Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[RandallFlagg]

And obviously the opposite has occurred. The Golden Cross.

That fails too. Death cross near a bottom, followed by Golden cross near a top right before a crash, death cross near bottom of that 2nd crash :

 

[trog100]

weak hands sell their coin.. strong hands collect it at a bargain price.. i think the market has found a bottom and will go sideways for a while.. a lot of the weak players have already sold not much else for the whales to do except wait..

its all got kind of boring..

trog

 

[Rithsom]

i think the market has found a bottom and will go sideways for a while.. a lot of the weak players have already sold not much else for the whales to do except wait..

BTC and ETH both increased substantially this evening. In my eyes, their slight horizontal trend of the past month has just been broken. This might be the bounce that some here have predicted.

Also, can someone explain to me what is up with these approximately one-month-long "steps" in the graph of BTC? If crypto really begins to climb within the next couple of days, there'll be yet another "step" in the graph.

 

[RandallFlagg]

A lot of stuff in the news about inflation and the inflation trade, and lumber futures. The common wisdom is that the inflation trade would include Bitcoin, as inflation tends to take most asset classes up in price / value in nominal (non inflation adjusted price), be that stocks or crypto.

Thought I'd post this image of Lumber futures. Usually what is in the news is something that already happened. Lumber futures are actually down about 40% off their recent highs.

 

[trog100]

well bitcoin is up by nearly 14% on the day.. its now over 40K and looks to be holding.. bitcoin is doing a tad better than eth which is a change from how things have been..

i think we definitely found a bottom around 31K but its a bit early to say what happens next..

trog

 

[ppn]

One month steps exactly starting at 26-1, sometimes the run lasts for two months. But once the plateau is reached the only way is down until the true bottom is found. it is a system that exist for the sake of reading signals, and crossing points, it just can't go anywhere and stay there, so what's the point. making winners by making a lot more losers.

 

[R-T-B]

so what's the point.

Not the topic of this thread.

 

[Zach_01]

2017-2018
After the ATH of ~20,000$ a decline to around 6,000~6,500$. And the rally begins again breaking bearish trend, and gain over 60% passing 11,000$...


but...



Anything looking familiar to any of you?



I would like to clear that I'm into crypto market the last 3.5+ years, and I do want BTC and other alt coins to hit a new and bigger ATH. But I'm also trying to be realistic. I'm not saying that it would be exactly the same as before. We are in a different time. When human psychology is involved along with big financial interests (that keep growing), literally anything can happen. I like to maintain the ball low though, but its just me.

Just to give you a perspective or maybe food for thought.

I do believe that in the long (maybe very long) term the result will be even more positive (financially) by holding, but I'm not convinced that this time is now.

 

[RandallFlagg]

That's a great post, I wish people would look back and see what markets have actually done and get perspective like that.

This run-up in Bitcoin started in March 2020, peaked in April 2021, to where it is now. This is after BTC essentially moving sideways for a year and a half after the 2017-2018 runup and crash.

I don't think it is coincidence that this big run-up started with the lockdowns in March 2020. And I don't think it's coincidence that this is falling as lockdowns end. As people go back to work they'll stop playing in the casino, and the prices will fall.

 

[trog100]

That's a great post, I wish people would look back and see what markets have actually done and get perspective like that.

This run-up in Bitcoin started in March 2020, peaked in April 2021, to where it is now. This is after BTC essentially moving sideways for a year and a half after the 2017-2018 runup and crash.

I don't think it is coincidence that this big run-up started with the lockdowns in March 2020. And I don't think it's coincidence that this is falling as lockdowns end. As people go back to work they'll stop playing in the casino, and the prices will fall.

so randall you are predicting a fall back to around 20K.. a couple of years in the doldrums and then another run up to 200K or so..

trog

 

[RandallFlagg]

so randall you are predicting a fall back to around 20K.. a couple of years in the doldrums and then another run up to 200K or so..

trog

I actually don't like price target predictions, but that is all that people want. The market usually tells you what it is about to do at any given moment - go up or down - determining how much is a fools game. Like I said in previous post, ~20K would be under 20% probability even if I have identified the pattern correctly, which is not certain.

But yes, I think you will see 20K before you see 65K. You may never see 65K again, it's not like there is anything there with BTC. You could just as well be trading in digital images of ponys. But as you say, it depends on what people are willing to pay.

 

[trog100]

I actually don't like price target predictions, but that is all that people want. The market usually tells you what it is about to do at any given moment - go up or down - determining how much is a fools game. Like I said in previous post, ~20K would be under 20% probability even if I have identified the pattern correctly, which is not certain.

But yes, I think you will see 20K before you see 65K. You may never see 65K again, it's not like there is anything there with BTC. You could just as well be trading in digital images of ponys. But as you say, it depends on what people are willing to pay.

thanks for your reply but with your look back and see what has happened comments which of course imply something similar will happen again else there is point point in looking back..

assuming we are past the cycle peak we would be looking at a fall back to around 20K.. two years in the doldrums before the next run up to around 200K..

but what we dont know is.. have we past this cycle peak or not... if we havnt we could go much higher before the end of this year.. if we have its the fall back and two years in the doldrums before the next run up..

basically we have no idea of where we are at in the current cycle.. which kind of means we have no idea of what happens next.. i have offered up the two possibilities.. they do differ a little he he..

trog

ps.. one thing history does show is.. with each cycle the figures get higher.. i have tried to allow for this in my 200K figures for the maybe next cycle.. assuming we have peaked in this one..

ps2.. and you do highlight the difference between coiners and no coiners.. to no coiners there really is nothing there.. but to people with skin in the game there is something there.. there own money and sometimes lots of it..

 

[RandallFlagg]

thanks for your reply but with your look back and see what has happened comments which of course imply something similar will happen again else there is point point in looking back..

assuming we are past the cycle peak we would be looking at a fall back to around 20K.. two years in the doldrums before the next run up to around 200K..

but what we dont know is.. have we past this cycle peak or not... if we havnt we could go much higher before the end of this year.. if we have its the fall back and two years in the doldrums before the next run up..

There's this rule of alternation, that says this time will not be like last time. There are a dozen or so basic corrective patterns so it is unlikely that two of them will occur back to back. Even if this is random - and I don't think it is - try rolling a 12 sided die and see how often you come up with the same roll twice.

basically we have no idea of where we are at in the current cycle.. which kind of means we have no idea of what happens next.. i have offered up the two possibilities.. they do differ a little he he..

trog

ps.. one thing history does show is.. with each cycle the figures get higher.. i have tried to allow for this in my 200K figures for the maybe next cycle.. assuming we have peaked in this one..

ps2.. and you do highlight the difference between coiners and no coiners.. to no coiners there really is nothing there.. but to people with skin in the game there is something there.. there own money and sometimes lots of it..

Nope, big difference. If I invest in say Apple, and they get liquidated, we still have their cash, property, IP, logo / trademark and a host of other hard assets. As long as they are not saddled in debt beyond the value of said assets, there's something 'there'.

To be fair, there are tons of stocks that essentially have nothing and never have had anything. Examples from the past would be WorldCom, Tyco, VA Linux, Enron - though several of those involved fraud. I don't think fraud is rampant now though, I think many people just don't care about actual underlying value. Twitter and Tesla pretty much fit this bill right now, just to mention some high flyers - both of these would disappear if they were unable to expand and recycle their debt load at low rates. I wouldn't be surprised to find that half the stocks on the market fit that description.

I find Bitcoin interesting because I think it is a bellwether for investor / public willingness to accept risk. Before the stock market crashes, Bitcoin will crash. Heads up - Bitcoin already crashed.

This is an ending diagonal :

This was bitcoin at the peak (daily) - it ended with the pattern above :

This is the NASDAQ today Daily, should look familiar, it seems an ending diagonal also. The similarity and recent lockstep moves between NASDAQ and Bitcoin are pretty striking.

The last push up does not appear complete, but it's very very close, it could already be done.

I actually expect this to take us back to 2019 highs, possibly lower. If that happens, I would also expect Bitcoin to follow with it.

 

[trog100]

well bitcoin has lost a weeks gains down from 40K to 34K.. we could be setting up for another go at breaking below 30K or maybe it will go back up to 40K..

the stock markets are not doing very well and gold has taken a big dive.. the dollar is up..

this coming week might be interesting..

my mining returns are still pretty crap and ebay gpu prices have dropped a fair bit maybe around 30%..

gold going down is the one that surprises me.. it should be going up by my reckoning.. uncertainty rules the day..

trog

ps.. crypto has just taken another small dip since i wrote this.. its possible the crypto market is front running the stock markets.. this coming monday will tell.. there could be a sell off..

 

[RandallFlagg]

well bitcoin has lost a weeks gains down from 40K to 34K.. we could be setting up for another go at breaking below 30K or maybe it will go back up to 40K..

the stock markets are not doing very well and gold has taken a big dive.. the dollar is up..

this coming week might be interesting..

my mining returns are still pretty crap and ebay gpu prices have dropped a fair bit maybe around 30%..

gold going down is the one that surprises me.. it should be going up by my reckoning.. uncertainty rules the day..

trog

ps.. crypto has just taken another small dip since i wrote this.. its possible the crypto market is front running the stock markets.. this coming monday will tell.. there could be a sell off..

Crypto has already dropped by a % that would be catastrophic in any normal market - it is currently nearly 50% down from its high. With that in mind, I do think Crypto is leading. It was the first sign of risk-off aversion from investors, and that aversion is spreading to the regular markets - of all kinds.

The crowd is usually wrong at major turning points, and on that theme - cash is clearly not dead. In fact, if there is a major selloff the demand for cash will be rather extreme, which will push bond yields (interest rates) and the dollar up.

The Fed could just print its way out of that but it has already triggered a good deal of inflation without the big employment gains that were projected. Meanwhile unemployment benefits and eviction / foreclosure moratoriums are rapidly coming to a close which will affect property values and retail sales - retail sales which are already contracting.

This will indeed be interesting.

 

[LFaWolf]

If BTC gets down to $32k I will buy it again. Sold mine last time when it breached $40k for a nice gain. Ethereum has been down too, but I think BTC is a better buy.

 

[Rithsom]

Well, I just checked and ETH is now below $2,000 for the first time in months (well, besides that very brief dip in May). BTC isn't doing well, either.

Interesting stuff. This is very surprising to see after the gains that happened last week.

 

[trog100]

well the entire crypto market seems to be crashing.. bitcoin is still over 31K but eth is down to 1880... its basically a sea of red with some quite big alt-coin losses..

i await to see what tomorrow brings.. he he

trog

 

[RandallFlagg]

Scary chart of the day - the DJIA trading at the top of 90 year pitchfork style trend lines :

More on topic, BTC seems to be at a decision point. Will it stay in its trading range and bounce up, or break down lower? We should know very soon.

 

[ShiBDiB]

well the entire crypto market seems to be crashing.. bitcoin is still over 31K but eth is down to 1880... its basically a sea of red with some quite big alt-coin losses..

i await to see what tomorrow brings.. he he

trog

The alt-coin market is long overdue for a crash. Too many coins out there that should be worth less than a penny that have been riding crypto hype. The subreddits for them are very entertaining tho with how delusional the buyers are

 

[trog100]

well its tuesday morning in euroland and bitcoin seems to be holding above 31K.. eth seems to be establishing a new bottom at just over 1800.. the rest are all well in the red..

bitcoin is showing it strength relatively speaking..

trog

ps.. bitcoin has just taken another small dip.. its getting very close to that 30K level..

 

[Nash]

-20%, 24hr trading volume $48,283,528,130.34.

 

[RandallFlagg]

BTC Breaking down. This means the 5th wave is in progress and likely started at the recent high at 41,261.

If wave 5=wave 1 that would put the most likely bottom target at ~24,260 as wave 1 was just over 17,000 in price movement.

Common multiples of 5 vs 1 are 68.5%, 100%, 132%, and 168%.

Basically this means a real bottom could be put in at any time, the momentum indicates it's not going to stop at 29-30K though (68.5% of 1) which makes 24-26k much more likely. I don't get the impression that the momentum will carry much below that but it's still early.

The long term lower trend line sits at about 7500 right now.

 

[LFaWolf]

Looks like the crash is real. BTC below $30k and Eth below $18k. Still waiting for a buy point...

 

[trog100]

Looks like the crash is real. BTC below $30k and Eth below $18k. Still waiting for a buy point...

yep and my mining rewards have just doubled.. he he

obviously a lot activity going on..

trog