Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[Vayra86]

The crash is coming, it's not a matter of if but when and how far it goes. If you're in stocks it's not a time for speculative plays imo, you should be moving most of your money to cash or blue chips. Crypto wise, ether/btc are those blue chips. Honestly hopefully this kills some alt coins that have no business existing.

ETH = the framework for all those altcoins though

 

[Nash]

on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...

nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??

trog

You're just nervous, if you're inclined to hold, then hold. I started buying MSFT in 2012 at $30 and kept adding into the $50's. Today it's $265. It took a while but it was a good buy. I would like to get rid of it but they're on a tear, selling now would be stupid. One consideration for me, is that it's spent money, old money that I don't need. Can it crash?, of course it can! If I had to sell at 1/2 the current price, I would still make money, it only it cost me some time. My dad thinks I should be more risk-tolerant, but I'm not, I like a sure thing, and he's added quite a bit to it for me, he also has his own.
If you've done the same thing with BTC, stick with it, that's what I'm doing.

I have a two week chart, here the green flats are periods I watch, the dips in red on the far right, not much! I'm looking for this flat to stretch into or over the weekend, we'll see!

_________________

Adding a snip from that chart, this is the anomalous 40k period, looks strange in isolation.

 

[64K]

on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...

nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??

trog

You're right but inevitably you will need to cash out your Bitcoins or buy things with them and then you may lose money. I suppose you could pass them down in a Will and never lose money in your lifetime.

 

[sepheronx]

You're right but inevitably you will need to cash out your Bitcoins or buy things with them and then you may lose money. I suppose you could pass them down in a Will and never lose money in your lifetime.

he'll add me to his will.

 

[RandallFlagg]

@RandallFlagg thoughts on Yellen here? America already had one credit rating deduction can it withstand another? Congress has to not delay, and come to a sensible net positive balance sheet before it is to late.

I know Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter, has a lot of crypto... all the richest of the rich do... alongside their many passports and other currencies, they wouldn't do that if they thought an American permanent crash wasn't possible... hmm. Thoughts? My only conclusion is that if Congress doesn't get its act together by end of December its all over as far as inflation goes, and the final crumbling of the middle class.

I think we are at a breaking point right now. If Congress fails at a bi-partisan level, and they don't find a way to work out a paying down of the debt and inflation doubles again with compounding interest to boot, crypto soars to the moon in 2022. If Congress surprises us all of us, and acts like mature human beings who put on their utilitarian hats instead of their toddlers at recess hats, then crypto falls and busts in 2022. This is my thinking anyway, time will tell.

I don't think Congress will default on anything, they'll just recycle old debt. Sell more treasuries and use the proceeds to pay off old ones. The end result is that each year, roughly $2000 of taxes for every man woman and child in the US is just to pay interest on the debt. i.e. about $600B in taxes will go to pay interest.

Poor people get into debt for short term gratifications, and rich people give loans for long term wealth building. All this spending is just going to make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, on a macro scale, while it is sold as help to the poor. That $600B in interest each year is going into the pockets of investors, and that number will go up significantly as the new debt skyrockets - not too long from now, starting about 2025, the bills start to come due. It is ironic that it is primarily the poor / lower middle class that demand the spend. They know not what they do.

And no, those taxes won't make ultra-wealthy people pay more. They will make upper middle class pay more, which puts up artificial barriers from say the top 10% being able to get into the top 1%. Until they can get the super wealthy to actually pay more than 2% in taxes, it's stupid to talk about raising capital gains taxes from 20% to 40% on everyone else IMO. These people have entire teams, perhaps entire LLCs, to help them avoid taxes. To this end, a simple flat tax would make a lot of sense. No loopholes, no exceptions.

The secret IRS files: Trove of never-before-seen records reveal how wealthiest avoid income tax

ProPublica obtained IRS information showing how billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett pay little in income tax compared to their wealth.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Mescalamba]

Yeah, it's been interesting to watch. Some people have said that it mimicking the stock market, but I just haven't seen that and the frequent charts by RandallFlagg & Nash illustrate this very clearly.

Fairly sure it will eventually mimic stock market, but we definitely not there. Thats years from now. Also there is always possibility that it will fail as whole, in that case its not years, but never.

on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...

nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??

trog

In case of some super negative governments intervention, they might lose money. If everything goes as it does now, then yea.. buying and holding loses nothing.

I don't think Congress will default on anything, they'll just recycle old debt. Sell more treasuries and use the proceeds to pay off old ones. The end result is that each year, roughly $2000 of taxes for every man woman and child in the US is just to pay interest on the debt. i.e. about $600B in taxes will go to pay interest.

Poor people get into debt for short term gratifications, and rich people give loans for long term wealth building. All this spending is just going to make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, on a macro scale, while it is sold as help to the poor. That $600B in interest each year is going into the pockets of investors, and that number will go up significantly as the new debt skyrockets - not too long from now, starting about 2025, the bills start to come due. It is ironic that it is primarily the poor / lower middle class that demand the spend. They know not what they do.

And no, those taxes won't make ultra-wealthy people pay more. They will make upper middle class pay more, which puts up artificial barriers from say the top 10% being able to get into the top 1%. Until they can get the super wealthy to actually pay more than 2% in taxes, it's stupid to talk about raising capital gains taxes from 20% to 40% on everyone else IMO. These people have entire teams, perhaps entire LLCs, to help them avoid taxes. To this end, a simple flat tax would make a lot of sense. No loopholes, no exceptions.

The secret IRS files: Trove of never-before-seen records reveal how wealthiest avoid income tax

ProPublica obtained IRS information showing how billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett pay little in income tax compared to their wealth.

www.usatoday.com

View attachment 205229

Seems Elon aint there yet.

At level of Bezos and such, you have enough money to do quite literally whatever you want. Im sometimes grateful that these people have such small amount of imagination.. At least they direct their evil into paying less taxes and exploiting workers as opposed to far worse things that could be done with that amount of wealth.

 

[trog100]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/jolnpv

trog

 

[LFaWolf]

I don't think Congress will default on anything, they'll just recycle old debt. Sell more treasuries and use the proceeds to pay off old ones. The end result is that each year, roughly $2000 of taxes for every man woman and child in the US is just to pay interest on the debt. i.e. about $600B in taxes will go to pay interest.

Poor people get into debt for short term gratifications, and rich people give loans for long term wealth building. All this spending is just going to make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, on a macro scale, while it is sold as help to the poor. That $600B in interest each year is going into the pockets of investors, and that number will go up significantly as the new debt skyrockets - not too long from now, starting about 2025, the bills start to come due. It is ironic that it is primarily the poor / lower middle class that demand the spend. They know not what they do.

And no, those taxes won't make ultra-wealthy people pay more. They will make upper middle class pay more, which puts up artificial barriers from say the top 10% being able to get into the top 1%. Until they can get the super wealthy to actually pay more than 2% in taxes, it's stupid to talk about raising capital gains taxes from 20% to 40% on everyone else IMO. These people have entire teams, perhaps entire LLCs, to help them avoid taxes. To this end, a simple flat tax would make a lot of sense. No loopholes, no exceptions.

The secret IRS files: Trove of never-before-seen records reveal how wealthiest avoid income tax

ProPublica obtained IRS information showing how billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett pay little in income tax compared to their wealth.

www.usatoday.com

View attachment 205229

I didn’t click on the link so I didn’t read it, but if I am not mistaken, the total wealth growth is the growth of their stocks and portfolio, so they are unrealized gains and they shouldn’t pay taxes on them if they never sell the stocks (unrealized gains). The reported income is probably what they have sold so the taxes they paid are correct. We never, ever, should pay taxes on unrealized gains.

 

[ZenZimZaliben]

on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...

nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??

trog

I'm sure you will get a chart that explains why you are wrong in something that can't be predicted. Even though historically holding has been the best strategy...even though Holding isn't consider an elite trading strategy and something only plebs do. lol

 

[RandallFlagg]

I didn’t click on the link so I didn’t read it, but if I am not mistaken, the total wealth growth is the growth of their stocks and portfolio, so they are unrealized gains and they shouldn’t pay taxes on them if they never sell the stocks (unrealized gains). The reported income is probably what they have sold so the taxes they paid are correct. We never, ever, should pay taxes on unrealized gains.

I've seen that explanation and that's probably 90% of it. And then you have tax-free investments and funds.

For example, say I have 10 Billion $$. I put it into tax-free municipal bonds that draw 5%. That's $500M per year in interest.

No taxes I believe. Are there limits to that? IDK I'm too far from limits to go look.

This is just one of a dozen ways to avoid taxes that *I* can think of though, and I'm not a professional. These guys have teams of pros working this stuff out, and the tax code would take you years to read much less understand.

 

[Space Lynx]

I don't think Congress will default on anything, they'll just recycle old debt. Sell more treasuries and use the proceeds to pay off old ones. The end result is that each year, roughly $2000 of taxes for every man woman and child in the US is just to pay interest on the debt. i.e. about $600B in taxes will go to pay interest.

Poor people get into debt for short term gratifications, and rich people give loans for long term wealth building. All this spending is just going to make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, on a macro scale, while it is sold as help to the poor. That $600B in interest each year is going into the pockets of investors, and that number will go up significantly as the new debt skyrockets - not too long from now, starting about 2025, the bills start to come due. It is ironic that it is primarily the poor / lower middle class that demand the spend. They know not what they do.

And no, those taxes won't make ultra-wealthy people pay more. They will make upper middle class pay more, which puts up artificial barriers from say the top 10% being able to get into the top 1%. Until they can get the super wealthy to actually pay more than 2% in taxes, it's stupid to talk about raising capital gains taxes from 20% to 40% on everyone else IMO. These people have entire teams, perhaps entire LLCs, to help them avoid taxes. To this end, a simple flat tax would make a lot of sense. No loopholes, no exceptions.

The secret IRS files: Trove of never-before-seen records reveal how wealthiest avoid income tax

ProPublica obtained IRS information showing how billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett pay little in income tax compared to their wealth.

www.usatoday.com

View attachment 205229

The worst part is I think there is a way to fix everything, it's just there is so much hatred, and a got mine don't care about you attitude it will never happen. Instead of using logic and reason in Congress, they act like children.

I don't know what the future holds, but if America does not fix its never paying back debt problem and inflation skyrocketing, it's all going to collapse. The middle class will go (and is going already) first, the rest will follow soon after, or the rich will simply flee which is why they divest their money over a variety of currencies and crypto in-case one fails always have a backup. It's a shame it really is. Geographically speaking America has so much going for it, the two vast oceans protecting us, if only we could move beyond the hate, and everyone paid their fair share of taxes (including wealthy and religious entities), and government spent those taxes properly, and the citizens had confidence the government would spend those taxes properly... we could all truly live in a paradise. It is the greatest paradox of our species existence, we could literally have everything, we are truly capable of it, but we let the animal part of our brain win so we resort to survival of me and mine attitudes...

Oh well, humans had their chance, I am pretty confident within 5,000 years Earth will be resetting itself with a new species that replaces whatever remains of us after climate change. /shrug best we can do is just enjoy life best we can and live simply. speaking of which I am reading a very good book at the moment, so going to go read some more of that. take care all

 

[lexluthermiester]

on a three year chart bitcoin is up around 450% eth around 300%...

nobody will ever lose money if they simply buy and hold.. am i wrong.. ??

trog

To be fair, that is a good point. However if you look at the 5 year charts, not so great a picture..

Fairly sure it will eventually mimic stock market, but we definitely not there. Thats years from now. Also there is always possibility that it will fail as whole, in that case its not years, but never.

I don't ever see that happening. The Stock market and cryptocoin market are very different creatures. They're operated very differently and a symmetry between them is just not likely to ever happen.

 

[ZenZimZaliben]

To be fair, that is a good point. However if you look at the 5 year charts, not so great a picture..


I don't ever see that happening. The Stock market and cryptocoin market are very different creatures. They operated very differently and a symmetry between them is just not likely to ever happen.

$660 => $33,000 seems like a good return to me. Or is that not what you mean?

 

[lexluthermiester]

$660 => $33,000 seems like a good return to me. Or is that not what you mean?

Nope, not what I meant. Though to be fair, if that's your return? Well done indeed! Fricken score!

 

[Space Lynx]

$660 => $33,000 seems like a good return to me. Or is that not what you mean?

to be fair, AMD stock when it was $1 a share 5-7 years ago, 3 grand of that would be worth like 300+ grand or something now.

so you still invested badly if your ultimate goal is max outcome of profit. /shrug

 

[RandallFlagg]

I would be real careful around any crypto. I have a not-a-chart reason for that too.

Last year, a huge chunk of fairly well paid professionals were sent to work at home, while others were furloughed and drew heftier than normal unemployment. Yet others were voluntarily retired, with perks, cashed in 401Ks, cashed out pension plans, and so on.

Many of these folks used their time to grow a garden, build a deck, or get some excercise.

A bunch of them started screwing around in the markets.

Now, they're going back to work, slowly but surely.

I am pretty sure you are going to see some of these edge case markets collapse over time as people get back to their normal day jobs.

 

[Massdeth]

If your into crypto get out now. This is the sign that they are getting ready to crash the market: https://markets.businessinsider.com...-disapper-crypto-heist-2021-6-1030548585?op=1 Its coming. If it stays together another 30 days ill be surprised.

 

[lexluthermiester]

If your into crypto get out now. This is the sign that they are getting ready to crash the market: https://markets.businessinsider.com...-disapper-crypto-heist-2021-6-1030548585?op=1 Its coming. If it stays together another 30 days ill be surprised.

Yet another reason why strict regulations are needed world wide.

 

[trog100]

ignoring the fud bitcoin seems to be locked into a narrow band between 30 and 35K.. i think it might stay like this for a while..

kind of boring but it seems to be what is happening..

trog

 

[Nash]

It is boring, I just saw it $33,843 the price is hovering. It will break out in a few hours, I hope it head up!

 

[80-watt Hamster]

If your into crypto get out now. This is the sign that they are getting ready to crash the market: https://markets.businessinsider.com...-disapper-crypto-heist-2021-6-1030548585?op=1 Its coming. If it stays together another 30 days ill be surprised.

I won't be. It's kind of like the apocalypse or end times: folks keep predicting the end/collapse, and it stubbornly refuses to show up in an appropriately timely fashion. Then the date gets moved. That's not to say it won't collapse at some point; that possibility is very real.

The quote from the linked article that stuck out to me was:

Most recently, the Bank for International Settlement criticized the digital asset for its role in illegal activities.

"By now, it is clear that cryptocurrencies are speculative assets rather than money, and in many cases are used to facilitate money laundering, ransomware attacks, and other financial crimes" BIS said.

Now, I don't know what the Bank for International Settlement does or if we should care about its opinion, but the bolded text is a nice encapsulation of the current state of crypto IMO. Advocates will say that the transition from speculative asset to legitimate and widespread means of exchange is coming, but I remain skeptical, at least on any near-term timescale. If it does happen, it probably won't be Bitcoin or any of the existing altcoins, but a newly developed companion or replacement for established currencies like the greenback, euro, yuan and yen.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Now, I don't know what the Bank for International Settlement does or if we should care about its opinion, but the bolded text is a nice encapsulation of the current state of crypto IMO. Advocates will say that the transition from speculative asset to legitimate and widespread means of exchange is coming, but I remain skeptical, at least on any near-term timescale. If it does happen, it probably won't be Bitcoin or any of the existing altcoins, but a newly developed companion or replacement for established currencies like the greenback, euro, yuan and yen.

Completely agree with that and posted that view a few times. Crypto, as a technology, is likely to supplant currency as we know it.

But it won't be these cryptos. It'll be a government / bank issued crypto. Why? Because blockchain is quite literally a database of every transaction that ever happened to every unit of currency.

Give every person in your country a wallet, just like a social security number, and you can find out everything they ever bought and where every 'coin' they ever touched went.

This will make it exceedingly easy to find money launderers, and virtually impossible to hide income. Someone tipped you as a waiter and you didn't report it? Busted. Bought a 50 round magazine for your rifle in Arizona but live in California? Uh huh, they know. Bought something in person from someone who later is busted as a Meth pusher or for pimping prostitutes? Ah yeah.

China is already experimenting with a crypto Yuan.

 

[trog100]

so we move into a cashless society where government knows everything you earn and everything you spend.. lets call it government controlled digital credits..

long live bitcoin. and may it remain free of government control for ever.. . he he he..

trog

It is boring, I just saw it $33,843 the price is hovering. It will break out in a few hours, I hope it head up!

later in the day.. bitcoin is down 8% and eth down 10%.. lets see how low it will go..

will it break 30K.. i dont think so but it may..

trog

 

[RandallFlagg]

so we move into a cashless society where government knows everything you earn and everything you spend.. lets call it government controlled digital credits..

long live bitcoin. and may it remain free of government control for ever.. . he he he..

trog

Actually more like long live physical cash.

 

[Space Lynx]

Actually more like long live physical cash.

that's what I was thinking. so many people get by in life just by doing odd jobs helping a friend move and getting paid in $20 cash, etc. cash just makes it easier.

In a country like America, if you announced a no cash based system, I would be very surprised if you don't get voted out of office in a recall and replaced with someone who is for cash in the next cycle.

It would be political suicide. lol and it wouldn't change anything because it would get reversed in 4 years. so yeah, nothing to worry about there.