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Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

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We're in phase 2 reopening.

Many things remain closed, but its not "full open" yet. Its beginning to look like phase 2 was a step too far in the reopening path. We might have to rollback to phase 1.

What Phase2 means here: Restaurants are open for dine-in. But only ~10 people are allowed at a time. Churches were opened up, but only at 50% capacity (and in practice, it means that you have to reserve your spot in church before coming in). Phase 1 had churches remain closed / restaurants as drive through / carry out only. Bishop has kept the declaration that church remains optional in phase 2.
Ah a fellow Marylander. Maybe it's the introvert in me but I think we reopened too much too early.
 
 
Ah a fellow Marylander. Maybe it's the introvert in me but I think we reopened too much too early.

Phase 1 reopening was safe though. We still had declining numbers throughout phase 1... and even declined in Phase2 for a long period of time.

1594915198872.png


Montgomery County was the site of infection#1 and was chosen somewhat arbitrarily. PG County is now in the worst case, but I just wanted to point out that "Maryland Phase 2" doesn't necessarily mean "all of Maryland". Individual counties made their own decisions when to advance to phase 2... Maryland itself had to open up to phase 2 before the individual counties could.
 
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Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-07-15 19-48-10.png Screenshot from 2020-07-16 19-29-42.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 47765 confirmed infected --- 339 more
- 32426 recovered --- 316 more
- 1679 fatalities --- 3 more
- 413498 suspected cases --- 2205 more
- 1396902 tests taken --- 30048 more - last updated July 14th
- 1542 waiting for test results --- 8 less
- 34898 under watch from authorities --- 418 less
- 476 hospitalized --- 2 less
- 72 in ICU --- 4 more
 
This is the under belly ! Alfonso Sarat, 47, had developed a persistent cough days before, and felt so fatigued he had fallen asleep in his car between shifts as a dishwasher and kitchen assistant at two different restaurants. But he couldn’t afford to see a doctor and was fearful of exposing himself as living in the U.S. illegally.
 
Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-07-16 19-29-42.png Screenshot from 2020-07-17 21-09-58.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48077 confirmed infected --- 312 more
- 32790 recovered --- 314 more
- 1682 fatalities --- 3 more
- 415851 suspected cases --- 2353 more
- 1413519 tests taken --- 16617 more - last updated July 15th
- 1735 waiting for test results --- 193 more
- 35150 under watch from authorities --- 161 more
- 447 hospitalized --- 29 less
- 67 in ICU --- 5 less
 
Harris county is a state onto its self , 4.7 million people ,plus undocumented , Texas 29 million people ,plus undocumented.

View attachment 162303

And that right there is the problem with all of those individual states, and then even regions within states. They all think they can do their thing even when there is overwhelming evidence you need a centralized, controlled approach to combating this.

First, NY fell, and everyone thought 'won't happen to me'.
Then it spread to other hubs and still the rest thought 'won't happen to me'....
Then it started moving across the country and still the countryside would think 'won't happen to me'...

What's next? Triage. Italy v2, except then the scenario times a wild number of individual states... Even post steep curve in neighbouring states, so, those healthcare systems have already taken a beating. Its like watching the house next door burn down spontaneously and not even stopping to wonder what the hell happened.

Absolutely mind blowing... someone said measures take about a month to take effect (which is true, 2 week + 2 week as the infected spread domestically)? The US has already shown it doesn't have the slightest patience to lock itself down for a month. At this rate, you will never subdue this to begin with. NY is up for a new round, soon. Better hold on to those masks... I get it now, its all you've really got. Damn..

I think it's time for the russian people to oust Putin and establish a legitimate for of government.

That's White Russia right now :). You have to understand Putin is like the Russian Trump, and he's in office too on a majority vote. Note all the similarities, as they are being added almost daily between these two countries as we speak.

Even if opposition in Russia isn't quiet either;

Ah a fellow Marylander. Maybe it's the introvert in me but I think we reopened too much too early.

That'd seem obvious. Once the first sign of a decline set in, people stopped being cautious, even with a storm raging. And then there is the cross-state influence as well. Looking at the US as individual states is still the most obvious mistake. That is also why the numbers per state don't often make a whole lot of sense and all of the analysis being done on the basis of them, is absolutely worthless in any general sense. Its an easy way to delude yourself into thinking some strange approach is going to work - which is the approach we see with all states doing whatever they think is best.

Compare it to Europe... we're effectively a continent of states too, but with more clearly defined national governments and those governments are also talking on a higher level (EU). The initial response was that of individual countries, and the EU was entirely pushed back to 'facilitate' whatever the states needed. Only after the initial panic did we start communicating, and that is when things started working in our favor again.

Even now the countries look and selectively open borders. It matters where you come from, as to how long you're getting and IF you are getting quarantined on arrival, for example. The flow of people is being controlled, monitored and constantly adapted to the latest reality in R numbers locally. Slowly but surely we're going towards an effective, pretty localized form of fully reopened society, keeping it managed above all else. I won't say we did things perfectly, but you do see how a state of relative control can be maintained if people just work together and if countries coordinate well. Note that this is talking about the period ever since March. We only opened since June, (Phase 1) and ever since July 1st its almost back to business as usual. That is not 4 weeks. Its more - much more.

Its those two key things: patience, and very cautious, controlled reopening with the constant idea it might pop back up, so you need contact tracing and test capacity available.
 
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Its an easy way to delude yourself into thinking some strange approach is going to work - which is the approach we see with all states doing whatever they think is best.

Anyone with a brain knew it wasn't going to work. But our current President is a dumbass. We can't expect Mr. Trump to take leadership in this situation. As such, we rely upon our governors and mayors to make the right choice.

Maryland cannot close its boarders to Florida. We have a super-highway and major train routes connecting our two states together. Those are under federal control (ie: Trump). My family friends own "summer homes" in Florida (multiple: this is super common). Despite the distance, Maryland and Florida are very close socially. Any disease in Florida will spread to Maryland. We need a truly country-wide approach for things to actually work. But a country-wide approach requires the cooperation of the President.

We'll make due with what we can get with our local governors. Its the best we can do, no point complaining about it beyond that. We just do the best that we can do given our circumstances.

----------

Maryland went into strict lockdown when there were fewer than 1500 cases in the state. We saw the exponential rise, we largely believed in science (anti-mask demonstrators excepted). We made the sacrifice. We're one of the first states to enter lockdown. But we're also next to the nation's capital: a huge amount of travel from across the country comes here. We cannot control those visitors, or the lockdown status of those states.

We only opened since June, (Phase 1) and ever since July 1st its almost back to business as usual.

This seems like a difference in "Phase 1" terminology. Phase 1 reopening in Maryland means all crowds of size 10 or more were banned still (except Churches. But churches largely stayed closed in my experience). This meant that stores could only allow 10-people (total) in at once. Haircuts were allowed, but by appointment only. Restaurant dining was completely banned. Phase 1 Maryland "reopening" was similar to the lockdowns that other states were at.

Phase 1 reopened playgrounds and public parks, allowing our citizens to walk outside. And for the most part, the science has shown that outside is in fact safer than inside. And given the graphs of what happened in our Phase 1 opening, I think phase 1 was a safe place to be.

Phase 2 just barely seems like we've reopened too much. We need something between Phase 1 and Phase 2. With the caseload increasing, and hospitalizations slowly inching back up, Phase 2 seems like a step too far now.

Compare it to Europe... we're effectively a continent of states too, but with more clearly defined national governments and those governments are also talking on a higher level (EU). The initial response was that of individual countries, and the EU was entirely pushed back to 'facilitate' whatever the states needed. Only after the initial panic did we start communicating, and that is when things started working in our favor again.

Aside from UK (which isn't part of Europe anymore), you guys don't have propaganda misleading your citizens on this matter. Even under the strict lockdowns, people were throwing COVID19 parties here in Maryland. We needed officers to be going around, ensuring that the lockdown was actually enforced.
 
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Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-07-17 21-09-58.png Screenshot from 2020-07-18 22-06-14.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48390 confirmed infected --- 313 more
- 33153 recovered --- 363 more
- 1684 fatalities --- 2 more
- 417996 suspected cases --- 2145 more
- 1413519 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 15th
- 1617 waiting for test results --- 118 less
- 35113 under watch from authorities --- 37 less
- 452 hospitalized --- 5 more
- 65 in ICU --- 2 less

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-07-18 22-06-14.png Screenshot from 2020-07-19 14-46-30.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48636 confirmed infected --- 246 more
- 33369 recovered --- 216 more
- 1689 fatalities --- 5 more
- 419408 suspected cases --- 1412 more
- 1413519 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 15th
- 1620 waiting for test results --- 3 more
- 35081 under watch from authorities --- 32 less
- 439 hospitalized --- 13 less
- 61 in ICU --- 4 less

Although with "some hiccups", hospitalized has been dropping lately.
 
1595168178184.png


Maryland seems to be tracking upwards now.

- 48636 confirmed infected --- 246 more
- 1689 fatalities --- 5 more
- 439 hospitalized --- 13 less
- 61 in ICU --- 4 less

Odd. Maryland's proportions are grossly different than Portugals.

* 78131 Cases (+925 change).
* 3247 Deaths (+9 change).
* 449 Hospitalized (+1 change).
* 131 ICU. (-6 change)

ICU, Deaths, and Cases suggest we're ~2x as bad as Portugal right now. But our hospitalization numbers are in the same magnitude. I wonder what is causing the difference? I'd expect the proportions to remain roughly the same across different geographies.

EDIT: I forgot to factor in the population. Portugal is 10-million, Maryland is 6-million. So maybe 4x as bad as Portugal, once population is factored in.


EDIT2: Not very odd now that I think of it. Cases / Deaths is the "integral" of infections. While hospitalization / ICU is the "current state" of infections. The infection, hospitalization, and fatalities are time-delayed versions of the state of infections.
 
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Aside from UK (which isn't part of Europe anymore), you guys don't have propaganda misleading your citizens on this matter. Even under the strict lockdowns, people were throwing COVID19 parties here in Maryland. We needed officers to be going around, ensuring that the lockdown was actually enforced.

Last weekend several illegal parties were stopped by police (+150 ppl), in the Netherlands, similar reports from out of Berlin (it is even condoned in a park/forest area near town, has been going on for months).

You don't really even need propaganda for people to be people. These things happen, the real question is how you handle them. Repression isn't always the answer, escalation most certainly is never the answer. Any government thinking it will force its citizens into obedience is doing it wrong. Unless they go full totalitarian state.

These things just happen and they always will, just like you will always have a percentage of criminal activity of any kind, or people who don't believe whatever you or I or anyone else says. The problem exists when other people think they need to care about that, when they really don't. Live and let live. Except with something as invisible such as this... that is a very tall order, really. Because letting live might mean others die, even if you might never know it. But then we do accept those deaths when it comes to a multitude of other things we just do... o_O
 
You don't really even need propaganda for people to be people. These things happen, the real question is how you handle them.
Agreed. Even without the rampant politicization of the fight against COVID, we still would've had our group of idiots being idiots. The problem is that we've got King Idiot encouraging the idiocy - calling for the "liberation" of people in states under lockdown, cutting US funding for research towards
coronaviruses, etc. It's clear that at a federal level, it's all (idiots included) being handled poorly.

I personally don't understand what the fuss is with having to stay home and wear a mask. People are out here acting like they've been asked to sign away their entire lives forever. They forget that if you were born a few generations ago, instead of being asked to wear a piece of cloth over their face and stay home, they would've had a weapon thrust into their hands and been shipped overseas to fight a war (in the case of the able-bodied men anyway) or been working in factories making ammo and other wartime essentials. God forbid you couldn't go out and get your weekly pumpkin spice latte at Starbucks with Karen though - you've really got it so tough :rolleyes:

I've seen coverage of other countries, Canada comes to mind, where people were happy to wear a mask and stay home. They felt it was their responsibility to their society. Unfortunately it seems like the US hasn't grown up enough to accept those responsibilities yet.
 
Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-07-19 14-46-30.png Screenshot from 2020-07-20 16-58-47.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48771 confirmed infected --- 135 more
- 33547 recovered --- 178 more
- 1691 fatalities --- 2 more
- 420635 suspected cases --- 1227 more
- 1466662 tests taken --- 53143 more - last updated July 19th
- 1560 waiting for test results --- 60 less
- 35073 under watch from authorities --- 8 less
- 454 hospitalized --- 15 more
- 61 in ICU --- no change

This is our lowest new daily infected cases number since May 11th. Also had a big jump in tests taken but that's because it's actually from 4 days and not just one, which is why i've been adding the "last updated" part to it.
 
We are getting closer.....................

And this looks promising too ..................

Finger's (and toes) crossed! :peace:

While i hope some drug can be found that reduces the need for hospitalization, something that speeds up recovery is also good because it gives hospitals more "breathing room" when cases numbers are high.

As for vaccines, while i understand the need for vaccines against this virus to be patented regardless of which vaccine ends up being the best, it's important that whoever ends up with the discovery isn't naive enough to keep the drug to whatever company discovers it but rather distributes it's secrets to manufacturers accoss the world as soon as possible, via licensing or whichever other methods they end up choosing.

Why? Because having 2 or 3 manufacturing sites (or however many the discovering company has) is grossly inefficient considering the need for the vaccine worldwide, since the goal here is not to vaccinate ONE country as soon as possible but ALL of them as soon as possible, so that finally FINALLY everything can be opened up.
 
While i hope some drug can be found that reduces the need for hospitalization, something that speeds up recovery is also good because it gives hospitals more "breathing room" when cases numbers are high.

As for vaccines, while i understand the need for vaccines against this virus to be patented regardless of which vaccine ends up being the best, it's important that whoever ends up with the discovery isn't naive enough to keep the drug to whatever company discovers it but rather distributes it's secrets to manufacturers accoss the world as soon as possible, via licensing or whichever other methods they end up choosing.

Why? Because having 2 or 3 manufacturing sites (or however many the discovering company has) is grossly inefficient considering the need for the vaccine worldwide, since the goal here is not to vaccinate ONE country as soon as possible but ALL of them as soon as possible, so that finally FINALLY everything can be opened up.
I can confirm at this stage it is a working vaccine for all intense and purposes, the really good thing about it is that it is a 2 level approach meaning it also boosts the bodies T Cell production which basically cleans up during and after the war that is going on in the body by destroying any infected cells left behind to ensure that the body does not relapse at some point which is quite common place apparently where it appears that the immune system has defeated the virus only to suffer a renewed attack a few days or weeks on whilst the immune system is in a weakened state. The further research required is around testing it more on every age range and those with a mix of different underlying conditions to ensure it is safe, an example of this is that in most cases only one dose was required but they did find one or two cases in the over 80's where a second dose was required but I don't know if that was a week or a month after the first dose but it makes sense to me as in that age range the existing immune system is so much weaker so may require a "booster", we also need more evidence that it is safe for children simply because there are much fewer children getting the virus that the research for this age range is less robust, at the end of the day, unlike an adult volunteer you cannot just inoculate a 9 year old and then 2 weeks later inject them with the virus.

As for licencing and production, It's the research team that have discovered it, in this case Oxford University. I would imagine that any pharmaceutical company worldwide can obtain the license to produce from day 1, I don't even know if or how they have to pay for that, obviously the research costs are covered separately, possibly in the license fee and tied into the production/manufacturing costs by the pharmaceutical company producing it. I know that the UK has already secured deals with 3 companies, one being a part UK company called AstraZeneca, another being the USA/Germany company the US has a deal with and not sure of the third but I do know that the first 30 million doses from AstraZeneca will be for the UK and the other 2 companies will be producing a further 70 million for us at some point in the future as I understand it.

All this is just pieces from various news reports over here in the last 48 hours so I can't be totally sure of the accuracy but things at least look more promising than they did just a few weeks ago and from what I have heard the US are close to announcing they may have something as is our Imperial College research team who have been working on a 2nd vaccine within the UK, the more options we get the better IMO, because we may find that one solution works better than another with certain underlying condition or age ranges.
 
As for licencing and production, It's the research team that have discovered it, in this case Oxford University. I would imagine that any pharmaceutical company worldwide can obtain the license to produce from day 1, I don't even know if or how they have to pay for that, obviously the research costs are covered separately, possibly in the license fee and tied into the production/manufacturing costs by the pharmaceutical company producing it. I know that the UK has already secured deals with 3 companies, one being a part UK company called AstraZeneca, another being the USA/Germany company the US has a deal with and not sure of the third but I do know that the first 30 million doses from AstraZeneca will be for the UK and the other 2 companies will be producing a further 70 million for us at some point in the future as I understand it.

And that's the problem i was referring to in my previous post: 100M vaccines are like a drop in the ocean.

Lets say, for the sake of argument, those 3 companies have 10 manufacturing sites worldwide and can produce those 100M vaccines in ... say ... 2 weeks: wouldn't it be better to sell / license / whatever other method to ALL other companies in the world with manufacturing capabilities so that they could produce 100 times as many vaccines in a fraction of the time, so that the whole World could return to "normalcy" that much faster?

Trying to profit by restricting the speed with which to inoculate the World is the LAST THING the World needs, AFTER a vaccine is found: everyday the World loses $B due to the restrictions being enforced in most countries.

What the World REALLY NEEDS is a COVID-19 "Manhattan Project" kind of cooperation, instead of different companies attempting to come up with different vaccines.
 
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Maryland county level officials have noticed the rise and are beginning to ask to rollback the reopening: https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/0...d-restrictions-back-for-bars-and-restaurants/

“We are writing to share our concerns regarding the recent increase in daily cases across the state and impact of the virus over the past week,” said health officers from Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties and Baltimore City in a letter obtained by The Baltimore Sun.

EDIT: Nothing official yet though. The rise in COVID19 cases is pretty slow, all else considered. So we do have the ability to take our time with this (maybe see things out for the rest of the week....). But given the current trends, we really need to reverse Phase 2 and return to something closer to Phase 1.

1595341527214.png


The key seems to be in-person dining at bars and restaurants, unfortunately. (Bars and Restaurants are a major small-business category in our state).
 
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And that's the problem i was referring to in my previous post: 100M vaccines are like a drop in the ocean.

Lets say, for the sake of argument, those 3 companies have 10 manufacturing sites worldwide and can produce those 100M vaccines in ... say ... 2 weeks: wouldn't it be better to sell / license / whatever other method to ALL other companies in the world with manufacturing capabilities so that they could produce 100 times as many vaccines in a fraction of the time, so that the whole World could return to "normalcy" that much faster?

Trying to profit by restricting the speed with which to inoculate the World is the LAST THING the World needs, AFTER a vaccine is found: everyday the World loses $B due to the restrictions being enforced in most countries.

What the World REALLY NEEDS is a COVID-19 "Manhattan Project" kind of cooperation, instead of different companies attempting to come up with different vaccines.
I think you are missing the point, every Pharmaceutical company in the world can should they wish apply for a license to manufacturer it, in the UK's case 70 million are for the future, they are not being manufactured until global stocks are sufficient and are for future years, the 30 million are for our immediate use, that's one company producing their first batches for us, there are loads of companies with between them hundreds of manufacturing facilities worldwide, we are only in the queue for 30 million from that one company because we would be the patent holders as it is a product of the University of Oxford.

Edit: I agree though, what we don't want is the PPE debacle that the world had in the early days of the pandemic where just a few countries bought out the global supply for a month or more, however, it is up to the Pharmaceutical companies if they decide they want to produce any vaccine and sadly they may look at which vaccine is the cheapest/most profitable to manufacture, as new vaccines come to the market some of these companies may produce several of them, the challenge as you pointed out is how quickly can every country get it in sufficient quantities and that will take time.

 
Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-07-20 16-58-47.png Screenshot from 2020-07-21 23-23-47.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 48898 confirmed infected --- 127 more
- 33769 recovered --- 222 more
- 1697 fatalities --- 6 more
- 423040 suspected cases --- 2405 more
- 1480458 tests taken --- 13796 more - last updated July 20th
- 1616 waiting for test results --- 56 more
- 35077 under watch from authorities --- 4 more
- 439 hospitalized --- 15 less
- 62 in ICU --- 1 more
 
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