Unpopular opinion: GPU shortage is actually a good time

[Vayra86]

This is kind of an inevitability anyway. Desktops are going the way of the dodo. I don’t think the shortage affects that timeline though.

Your words not mine; and history doesn't really have a strong indicator that they are. The only indicator is that the market is both diversifying and saturated on device usage. We gained mobile, we gained tablet, we gained laptop, and yet, enterprise is full of desktops and/or laptops connected to a screen on a desk, even if only just for ergonomic purposes; desktops still possess local processing power unmatched by any other device and deliver latencies and hardware upgrade cycles much faster and earlier to individuals.

In addition, PC is still the core machine for any development work and even with apps being huge these days, dev work still happens on a powerful desktop or laptop. I say desktop or laptop because I do see those as similar/same devices, its customizable hardware that runs any OS you want, instead of walled garden nonsense like consoles or mobiles have it - those are managed ecosystems built for consumers to buy stuff on. Its a different market that exists alongside the PC. It is, will be and has always been completely misguided to view those as a single market or at odds with one another - that only applies to the consumers that only consume and never get past it. However, both content consumption AND creation are major growth markets as they have always been. Irony has it that with more consumers you also need more creators to get content to consume.

Its the same thing for gaming. There are more games than there have ever been, the market generates more revenue than ever, and despite mobile and consoles growing YoY, the gaming PC is still here to stay. A few years of shite GPUs won't change that; cloud gaming won't change it; nor the fact people also use other devices to game on. There are no numbers backing that up. There are only numbers backing up a net growth and some shifts in the devices or services we use.

Last, a big aspect of the PC is the unmatched versatility and freedom. As gardens get more walls, the demand for such a free haven also increases or becomes more of a unique selling point. The demand for such devices, as a specific demand, not something 'nice to have'; is also growing - a similar trend that is a constant throughout history. People want control, and even more so when they feel it slipping away.

About glasses being half-full and all

I wonder how many people know that you can max out textures (assuming that you have enough VRAM) and anisotropic filter without fps loss.

This... now rewind a few months about the big discussions on VRAM on Ampere GPUs and how none of it was true, Nvidia was doing all as intended and everything is fine when gen-over-gen GPUs actually lost more than half their VRAM per % of core performance. We also have a few bright lights on this forum - scientists even - that keep yapping about how AFx16 and ultra textures are nonsensical or performance hogs and can easily be turned lower for a big advantage in some odd way. Goes to show how people have different takes on reality - even those who spout being knowledgeable. Its staggering to see how a few marketing blurbs distort people's sanity or things they've always considered logical.

Welcome to the internet We all do this though, whatever we think is true is our reality. The best we can do is learn as we go and admit we've been wrong. A quality many have forgotten lately, it seems; and I'll admit right here I can use a reminder from time to time myself.

 

[The red spirit]

his... now rewind a few months about the big discussions on VRAM on Ampere GPUs and how none of it was true, Nvidia was doing all as intended and everything is fine when gen-over-gen GPUs actually lost more than half their VRAM per % of core performance. We also have a few bright lights on this forum - scientists even - that keep yapping about how AFx16 and ultra textures are nonsensical or performance hogs and can easily be turned lower for a big advantage in some odd way. Goes to show how people have different takes on reality - even those who spout being knowledgeable. Its staggering to see how a few marketing blurbs distort people's sanity or things they've always considered logical.

Welcome to the internet We all do this though, whatever we think is true is our reality. The best we can do is learn as we go and admit we've been wrong. A quality many have forgotten lately, it seems; and I'll admit right here I can use a reminder from time to time myself.

And particularly anisotropic filtering one has been probably known pretty much since anisotropic filtering was made. Texture one I don't even know since when. As long as they fit, there's no performance impact of setting them higher. This stuff has been known since early AGP era and now we are in PCIe 4 era. This stuff is literally ancient, but perhaps integrated graphics don't work the same way. I dunno, I never had proper integrated graphics to test that.

 

[Mescalamba]

Truth is PC will always be more powerful then console. PC can do more while console is just mainly for games.

Fairly sure its not that hard to convert Xbox to Win 10 machine.

 

[claes]

Your words not mine; and history doesn't really have a strong indicator that they are. The only indicator is that the market is both diversifying and saturated on device usage.

I'm not sure if this is a glass-half-full take or just wishful thinking The writing's been on the wall for quite some time... Don't get me wrong -- I can't imagine desktops going away within this decade, but every market is moving to SoCs and SaaS.

Unfortunately, history actually is a strong indicator. The numbers are actually pretty stark — desktop sales are half of what they were ten years ago, while laptop and tablet sales have been increasing.

Canalys Newsroom - Global PC market Q4 2020

Find the latest press releases, channels and tech analysis available

www.canalys.com

Desktop vs Mobile vs Tablet Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats

This graph shows the market share of desktop vs mobile vs tablet worldwide based on over 5 billion monthly page views.

gs.statcounter.com

Personal computing devices shipments 2024-2028| Statista

In 2024, notebook PC unit shipments are expected to amount to 186.68 million, while detachable tablet shipments are set to reach 74.02 million.

www.statista.com

We gained mobile, we gained tablet, we gained laptop, and yet, enterprise is full of desktops and/or laptops connected to a screen on a desk, even if only just for ergonomic purposes;

Enterprise work is full of thin clients, tablets, and laptops, and more and more software is moving to SaaS (MS Office and Adobe being the "beacons" here).

In addition, PC is still the core machine for any development work and even with apps being huge these days, dev work still happens on a powerful desktop or laptop.

Most development happens on laptops... maybe if you’re talking about games, which only a minority of developers work on, but the vast majority of developers are working on the web. The processing power comes from a virtual machine in the cloud.

See also: https://www.jetbrains.com/lp/devecosystem-2020/

Its the same thing for gaming. There are more games than there have ever been, the market generates more revenue than ever, and despite mobile and consoles growing YoY, the gaming PC is still here to stay. A few years of shite GPUs won't change that; cloud gaming won't change it; nor the fact people also use other devices to game on. There are no numbers backing that up. There are only numbers backing up a net growth and some shifts in the devices or services we use.

I don't know -- maybe you have numbers that tell another story, but if the steam numbers posted here and the numbers I posted above are at all accurate, the answer is people are moving to mobile.

The Games Industry on What Gaming Might Be Like in 2030 - IGN

Representatives from Xbox, Capcom, Blizzard, Rovio, Square Enix, SEGA and more peer into their crystal balls.

www.ign.com

The Future of Tech: The Desktop PC

In this first part of our "Future of Tech" series, we'll call some predictions about the next generation of PCs. Rather than dreaming far into the future,...

www.techspot.com

Last, a big aspect of the PC is the unmatched versatility and freedom. As gardens get more walls, the demand for such a free haven also increases or becomes more of a unique selling point. The demand for such devices, as a specific demand, not something 'nice to have'; is also growing - a similar trend that is a constant throughout history. People want control, and even more so when they feel it slipping away.

The numbers don't seem to bear this out at all... If anything, consumers seem to be willing to give up control -- people love iphones, dvd/blu-ray/CD/vinyl sales are going down while streaming services dominate, major motion picture studios are streaming on the day of theatrical release... the list goes on and on.

Desktops are becoming more and more of a niche, especially for what were traditionally the largest markets. Workstations still make sense for AV production and scientific research for the foreseeable future, but most markets are moving to distributed and cloud solutions or embedded SOCs, precisely because desktop products are overkill/inefficient for most buyers. It's only a matter of time before desktop as a service becomes mainstream.

Gaming will probably go this way, too — we’re just a super-profitable afterthought market at this point. The real money (and innovation) is in the enterprise, research, and cloud markets — the stuff we buy is just a trickle-down of all of the investment Intel/AMD/Nvidia puts into those markets.

No disrespect to PCs (I am on this forum after all, and I’ll never give up my mouse and keyboard!), but the future for consumers, enthusiasts, and workplaces is the cloud and DaaS, for better or worse.

 

[Vayra86]

I'm not sure if this is a glass-half-full take or just wishful thinking The writing's been on the wall for quite some time... Don't get me wrong -- I can't imagine desktops going away within this decade, but every market is moving to SoCs and SaaS.

Unfortunately, history actually is a strong indicator. The numbers are actually pretty stark — desktop sales are half of what they were ten years ago, while laptop and tablet sales have been increasing.

Canalys Newsroom - Global PC market Q4 2020

Find the latest press releases, channels and tech analysis available

www.canalys.com

Desktop vs Mobile vs Tablet Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats

This graph shows the market share of desktop vs mobile vs tablet worldwide based on over 5 billion monthly page views.

gs.statcounter.com

Personal computing devices shipments 2024-2028| Statista

In 2024, notebook PC unit shipments are expected to amount to 186.68 million, while detachable tablet shipments are set to reach 74.02 million.

www.statista.com

Enterprise work is full of thin clients, tablets, and laptops, and more and more software is moving to SaaS (MS Office and Adobe being the "beacons" here).

Most development happens on laptops... maybe if you’re talking about games, which only a minority of developers work on, but the vast majority of developers are working on the web. The processing power comes from a virtual machine in the cloud.

See also: https://www.jetbrains.com/lp/devecosystem-2020/

I don't know -- maybe you have numbers that tell another story, but if the steam numbers posted here and the numbers I posted above are at all accurate, the answer is people are moving to mobile.

The Games Industry on What Gaming Might Be Like in 2030 - IGN

Representatives from Xbox, Capcom, Blizzard, Rovio, Square Enix, SEGA and more peer into their crystal balls.

www.ign.com

The Future of Tech: The Desktop PC

In this first part of our "Future of Tech" series, we'll call some predictions about the next generation of PCs. Rather than dreaming far into the future,...

www.techspot.com

The numbers don't seem to bear this out at all... If anything, consumers seem to be willing to give up control -- people love iphones, dvd/blu-ray/CD/vinyl sales are going down while streaming services dominate, major motion picture studios are streaming on the day of theatrical release... the list goes on and on.

Desktops are becoming more and more of a niche, especially for what were traditionally the largest markets. Workstations still make sense for AV production and scientific research for the foreseeable future, but most markets are moving to distributed and cloud solutions or embedded SOCs, precisely because desktop products are overkill/inefficient for most buyers. It's only a matter of time before desktop as a service becomes mainstream.

Gaming will probably go this way, too — we’re just a super-profitable afterthought market at this point. The real money (and innovation) is in the enterprise, research, and cloud markets — the stuff we buy is just a trickle-down of all of the investment Intel/AMD/Nvidia puts into those markets.

No disrespect to PCs (I am on this forum after all, and I’ll never give up my mouse and keyboard!), but the future for consumers, enthusiasts, and workplaces is the cloud and DaaS, for better or worse.

Trends that may or may not work out this way. I think its a mistake to consider desktop a norm as it really never was; it was always catering to a subset of users. This market is so big... its ever more diverse alongside it. Was there ever a typical PC gamer? The nerd of yesteryear isnt it... the PC nerd that is. This wotld moves fast. But the basic needs really havent.

 

[jaggerwild]

Not 1 game maker will be producing for old architecture, to even mention that? Yeah, lets build XP games....

 

[The red spirit]

Not 1 game maker will be producing for old architecture, to even mention that? Yeah, lets build XP games....

What architecture? No software is made for any specific architecture.

 

[xtreemchaos]

i could not agree more, "hardtimes" it brings out the best in all things and when "when" we can get hold of the gpu of our dreams we will enjoy it all the more. i find this a very up lifting post .thanks.
ps i think with china banning mining the rest of world will have to follow "im not judging miners, guys do what thay have to do to make a living" but i think by christmas the gpu situation will be back to normal " fingers crossed".

 

[FireFox]

ps i think with china banning mining the rest of world will have to follow "im not judging miners, guys do what thay have to do to make a living" but i think by christmas the gpu situation will be back to normal " fingers crossed".

Funny.
I don't mean to be rude but Miners are a plague that must be eliminated otherwise the GPU shortage won't end any time soon.

 

[80251]

Funny.
I don't mean to be rude but Miners are a plague that must be eliminated otherwise the GPU shortage won't end any time soon.

I'm against miners because of their environmental impact and the fact they waste power thus increasing the demand on already strained power grids.

 

[xtreemchaos]

We all waste power, ive got solar but it dont give me power 24/7 i use far too much. i be a hipo-crite to say any diff. its really not a guy with a few cards trying there luck its these huge gpu farms whats the real problem one farm can use more power than a small city.

 

[FireFox]

its really not a guy with a few cards

A guy with a few few cards + another one with a few cards too and you continue adding more guys with a few cards all together become a problem.
Hope you got my point.

 

[xtreemchaos]

yes you are quite right, but where do we draw the line , none of us can take the higher ground we are all killing the planet its just some are doing more and to want more is human nature bud.

 

[Vayra86]

A guy with a few few cards + another one with a few cards too and you continue adding more guys with a few cards all together become a problem.
Hope you got my point.

If we allow systems to exist where capital can be used to generate more capital we have created a wasteful practice. Its that simple and if its not mining its something else - such as the 'get rich' mentality of liberal societies. All this will always only work at the expense of others. After all, my rich is your poor, Ill always get more faster - this is as old as human history. And so all these guys with a few cards are really pissing in the wind. Theyre not getting rich - some whales are getting a whole lot richer. So we get some more GPUs...

The problem isnt mining. Its the concept crypto floats on right now. Proof of Stake is supposed to change that but its really more of the same, and much alike the real world and its stock markets.

yes you are quite right, but where do we draw the line , none of us can take the higher ground we are all killing the planet its just some are doing more and to want more is human nature bud.

To want more is indeed human nature, a fundamental problem that requires robust and dynamic systems to keep in check. Systems we try to erode daily.

 

[xtreemchaos]

what it all boils down to is Population, theres too many people and we still keep growing and we all want more. i dont think we can change im mean the writings on the wall and its been there for a long time but nobody truly reads it "me for one".

 

[jaggerwild]

Oh they dont

What architecture? No software is made for any specific architecture.

Oh they dont make GPU drivers, my bad!!

 

[Vayra86]

what it all boils down to is Population, theres too many people and we still keep growing and we all want more. i dont think we can change im mean the writings on the wall and its been there for a long time but nobody truly reads it "me for one".

1 child politics. I say go. Less people = higher quality of life for everyone, it is that simple. But its totally against human instinct

When I think about this stuff, I can't help but think of sci-fi, and how species are all on a similar learning curve - how you progress through technologies, attain a higher form of understanding of how things could work, etc. Its like Stellaris is happening right in front of us Time for us to make an evolutional leap?

Anyway, GPUs. I kinda want one soon-ish

 

[Solid State Soul ( SSS )]

- Popular opinion: if you want to get attention, pick any negative, controversial topic, and say publicly its a good thing !

 

[cvaldes]

The GPU/semiconductor shortage is a bad thing if you're an American adult with a retirement account or pension fund.

These companies are leaving money on the table because supply cannot meet demand. Note that the inflated prices driven by scalpers do not line the pockets of the big corporations nor their investors. Increased shareholder value is stifled because these companies are unable to grow as fast as the market is calling for.

Note that the general semiconductor shortage also affects other big industries like auto and aerospace. It basically causes a trickle down effect to anything that has semiconductors in it which is practically everything powered by electricity these days.

So it's not just the Nvidias, Intels, AMDs, TSMCs, and Samsungs of the world that are affected. The semiconductor shortage affects all big business and thus all investments in those companies.

Ultimately supply and demand will come back into balance at some point but steady availability is better than massive shortages. Price gouging only benefits a few and not in a way that really benefits the typical investor.

I bought a wimpy Sapphire Radeon RX 550 2GB (for an SFF productivity build) in September for $65, about $14 less than the $79 launch price of the AMD reference card. $65 is what a Lexa Pro card was honestly worth. A week ago, these were going for $300 from Amazon third-party resellers. That is 4.6x what it was nine months ago.

Four. Year. Old. Graphics. Card.

The only ones who benefit from the GPU shortage are price gougers.

The semiconductor shortage only benefits the price gougers. Everyone else loses including people who invest in Fortune 500 companies for retirement. Heck, it affects people who just need to buy a webcam because of work-from-home COVID-19 policies or if you're some construction worker trying to buy a new pickup truck.

Cryptocurrency mining is rather stupid anyhow. The smart ones don't shell their money on silicon. They just buy the cryptocurrency. In the same way, you'd be crazy to think you'd get rich from Amazon by going to work for them as a delivery driver. You're better off buying AMZN shares.

Remember that most of the world's wealth is from investments not from wages. Moreover cryptocurrency investment gains (at least in the USA) are taxed as ordinary income; there is no accommodation for long-term capital gains. If you had $10,000 you'd be better off buying NVDA, TSLA, and AMZN instead of buying five RTX 3080 cards. If your appetite for risk is considerable, go ahead and buy some cryptocurrency. Just remember that as a financial instrument, cryptocurrencies routinely lose 50% of their value in short periods. Better off diversifying and not going all in on a risky bet.

No one is going to get rich mining. It might buy some groceries, maybe even pay rent.

Remember that companies that use semiconductors have several options. One is to increase product prices and pass the cost to the consumer. That hits YOUR wallet. Another option would be for manufacturers to eat the extra costs and see their margins erode. Shareholders don't like that. The primary duty of a publicly traded company is to increase shareholder value. That's why we see prices go up.

 

[The red spirit]

- Popular opinion: if you want to get attention, pick any negative, controversial topic, and say publicly its a good thing !

That's still way better than 100th thread about some sore looser crying about RTX 3080 being expensive.

 

[80251]

We all waste power, ive got solar but it dont give me power 24/7 i use far too much. i be a hipo-crite to say any diff. its really not a guy with a few cards trying there luck its these huge gpu farms whats the real problem one farm can use more power than a small city.

Definitely. But when I'm having rolling power outages I definitely wonder if miners aren't contributing to that -- especially during the summer, when it's 100°F and their mining produces even more heat load because they have to run their aircon more often.

1 child politics. I say go. Less people = higher quality of life for everyone, it is that simple. But its totally against human instinct

When I think about this stuff, I can't help but think of sci-fi, and how species are all on a similar learning curve - how you progress through technologies, attain a higher form of understanding of how things could work, etc. Its like Stellaris is happening right in front of us Time for us to make an evolutional leap?

Anyway, GPUs. I kinda want one soon-ish

The People's "Republic" of China tried the one child policy and little infant girls ended up getting killed en mass because of it.

 

[Chomiq]

Looks like all 3070 Ti's have effectively pushed out 3080's LHR from the market, at least at caseking. You now have a choice between 3070 Ti at around €900 and 3080 non-LHR for €1400+.

AMD options are still overpriced:

Overall it looks like availability is improving but prices will take weeks if not months before (if ever) they come down to MSRP.

 

[The red spirit]

Looks like all 3070 Ti's have effectively pushed out 3080's LHR from the market, at least at caseking. You now have a choice between 3070 Ti at around €900 and 3080 non-LHR for €1400+.

View attachment 206224

View attachment 206225

AMD options are still overpriced:
View attachment 206226

Overall it looks like availability is improving but prices will take weeks if not months before (if ever) they come down to MSRP.

That's nice and all, but I think that the biggest problem now is that no manufacturer has a proper mid tier card at 200-300 Euros and at about 150W TDP. It seems that nV and AMD are now only serving rich people and people willing to spend a lot on their hobbies. I guess that's a good strategy, if you know you wouldn't be able to sell lots of units, so you sell less at more. Perhaps things will recover, but imo loosing top tier cards isn't a loss to gamer, the real loss to us are those mid-tier bang for the buck cards that have mass appeal. I would dare to say that pretty much any xTX xx70/xx80 card has been mostly irrelevant and very unimportant, same for AMD.

 

[FireFox]

Looks like all 3070 Ti's have effectively pushed out 3080's LHR from the market, at least at caseking. You now have a choice between 3070 Ti at around €900 and 3080 non-LHR for €1400+.

View attachment 206224

View attachment 206225

AMD options are still overpriced:
View attachment 206226

Overall it looks like availability is improving but prices will take weeks if not months before (if ever) they come down to MSRP.

Whatever you buy from Caseking it's always more expensive than other sellers.

 

[Chomiq]

That's nice and all, but I think that the biggest problem now is that no manufacturer has a proper mid tier card at 200-300 Euros and at about 150W TDP. It seems that nV and AMD are now only serving rich people and people willing to spend a lot on their hobbies. I guess that's a good strategy, if you know you wouldn't be able to sell lots of units, so you sell less at more. Perhaps things will recover, but imo loosing top tier cards isn't a loss to gamer, the real loss to us are those mid-tier bang for the buck cards that have mass appeal. I would dare to say that pretty much any xTX xx70/xx80 card has been mostly irrelevant and very unimportant, same for AMD.

You're still stuck in 2017 era of "mid tier. 200-300 € is no longer "mid tier", not with 1440p and 4K high refresh rates gaining more popularity. With 4K 144 Hz gaining ground mid tier will now be 1440p high refresh rate. 200-300€ is now the low-mid tier but yeah, there's nothing out there brand new that matches this price range. Unless this changes low end will be down to whether or not you want to buy a console and use basic PC for office stuff.

Whatever you buy from Caseking it's always more expensive than other sellers.

It's the only German retailer that's shipping outside of Germany to Poland (yeah yeah, mindfactory ships to Austria and Denmark or something like that). I'm well aware of their prices being higher than the competition. It's still cheaper than prices in Poland right now (but I'm not touching them unless they match the MSRP).