Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Space Lynx]

Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection

Simultaneous infections are rare but can happen, particularly in people yet to be vaccinated, warn experts.

www.bbc.com

two variants in one person... possibility of more likelihood of death... the lady was old and had no vaccine though... so not sure this will amount to anything. something to def keep an eye on though... I wonder what getting the Delta and Delta+ variant at the same time would look like in a double vaccinated person...

 

[Ahhzz]

Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection

Simultaneous infections are rare but can happen, particularly in people yet to be vaccinated, warn experts.

www.bbc.com

two variants in one person... possibility of more likelihood of death... the lady was old and had no vaccine though... so not sure this will amount to anything. something to def keep an eye on though... I wonder what getting the Delta and Delta+ variant at the same time would look like in a double vaccinated person...

90 year old woman should have been early in the vaccination path. Any information why she wasn't?

 

[Space Lynx]

90 year old woman should have been early in the vaccination path. Any information why she wasn't?

it was in march 2021, and belgium. not sure if they had vaccine access yet then.

 

[Ahhzz]

it was in march 2021, and belgium. not sure if they had vaccine access yet then.

wow... I had no idea.....

Your all-in-one guide to Belgium’s coronavirus vaccine rollout

Officials say all adults can get their first shot by July 11 if they want it — barring no further setbacks, that is.

www.politico.eu

 

[claes]

Yeah — if you aren’t in one of our first class nations then vaccines are pretty hard to come by. Early buyers cleaned out the market and are, for the most part, just sitting on vaccines that might go unused in this point

 

[Space Lynx]

Yeah — if you aren’t in one of our first class nations then vaccines are pretty hard to come by. Early buyers cleaned out the market and are, for the most part, just sitting on vaccines that might go unused in this point

yep, it's really weird we don't have better logistics in place... I feel like there are plenty of vaccines sitting around... there should have been a policy in place that stated, when no one is getting shots anymore you ship 90% of the supply back to Y location, then when all gathered Pfizer/Moderna ship in mass to areas that need it.

edit: how do these people in power make six figure salaries again? I find it really odd... LOL

 

[Ahhzz]

yep, it's really weird we don't have better logistics in place... I feel like there are plenty of vaccines sitting around... there should have been a policy in place that stated, when no one is getting shots anymore you ship 90% of the supply back to Y location, then when all gathered Pfizer/Moderna ship in mass to areas that need it.

Ah, but that assumes that humans aren't selfish. the last few years have reinforced that fallacy in my mind over and over....

 

[Space Lynx]

Ah, but that assumes that humans aren't selfish. the last few years have reinforced that fallacy in my mind over and over....

I disagree with this, I think it's more lazy bureaucratic oversight more than anything.

 

[Ahhzz]

I disagree with this, I think it's more lazy bureaucratic oversight more than anything.

either way, it's sad...

 

[dragontamer5788]

Anyone wanna guess what the new R0 is of Delta?

COVID19 was originally an R0 of 3-ish. Alpha was over 50% more transmissible, and Delta is 50% more transmissible than that. Are we really looking at R0 of 6 to 8? If that's the case, then we'll need 85ish% effective vaccination rates to prevent the exponential growth of Delta. Not 85% vaccinated, but "effective" vaccinated (because the mRNA vaccines are only 80% effective at preventing transmission IIRC).

As we can see, that's a problem for herd immunity: it seems like Delta has removed herd immunity as an option. Fortunately, Plan B is "get vaccinated so that you don't go into the hospital" (which still seems to work: vaccinations prevent something like 90%+ of hospitalizations and deaths). So either way, vaccinations are our answer, but we may not be able to stop the next wave. Depending of course, on how bad R0 of Delta really is (no one really can test that until after-the-fact).

Assuming we can reach 70%ish effective vaccination rates, we're good for up to R0 of 3.33 or so. By current estimates, I'm pretty sure that Delta is beyond R0 of 3.33, though how much so is up to speculation.

 

[dragontamer5788]

yep, it's really weird we don't have better logistics in place... I feel like there are plenty of vaccines sitting around... there should have been a policy in place that stated, when no one is getting shots anymore you ship 90% of the supply back to Y location, then when all gathered Pfizer/Moderna ship in mass to areas that need it.

edit: how do these people in power make six figure salaries again? I find it really odd... LOL

That's less efficient than "not shipping vaccines from the factory".

If you have a supply chain from A -> B -> C -> D, where A is making say 1-million vaccines a week, B is a hub receiving 100,000 vaccines a week, C is a hub receiving 10,000 vaccines a week, and D is your final pharmacy or whatever receiving 1000 vaccines a week (A distributes the 1-million vaccines to 10 states, the 10 states distributes the vaccines to 100 warehouses, and the 100 warehouses distributes the vaccines to 1000 pharmacies), then there's no point shipping things backwards.

You instead, just redirect A to ship things to a new location. Furthermore, the supply chains do not work in reverse: its very easy to open a pallet, but it takes extremely specialized equipment to package a pallet. Furthermore, A has quality controls ensuring that the temperature of all vaccines stayed at the -80C or -30C temperatures across the supply chain.

 

[Space Lynx]

Plan B is "get vaccinated so that you don't go into the hospital" (which still seems to work: vaccinations prevent something like 90%+ of hospitalizations and deaths).

I said this months ago. PCR tests aren't worth crap on airplanes/international travel, the virus sneaks in anyway, and since nation states are too dumb to realize this, its only logical to conclude covid will never end.

That's less efficient than "not shipping vaccines from the factory".

If you have a supply chain from A -> B -> C -> D, where A is making say 1-million vaccines a week, B is a hub receiving 100,000 vaccines a week, C is a hub receiving 10,000 vaccines a week, and D is your final pharmacy or whatever receiving 1000 vaccines a week (A distributes the 1-million vaccines to 10 states, the 10 states distributes the vaccines to 100 warehouses, and the 100 warehouses distributes the vaccines to 1000 pharmacies), then there's no point shipping things backwards.

You instead, just redirect A to ship things to a new location. Furthermore, the supply chains do not work in reverse: its very easy to open a pallet, but it takes extremely specialized equipment to package a pallet. Furthermore, A has quality controls ensuring that the temperature of all vaccines stayed at the -80C or -30C temperatures across the supply chain.

seriously, you already spent 6 trillion, can't spend 1 billion more in shipping costs?

 

[dragontamer5788]

seriously, you already spent 6 trillion, can't spend 1 billion more in shipping costs?

Palletizer machines exist in "A", the factory. Intermediate warehouses, such as "B and C" only have forklifts: they are only designed to move pallets (and maybe C just opens pallets since D (pharmacies) don't use enough vaccine to warrant a full pallet delivery).

Your proposal is to somehow "magically" give palletizer machines to D: the pharmacies. Unfortunately, logistics just doesn't work like that. Palletizer machines cost millions of dollars and are only efficient in one direction (that is: packaging things at the factory when all those boxes are in order, and are inefficient at packaging everywhere else). Furthermore: we can't just deploy palletizer machines everywhere: they need to be temperature controlled palletizer machines because these vaccines go bad once they leave -80C or -30C temperatures.

Furthermore: D (pharmacies) don't have -30C refrigerators. They're likely being shipped out with dry-ice which expires in a few weeks. There's literally not enough dry ice to even make the return trip to the factory.

-------------

There's no way to reasonably expect for pharmacies to return the vaccines under the temperature conditions + packaging conditions needed for mass logistics (that is: in pallets at guaranteed temperatures of -80C). No amount of money can solve the literally impossible request. Pharmacies don't have the space for palletizer machines, they don't have the staff who understand how to work, maintain, or configure them. They don't have the temperature controls, they don't have anything at all.

Once distributed, the vaccines stay at the endpoint. Logistics is NOT an easy problem at all.

 

[Space Lynx]

Your proposal is to somehow "magically" give palletizer machines to D: the pharmacies.

the leftover vaccines probably aren't enough to require that machine for your average pharmacy. should be a simple matter of frozen trucks picking up supplies, setting their internal temp to -16 inside the truck storage (which is possible, they do it with other frozen goods on certain specialized semi's)

then that semi can travel to capital city airport where they are all gathered together and flown somewhere overnight.

-80 celsius is an outdated notion. Pfizer already announced a long time ago they can be stored for 1 month at -16 or so just like moderna.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Washington Post's COVID19 tracker. Last time I posted, only two states seemed to have dramatic swings upwards. Now the top 5 states all look like they've swung up in COVID19 cases (probably Delta). There's an average of +105% cases across the country: but most states remain safely under 10 cases/day per 100,000 residents (USA's average remains at 7). Nothing to worry about yet, but clearly a disturbing trend.

We know the pipeline at this point: cases turn into hospitalizations, hospitalizations turn into deaths, with a couple weeks of delay. However, we have large sections of our population vaccinated (although less so for these states: Arkansas is still over 30% vaccinated), which should cut down the death / hospitalization rates by a good chunk. How bad this next wave is going to be is anyone's guess... but its clear that the more vaccine your fellow citizens have taken in your area, the safer you'll be.

Anyone who hasn't taken the vaccine (and I know there's lots of you!!!), here's your chance to get ahead of the wave. Delta hasn't really begun to spread yet, and there's plenty of vaccines available all around the country. It takes over a month before the vaccine fully kicks in however. But... even partial vaccination will help you out in case the "Delta" wave comes to your neighborhood.

 

[Space Lynx]

I'm actually getting my second shot tomorrow. Here is to hoping I don't get myocardia, but myocardia is better than dying I suppose.

 

[R-T-B]

I'm actually getting my second shot tomorrow. Here is to hoping I don't get myocardia, but myocardia is better than dying I suppose.

FWIW, I suffer from a heart condition (Wolf Parkinsons White) and I was told no question, still get the vaccine, and both of them.

 

[Space Lynx]

FWIW, I suffer from a hearth condition (Wolf Parkinsons White) and I was told no question, still get the vaccine, and both of them.

Yeah, I am not to worried about it anymore. Mainly doing it because Covid almost killed me as I mentioned before in November. Fear is powerful, that is only reason it took me so long... for both shots. lol

I'm ready now though and I am within the 6 weeks the CDC still says the second shot is effective, so it's all good.

 

[64K]

I'm actually getting my second shot tomorrow. Here is to hoping I don't get myocardia, but myocardia is better than dying I suppose.

The chances of myocardia are rare from what I've read. There have been around 1,000 cases reported but compared to the hundreds of millions of vaccinated people the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor of being fine.

 

[Space Lynx]

The chances of myocardia are rare from what I've read. There have been around 1,000 cases reported but compared to the hundreds of millions of vaccinated people the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor of being fine.

yep, and I believe those 1000 people are just given a beta blocker I believe to treat it? can't remember, but I think i read that. turns out I already take a beta blocker... so I am sitting good. lol

 

[dragontamer5788]

In my state, confirmed cases has climbed above +100 / day, and %Positive is now above 1%. Hospitalizations hit 97 (just below 100) a couple of weeks ago, but have slightly ticked up since then to 132 hospitalizations.

Despite being one of the most vaccinated states in the USA, we're still seeing an uptick in cases around here. Seems like Delta is pretty serious. Again: these numbers are still superb, nothing to "fear" quite yet. What worries me is the trend. And a big question is how will the worse-vaccinated states fare in the next few weeks?

 

[HTC]

Portugal has reached 60% with 1st dose and is @ 39.9% with full vaccination, and yet we're in the middle of a 4th wave, with 3.5K to 4K+ new daily cases (the equivalent of 112K to 128K+ new daily cases in USA, when accounting for population difference).

Thankfully, our daily death toll is STILL in single digit, though it has been increasing these last few weeks. Also, during the 1st time we had such high new daily case numbers, we had WAY HIGHER hospitalized AND ICU numbers than we do now: 3 to 4 times more, back then.

A testament to the vaccines efficacy in protecting those most vulnerable.

 

[Xzibit]

TWP: WHO clarifies details of early covid patients in Wuhan after errors in virus report​

The agency confirmed that the earliest official case, Patient S01, was a 41-year-old man, with virus genome sequences EPI_ISL_403930, MT019531, and GWHABKH00000001 in various databases. The report had listed a different sequence, belonging to a 61-year-old man, which Jasarevic called an editing error.

Jasarevic said the WHO is still looking into why the official China National Genomics Data Center (NGDC) database says Patient S01 began to exhibit symptoms on Dec. 16, 2019, a week later than the Dec. 8 onset recorded in the WHO report.

The lack of clarity on Patient S01 introduces the possibility that the earliest official case could have been someone different, with the WHO report mentioning a Huanan market seafood vendor and others who began exhibiting symptoms before Dec. 16.

The WHO, however, also clarified that the first family cluster of infections in Wuhan had no exposure to the Huanan seafood market, although a woman in the group had been to other markets. The report previously gave conflicting information in different sections about the family’s links to the market.
Jasarevic said sequence IDs will be corrected for two other patients in the report. S05 was a 61-year-old man who died, with genome sequence EPI_ISL_403928, and S11 was a 52-year-old woman with sequence EPI_ISL_403929, he said.

Obvi

After the report was published, even the WHO’s director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, expressed concern about China’s level of transparency and called for a more thorough investigation.

Sigh

 

[Space Lynx]

TWP: WHO clarifies details of early covid patients in Wuhan after errors in virus report​

Obvi


Sigh

the fact China really hasn't been transparent from the beginning, and basically silenced some Doctors early on... and now new reports the military was doing side research at the Wuhan Lab... it all smells like rotten fish to me.

 

[Caring1]

Here we go again, ignoring the fact cases existed prior to the Wuhan outbreak in a finger pointing exercise.