Graphics Card Prices at Record Lows, Sweetspot-segment Finally Affordable

[Valantar]

This sentiment pops up frequently, but I'm not convinced it's the case. The graphics market being bananas right now doesn't make GPUs exempt from the general rules of manufactured products. Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (or sometimes Recommended Retail Price) exists because the manufacturer has run the numbers on manufacturing and supply chain costs against market research and come up with a number that they think will result in the target number of sales. This helps everyone on the chain negotiate or set prices at an "appropriate" level.

Sometimes, though, a market goes sideways. Toilet paper (in the US) at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The new Ford Bronco, among numerous other examples from the car world. Granted, there isn't an MSRP for toiled paper. But the point is, prices tend to return to baseline. Bogroll's back in line with other paper products. Hot vehicles often end up being sold at a discount a few model years later once the launch spike in demand dries out. Not that long ago, folks were lamenting that PC gaming was dead or dying (they still are, but for different reasons). Stuff changes. Crypto will either settle, shift or bust. Demand will become sated, and/or supply will catch up with it. Could take another year, could take five. I'll admit the possibility exists that the good times are over, and that we won't see capable cards at the USD200 price point again. But it's easy to make the mistake of thinking that since a situation's been around for too long, that it'll be that way forever.



Good times, good times...



Direct links or not, the markets seem as jittery as they've been in years, so ripple effects will be even less predictable, IMO. Plus, fuel prices push everything else up, sometimes disproportionately. But I hope you're right; however, I'm personally more concerned about the effects on the population of Ukraine and the larger geopolitical fallout than the IC market. I suppose we're not here to talk about that, though.

Agreed. Potential effects on IC production and shipping aren't even a blip on the map of concerns from this crap. You're right that market instability in general can affect it, but that's also very unpredictable - and historically, tech is relatively stable in the face of things like these simply due to consistent demand. That doesn't mean immune, but less likely to see major effects.

Hi,
Think everyone has delivery issues way before this invasion crap started so adding more expense isn't going to help prices go down.

Fuel prices don't really affect shipping costs that much, as the scale of the ships and the amounts of cargo they carry makes them very cheap to run - the container shortage and delays are much more impactful than a fuel price hike in this regard. It might have some effect, but not a massive one, and likely not a noticeable one with the current inflated price levels. Remember, a single shipping container can fit thousands of GPUs (and likely tens of thousands of CPUs), and a single shipping vessel carries hundreds if not thousands of containers. Divided across this, you would need a massive spike in fuel prices for unit prices to be meaningfully affected.


What's more likely IMO is for distributors and others to capitalize on insecurity by hiking prices. But that wouldn't be caused by the war, that would be caused by greed and opportunism.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Man, I hope you're right. I know I'm guilty of being more on the negative side.

I feel you, and very often need to talk myself out of negative views on things.

 

[LabRat 891]

When you look @ the inflation in costs of Food, Fuel, etc., actually, yeah. These are some of the best RELATIVE prices on cards we've seen in a while.
Next Gen's MSRPs are NOT going to be anything like this and last gens.
Probably part of the reason we're getting 600W-capable power delivery options. If cards don't need to be optimized for a 'tight' MSRP, just go f'n wild, right?

 

[Valantar]

When you look @ the inflation in costs of Food, Fuel, etc., actually, yeah. These are some of the best RELATIVE prices on cards we've seen in a while.
Next Gen's MSRPs are NOT going to be anything like this and last gens.
Probably part of the reason we're getting 600W-capable power delivery options. If cards don't need to be optimized for a 'tight' MSRP, just go f'n wild, right?

While inflation and cost of living increases are definitely a factor in this, they aren't that big of a factor - $200 in 2012 US dollars is equivalent to a bit less than $250 today. So this can account for a slight uptick in MSRPs - but then the ever-broader range of acceptable levels of performance should also to some degree have been able to accommodate this by producing slightly "cheaper" SKUs at the old MSRPs.

I've kind of come to expect a rather changed GPU market going forward, as GPU makers have been operating for years on razor-thin margins, on the border of being a sustainable business at all - there's a reason why so many have thrown in the towel throughout the years. In light of that, it's no surprise that MSRPs are increasingly difficult to maintain as engineering costs rise due to higher bandwidths and signal integrity demands. Building a PCB that can handle PCIe 4.0 and GDDR6 is noticeably more challenging than building one that handles PCIe 3.0 and GDDR5 - and ballooning power delivery demands alongside a requirement for ever tighter voltage control just adds to that. So in light of that, there are more reasons than just 'corporate greed' behind the extreme focus on the high end and vaporware MSRPs that we've seen in recent year. Supply issues, component shortages, materials price increases and covid restrictions on the labor force are obviously also factors.

In light of that, and especially in combination with gaming having grown to be not only mainstream but a dominant cultural form, I don't see >$1000 GPUs going away any time soon - there are too many rich people interested in buying them for that to happen. While those cards are expensive to design and make, they still likely make more gross profit from one of those than from ten entry-level cards - and no business can operate on 3-4% margins long term. (That's also why so many component manufacturers are branching into much higher margin markets like peripherals.) Still, I have some modicum of hope that the current insanity can go away.

How so? Well, there's a much broader range of acceptable, usable performance today than a decade ago. The high end today is higher relative to the mainstream than it ever has been, and at the same time it's impressive how low end you can go and still have an enjoyable experience (now including the impressive Radeon 680m in the new 6000-series APUs). The baseline for acceptable gaming performance is really rather shockingly low. As such, I have some hope that we'll see the market "normalize" into broader availability of affordably priced cards again, just with a moderate shift towards these being a bit lower end than we would necessarily have hoped for. MSRPs following inflation and cost-of-living curves would be the ideal outcome of this - so, for an RX 580/GTX 1060 successor type card, we'd start at ~$250 instead of $200, with matching shifts up the price ranges. (And, of course, products would need to be designed by GPU makers so that those MSRPs are actually achievable.) GPU SKUs have proliferated enough in recent years to more than fill any gaps that might appear. But crucially, there'd need to be a lower end tier than that as well, filling the $150-200 range with actually useful products. Even if these were to appear somewhat underwhelming, that would be fine. If the RX 6500XT was slightly less poorly configured and $150, that would be pretty decent (though ideally it should then also have been called the 6400, but that's another argument). It wouldn't be good, but it would at least match the value of a cheap RX 570 back in the day, when accounting for inflation. It would still deliver acceptable entry-level performance for low-end PCs. And that's really all we need - available low-end and mid-range products that deliver acceptable performance. The biggest problem right now is the combination of a supply/process node crunch and companies being beholden to shareholders, forcing them (regardless of what they might want) to exclusively focus on the high end, as that's where the margins are. Now, I'm under no illusions that GPU makers are our friends, but I'm reasonably sure that most people working for them actually want people to be able to enjoy their products.

 

[lexluthermiester]

While inflation and cost of living increases are definitely a factor in this, they aren't that big of a factor - $200 in 2012 US dollars is equivalent to a bit less than $250 today.

That is absolutely untrue. Prices for everything in the last 6 months alone have jumped by more that 30%. Even the dollar store has raised it's prices 25% recently. It was in the news.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
I stocked up for new toilet paper shortage

 

[MentalAcetylide]

Hi,
I stocked up for new toilet paper shortage

I think the real problem to come is the price of oil. At least when there's a TP shortage, you can just drag your ass across the ground or a strip of excess carpet.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Hi,
I stocked up for new toilet paper shortage

I hope you're truly joking. People stocking up for the shortage is what causes the shortage.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Hi,
I stocked up for new toilet paper shortage

I hope you're truly joking. People stocking up for the shortage is what causes the shortage.

Sadly, no. I've done the same.

 

[ThrashZone]

I hope you're truly joking. People stocking up for the shortage is what causes the shortage.

Hi,
Toilet paper shortage hasn't ever happened before covid that I can remember unless a house papering crew of juveniles hit a few stores

Now it's a reality so part of preparations of repeat is inevitable.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Hi,
Toilet paper shortage hasn't ever happened before covid that I can remember unless a house papering crew of juveniles hit a few stores

Now it's a reality so part of preparations of repeat is inevitable.

Right. I've now got two full cases of TP in my storage room. And those are for emergency use only.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
I didn't buy that many lol

 

[Prima.Vera]

record low??? You guys are serious??

 

[lexluthermiester]

record low??? You guys are serious??

Sadly, they are..

 

[seth1911]

It isnt only the fault of nvidia or the board partners like asus or gigabyte,
everyone who buy those cards is too gulty, if no one would buy these cards they couldnt push the prices like that.

Miners a segmentary, but not the whole market.


I dont know anyone who is mining with a old 1660 or a new 6500 XT but those cards are up to 300€,
cause the people buy it for those prices.

 

[ThrashZone]

It isnt only the fault of nvidia or the board partners like asus or gigabyte,
everyone who buy those cards is too gulty, if no one would buy these cards they couldnt push the prices like that.

Miners a segmentary, but not the whole market.


I dont know anyone who is mining with a old 1660 or a new 6500 XT but those cards are up to 300€,
cause the people buy it for those prices.

Hi,
Yep those are the issue they don't understand buyers market verses sellers market concepts

 

[Valantar]

That is absolutely untrue. Prices for everything in the last 6 months alone have jumped by more that 30%. Even the dollar store has raised it's prices 25% recently. It was in the news.

... and? That is neither inflation nor cost of living expenses (which is typically tracked through broad consumer price indexes). If you're contradicting me, please at least use data that is applies to what I'm talking about.

 

[Dorek]

Low wattage card like this might be good for me since my electricity company is gonna bill me more than double the cost now, but most likely a lot more soon because of the war thingy.

 

[lexluthermiester]

... and? That is neither inflation nor cost of living expenses (which is typically tracked through broad consumer price indexes). If you're contradicting me, please at least use data that is applies to what I'm talking about.

What? I was being nice with my response earlier. But if you want to poke the bear...

You said...

While inflation and cost of living increases are definitely a factor in this, they aren't that big of a factor

...this, then followed with...

$200 in 2012 US dollars is equivalent to a bit less than $250 today.

...this. Which is completely incorrect. For example: In 2012, $0.69 bought a hardshell Taco at Taco Bell. Now that same menu item is $1.59. In 2012, a quart of motor oil was $3.99, now that same brand is $7.49. In 2012 a can of Progresso Clam Chowder soup was $.89, now it's $1.79. Picking up on a theme yet? You suggested that general prices have gone up only 20%. That is utter hogwash. Prices have jumped up 35% in that last 6 months ALONE, to say nothing of the previous decade..

If you fail to understand the context of my point, that failure is on you, not me.

Now lets focus on that same idea applied in context to the defined topic of this thread. GPUs price are staggeringly more expensive. In 2012 $600 bought you a top of the line GPU model(or very close to it) from either AMD or NVidia. That same $600 will barely get you a bottom tier model NOW. The top tier model? $2500 MSRP. Good luck getting it at that price though.

SO saying that spending $250 now was like spending $200 then is not only historically flawed, but is lacking any common sense whatsoever.

EDIT;
It has been suggested that you being in the EU(Sweden), things might be different and that we might be looking at the same world from very different perspectives. It is known that things in the EU are different from things in North America.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

What? I was being nice with my response earlier. But if you want to poke the bear...

You said...

...this, then followed with...

...this. Which is completely incorrect. For example: In 2012, $0.69 bought a hardshell Taco at Taco Bell. Now that same menu item is $1.59. In 2012, a quart of motor oil was $3.99, now that same brand is $7.49. In 2012 a can of Progresso Clam Chowder soup was $.89, now it's $1.79. Picking up on a theme yet? You suggested that general prices have gone up only 20%. That is utter hogwash. Prices have jumped up 35% in that last 6 months ALONE, to say nothing of the previous decade..

If you fail to understand the context of my point, that failure is on you, not me.

No lets focus on that same idea applied in context to the defined topic of this thread. GPUs price are staggeringly more expensive. In 2012 $600 bought you a top of the line GPU model(or very close to it) from either AMD or NVidia. That same $600 will barely get you a bottom tier model NOW. The top tier model? $2500 MSRP. Good luck getting it at that price though.

SO saying that spending $250 now was like spending $200 then is not only historically flawed, but is lacking any common sense whatsoever.

Using CPI as a yardstick, we're up 24% since 2012. That's remarkably close to the 200=250 that @Valantar quoted. We're at bit over 8% in just the last 12 months, however.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Using CPI as a yardstick, we're up 24% since 2012. That's remarkably close to the 200=250 that @Valantar quoted.

Those numbers are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for wage earner income, not for consumer goods costs. Wages have in no way kept up with the increase of cost in consumer goods.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Those numbers are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for wage earner income, not for consumer goods costs. Wages have in no way kept up with the increase of cost in consumer goods.

If you'd rather go by PCPEI, that's 20%. I'm not an economist, and am just Googling this shit. Should you know of any indices that claim greater overall inflation, feel free to share.

 

[lexluthermiester]

If you'd rather go by PCPEI, that's 20%. I'm not an economist, and am just Googling this shit. Should you know of any indices that claim greater overall inflation, feel free to share.

Even in that graph, you'll notice the very sharp upturn since 2020. I'm going based on business costs and expenditures for my shop and my home. Food and cosumables costs have increased 35% over the last year alone for much of what we buy. Many supplies purchased for my shop have jumped as much as 45%. The previous treads are effectively null due to the effect of the pandemic.

 

[Palladium]

Those numbers are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for wage earner income, not for consumer goods costs. Wages have in no way kept up with the increase of cost in consumer goods.

Official CPI numbers has always been whitewashed garbage. Some guy I know off had his delivery pizza with a shrinkflation rate of 100% in a single hike alone last year.

 

[Valantar]

What? I was being nice with my response earlier. But if you want to poke the bear...

You said...

...this, then followed with...

...this. Which is completely incorrect. For example: In 2012, $0.69 bought a hardshell Taco at Taco Bell. Now that same menu item is $1.59. In 2012, a quart of motor oil was $3.99, now that same brand is $7.49. In 2012 a can of Progresso Clam Chowder soup was $.89, now it's $1.79. Picking up on a theme yet? You suggested that general prices have gone up only 20%. That is utter hogwash. Prices have jumped up 35% in that last 6 months ALONE, to say nothing of the previous decade..

You understand that singular examples do not constitute an overall picture, right? That such a thing as outliers exists?

If you fail to understand the context of my point, that failure is on you, not me.

If you fail to understand the content of the post you're trying to contradict, that is on you, not me.

Now lets focus on that same idea applied in context to the defined topic of this thread. GPUs price are staggeringly more expensive. In 2012 $600 bought you a top of the line GPU model(or very close to it) from either AMD or NVidia. That same $600 will barely get you a bottom tier model NOW. The top tier model? $2500 MSRP. Good luck getting it at that price though.

SO saying that spending $250 now was like spending $200 then is not only historically flawed, but is lacking any common sense whatsoever.

Again: relevance? This is an outlier, and not in and of itself relevant to either inflation nor CPI.

EDIT;
It has been suggested that you being in the EU(Sweden), things might be different and that we might be looking at the same world from very different perspectives. It is known that things in the EU are different from things in North America.

I was talking about US dollars and the US CPI specifically.

Those numbers are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for wage earner income, not for consumer goods costs. Wages have in no way kept up with the increase of cost in consumer goods.

To quote the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

It has nothing to do with wage earner income, but is a measure of prices for a (nominally representative selection of) consumer goods. You can critique the selection (which often has severe flaws), you can critique how such statistics minimize the effects of statistical outliers, but you can't refute that for what they measure, they're overall correct, and they're typically a decent-enough guideline for overall impressions, even if they will necessarily be wrong in a lot of cases. That's what happens when you try to present an averaged measure for something supposedly applying to 300+ million people.

Even in that graph, you'll notice the very sharp upturn since 2020.

Have I or anyone else here claimed otherwise? Last I checked, if you're looking at changes 2012-2022, anything happening in 2020 is included in that.

I'm going based on business costs and expenditures for my shop and my home.

Yet you responded to a post specifically mentioning

inflation and cost of living increases

You are literally not talking about the same thing as me. At all.

Food and cosumables costs have increased 35% over the last year alone for much of what we buy. Many supplies purchased for my shop have jumped as much as 45%. The previous treads are effectively null due to the effect of the pandemic.

Your anecdotal data does not disprove the statistical validity of actual large-scale measurements of the cost of living. You might be in an outlier group (or several - geographic, socioeconomic, hobbies and activities, etc.); you might be selectively noticing outliers that have increased more than the average, etc. I have no way of (or interest in) knowing this, but again: your experience does not contradict the validity of the statistics. Nor was I talking about you. The two are not in conflict - an average measurement is an average, and there are always outliers in all directions. Being an outlier sucks, but that doesn't make the average wrong.

So: the next time you make a knee-jerk "nuh-huh!" reaction to a post, maybe make sure that you're actually talking about the same thing the person you're responding to is talking about? Without that, dialogue is literally impossible.

One correction I could make: I could have combined CPI and inflation, which would have taken that ~$250 number to something more akin to ~$310 in the same period (2012-2022) (based on the US City average CPI data for January 2012 vs. 2022 (a 24,2% increase). While this would push my numbers upwards by a bit, it wouldn't materially change what I said.

The CPI also clearly shows the dramatic increases in costs over the past year - the CPI increased as much from January 2021 to January 2022 as it did from September 2016 to January 2021. But again: that's included in the 2012-2022 change.