Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[dragontamer5788]

That would really require the state going tits up, which given the right country, could happen, but it wouldn't really be the currencies fault.

If the state controls the chain, then you can only blame the state.

El Salvador comes to mind.

They don't control BTC at all, and yet they've bet their financial system on it. It seems like a stupid move to me.

 

[R-T-B]

El Salvador comes to mind.

They don't control BTC at all, and yet they've bet their financial system on it. It seems like a stupid move to me.

I was thinking more along the lines of state issued state sponsored currency stablecoins or similar, but you are correct of course. Also the petro comes to mind.

 

[Bomby569]

i only found this today, but oh boy it's 6 months old, and anyone that heard this crap and has a working brain would immediately call this a Ponzi scheme.
So there is this box that does nothing, and one guy puts money, the other guy puts money, and so on

This people are what is killing crypto. Well they and the brainless that give them money.

 

[ThrashZone]

Hi,
Yep never under estimate some one else's stupidity

 

[RandallFlagg]

i only found this today, but oh boy it's 6 months old, and anyone that heard this crap and has a working brain would immediately call this a Ponzi scheme.
So there is this box that does nothing, and one guy puts money, the other guy puts money, and so on

This people are what is killing crypto. Well they and the brainless that give them money.

I heard there was an algorithm or something too complicated for mortals to understand that made it not a ponzi scheme.... /s

 

[skates]

Of course I read the articles. Of course I know what I am talking about, because I worked in these fields. Higher interest rates should reduce money supply. They have an inverse relationship. I am not saying you are wrong, but the other guy is also not wrong. There is no clear cut answer to the question.

This argument has been going on for several thousand years now and still no clear answer after all that time. As a dumdink, what would happen if the fed couldn't print new money for 6 months? Apocalypse Now or something else?

I heard there was an algorithm or something too complicated for mortals to understand that made it not a ponzi scheme.... /s

Now I know where my taxes went.

 

[Vario]

The best crypto investment right now is probably buying coinbase stock and not buying actual crypto.

Best crypto gamble. Wouldn't hold this as an investment long term. For all you know, coinbase is equally sleazy.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

This argument has been going on for several thousand years now and still no clear answer after all that time. As a dumdink, what would happen if the fed couldn't print new money for 6 months? Apocalypse Now or something else?

Also a dumdink, but a simplified article I read not long ago said that most money created isn't due to the Fed, but by regular day-to-day transactions (loans, interest, financial instruments) in the regular creation of value in goods and services. The Fed can influence this by adjusting rates, and the Treasury can generate more by issuing bonds.

 

[Fasola]

This is one hell of a rabbit hole.

 

[Bomby569]

This is one hell of a rabbit hole.

Time and time again, you see this incredibly wealthy, successful people going all out on something that is the biggest pile of dog shit, and i wonder how are they so successful and rich.

And sure some could trick a lot of people, but this are people that are well connected, that have research teams of specialists, and yet we have them backing charlatans, pyramid schemes, snake oil vendors, etc... and at the same time we always find out someone that isn't particularly special, not einstein level smart, not rich, don't have a team of specialists, etc.. and have called this crap out for some time.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Genesis’ Crypto-Lending Unit Is Halting Customer Withdrawals in Wake of FTX Collapse

The unit, known as Genesis Global Capital, serves an institutional client base and had $2.8 billion in total active loans as of the end of the third quarter of 2022.

www.coindesk.com

Problems stirring up at Genesis.

 

[Bomby569]

Genesis’ Crypto-Lending Unit Is Halting Customer Withdrawals in Wake of FTX Collapse

The unit, known as Genesis Global Capital, serves an institutional client base and had $2.8 billion in total active loans as of the end of the third quarter of 2022.

www.coindesk.com

Problems stirring up at Genesis.

"The decision follows a punishing period for the industry after this month’s implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto companies FTX and Alameda Research. Islim said FTX’s dramatic fall had spurred withdrawal requests that exceeded Genesis’ current liquidity."

domino effect

 

[RandallFlagg]

More dominos :

"BlockFi paused withdrawals and limited activity on its platform last week, saying it couldn’t operate business as usual given the uncertainty about FTX. BlockFi is now planning to lay off some of its workers while the troubled firm prepares for a possible chapter 11 itself, people familiar with the matter said."

BlockFi Prepares for Potential Bankruptcy as Crypto Contagion Spreads

BlockFi, financially entangled with the now-bankrupt FTX, is planning to lay off workers and exploring a bankruptcy filing itself, people familiar say.

www.wsj.com

 

[dragontamer5788]

domino effect

It's likes it's 2007 all over again. Toxic assets at Bear Sterns causes problems at Lehman Brothers, causing problems at JP Morgan.

Except it's all isolated to Crypto this time.

------

Sounds like Genesis has connections to Coinbase, Grayscale (aka GBTC) and other major players.

EDIT: Here comes Gemini.

Winklevosses’ Gemini Delays Withdrawals on Lending Program

Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, said redemptions by customers for its Earn program are being delayed after its partner in the product, Genesis Global, paused withdrawals on its borrowing platform amid a liquidity crunch.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Vario]

Time and time again, you see this incredibly wealthy, successful people going all out on something that is the biggest pile of dog shit, and i wonder how are they so successful and rich.

And sure some could trick a lot of people, but this are people that are well connected, that have research teams of specialists, and yet we have them backing charlatans, pyramid schemes, snake oil vendors, etc... and at the same time we always find out someone that isn't particularly special, not einstein level smart, not rich, don't have a team of specialists, etc.. and have called this crap out for some time.

Not only describes crypto but Theranos as well.

 

[80-watt Hamster]

Not only describes crypto but Theranos as well.

The historical examples are countless. Everyone with a stake has an interest, whether financial or psychological, to keep the illusion going. So it feeds on itself until outside forces inevitably locate the weakness in the structure, lean on it a little, and the whole thing collapses.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Sometimes things are exactly what they appear to be.



"The declaration made in a Delaware bankruptcy court on Thursday marks the first attempt by FTX’s new chief executive, appointed shortly before the company filed for bankruptcy, to explain what went wrong at the company. John J. Ray, who led the liquidation of Enron Corp.’s assets in the years after the company collapsed, took over as CEO last week and his first official act was to authorize the company’s bankruptcy filing, he said.

“Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,” Mr. Ray said in the court filing. “From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.”'

FTX’s New CEO Faults Lax Oversight in Bankruptcy Filing

FTX Trading’s new chief executive said lax controls over the company’s billions in cash and cryptocurrency assets under the leadership of Sam Bankman-Fried has left current management scrambling to establish just how much money the bankrupt crypto platform has today.

www.wsj.com

 

[dragontamer5788]

FTX Contagion

Charting the FTX collapse.

www.mollywhite.net

It sounds like this chart is updating frequently. Here's what it says today.

 

[mb194dc]

What a mess! Pretty incredible quotes there.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Really good diagram @dragontamer5788

Given what is coming out about how FTX was run, it's hard to imagine the incompetence that must exist in those Venture Capital and Hedge funds, and crypto exchanges.

They obviously did no due diligence in regards to FTX.

 

[dragontamer5788]

They obviously did no due diligence in regards to FTX.

FTX's new CEO had the following to say:

Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here. From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.

The Debtors did not have the type of disbursement controls that I believe are appropriate for a business enterprise. For example, employees of the FTX Group submitted payment requests through an on-line ‘chat’ platform where a disparate group of supervisors approved disbursements by responding with personalized emojis.

Note. FTX's new CEO is an expert in leading companies through bankruptcy. In particular, John J. Ray III captained Enron through its bankruptcy. So when this dude says "This is unprecedented", it means "This is worse than Enron".

Obviously, SBF was the previous CEO, but he doesn't have any experience navigating bankruptcy issues. FTX was forced to find an expert bankruptcy CEO, and it does seem like John Ray III is a good pick. But... Ray does not like what he sees of this company from his first day on the job.

Further notes:

The FTX Group did not keep appropriate books and records, or security controls, with respect to its digital assets. Mr. Bankman-Fried and [Alameda co-founder Gary] Wang controlled access to digital assets of the main businesses in the FTX Group (with the exception of LedgerX, regulated by the CFTC, and certain other regulated and/or licensed subsidiaries). Unacceptable management practices included the use of an unsecured group email account as the root user to access confidential private keys and critically sensitive data for the FTX Group companies around the world, the absence of daily reconciliation of positions on the blockchain, the use of software to conceal the misuse of customer funds, the secret exemption of Alameda from certain aspects of FTX.com’s auto-liquidation protocol, and the absence of independent governance as between Alameda (owned 90% by Mr. Bankman-Fried and 10% by Mr. Wang) and the Dotcom Silo (in which third parties had invested).

From Matt Levine (Bloomberg Columnist).

 

[RandallFlagg]

FTX's new CEO had the following to say:





Note. FTX's new CEO is an expert in leading companies through bankruptcy. In particular, John J. Ray III captained Enron through its bankruptcy. So when this dude says "This is unprecedented", it means "This is worse than Enron".

Obviously, SBF was the previous CEO, but he doesn't have any experience navigating bankruptcy issues. FTX was forced to find an expert bankruptcy CEO, and it does seem like John Ray III is a good pick. But... Ray does not like what he sees of this company from his first day on the job.

Further notes:



From Matt Levine (Bloomberg Columnist).

I don't think the people 'leading' FTX knew anything.

First I saw where he was using Excel to track where FTX's money was. One of the investments on the spreadsheet included betting on Trump's election odds..

Now we have them using chat / emoji's for payments to employees?

This sounds like an 8th grader was running the company.

The thing that bothers me is that multiple hedge funds and other crypto exchanges invested in them. This means they did literally zero due diligence, must be making investment decisions based on media headlines.

This doesn't even begin to rise to something like Bernie Madoff, who had elaborate and complex financials setup to obscure what he was doing. I've seen that comparison made but it is a false one. People can be excused for not noticing that.

If FTX and the companies that invested in it is any reflection of what is out there in the crypto space, and god forbid anywhere else, there is far far more pain to come.

 

[dragontamer5788]

First I saw where he was using Excel to track where FTX's money was. One of the investments on the spreadsheet included betting on Trump's election odds..

There's a line called "TRUMPLOSE" in their asset sheet. Sorry, did I say asset sheet? A glorified Excel Spreadsheet that's worse than my personal finance notebook.

I'm not sure if anyone really knows what that line means (though it has been hypothesized that its Trump's election odds / online betting market). Who knows? This whole thing is a mess. But yeah, felt like giving some context over that particular thing.

Everything here is guesswork, because FTX themselves don't understand what they've written down here.

--------

EDIT: The main issue is that FTX may have an asset sheet, but they don't actually have a liabilities sheet. They don't actually know what they owe others. So as shoddy as their "assets" sheet is, they at least have a general idea of who owes them money. I don't think anyone really knows how far-reaching this will go. Its actually a big mystery, and will remain so.

The WRS Silo Debtors are expected to have significant liabilities arising from crypto assets deposited by customers through the FTX US platform. However, such liabilities are not reflected in the financial statements prepared while these companies were under the control of Mr. Bankman-Fried.

 

[RandallFlagg]

There's a line called "TRUMPLOSE" in their asset sheet. Sorry, did I say asset sheet? A glorified Excel Spreadsheet that's worse than my personal finance notebook.

I'm not sure if anyone really knows what that line means (though it has been hypothesized that its Trump's election odds / online betting market). Who knows? This whole thing is a mess. But yeah, felt like giving some context over that particular thing.

Everything here is guesswork, because FTX themselves don't understand what they've written down here.

--------

EDIT: The main issue is that FTX may have an asset sheet, but they don't actually have a liabilities sheet. They don't actually know what they owe others. So as shoddy as their "assets" sheet is, they at least have a general idea of who owes them money. I don't think anyone really knows how far-reaching this will go. Its actually a big mystery, and will remain so.

Just to note, that Excel spreadsheet was what he did with his 'depositors' 'money'.

Could cause contagion to non crypto spaces.

Specifically from the slide you posted :

OMG LOL!!!!!!

This just keeps getting better!!!!!

• FTX in a bombshell emergency court filing Thursday said evidence suggests Bahamian regulators directed former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to gain “unauthorized access” to FTX systems to obtain digital assets belonging to the company after it had filed for bankruptcy protection.
• The filing said that Bankman-Fried transferred those assets to the custody of the Bahamian government.
• The accusations were made by FTX in a motion in the United States Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. In that motion, FTX said the alleged conduct puts “In serious question” a request by Bahamian regulators for recognition as liquidators in the bankruptcy.

FTX tells court it has evidence Sam Bankman-Fried transferred assets to Bahamas government custody after bankruptcy

FTX lawyers said Bahamian regulators directed Sam Bankman-Fried to transfer digital assets to the custody of the Bahamian government.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Outback Bronze]

This sounds like an 8th grader was running the company.

Lol, sounds about right!