Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[the54thvoid]

I was wondering why they didn't break down deaths like they did Cases & Acute Hospitalizations.

View attachment 217337
Since 05 August 2021 report
39 - Unvaccinated
8 - 1 Dose
132 - 2 Doses

Its starting a similar pattern to Public Health England.

Your clear implication is that vaccinated people are dying more than unvaxed. In absolutes, from that date, that may be true. But you are absolutely putting out numbers without context. So, since 1st August:

131 vaxxed deaths
47 unvaxxed (one dose against delta is about 30% effective, it hardly counts as a vaccine course).

83% of over 16's are double vaccinated. over 16 is pretty much the lowest age for a death in Scotland, bar one or two cases. 47 deaths belong to 17% of the population. Those are far worse odds than the 131 deaths from 83% of the population.

I've stated months back, that as the vaccine roll-out progresses, and as scientists have also clearly said, the deaths will predominantly come from the vaccinated group (especially in a country where there is high vaccination rates). Also, given Delta has a hit on efficacy, 15% of fully vaxxed persons are still susceptible to Covid. Of those, some will die. And those are the numbers you are posting.

It would be better statistical analysis to look at a state (try the US) with a very low vaccination rate and look at those deaths. John Hopkins reports this:

In the 10 states with the lowest vaccination rates, there is an average of about 34 deaths per 1 million residents, and in states with the highest, the average is six deaths per 1 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

But, I'd like to point out, even in those states with higher deaths, the vaccines are working. 34 deaths per million isn't staggeringly bad.

 

[Space Lynx]

Your clear implication is that vaccinated people are dying more than unvaxed. In absolutes, from that date, that may be true. But you are absolutely putting out numbers without context. So, since 1st August:

131 vaxxed deaths
47 unvaxxed (one dose against delta is about 30% effective, it hardly counts as a vaccine course).

83% of over 16's are double vaccinated. over 16 is pretty much the lowest age for a death in Scotland, bar one or two cases. 47 deaths belong to 17% of the population. Those are far worse odds than the 131 deaths from 83% of the population.

I've stated months back, that as the vaccine roll-out progresses, and as scientists have also clearly said, the deaths will predominantly come from the vaccinated group (especially in a country where there is high vaccination rates). Also, given Delta has a hit on efficacy, 15% of fully vaxxed persons are still susceptible to Covid. Of those, some will die. And those are the numbers you are posting.

It would be better statistical analysis to look at a state (try the US) with a very low vaccination rate and look at those deaths. John Hopkins reports this:



But, I'd like to point out, even in those states with higher deaths, the vaccines are working. 34 deaths per million isn't staggeringly bad.

Now now, careful with your wording mate. 1 shot of pfizer is plenty enough in those who previously had covid and had symptoms and recovered. plenty of studies show it.

 

[Xzibit]

Your clear implication is that vaccinated people are dying more than unvaxed. In absolutes, from that date, that may be true. But you are absolutely putting out numbers without context. So, since 1st August:

No. I was curious as to the reporting of stats reference to eligibility of population and why the deviance when it came to deaths reporting from the PHS.

131 vaxxed deaths
47 unvaxxed (one dose against delta is about 30% effective, it hardly counts as a vaccine course).

83% of over 16's are double vaccinated. over 16 is pretty much the lowest age for a death in Scotland, bar one or two cases. 47 deaths belong to 17% of the population. Those are far worse odds than the 131 deaths from 83% of the population.

That's the same assumption of said % of people being exposed to the virus which is fine but you end up including the unexposed.

With-in the time frame of reports (August 5 - September 2)

Unvaccinated cases
47,994
Death %
0.082

2 Doses Cases
42,034
Death %
0.315

 

[the54thvoid]

And the majority of unvaccinated people are younger. Deaths will be lower - that's a known quantity for Covid mortality. Of course deaths in the unvaccinated younger population per case will be lower. The populations that are suffering death is the older groups (who are pretty much all vaccinated). But here is the best comparator for what's going on with vaccinations.

Deaths now:

(100% vaccinated groups only)
65+ : 38 weekly deaths

Deaths in the same age group mid Jan 2021 (post Christmas surge where rates were still far lower than today)
65+ : 388 (ten times higher without vaccinations, and apart from a two-day relaxation at Christmas, under strict lockdown)

From that date onwards, we were really good with vaccinations and by late march the deaths in the 65+ age group, many of whom had been vaccinated and before Delta had spread had dropped to just 23 per week.

 

[Vayra86]

No. I was curious as to the reporting of stats reference to eligibility of population and why the deviance when it came to deaths reporting from the PHS.



That's the same assumption of said % of people being exposed to the virus which is fine but you end up including the unexposed.

With-in the time frame of reports (August 5 - September 2)

Unvaccinated cases
47,994
Death %
0.082

2 Doses Cases
42,034
Death %
0.315

Check my picture on the last page and it will quickly delete any doubts you have on those numbers. The bottom line is, you're reading them wrong because they're flattened to a single number and that pic explains what's truly happening between age groups and whether or not they've had vaccination.

Also, stats don't readily 'make visible' what kind of situations they actually show us. The pic also serves that purpose: try to translate the little balls that stand out to you in real world situations. One example was given. This provides the necessary framework to actually believe stats for what they really are - fact & common sense based. Anything else we do with it, is our own perspectives coloring the stats in the wrong way. It requires taking a step back and considering how people in different age groups live, what common habits are in terms of travel and lifestyle, and how wealth is divided, that sort of stuff.

Humans also have a lot of problems with relativity when it comes to stats. We need to actively 'think around that', so that's why I posted this.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Now now, careful with your wording mate. 1 shot of pfizer is plenty enough in those who previously had covid and had symptoms and recovered. plenty of studies show it.

Yep, and there are other studies that also show that if that natural immunity is more than 6 months old and/or you get infected with a different variant that efficacy can be much reduced, both vaccine and natural immunity obviously reduce over time, hence why many concur with what you are saying but still recommend that 2nd jab.

 

[HTC]

Here are Portugal's updated numbers this week.



The pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until yesterday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

The usual report wasn't published last Wednesday so i had to use the situation report instead.

- 33873 active cases --- 3846 less --- 549 less per day
- 1010168 recovered --- 10264 more --- 1466 more per day
- 17907 fatalities --- 46 more --- 7 more per day
- 1062048 confirmed infected --- 6464 more --- 923 more per day

- 17940980 tests taken --- 522025 more --- 52203 more per day but was last updated September 18th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 455 hospitalized --- 114 less --- 16 less per day
- 86 in ICU --- 34 less --- 5 less per day

Week fatalities decreased noticeably VS last week and the average is in single digits for the 2nd week in a row. The R number decreased again and is now 0.83 on average (last updated Friday). New daily cases decreased less than last week but still quite substantially and hospitalized / ICU numbers have dropped sharply VS last week.

This weekend Portugal interrupted regular scheduled vaccination again in order to vaccinate youngsters aged 12 to 15 (2nd dose): roughly 74K more youngsters took their 2nd dose this weekend, or so it was said in the news channels.

 

[Space Lynx]

Yep, and there are other studies that also show that if that natural immunity is more than 6 months old and/or you get infected with a different variant that efficacy can be much reduced, both vaccine and natural immunity obviously reduce over time, hence why many concur with what you are saying but still recommend that 2nd jab.

also @dragontamer5788

I agree with that. I intend to get my second jab still. Just being strategic with my timing.

Also, a question for both of you, are there any stats showing someone who has natural immunity and no jabs dying from it a second time catching it? I am curious about those numbers genuinely I am, but can't find any actual stats from reputable websites. So that stat + another stat, those with natural immunity + one jab, any dead? That's what I want to know. I still think I am safe for now.

 

[LFaWolf]

also @dragontamer5788

I agree with that. I intend to get my second jab still. Just being strategic with my timing.

Also, a question for both of you, are there any stats showing someone who has natural immunity and no jabs dying from it a second time catching it? I am curious about those numbers genuinely I am, but can't find any actual stats from reputable websites. So that stat + another stat, those with natural immunity + one jab, any dead? That's what I want to know. I still think I am safe for now.

Actually I read about couple of stories of exactly that - people that thought the previous infection would give them immunity but ended up dying. But as for broader statistical study, I do not know of any.

 

[Space Lynx]

Actually I read about couple of stories of exactly that - people that thought the previous infection would give them immunity but ended up dying. But as for broader statistical study, I do not know of any.

Very good, now I need only need know about have any people died that had previous natural immunity, then got one shot, did any of them die...

My theory is that if I get my second shot about 6 months after my first, it will act as a third booster of sorts since i had natural immunity (the rest of you unless 65 or older don't get a 3rd booster so you will be vulnerable at first to the wave that is incoming this winter), so come winter time I am going to be protected way way better than the rest of you when the huge winter spike that is incoming hits... imo Covid is a new beast unlike anything we have ever seen.

By being strategic with the timing of my second shot, I will be much better off than most people. CDC is not a God, and I for one am glad I am utilizing the science of many countries to make my decisions.

 

[Caring1]

Just being strategic with my timing.

Some call it procrastinating.

 

[Space Lynx]

Some call it procrastinating.

I honestly think people that got vaccinated 11+ months ago are in trouble, unless you are 65 or older and can get your third shot. This winter I think we will see an uptick in deaths in fully vaccinated people at younger age ranges, cause mRNA is proving to not be the long term miracle we had hoped it would be. Short term its great, but not long term.

It will take a strong wave of younger 40-60 year old deaths spiking before they allow the third shot this winter for that age range... so I actually will be sitting in a much safer spot than the rest of you... :/ since my second jab will be prime timed for winter and technically act as my third booster.

 

[the54thvoid]

LQ'd posts for conjecture on vaccine strategy. I've said it before, use the lounge for open rambling.

 

[Space Lynx]

LQ'd posts for conjecture on vaccine strategy. I've said it before, use the lounge for open rambling.

I'm not sure how post 3808 is LQ worthy, I was requesting Covid Stats. LAWOLF asked me a question so I responded here, so fair enough on those, but I had a right to respond. /shrug

 

[dragontamer5788]

Case numbers be going down on the average for the USA in general.

But local numbers are going up in my neighborhood (!!). Hmmmmmm.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Hmmm, +1405 cases since yesterday is quite a lot, but daily-fluctuations are very random. Its hard to "spot the trend" (see the Confirmed Cases over time). For now, I'll say that we're probably neutral? Neither going up or down (or at least, very difficult to tell which direction we're going).

The country-level maps are a different story however: the virus has moved from the deep south (Texas/Florida) and is now largely in West Virginia and Ohio, states that are very close to mine. Even if the country is overall declining: our neighbors are probably going to spread the virus towards our state.

 

[xkm1948]

Scientists have found three viruses in bats in Laos that are more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses. Researchers say that parts of their genetic code bolster claims that the virus behind COVID-19 has a natural origin — but their discovery also raises fears that there are numerous coronaviruses with the potential to infect people.

Closest known relatives of virus behind COVID-19 found in Laos

Studies of bats in China and Laos show southeast Asia is a hotspot for potentially dangerous viruses similar to SARS-CoV-2.

www.nature.com

With rapid climate change and deforestation, and most importantly the total anit-science finger pointing / blame shifting way humanity dealt with COVID19, I have very slim hope that next decade will see any improvement in handling potentially a lot more viral spill over event.

 

[Space Lynx]

Scientists have found three viruses in bats in Laos that are more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses. Researchers say that parts of their genetic code bolster claims that the virus behind COVID-19 has a natural origin — but their discovery also raises fears that there are numerous coronaviruses with the potential to infect people.

Closest known relatives of virus behind COVID-19 found in Laos

Studies of bats in China and Laos show southeast Asia is a hotspot for potentially dangerous viruses similar to SARS-CoV-2.

www.nature.com

With rapid climate change and deforestation, and most importantly the total anit-science finger pointing / blame shifting way humanity dealt with COVID19, I have very slim hope that next decade will see any improvement in handling potentially a lot more viral spill over event.

How do they know this virus was in bats before Covid though? Even Lions at the zoo are testing positive for Covid, its also been found in ice cream. I mean, these bats could have got it just from the craziness of the world, even if it is a little different, doesn't mean they have had it dormant.

 

[dragontamer5788]

How do they know this virus was in bats before Covid though? Even Lions at the zoo are testing positive for Covid, its also been found in ice cream. I mean, these bats could have got it just from the craziness of the world, even if it is a little different, doesn't mean they have had it dormant.

You know that we have the COVID19 sequence these days, right?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate SARS-CoV-2/hum - Nucleotide - NCBI

       1 cttcccaggt aacaaaccaa ccaactttcg atctcttgta gatctgttct ctaaacgaac
       61 tttaaaatct gtgtggctgt cactcggctg catgcttagt gcactcacgc agtataatta
      121 ataactaatt actgtcgttg acaggacacg agtaactcgt ctatcttctg caggctgctt
      181 acggtttcgt ccgtgttgca gccgatcatc agcacatcta ggtttcgtcc gggtgtgacc
      241 gaaaggtaag atggagagcc ttgtccctgg tttcaacgag aaaacacacg tccaactcag
      301 tttgcctgtt ttacaggttc gcgacgtgct cgtacgtggc tttggagact ccgtggagga
      361 ggtcttatca gaggcacgtc aacatcttaa agatggcact tgtggcttag tagaagttga
      421 aaaaggcgtt ttgcctcaac ttgaacagcc ctatgtgttc atcaaacgtt cggatgctcg
      481 aactgcacct catggtcatg ttatggttga gctggtagca gaactcgaag gcattcagta
      541 cggtcgtagt ggtgagacac ttggtgtcct tgtccctcat gtgggcgaaa taccagtggc
      601 ttaccgcaag gttcttcttc gtaagaacgg taataaagga gctggtggcc atagttacgg
      661 cgccgatcta aagtcatttg acttaggcga cgagcttggc actgatcctt atgaagattt
      721 tcaagaaaac tggaacacta aacatagcag tggtgttacc cgtgaactca tgcgtgagct
      781 taacggaggg gcatacactc gctatgtcga taacaacttc tgtggccctg atggctaccc
      841 tcttgagtgc attaaagacc ttctagcacg tgctggtaaa gcttcatgca ctttgtccga
      901 acaactggac tttattgaca ctaagagggg tgtatactgc tgccgtgaac atgagcatga
      961 aattgcttgg tacacggaac gttctgaaaa gagctatgaa ttgcagacac cttttgaaat
     1021 taaattggca aagaaatttg acaccttcaa tggggaatgt ccaaattttg tatttccctt
     1081 aaattccata atcaagacta ttcaaccaag ggttgaaaag aaaaagcttg atggctttat
     1141 gggtagaatt cgatctgtct atccagttgc gtcaccaaat gaatgcaacc aaatgtgcct
     1201 ttcaactctc atgaagtgtg atcattgtgg tgaaacttca tggcagacgg gcgattttgt
     1261 taaagccact tgcgaatttt gtggcactga gaatttgact aaagaaggtg ccactacttg
     1321 tggttactta ccccaaaatg ctgttgttaa aatttattgt ccagcatgtc acaattcaga
     1381 agtaggacct gagcatagtc ttgccgaata ccataatgaa tctggcttga aaaccattct
     1441 tcgtaagggt ggtcgcacta ttgcctttgg aggctgtgtg ttctcttatg ttggttgcca
     1501 taacaagtgt gcctattggg ttccacgtgc tagcgctaac ataggttgta accatacagg
     1561 tgttgttgga gaaggttccg aaggtcttaa tgacaacctt cttgaaatac tccaaaaaga
     1621 gaaagtcaac atcaatattg ttggtgactt taaacttaat gaagagatcg ccattatttt
     1681 ggcatctttt tctgcttcca caagtgcttt tgtggaaact gtgaaaggtt tggattataa
     1741 agcattcaaa caaattgttg aatcctgtgg taattttaaa gttacaaaag gaaaagctaa
     1801 aaaaggtgcc tggaatattg gtgaacagaa atcaatactg agtcctcttt atgcatttgc
     1861 atcagaggct gctcgtgttg tacgatcaat tttctcccgc actcttgaaa ctgctcaaaa

... (etc. etc.)

Etc. etc. The sequence will only line up if they're from the same lineage. Same technology as DNA-sequencing, except RNA-based because this virus's "code" is RNA.

EDIT: And my understanding is that the code that does this is basically "Perl Regexes" and "diff", that computer programmers are very familiar with. Longest common subsequence, ya know? The same thing that generates Wikipedia diffs (Ex: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=COVID-19&type=revision&diff=1046085604&oldid=1038135202) is used for tracking changes / mutations in RNA sequences.

 

[Xzibit]

Scientists have found three viruses in bats in Laos that are more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses. Researchers say that parts of their genetic code bolster claims that the virus behind COVID-19 has a natural origin — but their discovery also raises fears that there are numerous coronaviruses with the potential to infect people.

Closest known relatives of virus behind COVID-19 found in Laos

Studies of bats in China and Laos show southeast Asia is a hotspot for potentially dangerous viruses similar to SARS-CoV-2.

www.nature.com

With rapid climate change and deforestation, and most importantly the total anit-science finger pointing / blame shifting way humanity dealt with COVID19, I have very slim hope that next decade will see any improvement in handling potentially a lot more viral spill over event.

They also said earlier this year

Even before the outbreak started, the Wuhan Institute had studied one whose genetic code is 96% identical to SARS-CoV-2. That’s as good a match as the “missing link” found for the original SARS.

 

[HTC]

They also said earlier this year

Even before the outbreak started, the Wuhan Institute had studied one whose genetic code is 96% identical to SARS-CoV-2. That’s as good a match as the “missing link” found for the original SARS.

Wasn't the difference between human DNA and the closest chimp DNA just 2 percent?

Perhaps @xkm1948 can shed some light on this because, if so, then those 4% difference to SARS-CoV-2 is "almost a world of difference".

 

[xkm1948]

How do they know this virus was in bats before Covid though? Even Lions at the zoo are testing positive for Covid, its also been found in ice cream. I mean, these bats could have got it just from the craziness of the world, even if it is a little different, doesn't mean they have had it dormant.

molecular clock. RNA and DNA mutate at a given rate, We already have a vast amount of full genome COVID19 data. By comparing sequence differences we can determine which are ancestral strain and which are later strain.


To HTC,

For simpler genome like COVID19 which only has 29 thousand basepairs, you can do simple alignment and call the difference.

Eukarotic animals such as us, you cannot do simple DNA base-pair difference alignment. We are multi-cellular, 6 billion backstairs genome. There are a lot of regulation of gene expression involved that give rise to phenotypic differences between human and chimp.



Bacteria ATP synthase, that one that takes proton gradient that makes energy you need

Now the same protein coded by the human version of gene

 

[the54thvoid]

If I'm correct, @xkm1948 is literally a genetic scientist. They know what they're talking about.

 

[xkm1948]

If I'm correct, @xkm1948 is literally a genetic scientist. They know what they're talking about.

Thx. We are but just scratching the surface of molecular genetics, despite all the progress we still know so little.

I am staying out of this thread going forward. Too much work already and science communication to general public is really not my strong point.

 

[R-T-B]

With rapid climate change and deforestation, and most importantly the total anit-science finger pointing / blame shifting way humanity dealt with COVID19, I have very slim hope that next decade will see any improvement in handling potentially a lot more viral spill over event.

I'm worried about the global warming denial at the moment and all the viruses we know are frozen in the ice sheet/glaciers from prehistory. Stuff we have no immunity to. It's all coming out to play with us now.

I am staying out of this thread going forward. Too much work already and science communication to general public is really not my strong point.

Appreciate the insight all the same. Keep up the good work.