, heh.

 

[HTC]

Found this interesting video bout the effectiveness of masks @ Anandtech forums but it's not from Youtube and i don't know how to link it, so i'll use the topic's post instead:

PBS Science shows how well masks prevent the spread of Covid19

Some dumbasses (lets call them "conservatives") have been saying that 'masks don't work' because covid is so small that it can go through the holes of the mask, but this show shows that covid is often trapped in liquid molecules and masks prevent those molecules from spraying all over the place.

forums.anandtech.com

This video uses an advanced imaging technique called schlieren visualization to show you why masks work.

 

[the54thvoid]

The Lancet (UK medical journal) has release an empirical analysis of 172 transmission studies (June2020).

Findings:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

Greatest reduction in transmission is distance. 1 metre provides significant risk reduction, greater distances, even more so.
Masks (face coverings) are also indicated as positive steps, more research required with randomised trials (ethically difficult). However, masks do provide protection.
Eye coverings are also mentioned.
And hygiene.

But as we all know - the greatest protection is distance (which is why medics need N95 masks). And why we had lockdowns.

The study does state there is no 100% way to stop it, which is also pretty much known - it's always abeen about risk. Distance, masks, hygiene; they all play a role.

Walking down the street, folk walking past - low risk
In a shop, folk nearby (not in your face) - low risk
In a house, chatting with friends (seated apart) - low risk
House party, pub, nightclub; shouting, crammed in - high risk.

Wearing a mask in a nightclub wont help. But in a house, or enclosed space with others, yes, the study suggests it will be beneficial. But the risk there is already low.

I've been shopping at our supermarket for 3 months - no mask. It's not busy, but then, I do walk by people. But I guess I'm one-metre away. In 3 months, there's been no outbreak (we'd be told if there was). It is a bit backwards that now I'll need to wear a mask in that place (unless they plan on letting in more folk, to increase possible transmission sources). But if it's still got limited capacity, I dont see the point.

 

[Vayra86]

I'm really glad we got to a more open and constructive viewpoint on masks in general, encouraging to see the last page of back and forth. Back to them stats

 

[the54thvoid]

I'm really glad we got to a more open and constructive viewpoint on masks in general, encouraging to see the last page of back and forth. Back to them stats

It's the internet effect. Everything plays a role but perhaps some get caught up in absolutes. If you have a contagious disease, my first action is to tell you to get away from me. No contact = no risk. But if you insist on coming close, I'm sticking a bag over my head. Then I'll kick you.

 

[harm9963]

“Additional staff is our primary need,” said Donna Richardson, chief nursing officer for Parkland Health and Hospital System.

Texas hospitals are running out of drugs, beds, ventilators and even staff

Many Texas hospitals are no longer accepting transfer patients in order to maintain space for a surge that’s expected to come. In some parts of the state, it’s already here.

www.texastribune.org

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 467051 confirmed infected --- 233 more
- 31550 recovered --- 485 more
- 1668 fatalities --- 6 more
- 408951 suspected cases --- 2539 more
- 1360164 tests taken --- 43739 more - last updated July 11th
- 1472 waiting for test results --- 181 more
- 34641 under watch from authorities --- 340 more
- 472 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 69 in ICU --- 6 more

On a personal note, since my COVID-19 test came back negative and my symptoms are subsiding, i'm no longer under watch from authorities, though i'm still not allowed to return to work until the middle of next week, just in case my test was a false negative.

 

[moproblems99]

Phew, good thing this isn't a problem at all...makes me wonder if we really are having 15,000 cases a day or 2-3000 like we always did.

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/f...-confirm-mistakes-in-floridas-covid-19-report

Countless labs have reported a 100 percent positivity rate, which means every single person tested was positive. Other labs had very high positivity rates. FOX 35 found that testing sites like Centra Care reported that 83 people were tested and all tested positive. Then, NCF Diagnostics in Alachua reported 88 percent of tests were positive.

The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.