Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[John Naylor]

I would expect folks on a tech forum to analyze the science ... but science dictates that every hypothesis be tested and we do have real world data to look at .. and what do we see

1, The states w/ high high mask compliance are on a downslope. Positivity is down, infection rate compared to previous week is down, deaths down. In the states with poor compliance rates ... the ones hosting "Coronavirus parties", and ignoring // protesting masks COVID is exploding.

2. If you look at the states where the virus is expanding ... look up those states educational rankings for an interesting correlation.... also look at the red / blue maps from the 2016 election.

3. I don't get the comments on mask availability ... have you been in a Home Deport lately ?.... N95 masks available in 5 packs for $15. I call each store before leaving the house, if they don't enforce a must wear mask policy, I'll shop somewhere else. Otherwise I'll ask for curbside pickup.

4. As for the supermarkets ... distance isn't going to mean beans if you're touching a freezer / fridge door touched 3 minutes ago by an infected person.

Of course for the best / most innovative protection, visit: http://www.peopleofwalmart.com/

https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/107738735_3108467999241841_2278842164850339814_o.jpg

https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/0-2.jpeg

https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/page/4/?s=%3Cscript%3Ealert%280%29%3C%2Fscript%3E

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https://www.peopleofwalmart.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/104874336_10223668428163918_5749136153967059032_n.jpg

 

[dragontamer5788]

3. I don't get the comments on mask availability ... have you been in a Home Deport lately ?.... N95 masks available in 5 packs for $15.

N95 - Respirator Masks - The Home Depot

Get free shipping on qualified N95 Respirator Masks products or Buy Online Pick Up in Store today in the Safety Equipment Department.

www.homedepot.com

I checked every home depot store in my area, they're all out of N95 masks. This must be some kind of local issue that's unique to my area (or maybe unique to your area).

4. As for the supermarkets ... distance isn't going to mean beans if you're touching a freezer / fridge door touched 3 minutes ago by an infected person.

Touching COVID19 with your fingers / hands is bad. But the COVID virus still needs to enter your lungs before its activated. If you use hand-sanitizer regularly, you'll be fine.

The issue is that many people fumble with their masks. Ex: touch a fridge door, touch their mask, and bam, now you got virus in your mask. Hand-sanitizer before, and after, touching the mask. Doctors and nurses train themselves to never touch their mask, and we too should learn this habit.

COVID19 on your hands means its one step closer to infecting you. But its not "endgame" yet. Nurses and doctors get COVID19 all over their hands, clothes, and selves each and every day while treating COVID19 patients. Heck, I'm sure they breath in some COVID19 (again: N95 masks still let in 5% of the virus). COVID19 isn't even the most infectious disease: its got an R0 of 3. This isn't measles (R0 of 15+), its "only" twice as infectious as the flu. Its not some magic "lightsaber" that instantly infects you if you make a mistake.

The name of the game is multiple layers of protection. For the typical layperson, we're talking handwashing, hand-sanitizer (before and after touching masks), and masks. For nurses / doctors, they need to strip naked outside of their house, bleach their clothes and take a shower immediately upon entry to prevent contamination (The summer sun probably has enough heat, UV-A, and UV-B to destroy viruses. EDIT: UV-C is blocked by Ozone-layer, or else humans would die too). Typical lay-people probably don't need to reach that level of paranoia.

--------------

Good news: COVID19 is a virus, which means it has no protections against the environment. Heat, humidity, UV-rays, alcohol, and soap... they all kill the virus extremely easily. (Bacteria in contrast, have cell-walls, capsules, and spores that make them very hard to kill). Furthermore, COVID19 is an RNA virus (not the more stable DNA), meaning its easier to kill than other viruses. Our habits can have a gross-effect on mitigating the spread of COVID19 and protecting ourselves.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Good news: COVID19 is a virus, which means it has no protections against the environment. Heat, humidity, UV-rays, alcohol, and soap... they all kill the virus extremely easily. (Bacteria in contrast, have cell-walls, capsules, and spores that make them very hard to kill). Furthermore, COVID19 is an RNA virus (not the more stable DNA), meaning its easier to kill than other viruses. Our habits can have a gross-effect on mitigating the spread of COVID19 and protecting ourselves.

And yet, unlike most other Influenza type viruses, it is positively thriving in the summer and also in the worlds very hottest climates, we had all better hope that infection rates have reached a negligible level before winter comes or there could possibly be considerably more trouble on the horizon...……….. happy days!

 

[dragontamer5788]

And yet, unlike most other Influenza type viruses, it is positively thriving in the summer and also in the worlds very hottest climates, we had all better hope that infection rates have reached a negligible level before winter comes or there could possibly be considerably more trouble on the horizon...……….. happy days!

Agreed. There's something concerning that its spreading this much even in the summer.

But as I stated earlier in this thread: its spreading significantly slower than the March spread here in the USA. Back in March, the virus was growing 30% a day, but now, its only growing 30% per week (aka: 4% per day). The summer heat probably has an effect (but its really impossible to perform any real study on this hypothesis).

EDIT: There's the "reverse heat" theory. Because temperatures go up in the summer, more Americans go inside to cool off. The Spring / Fall was safer because its cool enough to stay outside without A/C, so many meetups were outside. Summer meetups are overwhelmingly inside, giving more room to spread the virus.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Agreed. There's something concerning that its spreading this much even in the summer.

But as I stated earlier in this thread: its spreading significantly slower than the March spread here in the USA. Back in March, the virus was growing 30% a day, but now, its only growing 30% per week (aka: 4% per day). The summer heat probably has an effect (but its really impossible to perform any real study on this hypothesis).

Or maybe because you have had a lockdown and a large proportion of the population is at least a little more knowledgeable and cautious than they were back in the early days?

 

[dragontamer5788]

Or maybe because you have had a lockdown and a large proportion of the population is at least a little more knowledgeable and cautious than they were back in the early days?

Well, yeah. Lots of reasons. I don't want to deny that.

But given the base mechanics (ie: RNA is highly volatile and sensitive to heat. COVID19 is an RNA-type virus. Etc. etc.), "it only makes sense" that it'd be weakened by summer heat. We will probably never get a scientific result on this question (at least... in time for it to matter). But that's my personal working assumption.

 

[moproblems99]

Agreed. There's something concerning that its spreading this much even in the summer.

I'm not saying it was engineered in a lab but it was engineered in a lab. /S

But given the base mechanics (ie: RNA is highly volatile and sensitive to heat. COVID19 is an RNA-type virus. Etc. etc.), "it only makes sense" that it'd be weakened by summer heat. We will probably never get a scientific result on this question (at least... in time for it to matter). But that's my personal working assumption.

If summer heat killing it was a thing it would not have spread in Florida. Our winter is your summer.

 

[dragontamer5788]

If summer hear killing it was a thing it would not have spread in Florida. Our winter is your summer.

Reverse-heat theory. People go inside when its hot. That's where the virus spreads.

When its 70F outside, people meetup outside (Ex: Basketball or Tennis). When its 100F outside, people stop playing tennis and start drinking at air-conditioned bars.

Its unconfirmed, but that's the best explanation I've heard about the current mechanics and why its spreading in the hot south right now. (Yeah yeah, people want to bring politics into the discussion. But people overemphasize the difference between red-states and blue states. 49% of people voted for Trump and 47.8% voted for Clinton in Florida. There's not THAT many more Republicans down there to really make a big difference). The difference between a "Red State" and "Blue State" is like, +/- 5% across the population. I don't believe that's a substantial difference and prefer the more "natural" theories of mechanics (such as the reverse heat theory) to describe the current phenomenon.

With that being said: the governor was a bit slow with mask requirements and shutdowns. So the Florida population is behind with regards to mask usage and taking this threat seriously. Hmmm... its hard to make a solid opinion. There's lots of conflating evidence here and a lot of it is political.

 

[the54thvoid]

I'm not saying it was engineered in a lab but it was engineered in a lab. /S



If summer hear killing it was a thing it would not have spread in Florida. Our winter is your summer.

Read your post. Read my thread-ban trigger 'point'. Then saw the sign...

 

[moproblems99]

Read your post. Read my thread-ban trigger 'point'. Then saw the sign...

View attachment 162252

I even capitalized it, I lie Google autocorrect capitalized it.

Reverse-heat theory. People go inside when its hot. That's where the virus spreads.

When its 70F outside, people meetup outside (Ex: Basketball or Tennis). When its 100F outside, people stop playing tennis and start drinking at air-conditioned bars.

Yes and no. A lot of us here like the warmth and skin cancer. We just grab a bottle of water to go with the beer when we leave the house in the morning.

 

[harm9963]

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[robot zombie]

I even capitalized it, I lie Google autocorrect capitalized it.



Yes and no. A lot of us here like the warmth and skin cancer. We just grab a bottle of water to go with the beer when we leave the house in the morning.

Can attest. Summer is beach/boat time. The sun is hot, but the water's not and the snowbirds have long melted. All people really want to do here is hunt, fish, and swim.

Interestingly enough, I don't know a single person who hasn't had at least one basal cell carcinoma removed from somewhere. I'm probably about to have one taken off of my face. 30's about the right age. Had stage 1 melanoma scooped out of my back when I was around 10. We live outside as children. That's probably part of why we are... the way we are.

But wait... I wonder how the snowbirds factor in. Florida probably absorbs a good million people every winter. Fewer will come this year, I'm sure. In certain areas, it's probably a big chunk of the population. They only like certain places. Usually smaller southern coastal cities and towns. My county explodes with people every winter. That's a logistical factor I don't think too many have considered, outside of when seemingly all of them brought their families down to their winter homes here when things first struck hard in NYC. I'd expect at this point most left when they had the chance. But how many stayed? How many will stay this winter? I know in my own area, that could change quite a lot of things for us.

Unfortunately this is hard to know. Things are murky when it comes to counting temporary residents and the way different municipalities draw estimates. It's enough that our local economy and government sort of depend on it. Not enough to keep proper track of, I guess

 

[dragontamer5788]

Big jump in Maryland hospitalizations over the last 2 days. As stated before: 3-days is a trend, but... its not looking good at all. %Positive remains in the ~4.5ish% region for roughly a month, and gives me a source of optimism. (If %Positive is constant, it seems unlikely for "true cases" to be getting worse). Its a contradictory sign for sure.

 

[Tatty_Two]

New confirmed cases seems very high though, is that 756 figure for 24 hours?

 

[dragontamer5788]

New confirmed cases seems very high though, is that 756 figure for 24 hours?

Yeah, that's 24-hours.

But testing volume is way up recently. Maryland keeps getting more and more tests available. It seems like every time we double testing, we double the number of confirmed cases. I almost discount confirmed cases because its mostly a function of how many tests were done in the region, as opposed to actually detecting the virus.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Yeah, that's 24-hours.

But testing volume is way up recently. Maryland keeps getting more and more tests available. It seems like every time we double testing, we double the number of confirmed cases. I almost discount confirmed cases because its mostly a function of how many tests were done in the region, as opposed to actually detecting the virus.

We are doing the same but that does seem high for a state with a population of just over 6 million, we are averaging 500 - 600 new infections a day in the UK but we have over 66 million, there is a lot we have not got right but I assume you are no longer in lockdown? We are out of lockdown now pretty much completely so the next couple of weeks will tell for us maybe.

 

[dragontamer5788]

We are doing the same but that does seem high for a state with a population of just over 6 million, we are averaging 500 - 600 new infections a day in the UK but we have over 66 million, there is a lot we have not got right but I assume you are no longer in lockdown? We are out of lockdown now pretty much completely so the next couple of weeks will tell for us maybe.

We're in phase 2 reopening.

Many things remain closed, but its not "full open" yet. Its beginning to look like phase 2 was a step too far in the reopening path. We might have to rollback to phase 1.

What Phase2 means here: Restaurants are open for dine-in. But only ~10 people are allowed at a time. Churches were opened up, but only at 50% capacity (and in practice, it means that you have to reserve your spot in church before coming in). Phase 1 had churches remain closed / restaurants as drive through / carry out only. Bishop has kept the declaration that church remains optional in phase 2.

 

[harm9963]

Texas hospitals on the brink of collapse as coronavirus cases surge

In Hidalgo County, ambulances have been waiting as long as 10 hours to deliver patients to packed emergency rooms

www.independent.co.uk

 

[dragontamer5788]

@harm9963 Hmmm, looking into the Texas situation... it seems like local cities / counties were locking down individually. What's the state of your lockdown over there?

Maryland Gov. Hogan urges crackdown on bars and restaurants as coronavirus cases surge among young people

With cases surging among young adults in Maryland, Gov. Larry Hogan is pressing local health officials to more strictly enforce regulations aimed at bars and restaurants. More than 100 new cases pe…

www.baltimoresun.com

Looks like Marylands near term plan is to remain in phase 2, but send more officers in to close restaurants / bars who are failing to comply with the phase 2 guidelines.

“An increasing number of COVID-19 cases have been connected to non-compliance with public health requirements particularly in bars and restaurants,” Hogan wrote in a letter to county leaders Tuesday. “We cannot allow a small segment of willful violators to squander the collective efforts of the overwhelming majority of Maryland citizens and businesses.”

More than half of Maryland’s 733 new coronavirus cases Tuesday — the most in one day since early June — were among people less than 40 years old. In addition, people under 35 have a testing positivity rate 84% higher than those above 35, according to Hogan’s letter.

 

[harm9963]

@harm9963 Hmmm, looking into the Texas situation... it seems like local cities / counties were locking down individually. What's the state of your lockdown over there?

Houston is my home, Harris county lock down , stay home for now, furlough , work for the Houston Astros , lost two coworkers this week , just notified , if someone told me a year ago after the World Series , world events would take my coworkers lives , would have thought theme mad !

 

[dragontamer5788]

Houston is my home, Harris county lock down , stay home for now, furlough , work for the Houston Astros , lost two coworkers this week , just notified , if someone told me a year ago after the World Series , world events would take my coworkers lives , would have thought theme mad !

Condolences.

The good news is that Texas has begun to take steps to fight back against COVID19. The bad news is that it took Maryland roughly ~1 month before those steps took effect. The good news is that Texas's rise in COVID-cases is much slower and shallower compared to Maryland's rise back in March.

Maryland (in March) vs Texas (today) is going to be very different. But hopefully the comparison can give you some idea of what is to come.

 

[harm9963]

Harris county is a state onto its self , 4.7 million people ,plus undocumented , Texas 29 million people ,plus undocumented.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 47426 confirmed infected --- 375 more
- 32110 recovered --- 560 more
- 1676 fatalities --- 8 more
- 411293 suspected cases --- 2342 more
- 1366864 tests taken --- 5913 more - last updated July 12th
- 1550 waiting for test results --- 78 more
- 35316 under watch from authorities --- 675 more
- 478 hospitalized --- 6 more
- 68 in ICU --- 1 less

 

[Tatty_Two]

UK Update as at 15th July:

 

[the54thvoid]

Just to add to UK numbers, Scotland's had zero deaths for 7 days in a row. I think we've got a handful in ICU. Maybe single digits.